Replace the two parallel odds/Elo mechanisms with one model: every strength
source (raw Elo, projected wins, projected table points, futures odds) converts
to an Elo, those blend by weight into a single Elo, and that one Elo feeds every
simulator. This supersedes the earlier source-priority + per-match probability
blend approach.
Resolution (app/services/simulations/input-policy.ts):
- SimulatorInputPolicy gains baseEloPriority (order among the substitutable base
sources: raw Elo / projected wins / projected table points) and oddsWeight
(0–1). resolveSourceElos/resolveRatings now compute baseElo, derive an
odds Elo via convertFuturesToElo, and blend: 0 = base only, 1 = futures
override, between = weighted blend (method "blend").
- Drops the odds-inclusive sourceEloPriority and the prefersFuturesOdds helper.
Simulators consume the single resolved Elo:
- UCL, World Cup, NCAA Football, MLB drop their separate normalized-odds signal,
convertFuturesToElo calls, and per-match probability blend; they read the
resolved sourceElo (preserving each sim's hardcoded fallback Elo table). The
optional SimulationContext oddsWeight plumbing (types.ts/runner.ts) is removed.
- UCL is routed through the central blend (requiredInputs sourceElo, derivable
from sourceOdds) so any entered Elo and futures blend uniformly.
- College hockey already blends odds into Elo internally (and uses NPI rank the
central resolver can't), so its central oddsWeight is set to 0 to avoid
double-counting; the simulator is unchanged.
Manifest: per-profile oddsWeight defaults (World Cup/UCL/MLB 0.3, NCAA FB 0.4,
college hockey 0; global default 0.3).
UI: the Input Policy card exposes one "Futures vs. Elo — Odds Blend Weight"
control; the /admin/simulators inventory badge shows the effective blend
("Elo only" / "NN% blend" / "overrides Elo") with the odds participant count.
Tests: input-policy blend math (0/0.5/1) for Elo and ratings, baseEloPriority
and oddsWeight parsing/clamping, manifest per-profile weights; obsolete
source-priority and oddsWeight-context tests removed/replaced.
Note: this intentionally shifts the calibrated EV outputs of the four sims that
previously blended at the probability level (accepted in design discussion).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01QhNeB7gN6VKene7sdbBVQT
|
||
|---|---|---|
| .claude | ||
| .forgejo/workflows | ||
| .opencode/plugins | ||
| .production-info | ||
| .storybook | ||
| .vscode | ||
| app | ||
| cypress | ||
| database | ||
| docs | ||
| drizzle | ||
| plans | ||
| public | ||
| scripts | ||
| server | ||
| test-fixtures/baselines | ||
| .dockerignore | ||
| .env.example | ||
| .gitignore | ||
| .npmrc | ||
| .nvmrc | ||
| .oxlintrc.json | ||
| AGENTS.md | ||
| BETTERAUTH_MIGRATION.md | ||
| CLAUDE.md | ||
| components.json | ||
| cypress.config.js | ||
| docker-compose.yml | ||
| Dockerfile | ||
| drizzle.config.ts | ||
| instrument.server.mjs | ||
| oxlint.json | ||
| package-lock.json | ||
| package.json | ||
| plan.md | ||
| react-router.config.ts | ||
| README.md | ||
| server.ts | ||
| TESTING.md | ||
| tsconfig.json | ||
| tsconfig.node.json | ||
| tsconfig.server.json | ||
| tsconfig.vite.json | ||
| vite.config.ts | ||
| vitest.config.ts | ||
| vitest.shims.d.ts | ||
Welcome to React Router!
A modern, production-ready template for building full-stack React applications using React Router.
Features
- 🚀 Server-side rendering
- ⚡️ Hot Module Replacement (HMR)
- 📦 Asset bundling and optimization
- 🔄 Data loading and mutations
- 🔒 TypeScript by default
- 🎉 TailwindCSS for styling
- 💾 PostgreSQL + DrizzleORM
- 📖 React Router docs
Getting Started
Installation
Install the dependencies:
npm install
Development
Copy .env.example to .env and provide a DATABASE_URL with your connection string.
Run an initial database migration:
npm run db:migrate
Start the development server with HMR:
npm run dev
Your application will be available at http://localhost:5173.
Building for Production
Create a production build:
npm run build
Deployment
Docker Deployment
To build and run using Docker:
# For npm
docker build -t my-app .
# Run the container
docker run -p 3000:3000 my-app
The containerized application can be deployed to any platform that supports Docker, including:
- AWS ECS
- Google Cloud Run
- Azure Container Apps
- Digital Ocean App Platform
- Fly.io
- Railway
DIY Deployment
If you're familiar with deploying Node applications, the built-in app server is production-ready.
Make sure to deploy the output of npm run build
├── package.json
├── package-lock.json (or pnpm-lock.yaml, or bun.lockb)
├── server.js
├── build/
│ ├── client/ # Static assets
│ └── server/ # Server-side code
Styling
This template comes with Tailwind CSS already configured for a simple default starting experience. You can use whatever CSS framework you prefer.
Built with ❤️ using React Router.