79ec477a98
Implements Phase 5.2 of the EV system with Harville-Malmuth Independent Chip Model for calculating participant placement probabilities from futures odds. ## Key Features ### ICM Probability Calculator - Implements Harville-Malmuth method for distributing probabilities - Converts American odds to championship probabilities - Generates P(1st) through P(8th) for all participants - Column-normalized: each placement sums to 100% across all teams - Works with any number of participants (not limited to 8) ### Admin UI - Futures Odds Entry - Enter American odds (e.g., +550, -200) for championship futures - Live preview of ICM-calculated probability distributions - Displays all 8 placement probabilities - Persists odds for editing on subsequent visits - Automatic probability normalization (removes bookmaker vig) ### Database Schema Updates - Renamed participant_expected_values.season_id → sports_season_id - Updated foreign key to reference sports_seasons instead of seasons - Added source_odds field to store original futures odds - Migration 0025: Column rename and FK update - Migration 0026: Add source_odds field ### Model Layer - participant-expected-value: CRUD operations for probability distributions - Supports multiple probability sources (manual, futures_odds, elo_simulation) - Automatic EV calculation based on league scoring rules - Probability validation and normalization ### Service Layer - icm-calculator: Harville-Malmuth probability distribution - probability-engine: Odds conversion and Elo utilities (for future use) - bracket-simulator: Monte Carlo simulation (for future hybrid approach) - ev-calculator: Expected value computation from probabilities ## Technical Details - Uses exponential decay favoring top positions for strong teams - Preserves championship probability ordering in final distributions - Row sums vary (strong teams ~100%, weak teams lower) - All probabilities between 0-1, mathematically valid - Comprehensive test suite: 97 tests passing ## Future Enhancements - Hybrid approach: ICM pre-playoffs, bracket simulation during playoffs - Integration with league-specific scoring rules - Historical probability tracking for accuracy analysis 🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.com/claude-code) Co-Authored-By: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
316 lines
12 KiB
TypeScript
316 lines
12 KiB
TypeScript
import { Form, Link, useActionData } from "react-router";
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import type { Route } from "./+types/admin.sports-seasons.$id.expected-values";
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import { findSportsSeasonById } from "~/models/sports-season";
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import { findParticipantsBySportsSeasonId } from "~/models/participant";
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import {
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upsertParticipantEV,
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getParticipantEV,
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getAllParticipantEVsForSeason
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} from "~/models/participant-expected-value";
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import { Button } from "~/components/ui/button";
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import { Input } from "~/components/ui/input";
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import { Label } from "~/components/ui/label";
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import {
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Card,
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CardContent,
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CardDescription,
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CardHeader,
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CardTitle,
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} from "~/components/ui/card";
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import {
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Table,
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TableBody,
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TableCell,
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TableHead,
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TableHeader,
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TableRow,
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} from "~/components/ui/table";
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import { ArrowLeft, Save, Calculator } from "lucide-react";
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import type { ProbabilitySource } from "~/models/participant-expected-value";
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export async function loader({ params }: Route.LoaderArgs) {
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const sportsSeason = await findSportsSeasonById(params.id);
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if (!sportsSeason) {
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throw new Response("Sports season not found", { status: 404 });
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}
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const participants = await findParticipantsBySportsSeasonId(params.id);
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const existingEVs = await getAllParticipantEVsForSeason(params.id);
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// Create a map of participant ID to EV data
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const evMap = new Map(existingEVs.map(ev => [ev.participantId, ev]));
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return {
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sportsSeason: sportsSeason as typeof sportsSeason & { sport: { id: string; name: string; type: string; slug: string } },
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participants,
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existingEVs: evMap,
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};
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}
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export async function action({ request, params }: Route.ActionArgs) {
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const formData = await request.formData();
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const participantId = formData.get("participantId");
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const source = (formData.get("source") || "manual") as ProbabilitySource;
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if (typeof participantId !== "string") {
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return { error: "Participant ID is required" };
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}
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// Get probability values
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const probFirst = parseFloat(formData.get("probFirst") as string || "0");
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const probSecond = parseFloat(formData.get("probSecond") as string || "0");
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const probThird = parseFloat(formData.get("probThird") as string || "0");
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const probFourth = parseFloat(formData.get("probFourth") as string || "0");
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const probFifth = parseFloat(formData.get("probFifth") as string || "0");
