brackt/app/routes/admin.sports-seasons.$id.darts-elo.tsx
Chris Parsons 8c3663e01b
Add PDC World Darts Championship simulator with Elo-based bracket (#248)
Fixes #123

* Add PDC World Darts Championship simulator (128-player bracket)

- New DartsSimulator: 128-player single-elimination, 7 rounds with
  PDC-accurate best-of-sets formats (bo3/bo5/bo5/bo7/bo7/bo11/bo13).
  ELO_DIVISOR=500 via set-level Bernoulli model. Two simulation paths:
  Path A (bracket drawn) simulates from actual DB matches; Path B
  (pre-bracket) seeds top 32 by world ranking in fixed positions and
  randomly draws the remaining 96 per simulation run (50,000 iterations).
- darts_bracket added to simulatorTypeEnum and simulator registry.
- world_ranking nullable integer column added to participant_expected_values
  (migration 0067); batchSaveSourceElos now accepts and persists it.
- Admin route /admin/sports-seasons/:id/darts-elo: bulk import with format
  "Player Name, 2099, 1" (name, Elo, optional world ranking), fuzzy name
  matching, auto-runs simulation and updates EV/snapshots on save.
- DARTS_128 bracket template added (scoring starts at Quarterfinals).
- 30 unit tests: math helpers, bracket seeding structure, Path A/B integration.

https://claude.ai/code/session_01WZ6FjMmC2eBeZ1564M9Ruz

* Review fixes: pre-compute hot-loop invariants, import normalizeName

- Pre-compute seededSlots and getSeededMatchOrder(32) before the 50k
  simulation loop — was being recomputed every iteration
- Pad unseeded pool to 96 once before the loop instead of inside it
- Inline bracket-building in the hot loop using pre-computed seededSlots;
  removes the per-iteration call to buildR1Bracket/getSeededMatchOrder
- Remove dead SEEDED_R1_PAIRS constant (was never referenced)
- Import normalizeName from ~/lib/fuzzy-match instead of redefining it locally

https://claude.ai/code/session_01WZ6FjMmC2eBeZ1564M9Ruz

* Fix lint failures: unused vars, eqeqeq, toSorted

- Remove unused seededSet/unseededSet variables in test
- Replace != null with !== null && !== undefined (eqeqeq rule)
- Replace .sort() with .toSorted() in simulator and route (unicorn/no-array-sort)

https://claude.ai/code/session_01WZ6FjMmC2eBeZ1564M9Ruz

* Fix TS2552: restore seededSet declaration removed during lint fix

https://claude.ai/code/session_01WZ6FjMmC2eBeZ1564M9Ruz

---------

Co-authored-by: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-31 15:37:28 -07:00

