- SnookerSimulator: Monte Carlo simulation of the 32-player World Championship bracket using per-frame Bernoulli win probabilities derived from Elo ratings (ELO_DIVISOR=700). Two paths: bracket- populated (respects completed matches) and pre-bracket (simulates qualifying, then seeds full draw). - Admin route /sports-seasons/:id/elo-ratings: bulk-import and per- player Elo entry with fuzzy name matching; saves ratings and auto- runs the simulation in one action. - schema: add snooker_bracket simulator type, source_elo column on participant_expected_values, unique index on (participant_id, sports_season_id). - Fix batchSaveSourceElos to use INSERT ... ON CONFLICT DO UPDATE instead of N+1 SELECT+UPDATE loop. - Fix existingElos returned as plain Record (Map doesn't survive JSON serialization through useLoaderData). - Fix "How It Works" formula to show correct divisor (700, not 400). Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
422 lines
16 KiB
TypeScript
422 lines
16 KiB
TypeScript
import { Form, redirect, useLoaderData, useActionData, useNavigation } from 'react-router';
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import type { Route } from './+types/admin.sports-seasons.$id.elo-ratings';
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import { logger } from '~/lib/logger';
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import { findSportsSeasonById, updateSportsSeason } from '~/models/sports-season';
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import { findParticipantsBySportsSeasonId } from '~/models/participant';
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import {
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getAllParticipantEVsForSeason,
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batchSaveSourceElos,
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batchUpsertParticipantEVs,
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} from '~/models/participant-expected-value';
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import { batchUpsertParticipantEvSnapshots } from '~/models/ev-snapshot';
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import { getSimulator, type SimulatorType } from '~/services/simulations/registry';
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import { calculateEV, type ScoringRules } from '~/services/ev-calculator';
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import { recalculateStandings } from '~/models/scoring-calculator';
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import { database } from '~/database/context';
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import * as schema from '~/database/schema';
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import { eq } from 'drizzle-orm';
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import { Button } from '~/components/ui/button';
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import { Input } from '~/components/ui/input';
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import { Label } from '~/components/ui/label';
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import { Textarea } from '~/components/ui/textarea';
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import {
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Card,
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CardContent,
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CardDescription,
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CardHeader,
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CardTitle,
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} from '~/components/ui/card';
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import { useState } from 'react';
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import { Loader2, CheckCircle2, AlertCircle } from 'lucide-react';
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const DEFAULT_SCORING_RULES: ScoringRules = {
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pointsFor1st: 100,
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pointsFor2nd: 70,
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pointsFor3rd: 45,
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pointsFor4th: 45,
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pointsFor5th: 20,
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pointsFor6th: 20,
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pointsFor7th: 20,
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pointsFor8th: 20,
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};
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export function meta({ data }: Route.MetaArgs): Route.MetaDescriptors {
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return [{ title: `Elo Ratings — ${data?.sportsSeason?.name ?? "Sports Season"} - Brackt Admin` }];
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}
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export async function loader({ params }: Route.LoaderArgs) {
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const sportsSeasonId = params.id;
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const sportsSeason = await findSportsSeasonById(sportsSeasonId);
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if (!sportsSeason) {
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throw new Response('Sports season not found', { status: 404 });
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}
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const participants = await findParticipantsBySportsSeasonId(sportsSeasonId);
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const existingEVs = await getAllParticipantEVsForSeason(sportsSeasonId);
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const existingElos: Record<string, number> = {};
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for (const ev of existingEVs) {
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if (ev.sourceElo != null) {
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existingElos[ev.participantId] = ev.sourceElo;
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}
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}
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return { sportsSeason, participants, existingElos };
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}
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interface ActionData {
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success?: boolean;
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message?: string;
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}
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export async function action({ request, params }: Route.ActionArgs) {
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const sportsSeasonId = params.id;
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const formData = await request.formData();
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const sportsSeason = await findSportsSeasonById(sportsSeasonId);
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if (!sportsSeason) {
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return { success: false, message: 'Sports season not found' };
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}
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const participants = await findParticipantsBySportsSeasonId(sportsSeasonId);
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// Parse Elo ratings from form
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const eloInputs: Array<{ participantId: string; sportsSeasonId: string; sourceElo: number }> = [];
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for (const participant of participants) {
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const val = formData.get(`elo_${participant.id}`) as string;
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if (val && val.trim() !== '') {
