After an LLWS simulation, a team locked into the 5th-6th tier and one
locked into the 7th-8th tier both showed 20 points EV. They should show
25 and 15.
The simulator and calculateEV were both right. A team locked into the
5-6 tier comes out of llws-simulator at probFifth = probSixth = 0.5, and
against DEFAULT_SCORING_RULES (100/70/50/40/25/25/15/15) that is 25 —
matching calculateBracketPoints, which already knows llws_20 splits 5-8
into two tiers. The Admin -> Expected Values page just wasn't using that
table. It hardcoded its own stale copy:
const SCORING = [100, 70, 45, 45, 20, 20, 20, 20] as const;
0.5*20 + 0.5*20 = 20 for either tier.
It is not LLWS-specific. Four places carried that same stale table, and
it stayed invisible because a standard single-elimination bracket puts
all four quarterfinal losers in one tier worth avg(25,25,15,15) = 20 —
the same number. It only diverges for the templates that split 5-8
(llws_20, afl_10) and those with a distinct 3rd/4th (llws_20, fifa_48,
where 45/45 should be 50/40). Two of the four *persist* EVs computed
that way, so the wrong values reached the database:
- expected-values.tsx displayed EV, the total, and the sort order
- expected-values.server manual EV entry, written to expected_value
- golf-skills.tsx simulation EVs + snapshots, written
- surface-elo.tsx simulation EVs + snapshots, written
All four now use the shared DEFAULT_SCORING_RULES. probability-updater
had a fourth inline copy with the right values; it is folded in too so
there is one table left. The page's 340 total-EV invariant is unchanged
— both tables sum to 340.
A second path collapses the same two tiers, this time in real fantasy
points. calculateBracketPoints falls back to the flat avg([5,6,7,8])
when bracketTemplateId is null, and four call sites resolved the
template by taking an arbitrary scoringEvents row for the sports season
— unordered, and not filtered to rows that actually carry a template. A
season can own several events (a bracket plus schedule events, or a
re-created bracket beside a stale one), so a null row wins at random and
llws_20 is lost. New getBracketTemplateIdsForSportsSeasons in
models/bracket-template.ts filters to events with a template and takes
the most recent, the same rule llws-simulator uses to pick its bracket
event; standings, calculateTeamScore, calculateTeamProjectedScore and
getDraftedParticipantsWithPoints all go through it.
Tests: evFromProbs pinned to 25 / 15 / 20-for-a-single-5-8-tier and the
340 invariant; the new lookup against a mixed set of events; and two
llws-simulator tests that play out a full U.S. side so a team really is
locked into each tier and must come out at exactly 50/50 across it.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01EmUdy42Rpgx9qZTnpQwirz
7ec17e417d