brackt/app/models/scoring-calculator.ts
Chris Parsons 840212c4f8 feat: implement sports season expected value calculations and probability updates
- Added loader and action functions for managing expected values in sports seasons.
- Implemented UI for recalculating probabilities based on participant results.
- Created a service to update probabilities after results are finalized, including handling finished and unfinished participants.
- Developed tests for the probability updater service to ensure correct functionality.
- Introduced a preview feature to show potential changes before applying updates.
2025-11-21 22:05:50 -08:00

867 lines
26 KiB
TypeScript

import { database } from "~/database/context";
import * as schema from "~/database/schema";
import { eq, and, inArray } from "drizzle-orm";
import { getScoringRules, calculateFantasyPoints, calculateAveragedPoints } from "./scoring-rules";
import { getSeasonResults } from "./participant-season-result";
import { updateProbabilitiesAfterResult } from "~/services/probability-updater";
/**
* Core scoring calculation engine
* This file contains the logic for calculating fantasy points based on participant results
*/
export type ScoringPattern =
| "single_elimination_playoff"
| "page_playoff"
| "season_standings"
| "qualifying_points";
/**
* Process a playoff event completion and assign final placements
*
* Q19: Admin enters the same placement for all tied participants,
* system automatically shares positions
*
* Q20: Participants eliminated before Elite Eight get 0 points
*
* Phase 2.7: Updated to support template-based brackets with non-scoring rounds
*/
export async function processPlayoffEvent(
eventId: string,
providedDb?: ReturnType<typeof database>
): Promise<void> {
const db = providedDb || database();
// Get the event
const event = await db.query.scoringEvents.findFirst({
where: eq(schema.scoringEvents.id, eventId),
with: {
sportsSeason: {
with: {
seasonSports: {
with: {
season: true,
},
},
},
},
},
});
if (!event) {
throw new Error(`Event ${eventId} not found`);
}
if (!event.playoffRound) {
throw new Error(`Event ${eventId} is not a playoff event`);
}
// Get all matches for this event in the specified round
const matches = await db.query.playoffMatches.findMany({
where: and(
eq(schema.playoffMatches.scoringEventId, eventId),
eq(schema.playoffMatches.round, event.playoffRound)
),
orderBy: (matches, { asc }) => [asc(matches.matchNumber)],
});
// Process based on round
const round = event.playoffRound;
// Check if this is a scoring round
// First try to get isScoring from the match (template-based)
const isScoring = matches[0]?.isScoring ?? true; // Default to true for legacy brackets
// PHASE 5.3: Handle teams that didn't make the playoffs
// Get all participants in the sports season
const allParticipants = await db.query.participants.findMany({
where: eq(schema.participants.sportsSeasonId, event.sportsSeasonId),
});
// Get all participant IDs that are in ANY playoff match (winners or losers)
const allMatches = await db.query.playoffMatches.findMany({
where: eq(schema.playoffMatches.scoringEventId, eventId),
});
const participantsInBracket = new Set<string>();
for (const match of allMatches) {
if (match.winnerId) participantsInBracket.add(match.winnerId);
if (match.loserId) participantsInBracket.add(match.loserId);
if (match.participant1Id) participantsInBracket.add(match.participant1Id);
if (match.participant2Id) participantsInBracket.add(match.participant2Id);
}
// Mark participants NOT in the bracket as eliminated (didn't make playoffs)
for (const participant of allParticipants) {
if (!participantsInBracket.has(participant.id)) {
// Check if they already have a result (don't overwrite)
const existingResult = await db.query.participantResults.findFirst({
where: and(
eq(schema.participantResults.participantId, participant.id),
eq(schema.participantResults.sportsSeasonId, event.sportsSeasonId)
),
});
if (!existingResult) {
await upsertParticipantResult(
participant.id,
event.sportsSeasonId,
0, // 0 = didn't make playoffs, eliminated
db
);
}
}
}