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const probSixth = parseFloat(formData.get("probSixth") as string || "0");
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const probSeventh = parseFloat(formData.get("probSeventh") as string || "0");
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const probEighth = parseFloat(formData.get("probEighth") as string || "0");
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// Use default scoring rules
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// Note: Actual league seasons may have different scoring rules
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// EVs will be recalculated when used in a specific league
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const scoringRules = {
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pointsFor1st: 100,
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pointsFor2nd: 70,
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pointsFor3rd: 50,
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pointsFor4th: 40,
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pointsFor5th: 25,
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pointsFor6th: 25,
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pointsFor7th: 15,
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pointsFor8th: 15,
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};
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try {
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const result = await upsertParticipantEV({
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participantId,
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sportsSeasonId: params.id,
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probabilities: {
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probFirst,
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probSecond,
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probThird,
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probFourth,
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probFifth,
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probSixth,
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probSeventh,
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probEighth,
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},
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scoringRules,
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source,
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});
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return {
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success: true,
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participantId,
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expectedValue: parseFloat(result.expectedValue),
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};
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} catch (error) {
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console.error("Error saving probabilities:", error);
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return {
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error: error instanceof Error ? error.message : "Failed to save probabilities"
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};
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}
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}
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export default function ExpectedValuesPage({ loaderData, actionData }: Route.ComponentProps) {
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const { sportsSeason, participants, existingEVs } = loaderData;
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return (
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<div className="container mx-auto p-6 space-y-6">
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<div className="flex items-center gap-4">
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<Link to={`/admin/sports-seasons/${sportsSeason.id}`}>
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<Button variant="ghost" size="sm">
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<ArrowLeft className="h-4 w-4 mr-2" />
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Back to Sports Season
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</Button>
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</Link>
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</div>
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<Card>
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<CardHeader>
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<CardTitle className="flex items-center gap-2">
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<Calculator className="h-5 w-5" />
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Expected Values: {sportsSeason.sport.name} {sportsSeason.year}
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</CardTitle>
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<CardDescription>
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Manage probability distributions and expected values for participants
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</CardDescription>
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</CardHeader>
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<CardContent className="space-y-6">
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{actionData?.error && (
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<div className="p-4 bg-red-50 border border-red-200 rounded-md text-red-700">
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{actionData.error}
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</div>
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)}
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{actionData?.success && (
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<div className="p-4 bg-green-50 border border-green-200 rounded-md text-green-700">
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Successfully saved! Expected Value: {actionData.expectedValue?.toFixed(2)} points
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</div>
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)}
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<div className="text-sm text-gray-600 space-y-2">
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<p><strong>Default Scoring Rules (for EV calculation):</strong></p>
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<div className="grid grid-cols-4 gap-2">
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<span>1st: 100 pts</span>
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<span>2nd: 70 pts</span>
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<span>3rd: 50 pts</span>
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<span>4th: 40 pts</span>
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<span>5th: 25 pts</span>
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<span>6th: 25 pts</span>
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<span>7th: 15 pts</span>
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<span>8th: 15 pts</span>
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</div>
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<p className="text-xs text-gray-500 italic">
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Note: EVs will be recalculated with actual league scoring rules when used in fantasy leagues.
