brackt/app/services/simulations
Chris Parsons 2b48ef285d
Rework MLB simulator: RDif-based matchup probs, 2026 data, fixes #227 (#228)
Fixes #227

- Replace hardcoded Elo ratings with 2026 FanGraphs Depth Charts projected
  run differential (RDif) for all 30 teams
- Replace Elo formula with Bill James log5 using RDif → win rate conversion
- Restore p_div/p_wc from FanGraphs playoff odds (divTitle/wcTitle) for
  seeding draws — previously these were incorrectly derived from raw win
  rates, which gave the Dodgers only ~24% division win probability instead
  of the correct ~90%
- Add RDIF_DIVISOR constant to compress team strengths toward .500 for
  playoff parity; set to 8000 (Dodgers +137 → ~51.7% per-game win rate)
- Fix minimum team check: < 5 → < 6 (need 3 div winners + 3 wild cards)
- Fix Colorado Rockies p_div 0.000 → 0.001 for consistency
- Fix stale comments throughout; update tests

Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-25 19:05:12 -07:00
..
__tests__ Rework MLB simulator: RDif-based matchup probs, 2026 data, fixes #227 (#228) 2026-03-25 19:05:12 -07:00
afl-simulator.ts Add AFL season + finals simulator (closes #126) (#204) 2026-03-22 01:57:39 -07:00
auto-racing-simulator.ts Fix oxlint warnings: no-shadow, consistent-function-scoping, no-non-null-assertion, and others (#196) 2026-03-21 10:59:51 -07:00
bracket-simulator.ts Fix oxlint warnings: no-shadow, consistent-function-scoping, no-non-null-assertion, and others (#196) 2026-03-21 10:59:51 -07:00
golf-simulator.ts Add golf qualifying points simulator (Plackett-Luce Monte Carlo) (#223) 2026-03-24 21:46:02 -07:00
mlb-simulator.ts Rework MLB simulator: RDif-based matchup probs, 2026 data, fixes #227 (#228) 2026-03-25 19:05:12 -07:00
nba-simulator.ts Simulate NBA remaining regular season games from standings (#201) 2026-03-21 23:37:20 -07:00
ncaam-simulator.ts Replace console.* with structured logger, fix no-inferrable-types (closes #98) (#199) 2026-03-21 13:41:39 -07:00
ncaaw-simulator.ts Replace console.* with structured logger, fix no-inferrable-types (closes #98) (#199) 2026-03-21 13:41:39 -07:00
nhl-simulator.ts Tune NHL simulator: Vegas futures blending + parity factor calibration (closes #168) (#202) 2026-03-22 00:14:18 -07:00
registry.ts Add MLB playoff simulator with AL/NL division standings, fixes #121 (#225) 2026-03-25 08:47:02 -07:00
snooker-simulator.ts Add snooker bracket simulator and Elo ratings admin UI, fixes #119 2026-03-23 08:24:28 -07:00
tennis-simulator.ts Add tennis Grand Slam simulator with surface Elo ratings, fixes #116 (#216) 2026-03-23 23:59:35 -07:00
types.ts User/chris/ev f1 framework (#93) 2026-03-09 15:34:31 -07:00
ucl-simulator.ts Fix oxlint warnings: no-shadow, consistent-function-scoping, no-non-null-assertion, and others (#196) 2026-03-21 10:59:51 -07:00