// Get season scoring rules for the first affected season
// (all seasons should have their own rules, but we use the event's sports season to find one)
const seasonSport = event.sportsSeason.seasonSports[0];
if (!seasonSport) {
throw new Error(`No fantasy seasons found for sports season ${event.sportsSeasonId}`);
}
const scoringRules = await getScoringRules(seasonSport.seasonId, db);
if (!scoringRules) {
throw new Error(`Scoring rules not found for season ${seasonSport.seasonId}`);
}
// If this is a non-scoring round, award 0 points (Q20)
if (!isScoring) {
for (const match of matches) {
if (match.loserId) {
await upsertParticipantResult(
match.loserId,
event.sportsSeasonId,
0, // 0 placement = 0 points for early elimination
db
);
}
}
}
// AFL-specific rounds (Phase 3.3)
else if (round === "Elimination Finals") {
// AFL: Elimination Finals losers share 7th-8th
for (const match of matches) {
if (match.loserId) {
await upsertParticipantResult(
match.loserId,
event.sportsSeasonId,
7, // Store as placement 7 (first shared placement for 7-8)
db
);
}
}
} else if (round === "Semi-Finals" && event.bracketTemplateId === "afl_10") {
// AFL: Semi-Finals losers share 5th-6th
for (const match of matches) {
if (match.loserId) {
await upsertParticipantResult(
match.loserId,
event.sportsSeasonId,
5, // Store as placement 5 (first shared placement for 5-6)
db
);
}
}
}
// Standard playoff rounds
else if (round === "Finals" || round === "Championship" || round === "Super Bowl" || round === "NBA Finals" || round === "Grand Final") {
// Winner gets 1st, loser gets 2nd
const finalMatch = matches[0];
if (!finalMatch || !finalMatch.winnerId || !finalMatch.loserId) {
throw new Error("Finals match is not complete");
}
// Update or create participant results for winner
await upsertParticipantResult(
finalMatch.winnerId,
event.sportsSeasonId,
1,
db
);
// Update or create participant results for loser
await upsertParticipantResult(
finalMatch.loserId,
event.sportsSeasonId,
2,
db
);
} else if (round === "Semifinals" || round === "Final Four" || round === "Conference Finals" || round === "Conference Championship" || round === "Preliminary Finals") {
// Losers share 3rd/4th
for (const match of matches) {
if (match.loserId) {
await upsertParticipantResult(
match.loserId,
event.sportsSeasonId,
3, // Store as placement 3 (the first shared placement)
db
);
}
}
} else if (round === "Quarterfinals" || round === "Elite Eight" || round === "Divisional" || round === "Conference Semifinals") {
// Losers share 5th-8th
for (const match of matches) {
if (match.loserId) {
await upsertParticipantResult(
match.loserId,
event.sportsSeasonId,
5, // Store as placement 5 (the first shared placement)
db
);
}
}
}
// Recalculate standings for all affected leagues
await recalculateAffectedLeagues(event.sportsSeasonId, db);
// Auto-trigger probability recalculation (Phase 5.3)
try {
await updateProbabilitiesAfterResult(event.sportsSeasonId, true);
console.log(
`[ScoringCalculator] Auto-updated probabilities for sports season ${event.sportsSeasonId}`
);
} catch (error) {
console.error(
`[ScoringCalculator] Failed to auto-update probabilities for sports season ${event.sportsSeasonId}:`,
error
);
}
}
/**
* Helper to upsert participant result
*/
async function upsertParticipantResult(
participantId: string,
sportsSeasonId: string,
finalPosition: number,
db: ReturnType<typeof database>
): Promise<void> {
const existing = await db.query.participantResults.findFirst({
where: and(
eq(schema.participantResults.participantId, participantId),
eq(schema.participantResults.sportsSeasonId, sportsSeasonId)
),
});
if (existing) {
await db
.update(schema.participantResults)
.set({
finalPosition,
updatedAt: new Date(),
})
.where(eq(schema.participantResults.id, existing.id));
} else {
await db.insert(schema.participantResults).values({
participantId,
sportsSeasonId,
finalPosition,
});
}
}
/**
* Process a qualifying event completion and update QP totals
* Phase 3.2 Implementation
*
* Q4: Manual finalization after all majors complete
* Q5: Ties in QP handled by sharing placements
*/
export async function processQualifyingEvent(
