96b4c5a350
The implementation and rest of the system (ICM calculator, probability updater) use decimals (0-1) for probabilities, but the tests were using percentages (0-100). Updated tests and docs to match. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
361 lines
9.7 KiB
TypeScript
361 lines
9.7 KiB
TypeScript
import { describe, it, expect } from "vitest";
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import {
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calculateEV,
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validateProbabilities,
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normalizeProbabilities,
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calculateProjectedTotal,
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type ScoringRules,
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type ProbabilityDistribution,
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} from "../ev-calculator";
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describe("calculateEV", () => {
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const defaultScoring: ScoringRules = {
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pointsFor1st: 100,
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pointsFor2nd: 70,
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pointsFor3rd: 50,
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pointsFor4th: 40,
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pointsFor5th: 25,
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pointsFor6th: 25,
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pointsFor7th: 15,
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pointsFor8th: 15,
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};
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it("should calculate EV for equal probabilities", () => {
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const probabilities: ProbabilityDistribution = {
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probFirst: 0.125,
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probSecond: 0.125,
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probThird: 0.125,
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probFourth: 0.125,
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probFifth: 0.125,
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probSixth: 0.125,
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probSeventh: 0.125,
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probEighth: 0.125,
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};
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const ev = calculateEV(probabilities, defaultScoring);
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// EV = 0.125 × (100+70+50+40+25+25+15+15) = 0.125 × 340 = 42.5
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expect(ev).toBe(42.5);
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});
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it("should calculate EV for favorite (high probability of 1st)", () => {
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const probabilities: ProbabilityDistribution = {
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probFirst: 0.50,
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probSecond: 0.30,
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probThird: 0.10,
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probFourth: 0.05,
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probFifth: 0.03,
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probSixth: 0.01,
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probSeventh: 0.005,
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probEighth: 0.005,
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};
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const ev = calculateEV(probabilities, defaultScoring);
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// EV = 0.50×100 + 0.30×70 + 0.10×50 + 0.05×40 + 0.03×25 + 0.01×25 + 0.005×15 + 0.005×15
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// = 50 + 21 + 5 + 2 + 0.75 + 0.25 + 0.075 + 0.075 = 79.15
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expect(ev).toBe(79.15);
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});
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it("should calculate EV for underdog (low probability of 1st)", () => {
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const probabilities: ProbabilityDistribution = {
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probFirst: 0.02,
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probSecond: 0.05,
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probThird: 0.08,
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probFourth: 0.10,
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probFifth: 0.15,
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probSixth: 0.20,
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probSeventh: 0.20,
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probEighth: 0.20,
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};
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const ev = calculateEV(probabilities, defaultScoring);
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// EV = 0.02×100 + 0.05×70 + 0.08×50 + 0.10×40 + 0.15×25 + 0.20×25 + 0.20×15 + 0.20×15
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// = 2 + 3.5 + 4 + 4 + 3.75 + 5 + 3 + 3 = 28.25
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expect(ev).toBe(28.25);
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});
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it("should calculate EV with custom scoring rules", () => {
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const customScoring: ScoringRules = {
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pointsFor1st: 200,
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pointsFor2nd: 150,
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pointsFor3rd: 100,
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pointsFor4th: 80,
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pointsFor5th: 50,
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pointsFor6th: 50,
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pointsFor7th: 30,
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pointsFor8th: 30,
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};
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const probabilities: ProbabilityDistribution = {
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probFirst: 0.20,
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probSecond: 0.20,
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probThird: 0.15,
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probFourth: 0.15,
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probFifth: 0.10,
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probSixth: 0.10,
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probSeventh: 0.05,
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probEighth: 0.05,
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};
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const ev = calculateEV(probabilities, customScoring);
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// EV = 0.20×200 + 0.20×150 + 0.15×100 + 0.15×80 + 0.10×50 + 0.10×50 + 0.05×30 + 0.05×30
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// = 40 + 30 + 15 + 12 + 5 + 5 + 1.5 + 1.5 = 110
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expect(ev).toBe(110);
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});
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it("should handle 100% probability of one placement (finished participant)", () => {
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const probabilities: ProbabilityDistribution = {
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probFirst: 1.0,
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probSecond: 0,
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probThird: 0,
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probFourth: 0,
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probFifth: 0,
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probSixth: 0,
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probSeventh: 0,