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import { Form, redirect, useLoaderData, useActionData, useNavigation } from 'react-router';
import type { Route } from './+types/admin.sports-seasons.$id.darts-elo';
import { logger } from '~/lib/logger';
import { findSportsSeasonById, updateSportsSeason } from '~/models/sports-season';
import { findParticipantsBySportsSeasonId } from '~/models/participant';
import {
getAllParticipantEVsForSeason,
batchSaveSourceElos,
batchUpsertParticipantEVs,
} from '~/models/participant-expected-value';
import { batchUpsertParticipantEvSnapshots } from '~/models/ev-snapshot';
import { getSimulator, type SimulatorType } from '~/services/simulations/registry';
import { calculateEV } from '~/services/ev-calculator';
import { DEFAULT_SCORING_RULES } from '~/lib/scoring-types';
import { recalculateStandings } from '~/models/scoring-calculator';
import { database } from '~/database/context';
import * as schema from '~/database/schema';
import { eq } from 'drizzle-orm';
import { Button } from '~/components/ui/button';
import { Input } from '~/components/ui/input';
import { Label } from '~/components/ui/label';
import { Textarea } from '~/components/ui/textarea';
import {
Card,
CardContent,
CardDescription,
CardHeader,
CardTitle,
} from '~/components/ui/card';
import { useState } from 'react';
import { Loader2, CheckCircle2, AlertCircle } from 'lucide-react';
import { normalizeName } from '~/lib/fuzzy-match';
export function meta({ data }: Route.MetaArgs): Route.MetaDescriptors {
return [{ title: `Darts Elo & Rankings — ${data?.sportsSeason?.name ?? "Sports Season"} - Brackt Admin` }];
}
export async function loader({ params }: Route.LoaderArgs) {
const sportsSeasonId = params.id;
const sportsSeason = await findSportsSeasonById(sportsSeasonId);
if (!sportsSeason) {
throw new Response('Sports season not found', { status: 404 });
}
const participants = await findParticipantsBySportsSeasonId(sportsSeasonId);
const existingEVs = await getAllParticipantEVsForSeason(sportsSeasonId);
const existingData: Record<string, { elo: number | null; ranking: number | null }> = {};
for (const ev of existingEVs) {
existingData[ev.participantId] = {
elo: ev.sourceElo ?? null,
ranking: ev.worldRanking ?? null,
};
}
return { sportsSeason, participants, existingData };
}
interface ActionData {
success?: boolean;
message?: string;
}
export async function action({ request, params }: Route.ActionArgs) {
const sportsSeasonId = params.id;
const formData = await request.formData();
const sportsSeason = await findSportsSeasonById(sportsSeasonId);
if (!sportsSeason) {
return { success: false, message: 'Sports season not found' };
}
const participants = await findParticipantsBySportsSeasonId(sportsSeasonId);
// Parse Elo ratings and world rankings from form
const eloInputs: Array<{ participantId: string; sportsSeasonId: string; sourceElo: number; worldRanking?: number | null }> = [];
for (const participant of participants) {
const eloVal = formData.get(`elo_${participant.id}`) as string;
const rankVal = formData.get(`rank_${participant.id}`) as string;
if (eloVal && eloVal.trim() !== '') {
const elo = Number(eloVal);
if (!isNaN(elo) && elo > 0) {
const ranking = rankVal && rankVal.trim() !== '' ? Number(rankVal) : null;
eloInputs.push({
participantId: participant.id,
sportsSeasonId,
sourceElo: elo,
worldRanking: ranking && !isNaN(ranking) && ranking > 0 ? ranking : null,
});
}
}
}
if (eloInputs.length === 0) {
return { success: false, message: 'Please enter an Elo rating for at least one participant' };
}
if (!sportsSeason.sport?.simulatorType) {
return { success: false, message: 'This sport has no simulator type configured. Set one on the sport in the admin panel.' };
}
if (sportsSeason.simulationStatus === 'running') {
return { success: false, message: 'A simulation is already running. Please wait.' };
}
// Persist Elo ratings and world rankings