eventId: string,
providedDb?: ReturnType<typeof database>
): Promise<void> {
const db = providedDb || database();
// Import qualifying points functions
const { getEventResults } = await import("./event-result");
const { getQPForPlacement, recalculateParticipantQP } = await import("./qualifying-points");
// Get the event
const event = await db.query.scoringEvents.findFirst({
where: eq(schema.scoringEvents.id, eventId),
with: {
sportsSeason: true,
},
});
if (!event) {
throw new Error(`Event ${eventId} not found`);
}
if (!event.isQualifyingEvent) {
throw new Error(`Event ${eventId} is not a qualifying event`);
}
// Get all event results for this qualifying event
const results = await getEventResults(eventId, db);
// Check if this was already processed (for majorsCompleted counter)
const wasAlreadyProcessed = results.some(r => r.qualifyingPointsAwarded && parseFloat(r.qualifyingPointsAwarded) > 0);
// Group results by placement to handle ties
const placementGroups = new Map<number, typeof results>();
for (const result of results) {
if (result.placement) {
const group = placementGroups.get(result.placement) || [];
group.push(result);
placementGroups.set(result.placement, group);
}
}
// Process each placement group and update event_results with QP awarded
for (const [placement, group] of placementGroups) {
const tieCount = group.length;
// Calculate total QP for the positions this group occupies
// A tie for Nth place occupies positions N through N + tieCount - 1
let totalQP = 0;
for (let pos = placement; pos < placement + tieCount; pos++) {
const qpForPos = await getQPForPlacement(event.sportsSeasonId, pos, db);
totalQP += qpForPos;
}
// Divide equally among tied participants
const qpPerParticipant = totalQP / tieCount;
// Update the event result with the QP awarded
for (const result of group) {
await db
.update(schema.eventResults)
.set({
qualifyingPointsAwarded: qpPerParticipant.toString(),
updatedAt: new Date(),
})
.where(eq(schema.eventResults.id, result.id));
}
}
// Recalculate totals for all participants from scratch
// This is the source of truth - sums all their event_results
const participantIds = new Set(results.map(r => r.participantId));
for (const participantId of participantIds) {
await recalculateParticipantQP(participantId, event.sportsSeasonId, db);
}
// Increment majorsCompleted counter (only if this is the first time processing)
if (!wasAlreadyProcessed) {
const sportsSeason = event.sportsSeason;
await db
.update(schema.sportsSeasons)
.set({
majorsCompleted: (sportsSeason.majorsCompleted || 0) + 1,
updatedAt: new Date(),
})
.where(eq(schema.sportsSeasons.id, event.sportsSeasonId));
}
console.log(
`[ScoringCalculator] Processed qualifying event ${eventId}: awarded QP to ${results.length} participants`
);
}
/**
* Finalize qualifying points and convert to fantasy placements
* Called manually by admin when all majors are complete
* Phase 3.2 Implementation
*
* Q4: Manual finalization (admin button)
* Q5: QP ties handled by sharing placements
* Q19: Tie entry uses same placement, system auto-calculates shared positions
*/
export async function finalizeQualifyingPoints(
sportsSeasonId: string,
providedDb?: ReturnType<typeof database>
): Promise<void> {
const db = providedDb || database();
// Import qualifying points functions
const { getQPStandings, updateFinalRankings } = await import("./qualifying-points");
// Get all participants ranked by total QP (highest first)
const standings = await getQPStandings(sportsSeasonId, db);
if (standings.length === 0) {
throw new Error(`No qualifying points standings found for sports season ${sportsSeasonId}`);
}
// Update final rankings in participant_qualifying_totals
await updateFinalRankings(sportsSeasonId, db);
// Group participants by QP total to handle ties (Q5, Q19)
const groupedByQP = new Map<string, typeof standings>();
for (const standing of standings) {
const qp = standing.totalQualifyingPoints;
if (!groupedByQP.has(qp)) {
groupedByQP.set(qp, []);
}
groupedByQP.get(qp)!.push(standing);
}
// Sort groups by QP (descending)
const sortedGroups = Array.from(groupedByQP.entries()).sort((a, b) => {
