4142b21c55
Two problems addressed:
1. Favorites' P(1st) was too sharp (e.g. NHL top teams ~20% vs ~12% implied).
- The NHL simulator hardcoded its parity factor (1000) and ignored the
season config's parityFactor, so the knob meant to flatten the
distribution did nothing. It also re-blended raw futures odds into every
game on top of the odds->Elo conversion, double-counting the same signal.
- NHL now reads parityFactor/iterations/seasonGames/overtimeRate from config
and no longer re-blends odds per game (odds enter once, via the central
odds->Elo resolver). Honoring parity 2500 flattens a top team from ~29% to
~13% title odds.
2. "Season Config" and "Input Policy" were two forms over the same stored
object that didn't reflect each other, and the engine-knob half was inert
for many simulators.
- Every simulator now reads its engine knobs (iterations everywhere;
parityFactor for all Elo-based sims) from the merged config, passed in by
the runner via the Simulator interface. Defaults equal the former
hardcoded constants, so behavior is unchanged unless a season overrides.
- The admin simulator page is now a single "Simulator Configuration" card
with structured Engine and Input-derivation sections (profile-driven, so
each sport shows only the knobs it honors) plus an Advanced raw-JSON
escape hatch — all writing the same config.
Also: centralized the duplicated configNumber helpers into config-access.ts;
the central odds->Elo resolver now maps onto the configured Elo floor/ceiling
so those bounds set the odds-derived spread (a real flattening dial).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01PAFMogMkFJf52YpHyCDvuf
32 lines
1.3 KiB
TypeScript
32 lines
1.3 KiB
TypeScript
import { NCAABasketballSimulator } from "./ncaa-basketball-simulator";
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import type { Simulator, SimulationResult } from "./types";
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import { optionalPositiveNumber } from "./config-access";
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const KENPOM_SCALE_FACTOR = 7.5;
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/**
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* NCAAM neutral-court win probability using a KenPom-like adjusted efficiency
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* margin. Ratings are season-scoped simulator inputs, not hardcoded data.
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*/
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export function kenpomWinProbability(netrtgA: number, netrtgB: number): number {
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return 1 / (1 + Math.exp(-(netrtgA - netrtgB) / KENPOM_SCALE_FACTOR));
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}
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function kenpomWinProbabilityWithScale(scaleFactor: number): (netrtgA: number, netrtgB: number) => number {
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return (netrtgA, netrtgB) => 1 / (1 + Math.exp(-(netrtgA - netrtgB) / scaleFactor));
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}
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export class NCAAMSimulator implements Simulator {
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private readonly simulator = new NCAABasketballSimulator({
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source: "ncaam_bracket_rating",
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missingRatingName: "KenPom-like rating",
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selectionRatingDivisor: 8,
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winProbability: kenpomWinProbability,
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getWinProbability: (config) =>
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kenpomWinProbabilityWithScale(optionalPositiveNumber(config.ratingScaleFactor, KENPOM_SCALE_FACTOR)),
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});
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simulate(sportsSeasonId: string): Promise<SimulationResult[]> {
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return this.simulator.simulate(sportsSeasonId);
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}
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}
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