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probEighth: 0,
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};
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const ev = calculateEV(probabilities, defaultScoring);
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expect(ev).toBe(100); // 1.0 × 100 = 100
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});
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it("should handle probabilities with decimal places", () => {
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const probabilities: ProbabilityDistribution = {
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probFirst: 0.1575,
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probSecond: 0.1425,
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probThird: 0.1350,
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probFourth: 0.1275,
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probFifth: 0.1100,
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probSixth: 0.1050,
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probSeventh: 0.1125,
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probEighth: 0.1100,
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};
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const ev = calculateEV(probabilities, defaultScoring);
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// EV = 0.1575×100 + 0.1425×70 + ... = 46.29
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expect(ev).toBeCloseTo(46.29, 2);
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});
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it("should return 0 when all probabilities are 0", () => {
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const probabilities: ProbabilityDistribution = {
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probFirst: 0,
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probSecond: 0,
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probThird: 0,
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probFourth: 0,
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probFifth: 0,
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probSixth: 0,
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probSeventh: 0,
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probEighth: 0,
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};
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const ev = calculateEV(probabilities, defaultScoring);
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expect(ev).toBe(0);
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});
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});
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describe("validateProbabilities", () => {
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it("should validate probabilities that sum to 1.0", () => {
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const valid: ProbabilityDistribution = {
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probFirst: 0.20,
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probSecond: 0.20,
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probThird: 0.15,
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probFourth: 0.15,
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probFifth: 0.10,
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probSixth: 0.10,
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probSeventh: 0.05,
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probEighth: 0.05,
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};
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expect(validateProbabilities(valid)).toBe(true);
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});
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it("should accept probabilities within tolerance (default 0.01)", () => {
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const nearlyValid: ProbabilityDistribution = {
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probFirst: 0.2005,
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probSecond: 0.20,
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probThird: 0.15,
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probFourth: 0.15,
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probFifth: 0.10,
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probSixth: 0.10,
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probSeventh: 0.05,
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probEighth: 0.0495,
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};
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expect(validateProbabilities(nearlyValid)).toBe(true);
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});
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it("should reject probabilities that sum too high", () => {
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const tooHigh: ProbabilityDistribution = {
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probFirst: 0.20,
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probSecond: 0.20,
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probThird: 0.20,
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probFourth: 0.20,
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probFifth: 0.10,
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probSixth: 0.10,
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probSeventh: 0.05,
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probEighth: 0.05,
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};
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expect(validateProbabilities(tooHigh)).toBe(false);
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});
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it("should reject probabilities that sum too low", () => {
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const tooLow: ProbabilityDistribution = {
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probFirst: 0.10,
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probSecond: 0.10,
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probThird: 0.10,
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probFourth: 0.10,
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probFifth: 0.10,
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probSixth: 0.10,
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probSeventh: 0.05,
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probEighth: 0.05,
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};
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expect(validateProbabilities(tooLow)).toBe(false);
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});
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it("should allow custom tolerance", () => {
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const probabilities: ProbabilityDistribution = {
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probFirst: 0.21,
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probSecond: 0.20,
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probThird: 0.15,
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probFourth: 0.15,
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probFifth: 0.10,
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probSixth: 0.10,
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probSeventh: 0.05,
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probEighth: 0.04,
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};
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// Sum is 1.0, within any tolerance
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expect(validateProbabilities(probabilities, 0.01)).toBe(true);
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expect(validateProbabilities(probabilities, 0.001)).toBe(true);
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});
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});
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describe("normalizeProbabilities", () => {
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it("should normalize probabilities that sum to more than 1.0", () => {
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const input: ProbabilityDistribution = {
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probFirst: 0.22,