await batchSaveSourceElos(eloInputs);
// Auto-run simulation
await updateSportsSeason(sportsSeasonId, { simulationStatus: 'running' });
try {
const simulator = getSimulator(sportsSeason.sport.simulatorType as SimulatorType);
const results = await simulator.simulate(sportsSeasonId);
if (results.length === 0) {
throw new Error('Simulation returned no results.');
}
// Zero out any participants not in simulation results
const simulatedIds = new Set(results.map(r => r.participantId));
const ZERO_PROBS = {
probFirst: 0, probSecond: 0, probThird: 0, probFourth: 0,
probFifth: 0, probSixth: 0, probSeventh: 0, probEighth: 0,
};
const evInputs = [
...results.map(r => ({
participantId: r.participantId,
sportsSeasonId,
probabilities: r.probabilities,
scoringRules: DEFAULT_SCORING_RULES,
source: 'elo_simulation' as const,
})),
...participants
.filter(p => !simulatedIds.has(p.id))
.map(p => ({
participantId: p.id,
sportsSeasonId,
probabilities: ZERO_PROBS,
scoringRules: DEFAULT_SCORING_RULES,
source: 'elo_simulation' as const,
})),
];
await batchUpsertParticipantEVs(evInputs);
// Refresh projected points in team standings
const seasonSports = await database().query.seasonSports.findMany({
where: eq(schema.seasonSports.sportsSeasonId, sportsSeasonId),
});
await Promise.all(seasonSports.map(({ seasonId }) => recalculateStandings(seasonId)));
// EV snapshot
const today = new Date().toISOString().slice(0, 10);
await batchUpsertParticipantEvSnapshots(
results.map(r => ({
participantId: r.participantId,
sportsSeasonId,
snapshotDate: today,
probFirst: r.probabilities.probFirst,
probSecond: r.probabilities.probSecond,
probThird: r.probabilities.probThird,
probFourth: r.probabilities.probFourth,
probFifth: r.probabilities.probFifth,
probSixth: r.probabilities.probSixth,
probSeventh: r.probabilities.probSeventh,
probEighth: r.probabilities.probEighth,
calculatedEV: calculateEV(r.probabilities, DEFAULT_SCORING_RULES),
source: r.source,
}))
);
await updateSportsSeason(sportsSeasonId, { simulationStatus: 'idle' });
} catch (error) {
await updateSportsSeason(sportsSeasonId, { simulationStatus: 'failed' });
logger.error('Error running darts simulation:', error);
return {
success: false,
message: error instanceof Error ? error.message : 'Simulation failed',
};
}
return redirect(`/admin/sports-seasons/${sportsSeasonId}/expected-values`);
}
export default function AdminSportsSeasonDartsElo() {
const { sportsSeason, participants, existingData } = useLoaderData<typeof loader>();
const actionData = useActionData<ActionData>();
const navigation = useNavigation();
const [eloValues, setEloValues] = useState<Record<string, string>>(() => {
const initial: Record<string, string> = {};
participants.forEach(p => {
const d = existingData[p.id];
if (d?.elo !== null && d?.elo !== undefined) initial[p.id] = d.elo.toString();
});
return initial;
});
const [rankValues, setRankValues] = useState<Record<string, string>>(() => {
const initial: Record<string, string> = {};
participants.forEach(p => {
const d = existingData[p.id];
if (d?.ranking !== null && d?.ranking !== undefined) initial[p.id] = d.ranking.toString();
});
return initial;
});
// Bulk import state: "Player Name, 2099, 1" format (name, elo, optional world ranking)
const [bulkText, setBulkText] = useState('');
const [parseResults, setParseResults] = useState<{
matched: Array<{ participantId: string; name: string; elo: number; ranking: number | null; inputName: string }>;
unmatched: Array<{ inputName: string; elo: number; ranking: number | null }>;
} | null>(null);
function findParticipantMatch(inputName: string) {
const normalizedInput = normalizeName(inputName);
const normalized = participants.map(p => ({ p, n: normalizeName(p.name) }));
const exact = normalized.find(({ n }) => n === normalizedInput);
if (exact) return exact.p;
const contains = normalized.find(({ n }) => n.includes(normalizedInput) || normalizedInput.includes(n));
if (contains) return contains.p;