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const elo = Number(val);
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if (!isNaN(elo) && elo > 0) {
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eloInputs.push({ participantId: participant.id, sportsSeasonId, sourceElo: elo });
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}
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}
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}
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if (eloInputs.length === 0) {
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return { success: false, message: 'Please enter an Elo rating for at least one participant' };
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}
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if (!sportsSeason.sport?.simulatorType) {
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return { success: false, message: 'This sport has no simulator type configured. Set one on the sport in the admin panel.' };
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}
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if (sportsSeason.simulationStatus === 'running') {
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return { success: false, message: 'A simulation is already running. Please wait.' };
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}
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// Persist Elo ratings
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await batchSaveSourceElos(eloInputs);
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// Auto-run simulation
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await updateSportsSeason(sportsSeasonId, { simulationStatus: 'running' });
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try {
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const simulator = getSimulator(sportsSeason.sport.simulatorType as SimulatorType);
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const results = await simulator.simulate(sportsSeasonId);
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if (results.length === 0) {
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throw new Error('Simulation returned no results.');
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}
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// Zero out any participants not in simulation results
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const allParticipants = participants;
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const simulatedIds = new Set(results.map(r => r.participantId));
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const ZERO_PROBS = {
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probFirst: 0, probSecond: 0, probThird: 0, probFourth: 0,
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probFifth: 0, probSixth: 0, probSeventh: 0, probEighth: 0,
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};
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const evInputs = [
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...results.map(r => ({
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participantId: r.participantId,
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sportsSeasonId,
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probabilities: r.probabilities,
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scoringRules: DEFAULT_SCORING_RULES,
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source: 'elo_simulation' as const,
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})),
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...allParticipants
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.filter(p => !simulatedIds.has(p.id))
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.map(p => ({
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participantId: p.id,
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sportsSeasonId,
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probabilities: ZERO_PROBS,
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scoringRules: DEFAULT_SCORING_RULES,
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source: 'elo_simulation' as const,
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})),
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];
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await batchUpsertParticipantEVs(evInputs);
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// Refresh projected points in team standings
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const seasonSports = await database().query.seasonSports.findMany({
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where: eq(schema.seasonSports.sportsSeasonId, sportsSeasonId),
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});
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await Promise.all(seasonSports.map(({ seasonId }) => recalculateStandings(seasonId)));
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// EV snapshot
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const today = new Date().toISOString().slice(0, 10);
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await batchUpsertParticipantEvSnapshots(
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results.map(r => ({
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participantId: r.participantId,
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sportsSeasonId,
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snapshotDate: today,
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probFirst: r.probabilities.probFirst,
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probSecond: r.probabilities.probSecond,
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probThird: r.probabilities.probThird,
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probFourth: r.probabilities.probFourth,
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probFifth: r.probabilities.probFifth,
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probSixth: r.probabilities.probSixth,
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probSeventh: r.probabilities.probSeventh,
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probEighth: r.probabilities.probEighth,
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calculatedEV: calculateEV(r.probabilities, DEFAULT_SCORING_RULES),
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source: r.source,
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}))
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);
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await updateSportsSeason(sportsSeasonId, { simulationStatus: 'idle' });
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} catch (error) {
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await updateSportsSeason(sportsSeasonId, { simulationStatus: 'failed' });
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logger.error('Error running snooker simulation:', error);
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return {
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success: false,
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message: error instanceof Error ? error.message : 'Simulation failed',
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};
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}
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return redirect(`/admin/sports-seasons/${sportsSeasonId}/expected-values`);
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}
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function normalizeName(name: string): string {
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return name.toLowerCase().replace(/[^a-z0-9\s]/g, '').replace(/\s+/g, ' ').trim();
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}
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export default function AdminSportsSeasonEloRatings() {