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probSecond: 0.22,
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probThird: 0.17,
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probFourth: 0.17,
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probFifth: 0.11,
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probSixth: 0.11,
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probSeventh: 0.055,
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probEighth: 0.055,
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};
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// Sum = 1.11
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const normalized = normalizeProbabilities(input);
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// Each should be scaled down by 1/1.11
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expect(normalized.probFirst).toBeCloseTo(0.1982, 3);
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expect(normalized.probSecond).toBeCloseTo(0.1982, 3);
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// Sum should be exactly 1.0 (within rounding)
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const sum = Object.values(normalized).reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0);
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expect(sum).toBeCloseTo(1.0, 3);
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});
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it("should normalize probabilities that sum to less than 1.0", () => {
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const input: ProbabilityDistribution = {
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probFirst: 0.18,
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probSecond: 0.18,
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probThird: 0.135,
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probFourth: 0.135,
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probFifth: 0.09,
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probSixth: 0.09,
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probSeventh: 0.045,
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probEighth: 0.045,
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};
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// Sum = 0.90
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const normalized = normalizeProbabilities(input);
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// Each should be scaled up by 1/0.90
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expect(normalized.probFirst).toBeCloseTo(0.20, 2);
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expect(normalized.probSecond).toBeCloseTo(0.20, 2);
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const sum = Object.values(normalized).reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0);
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expect(sum).toBeCloseTo(1.0, 3);
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});
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it("should handle probabilities that already sum to 1.0", () => {
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const input: ProbabilityDistribution = {
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probFirst: 0.20,
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probSecond: 0.20,
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probThird: 0.15,
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probFourth: 0.15,
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probFifth: 0.10,
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probSixth: 0.10,
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probSeventh: 0.05,
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probEighth: 0.05,
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};
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const normalized = normalizeProbabilities(input);
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// Should remain essentially unchanged
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expect(normalized.probFirst).toBeCloseTo(0.20, 3);
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expect(normalized.probSecond).toBeCloseTo(0.20, 3);
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});
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it("should handle all zeros by returning equal probabilities", () => {
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const input: ProbabilityDistribution = {
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probFirst: 0,
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probSecond: 0,
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probThird: 0,
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probFourth: 0,
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probFifth: 0,
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probSixth: 0,
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probSeventh: 0,
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probEighth: 0,
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};
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const normalized = normalizeProbabilities(input);
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// Should return 0.125 for each (equal distribution)
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expect(normalized.probFirst).toBe(0.125);
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expect(normalized.probSecond).toBe(0.125);
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expect(normalized.probEighth).toBe(0.125);
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});
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});
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describe("calculateProjectedTotal", () => {
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it("should calculate projected total with multiple unfinished participants", () => {
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const result = calculateProjectedTotal(
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150, // actual points from finished
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[45.5, 30.2, 25.8, 20.1] // EVs of unfinished participants
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);
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expect(result.actualPoints).toBe(150);
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expect(result.projectedPoints).toBe(271.6); // 150 + 121.6
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expect(result.participantsRemaining).toBe(4);
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});
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it("should handle no remaining participants", () => {
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const result = calculateProjectedTotal(250, []);
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expect(result.actualPoints).toBe(250);
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expect(result.projectedPoints).toBe(250); // Same as actual
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expect(result.participantsRemaining).toBe(0);
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});
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it("should handle zero actual points", () => {
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const result = calculateProjectedTotal(0, [50, 40, 30]);
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expect(result.actualPoints).toBe(0);
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expect(result.projectedPoints).toBe(120);
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expect(result.participantsRemaining).toBe(3);
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});
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it("should round to 2 decimal places", () => {
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const result = calculateProjectedTotal(100.123, [25.456, 30.789]);
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expect(result.actualPoints).toBe(100.12);
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expect(result.projectedPoints).toBe(156.37); // Rounded
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});
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});
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