brackt/app/services/standings-sync/wnba.ts
Chris Parsons bde1e6e5f0
Add WNBA playoff simulator with SRS-based Elo ratings, fixes #125 (#231)
* Add WNBA playoff simulator with SRS-based Elo ratings, fixes #125

- New WNBASimulator: Monte Carlo (50k sims) projecting remaining regular
  season games → seeding → R1 Bo3 / Semis Bo5 / Finals Bo7 bracket
- Hybrid Elo sourcing: pre-season uses futures odds (ICM); once avg
  gamesPlayed ≥ 5, switches automatically to SRS-derived Elo
  (elo = 1500 + srs × 20)
- New WnbaStandingsAdapter: fetches ESPN standings + teams endpoints in
  parallel; includes zero-records for 2026 expansion teams (Portland
  Fire, Toronto Tempo) not yet in standings
- Added srs column to regular_season_standings (migration 0063);
  stored as net rating proxy (avgPointsFor − avgPointsAgainst)
- Added wnba_bracket to simulatorTypeEnum

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* Fix missing afterEach import in wnba standings test

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

---------

Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-26 00:34:51 -07:00

269 lines
8.2 KiB
TypeScript

import type { FetchedStandingsRecord, StandingsSyncAdapter } from "./types";
const WNBA_STANDINGS_URL =
"https://site.api.espn.com/apis/v2/sports/basketball/wnba/standings";
/**
* Returns all registered WNBA teams (including pre-season expansion teams not yet
* in standings). Used to supplement the standings response so every team gets a record.
*/
const WNBA_TEAMS_URL =
"https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/wnba/teams";
interface EspnStat {
name: string;
displayName?: string;
shortDisplayName?: string;
description?: string;
abbreviation?: string;
type?: string;
value?: number;
displayValue?: string;
}
interface EspnTeam {
id: string;
displayName: string;
shortDisplayName?: string;
abbreviation?: string;
location?: string;
name?: string;
}
interface EspnStandingsEntry {
team: EspnTeam;
stats: EspnStat[];
}
interface EspnStandingsGroup {
name?: string;
standings?: { entries?: EspnStandingsEntry[] };
children?: EspnStandingsGroup[];
}
interface EspnStandingsResponse {
children?: EspnStandingsGroup[];
}
interface EspnTeamItem {
team: {
id: string;
displayName: string;
isActive?: boolean;
};
}
interface EspnTeamsResponse {
sports?: Array<{
leagues?: Array<{
teams?: EspnTeamItem[];
}>;
}>;
}
function statsMap(stats: EspnStat[]): Map<string, EspnStat> {
const map = new Map<string, EspnStat>();
for (const stat of stats) {
map.set(stat.name, stat);
}
return map;
}
/**
* Flatten the ESPN standings response.
* WNBA has conferences (East/West) but no divisions — entries are either directly
* under the conference group or nested one level deeper (ESPN sometimes wraps
* conferences in a single top-level group). Handles both layouts.
*/
function flattenEspnStandings(
response: EspnStandingsResponse
): Array<{ entry: EspnStandingsEntry; conference: string }> {
const results: Array<{ entry: EspnStandingsEntry; conference: string }> = [];
for (const topGroup of response.children ?? []) {
if (topGroup.children && topGroup.children.length > 0) {
// Top-level group has sub-groups — each sub-group is a conference (no divisions).
for (const confGroup of topGroup.children) {
const conferenceName = confGroup.name ?? topGroup.name ?? "";
for (const entry of confGroup.standings?.entries ?? []) {
results.push({ entry, conference: conferenceName });
}
}
} else {
// Top-level group is the conference itself.
const conferenceName = topGroup.name ?? "";
for (const entry of topGroup.standings?.entries ?? []) {
results.push({ entry, conference: conferenceName });
}
}
}
return results;
}
/** Parse a standings entry into a FetchedStandingsRecord (rank assigned by caller). */
function parseEntry(
entry: EspnStandingsEntry,
conference: string,
leagueRank: number
): FetchedStandingsRecord {
const sm = statsMap(entry.stats);
const wins = sm.get("wins")?.value ?? 0;
const losses = sm.get("losses")?.value ?? 0;
const winPercent = sm.get("winPercent")?.value ?? sm.get("winPct")?.value ?? 0;
const gamesBehind = sm.get("gamesBehind")?.value;
const streak =
sm.get("streak")?.displayValue ??
sm.get("streakSummary")?.displayValue;
const lastTen =
sm.get("Last Ten Games")?.displayValue ??
sm.get("L10")?.displayValue ??
undefined;