const inputWords = normalizedInput.split(' ').filter(w => w.length > 2);
const overlap = normalized.find(({ n }) => {
const pWords = n.split(' ').filter(w => w.length > 2);
const shared = inputWords.filter(w => pWords.includes(w));
return shared.length > 0 && shared.length >= Math.min(inputWords.length, pWords.length) * 0.5;
});
return overlap?.p ?? null;
}
function parseBulkText() {
// Formats supported:
// "Player Name, 2099, 1" (name, elo, world ranking)
// "Player Name, 2099" (name, elo — ranking omitted)
// "Player Name: 2099: 1" (colon-separated)
const lines = bulkText.split('\n');
const matched: typeof parseResults extends null ? never : NonNullable<typeof parseResults>['matched'] = [];
const unmatched: typeof parseResults extends null ? never : NonNullable<typeof parseResults>['unmatched'] = [];
const seen = new Set<string>();
for (const line of lines) {
const trimmed = line.trim();
if (!trimmed) continue;
// Match "Name, Elo" or "Name, Elo, Ranking" (comma, colon, or tab separated)
const match = /^(.+?)[\s,:\t]+(\d{3,5})(?:[\s,:\t]+(\d{1,3}))?\s*$/.exec(trimmed);
if (!match) continue;
const inputName = match[1].trim();
const elo = parseInt(match[2], 10);
const ranking = match[3] ? parseInt(match[3], 10) : null;
if (isNaN(elo) || elo < 500 || elo > 5000) continue;
if (ranking !== null && (isNaN(ranking) || ranking < 1 || ranking > 256)) continue;
const participant = findParticipantMatch(inputName);
if (participant && !seen.has(participant.id)) {
seen.add(participant.id);
matched.push({ participantId: participant.id, name: participant.name, elo, ranking, inputName });
} else if (!participant) {
unmatched.push({ inputName, elo, ranking });
}
}
setParseResults({ matched, unmatched });
}
function applyMatches() {
if (!parseResults) return;
const newElos = { ...eloValues };
const newRanks = { ...rankValues };
for (const m of parseResults.matched) {
newElos[m.participantId] = m.elo.toString();
if (m.ranking !== null) {
newRanks[m.participantId] = m.ranking.toString();
}
}
setEloValues(newElos);
setRankValues(newRanks);
setParseResults(null);
setBulkText('');
}
const isSubmitting = navigation.state === 'submitting';
// Sort participants for display: by current rank (ascending), then unranked alphabetically
const sortedParticipants = [...participants].toSorted((a, b) => {
const rankA = rankValues[a.id] ? parseInt(rankValues[a.id], 10) : null;
const rankB = rankValues[b.id] ? parseInt(rankValues[b.id], 10) : null;
if (rankA !== null && rankB !== null) return rankA - rankB;
if (rankA !== null) return -1;
if (rankB !== null) return 1;
return a.name.localeCompare(b.name);
});
return (
<div className="container mx-auto py-8">
<div className="mb-8">
<h1 className="text-3xl font-bold mb-2">Darts Elo &amp; World Rankings</h1>
<p className="text-muted-foreground">
{sportsSeason.sport.name} {sportsSeason.name}
</p>
</div>
{/* Bulk Import */}
<Card className="mb-6">
<CardHeader>
<CardTitle>Bulk Import</CardTitle>
<CardDescription>
Paste one player per line. Format:{' '}
<code>Player Name, 2099, 1</code> (name, Elo, world ranking).
World ranking is optional omit it and the simulator will use Elo order for seeding.
Player names are fuzzy-matched to participants.
</CardDescription>
</CardHeader>
<CardContent className="space-y-4">
<Textarea
placeholder={`Luke Littler, 2099, 1\nMichael van Gerwen, 1950, 2\nLuke Humphries, 1947, 3`}
value={bulkText}
onChange={e => { setBulkText(e.target.value); setParseResults(null); }}
rows={10}
className="font-mono text-sm"
/>
<Button type="button" variant="outline" onClick={parseBulkText} disabled={!bulkText.trim()}>
Parse
</Button>
{parseResults && (
<div className="space-y-3">
{parseResults.matched.length > 0 && (
<div>
<div className="flex items-center gap-2 text-sm font-medium text-emerald-400 mb-2">
<CheckCircle2 className="h-4 w-4" />
Matched ({parseResults.matched.length})
</div>
<div className="rounded-md border border-emerald-500/30 bg-emerald-500/10 divide-y divide-emerald-500/20 text-sm">
