Implements a Monte Carlo simulator for men's/women's tennis seasons scored on the qualifying_points pattern. Simulates all 4 Grand Slam majors (Australian Open, French Open, Wimbledon, US Open) using surface-specific Elo ratings and ATP/WTA world rankings for seeding. New table: participant_surface_elos — one row per (participant, season) storing worldRanking, eloHard, eloClay, eloGrass. Key design decisions: - Seeding uses ATP/WTA world ranking (not Elo), matching real draw procedure - Top 32 seeded with standard slot placement (1→0, 2→64, 3-4→quarters, etc.) - QP per round with tie-splitting pre-applied: W=20, F=14, SF=9, QF=4, R16=1.5 - Completed majors read actual qualifyingPointsAwarded from eventResults - 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations; column sums naturally 1.0 (no normalization) Admin UI at /admin/sports-seasons/:id/surface-elo: - 5-column grid (Player | Rank | Hard | Clay | Grass) - Bulk import: "Name, ranking, hardElo, clayElo, grassElo" one per line - Fuzzy name matching (bigram Dice coefficient) with "Did you mean?" suggestions - Inline participant creation for unmatched names via useFetcher - Saves Elos and auto-runs simulation on submit Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
129 lines
4.1 KiB
TypeScript
129 lines
4.1 KiB
TypeScript
/**
|
|
* Model for Participant Surface Elos
|
|
*
|
|
* Manages surface-specific Elo ratings for tennis (and future surface-based sports).
|
|
* Each participant in a sports season can have separate Elo ratings for hard,
|
|
* clay, and grass courts.
|
|
*/
|
|
|
|
import { database } from "~/database/context";
|
|
import { participantSurfaceElos, participants } from "~/database/schema";
|
|
import { eq, sql } from "drizzle-orm";
|
|
|
|
export type CourtSurface = "hard" | "clay" | "grass";
|
|
|
|
export interface SurfaceEloRecord {
|
|
id: string;
|
|
participantId: string;
|
|
sportsSeasonId: string;
|
|
worldRanking: number | null;
|
|
eloHard: number | null;
|
|
eloClay: number | null;
|
|
eloGrass: number | null;
|
|
updatedAt: Date;
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
export interface SurfaceEloWithName extends SurfaceEloRecord {
|
|
participantName: string;
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
export interface SurfaceEloInput {
|
|
participantId: string;
|
|
sportsSeasonId: string;
|
|
worldRanking?: number | null;
|
|
eloHard?: number | null;
|
|
eloClay?: number | null;
|
|
eloGrass?: number | null;
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
/**
|
|
* Get all surface Elo records for a sports season, joined with participant names.
|
|
* Returns one record per participant (participants with no Elo record are excluded).
|
|
*/
|
|
export async function getSurfaceElosForSeason(
|
|
sportsSeasonId: string
|
|
): Promise<SurfaceEloWithName[]> {
|
|
const db = database();
|
|
const rows = await db
|
|
.select({
|
|
id: participantSurfaceElos.id,
|
|
participantId: participantSurfaceElos.participantId,
|
|
sportsSeasonId: participantSurfaceElos.sportsSeasonId,
|
|
worldRanking: participantSurfaceElos.worldRanking,
|
|
eloHard: participantSurfaceElos.eloHard,
|
|
eloClay: participantSurfaceElos.eloClay,
|
|
eloGrass: participantSurfaceElos.eloGrass,
|
|
updatedAt: participantSurfaceElos.updatedAt,
|
|
participantName: participants.name,
|
|
})
|
|
.from(participantSurfaceElos)
|
|
.innerJoin(participants, eq(participantSurfaceElos.participantId, participants.id))
|
|
.where(eq(participantSurfaceElos.sportsSeasonId, sportsSeasonId))
|
|
.orderBy(participants.name);
|
|
|
|
return rows;
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
/**
|
|
* Upsert surface Elo ratings for a batch of participants.
|
|
* Uses INSERT ... ON CONFLICT DO UPDATE so all three surface columns are
|
|
* overwritten atomically — the admin always submits all three values.
|
|
*/
|
|
export async function batchUpsertSurfaceElos(
|
|
inputs: SurfaceEloInput[]
|
|
): Promise<void> {
|
|
if (inputs.length === 0) return;
|
|
const db = database();
|
|
const now = new Date();
|
|
|
|
await db
|
|
.insert(participantSurfaceElos)
|
|
.values(
|
|
inputs.map(({ participantId, sportsSeasonId, worldRanking, eloHard, eloClay, eloGrass }) => ({
|
|
participantId,
|
|
sportsSeasonId,
|
|
worldRanking: worldRanking ?? null,
|
|
eloHard: eloHard ?? null,
|
|
eloClay: eloClay ?? null,
|
|
eloGrass: eloGrass ?? null,
|
|
updatedAt: now,
|
|
}))
|
|
)
|
|
.onConflictDoUpdate({
|
|
target: [participantSurfaceElos.participantId, participantSurfaceElos.sportsSeasonId],
|
|
set: {
|
|
worldRanking: sql`excluded.world_ranking`,
|
|
eloHard: sql`excluded.elo_hard`,
|
|
eloClay: sql`excluded.elo_clay`,
|
|
eloGrass: sql`excluded.elo_grass`,
|
|
updatedAt: sql`excluded.updated_at`,
|
|
},
|
|
});
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
/**
|
|
* Returns a Map from participantId to surface Elos for use in the simulator.
|
|
* Participants with no record are absent from the map (simulator falls back to 1500).
|
|
*/
|
|
export async function getSurfaceEloMap(
|
|
sportsSeasonId: string
|
|
): Promise<Map<string, { worldRanking: number | null; eloHard: number | null; eloClay: number | null; eloGrass: number | null }>> {
|
|
const db = database();
|
|
const rows = await db
|
|
.select({
|
|
participantId: participantSurfaceElos.participantId,
|
|
worldRanking: participantSurfaceElos.worldRanking,
|
|
eloHard: participantSurfaceElos.eloHard,
|
|
eloClay: participantSurfaceElos.eloClay,
|
|
eloGrass: participantSurfaceElos.eloGrass,
|
|
})
|
|
.from(participantSurfaceElos)
|
|
.where(eq(participantSurfaceElos.sportsSeasonId, sportsSeasonId));
|
|
|
|
return new Map(rows.map((r) => [r.participantId, {
|
|
worldRanking: r.worldRanking,
|
|
eloHard: r.eloHard,
|
|
eloClay: r.eloClay,
|
|
eloGrass: r.eloGrass,
|
|
}]));
|
|
}
|