79ec477a98
Implements Phase 5.2 of the EV system with Harville-Malmuth Independent Chip Model for calculating participant placement probabilities from futures odds. ## Key Features ### ICM Probability Calculator - Implements Harville-Malmuth method for distributing probabilities - Converts American odds to championship probabilities - Generates P(1st) through P(8th) for all participants - Column-normalized: each placement sums to 100% across all teams - Works with any number of participants (not limited to 8) ### Admin UI - Futures Odds Entry - Enter American odds (e.g., +550, -200) for championship futures - Live preview of ICM-calculated probability distributions - Displays all 8 placement probabilities - Persists odds for editing on subsequent visits - Automatic probability normalization (removes bookmaker vig) ### Database Schema Updates - Renamed participant_expected_values.season_id → sports_season_id - Updated foreign key to reference sports_seasons instead of seasons - Added source_odds field to store original futures odds - Migration 0025: Column rename and FK update - Migration 0026: Add source_odds field ### Model Layer - participant-expected-value: CRUD operations for probability distributions - Supports multiple probability sources (manual, futures_odds, elo_simulation) - Automatic EV calculation based on league scoring rules - Probability validation and normalization ### Service Layer - icm-calculator: Harville-Malmuth probability distribution - probability-engine: Odds conversion and Elo utilities (for future use) - bracket-simulator: Monte Carlo simulation (for future hybrid approach) - ev-calculator: Expected value computation from probabilities ## Technical Details - Uses exponential decay favoring top positions for strong teams - Preserves championship probability ordering in final distributions - Row sums vary (strong teams ~100%, weak teams lower) - All probabilities between 0-1, mathematically valid - Comprehensive test suite: 97 tests passing ## Future Enhancements - Hybrid approach: ICM pre-playoffs, bracket simulation during playoffs - Integration with league-specific scoring rules - Historical probability tracking for accuracy analysis 🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.com/claude-code) Co-Authored-By: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
90 lines
3.5 KiB
TypeScript
90 lines
3.5 KiB
TypeScript
import { type RouteConfig, index, route } from "@react-router/dev/routes";
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export default [
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index("routes/home.tsx"),
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route("i/:inviteCode", "routes/i.$inviteCode.tsx"),
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route("leagues/new", "routes/leagues/new.tsx"),
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route("leagues/:leagueId", "routes/leagues/$leagueId.tsx"),
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route("leagues/:leagueId/settings", "routes/leagues/$leagueId.settings.tsx"),
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route(
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"leagues/:leagueId/sports-seasons/:sportsSeasonId",
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"routes/leagues/$leagueId.sports-seasons.$sportsSeasonId.tsx"
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),
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route(
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"leagues/:leagueId/draft/:seasonId",
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"routes/leagues/$leagueId.draft.$seasonId.tsx"
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),
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route(
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"leagues/:leagueId/draft-board/:seasonId",
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"routes/leagues/$leagueId.draft-board.$seasonId.tsx"
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),
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route(
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"leagues/:leagueId/standings/:seasonId",
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"routes/leagues/$leagueId.standings.$seasonId.tsx"
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),
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route(
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"leagues/:leagueId/standings/:seasonId/teams/:teamId",
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"routes/leagues/$leagueId.standings.$seasonId.teams.$teamId.tsx"
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),
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route("teams/:teamId/settings", "routes/teams/$teamId.settings.tsx"),
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route("api/webhooks/clerk", "routes/api/webhooks/clerk.ts"),
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route("api/queue/add", "routes/api/queue.add.ts"),
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route("api/queue/remove", "routes/api/queue.remove.ts"),
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route("api/queue/clear", "routes/api/queue.clear.ts"),
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route("api/queue/reorder", "routes/api/queue.reorder.ts"),
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route("api/draft/make-pick", "routes/api/draft.make-pick.ts"),
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route("api/draft/start", "routes/api/draft.start.ts"),
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route("api/draft/pause", "routes/api/draft.pause.ts"),
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route("api/draft/resume", "routes/api/draft.resume.ts"),
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route("api/draft/force-autopick", "routes/api/draft.force-autopick.ts"),
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route("api/draft/force-manual-pick", "routes/api/draft.force-manual-pick.ts"),
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route("api/autodraft/update", "routes/api/autodraft.update.ts"),
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route("user-profile", "routes/user-profile.tsx"),
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route("how-to-play", "routes/how-to-play.tsx"),
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route("test-socket", "routes/test-socket.tsx"),
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// Admin routes
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route("admin", "routes/admin.tsx", [
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index("routes/admin._index.tsx"),
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route("sports", "routes/admin.sports.tsx"),
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route("sports/new", "routes/admin.sports.new.tsx"),
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route("sports/:id", "routes/admin.sports.$id.tsx"),
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route("sports-seasons", "routes/admin.sports-seasons.tsx"),
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route("sports-seasons/new", "routes/admin.sports-seasons.new.tsx"),
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route("sports-seasons/:id", "routes/admin.sports-seasons.$id.tsx"),
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route(
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"sports-seasons/:id/participants",
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"routes/admin.sports-seasons.$id.participants.tsx"
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),
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route(
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"sports-seasons/:id/events",
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"routes/admin.sports-seasons.$id.events.tsx"
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),
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route(
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"sports-seasons/:id/events/:eventId",
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"routes/admin.sports-seasons.$id.events.$eventId.tsx"
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),
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route(
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"sports-seasons/:id/events/:eventId/bracket",
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"routes/admin.sports-seasons.$id.events.$eventId.bracket.tsx"
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),
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route(
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"sports-seasons/:id/expected-values",
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"routes/admin.sports-seasons.$id.expected-values.tsx"
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),
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route(
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"sports-seasons/:id/futures-odds",
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"routes/admin.sports-seasons.$id.futures-odds.tsx"
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),
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route("participants", "routes/admin.participants.tsx"),
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route("templates", "routes/admin.templates.tsx"),
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route("templates/new", "routes/admin.templates.new.tsx"),
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route("templates/:id", "routes/admin.templates.$id.tsx"),
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route("data-sync", "routes/admin.data-sync.tsx"),
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route("standings-snapshots", "routes/admin.standings-snapshots.tsx"),
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]),
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route(
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"api/admin/export-sports-data",
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"routes/api.admin.export-sports-data.ts"
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),
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] satisfies RouteConfig;
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