{parseResults.matched.map(m => (
<div key={m.participantId} className="flex justify-between px-3 py-1.5">
<span className="text-muted-foreground">{m.inputName}</span>
<span className="font-medium">
{m.name} &rarr; Elo {m.elo}{m.ranking !== null ? `, Rank #${m.ranking}` : ''}
</span>
</div>
))}
</div>
</div>
)}
{parseResults.unmatched.length > 0 && (
<div>
<div className="flex items-center gap-2 text-sm font-medium text-amber-700 mb-2">
<AlertCircle className="h-4 w-4" />
Not matched ({parseResults.unmatched.length}) enter manually below
</div>
<div className="rounded-md border border-amber-200 bg-amber-50 divide-y divide-amber-100 text-sm">
{parseResults.unmatched.map(u => (
<div key={u.inputName} className="flex justify-between px-3 py-1.5">
<span>{u.inputName}</span>
<span className="font-medium">
Elo {u.elo}{u.ranking !== null ? `, Rank #${u.ranking}` : ''}
</span>
</div>
))}
</div>
</div>
)}
{parseResults.matched.length > 0 && (
<Button type="button" onClick={applyMatches}>
Apply {parseResults.matched.length} matched entries to form
</Button>
)}
</div>
)}
</CardContent>
</Card>
<div className="grid gap-6 lg:grid-cols-2">
<Card>
<CardHeader>
<CardTitle>Player Elo &amp; Rankings</CardTitle>
<CardDescription>
Enter each player's Darts Elo and world ranking. World ranking determines bracket seeding
(top 32 seeded, rest randomly drawn). Saving will automatically run the simulation and
update expected values.
</CardDescription>
</CardHeader>
<CardContent>
<Form method="post" className="space-y-4">
<div className="grid grid-cols-[1fr_100px_80px] gap-x-3 gap-y-2 items-center text-xs font-medium text-muted-foreground mb-1">
<span>Player</span>
<span>Elo</span>
<span>Rank #</span>
</div>
<div className="space-y-2">
{sortedParticipants.map(participant => (
<div key={participant.id} className="grid grid-cols-[1fr_100px_80px] gap-x-3 items-center">
<Label htmlFor={`elo_${participant.id}`} className="truncate text-sm">
{participant.name}
</Label>
<Input
type="number"
id={`elo_${participant.id}`}
name={`elo_${participant.id}`}
placeholder="1800"
value={eloValues[participant.id] ?? ''}
onChange={e =>
setEloValues(prev => ({ ...prev, [participant.id]: e.target.value }))
}
className="h-8 text-sm"
/>
<Input
type="number"
name={`rank_${participant.id}`}
placeholder="—"
value={rankValues[participant.id] ?? ''}
onChange={e =>
setRankValues(prev => ({ ...prev, [participant.id]: e.target.value }))
}
className="h-8 text-sm"
/>
</div>
))}
</div>
{actionData && !actionData.success && actionData.message && (
<div className="text-sm text-destructive">{actionData.message}</div>
)}
<Button type="submit" disabled={isSubmitting}>
{isSubmitting && <Loader2 className="mr-2 h-4 w-4 animate-spin" />}
{isSubmitting ? 'Saving & Running Simulation...' : 'Save & Run Simulation'}
</Button>
</Form>
</CardContent>
</Card>
<Card>
<CardHeader>
<CardTitle>How It Works</CardTitle>
</CardHeader>
<CardContent className="text-sm space-y-2">
<ol className="list-decimal list-inside space-y-2">
<li>Save Elo ratings and world rankings for all 128 players</li>
<li>Top 32 seeds placed in fixed bracket positions; remaining 96 randomly drawn per simulation</li>
<li>Per-set win probability: p = 1 / (1 + e^(ΔElo/500))</li>
<li>Match win probability via Bernoulli sets model for each round's best-of length</li>
<li>Run 50,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the full bracket</li>
<li>Distribute probabilities across 1st8th place buckets</li>
<li>Calculate expected fantasy value per player</li>
</ol>
<div className="mt-4 text-muted-foreground text-xs space-y-1">
<div>Round formats: R1 bo3, R2/R3 bo5, R4/QF bo7, SF bo11, Final bo13</div>
<div>If world ranking is omitted, players are seeded by Elo order.</div>
<div>Once the bracket draw is announced, add players to the bracket event for live simulation.</div>
</div>
</CardContent>
</Card>
</div>
</div>
);
}