return parseFloat(b[0]) - parseFloat(a[0]);
});
// Assign fantasy placements (1-8) based on QP ranking
let currentPlacement = 1;
for (const [_, group] of sortedGroups) {
// Stop if we've gone beyond the top 8 fantasy placements
if (currentPlacement > 8) break;
const participantsInGroup = group.length;
// Calculate how many placements this group shares
const maxPlacementForGroup = Math.min(8, currentPlacement + participantsInGroup - 1);
const actualParticipantsScoring = maxPlacementForGroup - currentPlacement + 1;
// Assign placements to participants in this group
for (let i = 0; i < Math.min(participantsInGroup, actualParticipantsScoring); i++) {
const standing = group[i];
await upsertParticipantResult(
standing.participantId,
sportsSeasonId,
currentPlacement,
db
);
}
// If there are more participants than scoring positions, assign 0 to the rest
for (let i = actualParticipantsScoring; i < participantsInGroup; i++) {
const standing = group[i];
await upsertParticipantResult(
standing.participantId,
sportsSeasonId,
0, // Beyond top 8
db
);
}
// Move to next placement group
currentPlacement += participantsInGroup;
}
// Assign 0 points to any remaining participants beyond top 8
if (currentPlacement <= standings.length) {
for (let i = currentPlacement - 1; i < standings.length; i++) {
const standing = standings[i];
const hasResult = await db.query.participantResults.findFirst({
where: and(
eq(schema.participantResults.participantId, standing.participantId),
eq(schema.participantResults.sportsSeasonId, sportsSeasonId)
),
});
if (!hasResult) {
await upsertParticipantResult(
standing.participantId,
sportsSeasonId,
0,
db
);
}
}
}
// Mark sports season as finalized
await db
.update(schema.sportsSeasons)
.set({
qualifyingPointsFinalized: true,
updatedAt: new Date(),
})
.where(eq(schema.sportsSeasons.id, sportsSeasonId));
// Trigger recalculation for all affected leagues
await recalculateAffectedLeagues(sportsSeasonId, db);
// Auto-trigger probability recalculation (Phase 5.3)
try {
await updateProbabilitiesAfterResult(sportsSeasonId, true);
console.log(
`[ScoringCalculator] Auto-updated probabilities for sports season ${sportsSeasonId}`
);
} catch (error) {
console.error(
`[ScoringCalculator] Failed to auto-update probabilities for sports season ${sportsSeasonId}:`,
error
);
}
console.log(
`[ScoringCalculator] Finalized qualifying points for sports season ${sportsSeasonId}: ${standings.length} participants processed`
);
}
/**
* Process season standings (F1) and assign final placements
*
* Q7: For F1, we show current F1 points during the season, then assign fantasy points at the end
* Q8: Just final standings, not individual races
* Q14: Store current running total, manual update with API future
* Q13/Q19: Ties handled by admin entering same position, system auto-shares placements
*/
export async function processSeasonStandings(
sportsSeasonId: string,
providedDb?: ReturnType<typeof database>
): Promise<void> {
const db = providedDb || database();
// Get all season results for this sports season, sorted by standings
const seasonResults = await getSeasonResults(sportsSeasonId, db);
// Group participants by position to handle ties
const positionGroups: Record<number, string[]> = {};
for (const result of seasonResults) {
const position = result.currentPosition;
if (position === null) continue; // Skip participants without a position
if (!positionGroups[position]) {
positionGroups[position] = [];
}
positionGroups[position].push(result.participantId);
}
// Get sorted positions
const positions = Object.keys(positionGroups)
.map(Number)
.sort((a, b) => a - b);
// Assign fantasy placements (1-8) based on standings
let currentPlacement = 1;
for (const position of positions) {
const participantIds = positionGroups[position];
// Stop if we've gone beyond the top 8 fantasy placements
if (currentPlacement > 8) break;
// Calculate how many placements this group shares
const participantsInGroup = participantIds.length;
// If this group would exceed position 8, only some participants get points
