brackt/app/models/surface-elo.ts
Chris Parsons d7ba20d9ea
Add tennis Grand Slam simulator with surface Elo ratings, fixes #116 (#216)
Implements a Monte Carlo simulator for men's/women's tennis seasons scored
on the qualifying_points pattern. Simulates all 4 Grand Slam majors
(Australian Open, French Open, Wimbledon, US Open) using surface-specific
Elo ratings and ATP/WTA world rankings for seeding.

New table: participant_surface_elos — one row per (participant, season)
storing worldRanking, eloHard, eloClay, eloGrass.

Key design decisions:
- Seeding uses ATP/WTA world ranking (not Elo), matching real draw procedure
- Top 32 seeded with standard slot placement (1→0, 2→64, 3-4→quarters, etc.)
- QP per round with tie-splitting pre-applied: W=20, F=14, SF=9, QF=4, R16=1.5
- Completed majors read actual qualifyingPointsAwarded from eventResults
- 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations; column sums naturally 1.0 (no normalization)

Admin UI at /admin/sports-seasons/:id/surface-elo:
- 5-column grid (Player | Rank | Hard | Clay | Grass)
- Bulk import: "Name, ranking, hardElo, clayElo, grassElo" one per line
- Fuzzy name matching (bigram Dice coefficient) with "Did you mean?" suggestions
- Inline participant creation for unmatched names via useFetcher
- Saves Elos and auto-runs simulation on submit

Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-23 23:59:35 -07:00

129 lines
4.1 KiB
TypeScript

/**
* Model for Participant Surface Elos
*
* Manages surface-specific Elo ratings for tennis (and future surface-based sports).
* Each participant in a sports season can have separate Elo ratings for hard,
* clay, and grass courts.
*/
import { database } from "~/database/context";
import { participantSurfaceElos, participants } from "~/database/schema";
import { eq, sql } from "drizzle-orm";
export type CourtSurface = "hard" | "clay" | "grass";
export interface SurfaceEloRecord {
id: string;
participantId: string;
sportsSeasonId: string;
worldRanking: number | null;
eloHard: number | null;
eloClay: number | null;
eloGrass: number | null;
updatedAt: Date;
}
export interface SurfaceEloWithName extends SurfaceEloRecord {
participantName: string;
}
export interface SurfaceEloInput {
participantId: string;
sportsSeasonId: string;
worldRanking?: number | null;
eloHard?: number | null;
eloClay?: number | null;
eloGrass?: number | null;
}
/**
* Get all surface Elo records for a sports season, joined with participant names.
* Returns one record per participant (participants with no Elo record are excluded).
*/
export async function getSurfaceElosForSeason(
sportsSeasonId: string
): Promise<SurfaceEloWithName[]> {
const db = database();
const rows = await db
.select({
id: participantSurfaceElos.id,
participantId: participantSurfaceElos.participantId,
sportsSeasonId: participantSurfaceElos.sportsSeasonId,
worldRanking: participantSurfaceElos.worldRanking,
eloHard: participantSurfaceElos.eloHard,
eloClay: participantSurfaceElos.eloClay,
eloGrass: participantSurfaceElos.eloGrass,
updatedAt: participantSurfaceElos.updatedAt,
participantName: participants.name,
})
.from(participantSurfaceElos)
.innerJoin(participants, eq(participantSurfaceElos.participantId, participants.id))
.where(eq(participantSurfaceElos.sportsSeasonId, sportsSeasonId))
.orderBy(participants.name);
return rows;
}
/**
* Upsert surface Elo ratings for a batch of participants.
* Uses INSERT ... ON CONFLICT DO UPDATE so all three surface columns are
* overwritten atomically — the admin always submits all three values.
*/
export async function batchUpsertSurfaceElos(
inputs: SurfaceEloInput[]
): Promise<void> {
if (inputs.length === 0) return;
const db = database();
const now = new Date();
await db
.insert(participantSurfaceElos)
.values(
inputs.map(({ participantId, sportsSeasonId, worldRanking, eloHard, eloClay, eloGrass }) => ({
participantId,
sportsSeasonId,
worldRanking: worldRanking ?? null,
eloHard: eloHard ?? null,
eloClay: eloClay ?? null,
eloGrass: eloGrass ?? null,
updatedAt: now,
}))
)
.onConflictDoUpdate({
target: [participantSurfaceElos.participantId, participantSurfaceElos.sportsSeasonId],
set: {
worldRanking: sql`excluded.world_ranking`,
eloHard: sql`excluded.elo_hard`,
eloClay: sql`excluded.elo_clay`,
eloGrass: sql`excluded.elo_grass`,
updatedAt: sql`excluded.updated_at`,
},
});
}
/**
* Returns a Map from participantId to surface Elos for use in the simulator.
* Participants with no record are absent from the map (simulator falls back to 1500).
*/
export async function getSurfaceEloMap(
sportsSeasonId: string
): Promise<Map<string, { worldRanking: number | null; eloHard: number | null; eloClay: number | null; eloGrass: number | null }>> {
const db = database();
const rows = await db
.select({
participantId: participantSurfaceElos.participantId,
worldRanking: participantSurfaceElos.worldRanking,
eloHard: participantSurfaceElos.eloHard,
eloClay: participantSurfaceElos.eloClay,
eloGrass: participantSurfaceElos.eloGrass,
})
.from(participantSurfaceElos)
.where(eq(participantSurfaceElos.sportsSeasonId, sportsSeasonId));
return new Map(rows.map((r) => [r.participantId, {
worldRanking: r.worldRanking,
eloHard: r.eloHard,
eloClay: r.eloClay,
eloGrass: r.eloGrass,
}]));
}