7fa88fc0ef
* Add projected-wins input mode to admin Elo Ratings page Admins can now enter projected season win totals instead of raw Elo numbers on the Elo Ratings page. Wins are auto-converted to Elo using the inverse formula and stored as sourceElo, keeping the rest of the simulation pipeline unchanged. - Add `projectedWinsToElo` / `eloToProjectedWins` to probability-engine - Add `simulator-config.ts` centralising per-sport season length, parity factor, and average opponent Elo (AFL, NFL, NBA, NHL, MLB, WNBA) - Admin Elo Ratings page: toggle between Elo and Projected Wins input modes; bulk import parses wins format; existing sourceElo back-fills the wins field on load - AFL simulator now reads sourceElo from participantExpectedValues first, falling back to hardcoded TEAMS_DATA then 1400 Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com> * Fix lint errors in simulator-config tests and probability-engine - Replace non-null assertions (`!`) with optional chaining (`?.`) in simulator-config tests - Remove redundant type annotations on default parameters in probability-engine Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com> --------- Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
89 lines
2.6 KiB
TypeScript
89 lines
2.6 KiB
TypeScript
/**
|
|
* Simulator Configuration
|
|
*
|
|
* Per-sport parameters used by simulators and admin UI tools.
|
|
* Centralizes season length, parity factors, and other sport-specific
|
|
* constants so they can be shared between simulators and the Elo Ratings
|
|
* admin page (e.g., for projected wins → Elo conversion).
|
|
*/
|
|
|
|
import type { SimulatorType } from "./registry";
|
|
|
|
export interface SimulatorConfig {
|
|
/** Total regular season games per team in this sport. */
|
|
seasonGames: number;
|
|
/** Elo parity factor for single-game win probability.
|
|
* P(A) = 1 / (1 + 10^((eloB - eloA) / parityFactor))
|
|
* Higher = more unpredictable per game. */
|
|
parityFactor: number;
|
|
/** Average opponent Elo — used for season projections against a generic opponent. */
|
|
averageOpponentElo: number;
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
const CONFIG: Record<SimulatorType, SimulatorConfig | null> = {
|
|
afl_bracket: {
|
|
seasonGames: 23,
|
|
parityFactor: 450,
|
|
averageOpponentElo: 1500,
|
|
},
|
|
nfl_bracket: {
|
|
seasonGames: 17,
|
|
parityFactor: 400,
|
|
averageOpponentElo: 1500,
|
|
},
|
|
nba_bracket: {
|
|
seasonGames: 82,
|
|
parityFactor: 400,
|
|
averageOpponentElo: 1500,
|
|
},
|
|
nhl_bracket: {
|
|
seasonGames: 82,
|
|
// NHL is the highest-parity major North American league — roughly 1 in 3 games
|
|
// goes to overtime/shootout and favourites win far less reliably than in NBA/NFL.
|
|
// 1000 was calibrated so that a team projected at 55 wins (67%) maps to ~1570 Elo,
|
|
// which keeps the spread tight and reflects the empirical upset rate.
|
|
parityFactor: 1000,
|
|
averageOpponentElo: 1500,
|
|
},
|
|
mlb_bracket: {
|
|
seasonGames: 162,
|
|
parityFactor: 400,
|
|
averageOpponentElo: 1500,
|
|
},
|
|
wnba_bracket: {
|
|
seasonGames: 44,
|
|
parityFactor: 400,
|
|
averageOpponentElo: 1500,
|
|
},
|
|
// Simulators below don't use projected-wins → Elo conversion.
|
|
// They can be populated later if needed.
|
|
f1_standings: null,
|
|
indycar_standings: null,
|
|
golf_qualifying_points: null,
|
|
playoff_bracket: null,
|
|
ucl_bracket: null,
|
|
ncaam_bracket: null,
|
|
ncaaw_bracket: null,
|
|
snooker_bracket: null,
|
|
tennis_qualifying_points: null,
|
|
world_cup: null,
|
|
darts_bracket: null,
|
|
cs2_major_qualifying_points: null,
|
|
ncaa_football_bracket: null,
|
|
llws_bracket: null,
|
|
};
|
|
|
|
/**
|
|
* Get the simulator config for a given simulator type.
|
|
* Returns null for simulator types that don't have season-game / Elo config.
|
|
*/
|
|
export function getSimulatorConfig(simulatorType: SimulatorType): SimulatorConfig | null {
|
|
return CONFIG[simulatorType];
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
/**
|
|
* Check if a simulator type supports projected-wins → Elo conversion.
|
|
*/
|
|
export function supportsProjectedWins(simulatorType: SimulatorType): boolean {
|
|
return CONFIG[simulatorType] !== null;
|
|
}
|