brackt/app/models/draft-pick.ts
Claude 7ec17e417d
Fix EV reporting 20 pts for both LLWS 5-6 and 7-8 locked tiers
After an LLWS simulation, a team locked into the 5th-6th tier and one
locked into the 7th-8th tier both showed 20 points EV. They should show
25 and 15.

The simulator and calculateEV were both right. A team locked into the
5-6 tier comes out of llws-simulator at probFifth = probSixth = 0.5, and
against DEFAULT_SCORING_RULES (100/70/50/40/25/25/15/15) that is 25 —
matching calculateBracketPoints, which already knows llws_20 splits 5-8
into two tiers. The Admin -> Expected Values page just wasn't using that
table. It hardcoded its own stale copy:

  const SCORING = [100, 70, 45, 45, 20, 20, 20, 20] as const;

0.5*20 + 0.5*20 = 20 for either tier.

It is not LLWS-specific. Four places carried that same stale table, and
it stayed invisible because a standard single-elimination bracket puts
all four quarterfinal losers in one tier worth avg(25,25,15,15) = 20 —
the same number. It only diverges for the templates that split 5-8
(llws_20, afl_10) and those with a distinct 3rd/4th (llws_20, fifa_48,
where 45/45 should be 50/40). Two of the four *persist* EVs computed
that way, so the wrong values reached the database:

  - expected-values.tsx      displayed EV, the total, and the sort order
  - expected-values.server   manual EV entry, written to expected_value
  - golf-skills.tsx          simulation EVs + snapshots, written
  - surface-elo.tsx          simulation EVs + snapshots, written

All four now use the shared DEFAULT_SCORING_RULES. probability-updater
had a fourth inline copy with the right values; it is folded in too so
there is one table left. The page's 340 total-EV invariant is unchanged
— both tables sum to 340.

A second path collapses the same two tiers, this time in real fantasy
points. calculateBracketPoints falls back to the flat avg([5,6,7,8])
when bracketTemplateId is null, and four call sites resolved the
template by taking an arbitrary scoringEvents row for the sports season
— unordered, and not filtered to rows that actually carry a template. A
season can own several events (a bracket plus schedule events, or a
re-created bracket beside a stale one), so a null row wins at random and
llws_20 is lost. New getBracketTemplateIdsForSportsSeasons in
models/bracket-template.ts filters to events with a template and takes
the most recent, the same rule llws-simulator uses to pick its bracket
event; standings, calculateTeamScore, calculateTeamProjectedScore and
getDraftedParticipantsWithPoints all go through it.

Tests: evFromProbs pinned to 25 / 15 / 20-for-a-single-5-8-tier and the
340 invariant; the new lookup against a mixed set of events; and two
llws-simulator tests that play out a full U.S. side so a team really is
locked into each tier and must come out at exactly 50/50 across it.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01EmUdy42Rpgx9qZTnpQwirz
2026-08-27 16:11:59 +00:00