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const { sportsSeason, participants, existingElos } = useLoaderData<typeof loader>();
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const actionData = useActionData<ActionData>();
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const navigation = useNavigation();
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const [eloValues, setEloValues] = useState<Record<string, string>>(() => {
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const initial: Record<string, string> = {};
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participants.forEach(p => {
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const existing = existingElos[p.id];
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if (existing !== undefined && existing !== null) {
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initial[p.id] = existing.toString();
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}
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});
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return initial;
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});
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// Bulk import state: "Player Name, 2450" format one per line
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const [bulkText, setBulkText] = useState('');
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const [parseResults, setParseResults] = useState<{
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matched: Array<{ participantId: string; name: string; elo: number; inputName: string }>;
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unmatched: Array<{ inputName: string; elo: number }>;
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} | null>(null);
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function findParticipantMatch(inputName: string) {
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const normalizedInput = normalizeName(inputName);
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const normalized = participants.map(p => ({ p, n: normalizeName(p.name) }));
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const exact = normalized.find(({ n }) => n === normalizedInput);
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if (exact) return exact.p;
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const contains = normalized.find(({ n }) => n.includes(normalizedInput) || normalizedInput.includes(n));
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if (contains) return contains.p;
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const inputWords = normalizedInput.split(' ').filter(w => w.length > 2);
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const overlap = normalized.find(({ n }) => {
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const pWords = n.split(' ').filter(w => w.length > 2);
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const shared = inputWords.filter(w => pWords.includes(w));
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return shared.length > 0 && shared.length >= Math.min(inputWords.length, pWords.length) * 0.5;
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});
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return overlap?.p ?? null;
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}
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function parseBulkText() {
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// Format: "Player Name, 2450" or "Player Name: 2450" or "Player Name 2450"
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const lines = bulkText.split('\n');
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const matched: Array<{ participantId: string; name: string; elo: number; inputName: string }> = [];
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const unmatched: Array<{ inputName: string; elo: number }> = [];
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const seen = new Set<string>();
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for (const line of lines) {
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const trimmed = line.trim();
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if (!trimmed) continue;
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// Match "Name, 2450" or "Name: 2450" or "Name 2450" (Elo is a 4-digit integer)
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const match = /^(.+?)[\s,:\t]+(\d{3,5})\s*$/.exec(trimmed);
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if (!match) continue;
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const inputName = match[1].trim();
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const elo = parseInt(match[2], 10);
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if (isNaN(elo) || elo < 500 || elo > 5000) continue;
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const participant = findParticipantMatch(inputName);
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if (participant && !seen.has(participant.id)) {
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seen.add(participant.id);
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matched.push({ participantId: participant.id, name: participant.name, elo, inputName });
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} else if (!participant) {
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unmatched.push({ inputName, elo });
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}
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}
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setParseResults({ matched, unmatched });
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}
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function applyMatches() {
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if (!parseResults) return;
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const newValues = { ...eloValues };
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for (const m of parseResults.matched) {
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newValues[m.participantId] = m.elo.toString();
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}
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setEloValues(newValues);
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setParseResults(null);
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setBulkText('');
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}
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const isSubmitting = navigation.state === 'submitting';
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return (
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<div className="container mx-auto py-8">
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<div className="mb-8">
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<h1 className="text-3xl font-bold mb-2">Elo Ratings</h1>
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<p className="text-muted-foreground">
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{sportsSeason.sport.name} — {sportsSeason.name}
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</p>
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</div>
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{/* Bulk Import */}
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<Card className="mb-6">
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<CardHeader>
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<CardTitle>Bulk Import</CardTitle>
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<CardDescription>
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Paste Elo ratings one per line. Format: <code>Player Name, 2450</code>. Player names
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are fuzzy-matched to participants. Elo values should be in the 2000–2900 range for snooker.