const maxPlacementForGroup = Math.min(8, currentPlacement + participantsInGroup - 1);
const actualParticipantsScoring = maxPlacementForGroup - currentPlacement + 1;
// Determine if we should assign placements to this group
if (currentPlacement <= 8) {
// All participants tied at this position get the first placement in the range
// (e.g., if 4 people tie for 5th place, they all get placement 5)
// The scoring system will handle averaging the points for positions 5, 6, 7, 8
for (let i = 0; i < Math.min(participantIds.length, actualParticipantsScoring); i++) {
const participantId = participantIds[i];
await upsertParticipantResult(
participantId,
sportsSeasonId,
currentPlacement,
db
);
}
// If there are more participants than scoring positions, assign 0 to the rest
for (let i = actualParticipantsScoring; i < participantIds.length; i++) {
const participantId = participantIds[i];
await upsertParticipantResult(
participantId,
sportsSeasonId,
0, // Beyond top 8
db
);
}
} else {
// Position is beyond top 8, assign 0 points
for (const participantId of participantIds) {
await upsertParticipantResult(
participantId,
sportsSeasonId,
0,
db
);
}
}
// Move to next placement group
currentPlacement += participantsInGroup;
}
// Trigger recalculation for all affected leagues
await recalculateAffectedLeagues(sportsSeasonId, db);
// Auto-trigger probability recalculation (Phase 5.3)
try {
await updateProbabilitiesAfterResult(sportsSeasonId, true);
console.log(
`[ScoringCalculator] Auto-updated probabilities for sports season ${sportsSeasonId}`
);
} catch (error) {
console.error(
`[ScoringCalculator] Failed to auto-update probabilities for sports season ${sportsSeasonId}:`,
error
);
}
console.log(
`[ScoringCalculator] Processed season standings for sports season ${sportsSeasonId}`
);
}
/**
* Calculate total fantasy points for a team in a specific season
* Sums points from all drafted participants based on their final placements
*/
export async function calculateTeamScore(
teamId: string,
seasonId: string,
providedDb?: ReturnType<typeof database>
): Promise<{
totalPoints: number;
placementCounts: Record<number, number>;
participantsCompleted: number;
participantsTotal: number;
}> {
const db = providedDb || database();
// Get season scoring rules
const scoringRules = await getScoringRules(seasonId, db);
if (!scoringRules) {
throw new Error(`Season ${seasonId} not found`);
}
// Get all draft picks for this team
const picks = await db.query.draftPicks.findMany({
where: and(
eq(schema.draftPicks.teamId, teamId),
eq(schema.draftPicks.seasonId, seasonId)
),
with: {
participant: {
with: {
results: true,
},
},
},
});
let totalPoints = 0;
const placementCounts: Record<number, number> = {
1: 0,
2: 0,
3: 0,
4: 0,
5: 0,
6: 0,
7: 0,
8: 0,
};
let participantsCompleted = 0;
for (const pick of picks) {
const result = pick.participant.results[0]; // Should only be one result per participant
if (result && result.finalPosition) {
const points = calculateFantasyPoints(result.finalPosition, scoringRules);
totalPoints += points;
participantsCompleted++;
// Track placement for tiebreakers
if (result.finalPosition >= 1 && result.finalPosition <= 8) {
placementCounts[result.finalPosition]++;
}
}
}
return {
totalPoints,
placementCounts,
participantsCompleted,
participantsTotal: picks.length,
};
}
/**
* Compare two teams for ranking purposes using tiebreaker logic
* Returns: negative if teamA ranks higher, positive if teamB ranks higher, 0 if tied
*
* Tiebreaker order:
* 1. Total points (higher is better)
* 2. Number of 1st place finishes (higher is better)
* 3. Number of 2nd place finishes (higher is better)
* 4. Continue through all placements (3rd, 4th, ..., 8th)
*/
function compareTeamsForRanking(
teamA: {
totalPoints: number;
placementCounts: Record<number, number>;
},
teamB: {
totalPoints: number;
placementCounts: Record<number, number>;
}
): number {
// First compare by total points (descending)
if (teamA.totalPoints !== teamB.totalPoints) {
return teamB.totalPoints - teamA.totalPoints;
}
// If points are tied, apply tiebreaker cascade
for (let placement = 1; placement <= 8; placement++) {