377 lines
12 KiB
TypeScript

import { database } from "~/database/context";
import * as schema from "~/database/schema";
import { eq, and, inArray, asc } from "drizzle-orm";
import {
getScoringRules,
calculateFantasyPoints,
calculateBracketPoints,
calculateSharedPlacementPoints,
} from "./scoring-rules";
import { getBracketTemplateIdsForSportsSeasons } from "./bracket-template";
export async function createDraftPick(data: {
seasonId: string;
teamId: string;
participantId: string;
pickNumber: number;
round: number;
pickInRound: number;
pickedByUserId: string;
pickedByType: "owner" | "commissioner" | "auto";
timeUsed: number;
}) {
const db = database();
const [pick] = await db.insert(schema.draftPicks).values(data).returning();
return pick;
}
export async function getDraftPicks(seasonId: string) {
const db = database();
return await db
.select()
.from(schema.draftPicks)
.where(eq(schema.draftPicks.seasonId, seasonId))
.orderBy(schema.draftPicks.pickNumber);
}
export async function getDraftPickByNumber(seasonId: string, pickNumber: number) {
const db = database();
const [pick] = await db
.select()
.from(schema.draftPicks)
.where(
and(
eq(schema.draftPicks.seasonId, seasonId),
eq(schema.draftPicks.pickNumber, pickNumber)
)
);
return pick;
}
export async function getTeamDraftPicks(teamId: string) {
const db = database();
return await db
.select()
.from(schema.draftPicks)
.where(eq(schema.draftPicks.teamId, teamId))
.orderBy(schema.draftPicks.pickNumber);
}
export async function isParticipantDrafted(seasonId: string, participantId: string, providedDb?: ReturnType<typeof database>) {
const db = providedDb || database();
const [pick] = await db
.select()
.from(schema.draftPicks)
.where(
and(
eq(schema.draftPicks.seasonId, seasonId),
eq(schema.draftPicks.participantId, participantId)
)
);
return !!pick;
}
/**
* Get a team's drafted participants grouped by sports season.
* Returns a map of sportsSeasonId → [{id, name}].
*/
export async function getDraftedParticipantsBySportsSeason(
teamId: string,
seasonId: string,
providedDb?: ReturnType<typeof database>
): Promise<Map<string, Array<{ id: string; name: string }>>> {
const db = providedDb || database();
const results = await db
.select({
sportsSeasonId: schema.seasonParticipants.sportsSeasonId,
participantId: schema.seasonParticipants.id,
participantName: schema.seasonParticipants.name,
})
.from(schema.draftPicks)
.innerJoin(
schema.seasonParticipants,
eq(schema.draftPicks.participantId, schema.seasonParticipants.id)
)
.where(
and(
eq(schema.draftPicks.teamId, teamId),
eq(schema.draftPicks.seasonId, seasonId)
)
);
const map = new Map<string, Array<{ id: string; name: string }>>();
for (const row of results) {
if (!map.has(row.sportsSeasonId)) {
map.set(row.sportsSeasonId, []);
}
map.get(row.sportsSeasonId)?.push({ id: row.participantId, name: row.participantName });
}
return map;
}
export interface DraftedParticipantWithPoints {
id: string;
name: string;
/** Fantasy league points earned (position → scoring rules). null = no result yet. */
earnedPoints: number | null;
/** Accumulated qualifying points for qualifying_points sports. null for other sports. */
currentQP: number | null;
}
/**
* Get a team's drafted participants with their current earned points, grouped by
* sports season. Used for the league home summary card.
*
* - playoff_bracket / season_standings: earnedPoints = finalPosition → scoring rules
* - qualifying_points (active): currentQP = accumulated QP from participantQualifyingTotals
* - qualifying_points (finalized): earnedPoints = shared finalPosition slots → scoring rules
* - No EV / projected points — actual earned only.
*/
export async function getDraftedParticipantsWithPoints(
teamId: string,
seasonId: string,
providedDb?: ReturnType<typeof database>
