32 lines
1.3 KiB
TypeScript
32 lines
1.3 KiB
TypeScript
import { NCAABasketballSimulator } from "./ncaa-basketball-simulator";
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import type { Simulator, SimulationResult } from "./types";
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import { optionalPositiveNumber } from "./config-access";
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const KENPOM_SCALE_FACTOR = 7.5;
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/**
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* NCAAM neutral-court win probability using a KenPom-like adjusted efficiency
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* margin. Ratings are season-scoped simulator inputs, not hardcoded data.
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*/
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export function kenpomWinProbability(netrtgA: number, netrtgB: number): number {
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return 1 / (1 + Math.exp(-(netrtgA - netrtgB) / KENPOM_SCALE_FACTOR));
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}
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function kenpomWinProbabilityWithScale(scaleFactor: number): (netrtgA: number, netrtgB: number) => number {
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return (netrtgA, netrtgB) => 1 / (1 + Math.exp(-(netrtgA - netrtgB) / scaleFactor));
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}
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export class NCAAMSimulator implements Simulator {
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private readonly simulator = new NCAABasketballSimulator({
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source: "ncaam_bracket_rating",
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missingRatingName: "KenPom-like rating",
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selectionRatingDivisor: 8,
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winProbability: kenpomWinProbability,
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getWinProbability: (config) =>
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kenpomWinProbabilityWithScale(optionalPositiveNumber(config.ratingScaleFactor, KENPOM_SCALE_FACTOR)),
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});
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simulate(sportsSeasonId: string): Promise<SimulationResult[]> {
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return this.simulator.simulate(sportsSeasonId);
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}
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}
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