const countA = teamA.placementCounts[placement] || 0;
const countB = teamB.placementCounts[placement] || 0;
if (countA !== countB) {
return countB - countA; // More of this placement is better
}
}
// Completely tied
return 0;
}
/**
* Assign ranks to teams based on their scores and tiebreakers
* Teams with identical scores and placements will share the same rank
*/
function assignRanks(
teams: Array<{
teamId: string;
totalPoints: number;
placementCounts: Record<number, number>;
}>
): Map<string, number> {
// Sort teams by ranking criteria
const sorted = [...teams].sort(compareTeamsForRanking);
const ranks = new Map<string, number>();
let currentRank = 1;
for (let i = 0; i < sorted.length; i++) {
const team = sorted[i];
// Check if this team is tied with the previous team
if (i > 0) {
const prevTeam = sorted[i - 1];
const comparison = compareTeamsForRanking(team, prevTeam);
if (comparison !== 0) {
// Not tied, advance rank
currentRank = i + 1;
}
// If comparison === 0, keep the same rank (tie)
}
ranks.set(team.teamId, currentRank);
}
return ranks;
}
/**
* Recalculate standings for all teams in a season
* Called after any scoring event completes or participant results change
*
* Phase 4.1: Implements tiebreaker logic and ranking
*/
export async function recalculateStandings(
seasonId: string,
providedDb?: ReturnType<typeof database>
): Promise<void> {
const db = providedDb || database();
const teams = await db.query.teams.findMany({
where: eq(schema.teams.seasonId, seasonId),
});
// Calculate scores for all teams
const teamScores = await Promise.all(
teams.map(async (team) => {
const score = await calculateTeamScore(team.id, seasonId, db);
return {
teamId: team.id,
totalPoints: score.totalPoints,
placementCounts: score.placementCounts,
participantsCompleted: score.participantsCompleted,
participantsTotal: score.participantsTotal,
};
})
);
// Assign ranks based on tiebreaker logic
const ranks = assignRanks(teamScores);
// Update team standings with scores and ranks
for (const teamScore of teamScores) {
const newRank = ranks.get(teamScore.teamId) || 1;
// Get existing standing to preserve previousRank
const existing = await db.query.teamStandings.findFirst({
where: and(
eq(schema.teamStandings.teamId, teamScore.teamId),
eq(schema.teamStandings.seasonId, seasonId)
),
});
const standingData = {
totalPoints: teamScore.totalPoints.toString(),
currentRank: newRank,
previousRank: existing ? existing.currentRank : null,
firstPlaceCount: teamScore.placementCounts[1],
secondPlaceCount: teamScore.placementCounts[2],
thirdPlaceCount: teamScore.placementCounts[3],
fourthPlaceCount: teamScore.placementCounts[4],
fifthPlaceCount: teamScore.placementCounts[5],
sixthPlaceCount: teamScore.placementCounts[6],
seventhPlaceCount: teamScore.placementCounts[7],
eighthPlaceCount: teamScore.placementCounts[8],
participantsRemaining:
teamScore.participantsTotal - teamScore.participantsCompleted,
calculatedAt: new Date(),
};
if (existing) {
await db
.update(schema.teamStandings)
.set(standingData)
.where(eq(schema.teamStandings.id, existing.id));
} else {
await db.insert(schema.teamStandings).values({
teamId: teamScore.teamId,
seasonId,
...standingData,
});
}
}
console.log(`[ScoringCalculator] Recalculated standings for season ${seasonId}: ${teams.length} teams ranked`);
}
/**
* Recalculate standings for all leagues that include a specific sports season
* Called after a sports season event completes
*/
export async function recalculateAffectedLeagues(
sportsSeasonId: string,
providedDb?: ReturnType<typeof database>
): Promise<void> {
const db = providedDb || database();
// Get all fantasy seasons that include this sports season
const seasonSports = await db.query.seasonSports.findMany({
where: eq(schema.seasonSports.sportsSeasonId, sportsSeasonId),
});
const seasonIds = seasonSports.map((ss) => ss.seasonId);
// Recalculate each affected season
for (const seasonId of seasonIds) {
await recalculateStandings(seasonId, db);
}
console.log(
`[ScoringCalculator] Recalculated ${seasonIds.length} affected season(s) for sports season ${sportsSeasonId}`
);
}