): Promise<Map<string, DraftedParticipantWithPoints[]>> {
const db = providedDb || database();
const scoringRules = await getScoringRules(seasonId, db);
if (!scoringRules) return new Map();
// One query: picks → participant → sportsSeason (scoringPattern) + results (position)
const picks = await db.query.draftPicks.findMany({
where: and(
eq(schema.draftPicks.teamId, teamId),
eq(schema.draftPicks.seasonId, seasonId)
),
columns: {},
with: {
participant: {
columns: { id: true, name: true, sportsSeasonId: true },
with: {
sportsSeason: { columns: { id: true, scoringPattern: true } },
results: { columns: { finalPosition: true }, limit: 1 },
},
},
},
});
// Collect unique sportsSeasonIds per scoring pattern
const bracketSeasonIds = new Set<string>();
const qpSeasonIds = new Set<string>();
const qpParticipantIds = new Set<string>();
const finalizedQPSeasonIds = new Set<string>();
for (const pick of picks) {
const pattern = pick.participant.sportsSeason.scoringPattern;
const ssId = pick.participant.sportsSeasonId;
if (pattern === "playoff_bracket") bracketSeasonIds.add(ssId);
if (pattern === "qualifying_points") {
qpSeasonIds.add(ssId);
qpParticipantIds.add(pick.participant.id);
if (pick.participant.results[0]?.finalPosition !== null && pick.participant.results[0]?.finalPosition !== undefined) {
finalizedQPSeasonIds.add(ssId);
}
}
}
// Batch-fetch bracket template IDs (one per sports season)
const bracketTemplateMap =
bracketSeasonIds.size > 0
? await getBracketTemplateIdsForSportsSeasons([...bracketSeasonIds], db)
: new Map<string, string | null>();
// Batch-fetch QP totals for qualifying_points participants
const qpMap = new Map<string, number>(); // participantId → totalQP
if (qpParticipantIds.size > 0 && qpSeasonIds.size > 0) {
const totals = await db.query.seasonParticipantQualifyingTotals.findMany({
where: and(
inArray(schema.seasonParticipantQualifyingTotals.participantId, [...qpParticipantIds]),
inArray(schema.seasonParticipantQualifyingTotals.sportsSeasonId, [...qpSeasonIds])
),
columns: { participantId: true, totalQualifyingPoints: true },
});
for (const row of totals) {
qpMap.set(row.participantId, parseFloat(row.totalQualifyingPoints));
}
}
const qpSharedPlacementCounts = new Map<string, Map<number, number>>();
if (finalizedQPSeasonIds.size > 0) {
const results = await db.query.seasonParticipantResults.findMany({
where: inArray(schema.seasonParticipantResults.sportsSeasonId, [...finalizedQPSeasonIds]),
columns: { sportsSeasonId: true, finalPosition: true },
});
for (const row of results) {
if (row.finalPosition === null || row.finalPosition <= 0) continue;
const counts = qpSharedPlacementCounts.get(row.sportsSeasonId) ?? new Map<number, number>();
qpSharedPlacementCounts.set(row.sportsSeasonId, counts);
counts.set(row.finalPosition, (counts.get(row.finalPosition) ?? 0) + 1);
}
}
// Assemble result grouped by sportsSeasonId
const result = new Map<string, DraftedParticipantWithPoints[]>();
for (const pick of picks) {
const { id, name, sportsSeasonId } = pick.participant;
const pattern = pick.participant.sportsSeason.scoringPattern;
const resultRow = pick.participant.results[0] ?? null;
let earnedPoints: number | null = null;
let currentQP: number | null = null;
if (pattern === "qualifying_points" && (resultRow?.finalPosition === null || resultRow?.finalPosition === undefined)) {
// Active QP season: show accumulated qualifying points
currentQP = qpMap.get(id) ?? null;
} else if (resultRow?.finalPosition !== null && resultRow?.finalPosition !== undefined) {
// Finalized result for any pattern (including finalized QP seasons)
if (pattern === "playoff_bracket") {
earnedPoints = calculateBracketPoints(
resultRow.finalPosition,
scoringRules,
bracketTemplateMap.get(sportsSeasonId) ?? null
);
} else if (pattern === "qualifying_points") {