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</p>
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</div>
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<Table>
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<TableHeader>
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<TableRow>
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<TableHead>Participant</TableHead>
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<TableHead className="text-center">1st %</TableHead>
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<TableHead className="text-center">2nd %</TableHead>
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<TableHead className="text-center">3rd %</TableHead>
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<TableHead className="text-center">4th %</TableHead>
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<TableHead className="text-center">5th %</TableHead>
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<TableHead className="text-center">6th %</TableHead>
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<TableHead className="text-center">7th %</TableHead>
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<TableHead className="text-center">8th %</TableHead>
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<TableHead className="text-center">EV</TableHead>
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<TableHead></TableHead>
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</TableRow>
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</TableHeader>
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<TableBody>
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{participants.map((participant: { id: string; name: string }) => {
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const existingEV = existingEVs.get(participant.id);
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const formId = `form-${participant.id}`;
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return (
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<TableRow key={participant.id}>
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<TableCell className="font-medium">{participant.name}</TableCell>
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<TableCell>
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<Input
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form={formId}
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type="number"
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name="probFirst"
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defaultValue={existingEV ? parseFloat(existingEV.probFirst) : 12.5}
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step="0.01"
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min="0"
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max="100"
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className="w-20 text-center"
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/>
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</TableCell>
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<TableCell>
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<Input
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form={formId}
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type="number"
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name="probSecond"
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defaultValue={existingEV ? parseFloat(existingEV.probSecond) : 12.5}
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step="0.01"
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min="0"
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max="100"
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className="w-20 text-center"
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/>
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</TableCell>
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<TableCell>
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<Input
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form={formId}
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type="number"
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name="probThird"
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defaultValue={existingEV ? parseFloat(existingEV.probThird) : 12.5}
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step="0.01"
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min="0"
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max="100"
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className="w-20 text-center"
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/>
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</TableCell>
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<TableCell>
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<Input
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form={formId}
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type="number"
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name="probFourth"
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defaultValue={existingEV ? parseFloat(existingEV.probFourth) : 12.5}
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step="0.01"
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min="0"
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max="100"
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className="w-20 text-center"
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/>
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</TableCell>
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<TableCell>
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<Input
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form={formId}
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type="number"
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name="probFifth"
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defaultValue={existingEV ? parseFloat(existingEV.probFifth) : 12.5}
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step="0.01"
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min="0"
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max="100"
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className="w-20 text-center"
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/>
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</TableCell>
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<TableCell>
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<Input
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form={formId}
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type="number"
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name="probSixth"
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defaultValue={existingEV ? parseFloat(existingEV.probSixth) : 12.5}
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step="0.01"
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min="0"
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max="100"
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className="w-20 text-center"
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/>
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</TableCell>
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<TableCell>
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<Input
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form={formId}
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type="number"
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name="probSeventh"
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defaultValue={existingEV ? parseFloat(existingEV.probSeventh) : 12.5}
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step="0.01"
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min="0"
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max="100"
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className="w-20 text-center"
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/>
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</TableCell>
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<TableCell>
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<Input
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form={formId}
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type="number"
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name="probEighth"
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defaultValue={existingEV ? parseFloat(existingEV.probEighth) : 12.5}
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step="0.01"
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min="0"
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max="100"
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className="w-20 text-center"
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/>
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</TableCell>
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<TableCell className="text-center font-semibold">
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{existingEV ? parseFloat(existingEV.expectedValue).toFixed(2) : "-"}
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</TableCell>
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<TableCell>
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<Form method="post" id={formId}>
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<input type="hidden" name="participantId" value={participant.id} />
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<input type="hidden" name="source" value="manual" />
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<Button type="submit" size="sm">
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<Save className="h-4 w-4 mr-1" />
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Save
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</Button>
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</Form>
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</TableCell>
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</TableRow>
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);
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})}
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</TableBody>
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</Table>
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{participants.length === 0 && (
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<p className="text-center text-gray-500 py-8">
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No participants found. Please add participants to this sports season first.
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</p>
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)}
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</CardContent>
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</Card>
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</div>
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);
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}
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