7ec17e417d
After an LLWS simulation, a team locked into the 5th-6th tier and one locked into the 7th-8th tier both showed 20 points EV. They should show 25 and 15. The simulator and calculateEV were both right. A team locked into the 5-6 tier comes out of llws-simulator at probFifth = probSixth = 0.5, and against DEFAULT_SCORING_RULES (100/70/50/40/25/25/15/15) that is 25 — matching calculateBracketPoints, which already knows llws_20 splits 5-8 into two tiers. The Admin -> Expected Values page just wasn't using that table. It hardcoded its own stale copy: const SCORING = [100, 70, 45, 45, 20, 20, 20, 20] as const; 0.5*20 + 0.5*20 = 20 for either tier. It is not LLWS-specific. Four places carried that same stale table, and it stayed invisible because a standard single-elimination bracket puts all four quarterfinal losers in one tier worth avg(25,25,15,15) = 20 — the same number. It only diverges for the templates that split 5-8 (llws_20, afl_10) and those with a distinct 3rd/4th (llws_20, fifa_48, where 45/45 should be 50/40). Two of the four *persist* EVs computed that way, so the wrong values reached the database: - expected-values.tsx displayed EV, the total, and the sort order - expected-values.server manual EV entry, written to expected_value - golf-skills.tsx simulation EVs + snapshots, written - surface-elo.tsx simulation EVs + snapshots, written All four now use the shared DEFAULT_SCORING_RULES. probability-updater had a fourth inline copy with the right values; it is folded in too so there is one table left. The page's 340 total-EV invariant is unchanged — both tables sum to 340. A second path collapses the same two tiers, this time in real fantasy points. calculateBracketPoints falls back to the flat avg([5,6,7,8]) when bracketTemplateId is null, and four call sites resolved the template by taking an arbitrary scoringEvents row for the sports season — unordered, and not filtered to rows that actually carry a template. A season can own several events (a bracket plus schedule events, or a re-created bracket beside a stale one), so a null row wins at random and llws_20 is lost. New getBracketTemplateIdsForSportsSeasons in models/bracket-template.ts filters to events with a template and takes the most recent, the same rule llws-simulator uses to pick its bracket event; standings, calculateTeamScore, calculateTeamProjectedScore and getDraftedParticipantsWithPoints all go through it. Tests: evFromProbs pinned to 25 / 15 / 20-for-a-single-5-8-tier and the 340 invariant; the new lookup against a mixed set of events; and two llws-simulator tests that play out a full U.S. side so a team really is locked into each tier and must come out at exactly 50/50 across it. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01EmUdy42Rpgx9qZTnpQwirz
66 lines
2.7 KiB
TypeScript
66 lines
2.7 KiB
TypeScript
import type { Route } from "./+types/admin.sports-seasons.$id.expected-values";
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import { logger } from "~/lib/logger";
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import { findSportsSeasonById } from "~/models/sports-season";
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import { findParticipantsBySportsSeasonId } from "~/models/season-participant";
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import {
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batchUpsertParticipantEVs,
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getAllParticipantEVsForSeason
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} from "~/models/participant-expected-value";
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import { DEFAULT_SCORING_RULES } from "~/lib/scoring-types";
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export async function loader({ params }: Route.LoaderArgs) {
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const sportsSeason = await findSportsSeasonById(params.id);
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if (!sportsSeason) {
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throw new Response("Sports season not found", { status: 404 });
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}
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const participants = await findParticipantsBySportsSeasonId(params.id);
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const existingEVs = await getAllParticipantEVsForSeason(params.id);
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// Create a map of participant ID to EV data
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const evMap = new Map(existingEVs.map(ev => [ev.participantId, ev]));
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return {
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sportsSeason: sportsSeason as typeof sportsSeason & { sport: { id: string; name: string; type: string; slug: string } },
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participants,
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existingEVs: evMap,
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};
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}
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export async function action({ request, params }: Route.ActionArgs) {
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const formData = await request.formData();
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const participants = await findParticipantsBySportsSeasonId(params.id);
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const participantIds = participants.map((p: { id: string }) => p.id);
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try {
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const inputs = participantIds.map((participantId) => ({
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participantId,
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sportsSeasonId: params.id,
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probabilities: {
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probFirst: parseFloat(formData.get(`probFirst_${participantId}`) as string || "0") / 100,
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probSecond: parseFloat(formData.get(`probSecond_${participantId}`) as string || "0") / 100,
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probThird: parseFloat(formData.get(`probThird_${participantId}`) as string || "0") / 100,
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probFourth: parseFloat(formData.get(`probFourth_${participantId}`) as string || "0") / 100,
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probFifth: parseFloat(formData.get(`probFifth_${participantId}`) as string || "0") / 100,
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probSixth: parseFloat(formData.get(`probSixth_${participantId}`) as string || "0") / 100,
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probSeventh: parseFloat(formData.get(`probSeventh_${participantId}`) as string || "0") / 100,
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probEighth: parseFloat(formData.get(`probEighth_${participantId}`) as string || "0") / 100,
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},
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scoringRules: DEFAULT_SCORING_RULES,
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source: "manual" as const,
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}));
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const results = await batchUpsertParticipantEVs(inputs);
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const totalEV = results.reduce((sum, r) => sum + parseFloat(r.expectedValue), 0);
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return { success: true, totalEV };
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} catch (error) {
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logger.error("Error saving probabilities:", error);
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return {
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error: error instanceof Error ? error.message : "Failed to save probabilities"
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};
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}
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}
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