const tiedParticipants =
qpSharedPlacementCounts.get(sportsSeasonId)?.get(resultRow.finalPosition) ?? 1;
earnedPoints = calculateSharedPlacementPoints(
resultRow.finalPosition,
tiedParticipants,
scoringRules
);
} else {
earnedPoints = calculateFantasyPoints(resultRow.finalPosition, scoringRules);
}
}
const arr = result.get(sportsSeasonId) ?? [];
result.set(sportsSeasonId, arr);
arr.push({ id, name, earnedPoints, currentQP });
}
return result;
}
export async function deleteAllDraftPicks(seasonId: string) {
const db = database();
await db
.delete(schema.draftPicks)
.where(eq(schema.draftPicks.seasonId, seasonId));
}
/**
* Get all draft picks for a season with participant and sport information
* Used for draft eligibility calculations
*/
export async function getDraftPicksWithSports(seasonId: string, providedDb?: ReturnType<typeof database>) {
const db = providedDb || database();
const results = await db
.select({
id: schema.draftPicks.id,
teamId: schema.draftPicks.teamId,
pickNumber: schema.draftPicks.pickNumber,
participantId: schema.seasonParticipants.id,
participantName: schema.seasonParticipants.name,
sportId: schema.sports.id,
sportName: schema.sports.name,
})
.from(schema.draftPicks)
.innerJoin(
schema.seasonParticipants,
eq(schema.draftPicks.participantId, schema.seasonParticipants.id)
)
.innerJoin(
schema.sportsSeasons,
eq(schema.seasonParticipants.sportsSeasonId, schema.sportsSeasons.id)
)
.innerJoin(
schema.sports,
eq(schema.sportsSeasons.sportId, schema.sports.id)
)
.where(eq(schema.draftPicks.seasonId, seasonId))
.orderBy(schema.draftPicks.pickNumber);
// Transform to expected format
return results.map((r) => ({
teamId: r.teamId,
participant: {
id: r.participantId,
sport: {
id: r.sportId,
name: r.sportName,
},
},
}));
}
/**
* Get team's draft picks with participant and sport information
*/
export async function getTeamDraftPicksWithSports(teamId: string, seasonId: string, providedDb?: ReturnType<typeof database>) {
const db = providedDb || database();
const results = await db
.select({
id: schema.draftPicks.id,
teamId: schema.draftPicks.teamId,
pickNumber: schema.draftPicks.pickNumber,
participantId: schema.seasonParticipants.id,
participantName: schema.seasonParticipants.name,
sportId: schema.sports.id,
sportName: schema.sports.name,
})
.from(schema.draftPicks)
.innerJoin(
schema.seasonParticipants,
eq(schema.draftPicks.participantId, schema.seasonParticipants.id)
)
.innerJoin(
schema.sportsSeasons,
eq(schema.seasonParticipants.sportsSeasonId, schema.sportsSeasons.id)
)
.innerJoin(
schema.sports,
eq(schema.sportsSeasons.sportId, schema.sports.id)
)
.where(
and(
eq(schema.draftPicks.teamId, teamId),
eq(schema.draftPicks.seasonId, seasonId)
)
)
.orderBy(schema.draftPicks.pickNumber);
// Transform to expected format
return results.map((r) => ({
teamId: r.teamId,
participant: {
id: r.participantId,
sport: {
id: r.sportId,
name: r.sportName,
},
},
}));
}
export async function getDraftPicksForSeason(seasonId: string) {
const db = database();
return await db
.select({
id: schema.draftPicks.id,
pickNumber: schema.draftPicks.pickNumber,
round: schema.draftPicks.round,
pickInRound: schema.draftPicks.pickInRound,
timeUsed: schema.draftPicks.timeUsed,
team: schema.teams,
participant: schema.seasonParticipants,
sport: schema.sports,
})
.from(schema.draftPicks)
.innerJoin(schema.teams, eq(schema.draftPicks.teamId, schema.teams.id))
.innerJoin(schema.seasonParticipants, eq(schema.draftPicks.participantId, schema.seasonParticipants.id))
.innerJoin(schema.sportsSeasons, eq(schema.seasonParticipants.sportsSeasonId, schema.sportsSeasons.id))
.innerJoin(schema.sports, eq(schema.sportsSeasons.sportId, schema.sports.id))
.where(eq(schema.draftPicks.seasonId, seasonId))
.orderBy(asc(schema.draftPicks.pickNumber));
}