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</CardDescription>
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</CardHeader>
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<CardContent className="space-y-4">
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<Textarea
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placeholder={`Judd Trump, 2594\nRonnie O'Sullivan, 2441\nMark Selby, 2432`}
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value={bulkText}
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onChange={e => { setBulkText(e.target.value); setParseResults(null); }}
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rows={8}
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className="font-mono text-sm"
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/>
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<Button type="button" variant="outline" onClick={parseBulkText} disabled={!bulkText.trim()}>
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Parse Ratings
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</Button>
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{parseResults && (
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<div className="space-y-3">
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{parseResults.matched.length > 0 && (
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<div>
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<div className="flex items-center gap-2 text-sm font-medium text-emerald-400 mb-2">
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<CheckCircle2 className="h-4 w-4" />
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Matched ({parseResults.matched.length})
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</div>
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<div className="rounded-md border border-emerald-500/30 bg-emerald-500/10 divide-y divide-emerald-500/20 text-sm">
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{parseResults.matched.map(m => (
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<div key={m.participantId} className="flex justify-between px-3 py-1.5">
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<span className="text-muted-foreground">{m.inputName}</span>
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<span className="font-medium">{m.name} → {m.elo}</span>
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</div>
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))}
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</div>
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</div>
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)}
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{parseResults.unmatched.length > 0 && (
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<div>
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<div className="flex items-center gap-2 text-sm font-medium text-amber-700 mb-2">
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<AlertCircle className="h-4 w-4" />
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Not matched ({parseResults.unmatched.length}) — enter manually below
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</div>
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<div className="rounded-md border border-amber-200 bg-amber-50 divide-y divide-amber-100 text-sm">
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{parseResults.unmatched.map(u => (
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<div key={u.inputName} className="flex justify-between px-3 py-1.5">
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<span>{u.inputName}</span>
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<span className="font-medium">{u.elo}</span>
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</div>
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))}
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</div>
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</div>
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)}
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{parseResults.matched.length > 0 && (
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<Button type="button" onClick={applyMatches}>
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Apply {parseResults.matched.length} matched ratings to form
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</Button>
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)}
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</div>
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)}
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</CardContent>
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</Card>
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<div className="grid gap-6 lg:grid-cols-2">
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<Card>
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<CardHeader>
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<CardTitle>Player Elo Ratings</CardTitle>
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<CardDescription>
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Enter each player's current Elo rating. Saving will automatically run the simulation
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and update expected values. Snooker Elo typically ranges from ~2000 (qualifier level)
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to ~2600 (world-class).
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</CardDescription>
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</CardHeader>
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<CardContent>
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<Form method="post" className="space-y-4">
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<div className="space-y-3">
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{participants.map(participant => (
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<div key={participant.id} className="grid grid-cols-2 gap-4 items-center">
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<Label htmlFor={`elo_${participant.id}`}>{participant.name}</Label>
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<Input
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type="number"
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id={`elo_${participant.id}`}
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name={`elo_${participant.id}`}
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placeholder="2450"
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value={eloValues[participant.id] ?? ''}
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onChange={e =>
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setEloValues(prev => ({ ...prev, [participant.id]: e.target.value }))
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}
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/>
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</div>
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))}
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</div>
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{actionData && !actionData.success && actionData.message && (
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<div className="text-sm text-destructive">{actionData.message}</div>
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)}
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<Button type="submit" disabled={isSubmitting}>
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{isSubmitting && <Loader2 className="mr-2 h-4 w-4 animate-spin" />}
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{isSubmitting ? 'Saving & Running Simulation...' : 'Save Ratings & Run Simulation'}
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</Button>
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</Form>
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</CardContent>
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</Card>
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<Card>
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<CardHeader>
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<CardTitle>How It Works</CardTitle>
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</CardHeader>
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<CardContent className="text-sm space-y-2">
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<ol className="list-decimal list-inside space-y-2">
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<li>Save Elo ratings for all participants</li>
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<li>Compute per-frame win probability: p = 1 / (1 + e^(−ΔElo/700))</li>
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<li>Compute match win probability using the Bernoulli frame model for each round's best-of length</li>
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<li>Run 50,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the full bracket</li>
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<li>Distribute probabilities across 1st–8th place buckets</li>
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<li>Calculate expected fantasy value per player</li>
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</ol>
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<div className="mt-4 text-muted-foreground text-xs space-y-1">
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<div>Round frames: R32 best-of-19, R16/QF best-of-25, SF best-of-33, Final best-of-35</div>
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<div>World rankings (for pre-bracket draws) are hardcoded in the simulator.</div>
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</div>
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</CardContent>
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</Card>
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</div>
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</div>
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);
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}
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