brackt/app/services/simulations
Chris Parsons c1be92b2af
Add AFL season + finals simulator (closes #126) (#204)
Monte Carlo simulation of the 2026 AFL season and 10-team finals series.
Elo ratings are backsolved from Squiggle's projected season win totals using
the inverse formula: elo = 1500 - 450×log₁₀((1−wins/23)/(wins/23)).

- New `afl_bracket` simulator type (schema + migration)
- `afl-simulator.ts`: projects remaining regular season via Elo, seeds the
  AFL_10 finals bracket (Wildcard → QF/EF → SF → PF → Grand Final), and
  correctly tracks P5/P6 and P7/P8 as separate scoring tiers
- `afl.ts` standings sync adapter pulling from Squiggle API (no auth required)
- Finals line on standings display set to 10 for AFL seasons
- Substring name matching with longest-key-wins to prevent "Port Adelaide"
  colliding with "Adelaide" when matching "Port Adelaide Power"
- 27 unit tests covering bracket logic, column-sum guarantees, and name matching

Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-22 01:57:39 -07:00
..
__tests__ Add AFL season + finals simulator (closes #126) (#204) 2026-03-22 01:57:39 -07:00
afl-simulator.ts Add AFL season + finals simulator (closes #126) (#204) 2026-03-22 01:57:39 -07:00
auto-racing-simulator.ts Fix oxlint warnings: no-shadow, consistent-function-scoping, no-non-null-assertion, and others (#196) 2026-03-21 10:59:51 -07:00
bracket-simulator.ts Fix oxlint warnings: no-shadow, consistent-function-scoping, no-non-null-assertion, and others (#196) 2026-03-21 10:59:51 -07:00
golf-simulator.ts User/chris/ev f1 framework (#93) 2026-03-09 15:34:31 -07:00
nba-simulator.ts Simulate NBA remaining regular season games from standings (#201) 2026-03-21 23:37:20 -07:00
ncaam-simulator.ts Replace console.* with structured logger, fix no-inferrable-types (closes #98) (#199) 2026-03-21 13:41:39 -07:00
ncaaw-simulator.ts Replace console.* with structured logger, fix no-inferrable-types (closes #98) (#199) 2026-03-21 13:41:39 -07:00
nhl-simulator.ts Tune NHL simulator: Vegas futures blending + parity factor calibration (closes #168) (#202) 2026-03-22 00:14:18 -07:00
registry.ts Add AFL season + finals simulator (closes #126) (#204) 2026-03-22 01:57:39 -07:00
types.ts User/chris/ev f1 framework (#93) 2026-03-09 15:34:31 -07:00
ucl-simulator.ts Fix oxlint warnings: no-shadow, consistent-function-scoping, no-non-null-assertion, and others (#196) 2026-03-21 10:59:51 -07:00