const homeRecord = sm.get("Home")?.displayValue ?? undefined;
const awayRecord = sm.get("Road")?.displayValue ?? undefined;
const playoffSeedStat = sm.get("playoffSeed");
const conferenceRank =
playoffSeedStat?.value !== undefined && playoffSeedStat.value !== null
? Math.round(playoffSeedStat.value)
: playoffSeedStat?.displayValue
? parseInt(playoffSeedStat.displayValue, 10) || undefined
: undefined;
// SRS proxy: average point differential per game.
// ESPN exposes "avgPointsFor" and "avgPointsAgainst" (or "pointsFor"/"pointsAgainst").
// If unavailable, fall back to null so the simulator uses the league-average Elo (1500).
const ptFor =
sm.get("avgPointsFor")?.value ??
sm.get("pointsFor")?.value ??
null;
const ptAgainst =
sm.get("avgPointsAgainst")?.value ??
sm.get("pointsAgainst")?.value ??
null;
const srs =
ptFor !== null && ptFor !== undefined &&
ptAgainst !== null && ptAgainst !== undefined
? Math.round((ptFor - ptAgainst) * 100) / 100
: null;
return {
teamName: entry.team.displayName,
externalTeamId: entry.team.id,
wins: Math.round(wins),
losses: Math.round(losses),
winPct: winPercent,
gamesPlayed: Math.round(wins) + Math.round(losses),
gamesBack: gamesBehind,
conference: conference || undefined,
conferenceRank,
leagueRank,
streak,
lastTen,
homeRecord,
awayRecord,
srs,
};
}
export class WnbaStandingsAdapter implements StandingsSyncAdapter {
async fetchStandings(): Promise<FetchedStandingsRecord[]> {
// Fetch both endpoints in parallel.
const [standingsResponse, teamsResponse] = await Promise.all([
fetch(WNBA_STANDINGS_URL),
fetch(WNBA_TEAMS_URL),
]);
if (!standingsResponse.ok) {
throw new Error(
`WNBA standings API returned ${standingsResponse.status}: ${standingsResponse.statusText}`
);
}
if (!teamsResponse.ok) {
throw new Error(
`WNBA teams API returned ${teamsResponse.status}: ${teamsResponse.statusText}`
);
}
const [standingsJson, teamsJson] = await Promise.all([
standingsResponse.json() as Promise<EspnStandingsResponse>,
teamsResponse.json() as Promise<EspnTeamsResponse>,
]);
// Build standings records from the standings endpoint, sorted by wins desc.
// Pre-parse each entry once so statsMap isn't rebuilt multiple times per entry.
const flattened = flattenEspnStandings(standingsJson).map(({ entry, conference }) => ({
entry,
conference,
sm: statsMap(entry.stats),
}));
const sortedEntries = [...flattened].toSorted((a, b) => {
const winsA = a.sm.get("wins")?.value ?? 0;
const winsB = b.sm.get("wins")?.value ?? 0;
if (winsB !== winsA) return winsB - winsA;
const lossA = a.sm.get("losses")?.value ?? 0;
const lossB = b.sm.get("losses")?.value ?? 0;
return lossA - lossB;
});
// Map externalTeamId → parsed record (so we can detect which teams are missing).
const recordsByTeamId = new Map<string, FetchedStandingsRecord>();
sortedEntries.forEach(({ entry, conference }, idx) => {
recordsByTeamId.set(
entry.team.id,
parseEntry(entry, conference, idx + 1)
);
});
// Extract the full team list from the teams endpoint.
const allTeams: Array<{ id: string; displayName: string }> = (
teamsJson.sports?.[0]?.leagues?.[0]?.teams ?? []
)
.filter((t) => t.team.isActive !== false)
.map((t) => ({ id: t.team.id, displayName: t.team.displayName }));
if (allTeams.length === 0 && recordsByTeamId.size === 0) {
throw new Error(
"WNBA standings API returned no entries — response shape may have changed"
);
}
// Merge: use standing records where available; fill in zero-records for
// expansion teams not yet in the standings (pre-season or mid-season addition).
const results: FetchedStandingsRecord[] = [];
const seenIds = new Set<string>();
// First, add all teams that have standings data (preserving their rank).
for (const record of recordsByTeamId.values()) {
results.push(record);
seenIds.add(record.externalTeamId);
}
// Then, append zero-records for any team in the teams list but not in standings.
let expansionRank = results.length + 1;
for (const team of allTeams) {
if (!seenIds.has(team.id)) {
results.push({
teamName: team.displayName,
externalTeamId: team.id,
wins: 0,
losses: 0,
winPct: 0,
gamesPlayed: 0,
leagueRank: expansionRank++,
srs: null,
});
}
}
// If the teams endpoint returned nothing (API change), fall back to standings only.
if (results.length === 0) {
throw new Error(
"WNBA standings API returned no entries — response shape may have changed"
);
}
return results;
}
}