brackt/app/routes/admin.sports-seasons.$id.simulate.tsx
Chris Parsons c6ba59b0e6
User/chris/ev f1 framework (#93)
* feat: EV simulation framework with F1 Monte Carlo simulator

- Add EV snapshot tables (participant_ev_snapshots, team_ev_snapshots) and simulation_status column on sports seasons
- Add ev-snapshot model with upsert and history query functions
- Add simulator framework: types, bracket/F1/golf simulators, registry
- F1 simulator: vig-removed ICM weighted draw (pre-season) + race-by-race Monte Carlo from current standings (in-season); per-position column normalization to prevent floating-point EV drift
- Add admin simulate route and Run Simulation button on sports season page
- Rework futures-odds admin page to save odds then run simulation in one action
- Remove recalculate-probabilities route (superseded by simulate route)
- Remove EV trend chart panel and associated DB queries

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* feat: map simulators to sports via simulatorType field

Adds a `simulator_type` enum column to the `sports` table so each sport
can be assigned a specific simulation algorithm rather than deriving it
from the sports season's scoring pattern.

- Add `simulatorTypeEnum` (f1_standings, indycar_standings,
  golf_qualifying_points, playoff_bracket) + `simulatorType` nullable
  column on `sports` table; migration 0037
- Rewrite simulator registry to key off `SimulatorType` instead of
  `ScoringPattern`; indycar_standings shares F1Simulator for now
- `findSportsSeasonById` now returns `SportsSeasonWithSport` so callers
  have typed access to `sport.simulatorType`
- Simulate and futures-odds actions read `sport.simulatorType`; guard
  fires before setting `simulationStatus: running`
- Admin sport edit page gains a Simulator Type dropdown

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

---------

Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-09 15:34:31 -07:00

108 lines
3.8 KiB
TypeScript

/**
* Admin: Run EV Simulation for a Sports Season
*
* Action-only route. POSTing here:
* 1. Guards against concurrent runs via simulationStatus
* 2. Runs the appropriate simulator based on the sport's simulatorType
* 3. Persists updated EVs to participantExpectedValues (transactional)
* 4. Takes an EV snapshot from simulation output (upsert for today's date)
* 5. Redirects back to the sports season admin page
*/
import { redirect } from "react-router";
import type { Route } from "./+types/admin.sports-seasons.$id.simulate";
import { findSportsSeasonById, updateSportsSeason } from "~/models/sports-season";
import { batchUpsertParticipantEVs } from "~/models/participant-expected-value";
import { batchUpsertParticipantEvSnapshots } from "~/models/ev-snapshot";
import { getSimulator, type SimulatorType } from "~/services/simulations/registry";
import { calculateEV, type ScoringRules } from "~/services/ev-calculator";
// Default scoring rules — matches the season table defaults.
// Per-league EV is recalculated from probabilities using league-specific rules in standings.
const DEFAULT_SCORING_RULES: ScoringRules = {
pointsFor1st: 100,
pointsFor2nd: 70,
pointsFor3rd: 50,
pointsFor4th: 40,
pointsFor5th: 25,
pointsFor6th: 25,
pointsFor7th: 15,
pointsFor8th: 15,
};
export async function action({ params }: Route.ActionArgs) {
const sportsSeasonId = params.id;
const sportsSeason = await findSportsSeasonById(sportsSeasonId);
if (!sportsSeason) {
throw new Response("Sports season not found", { status: 404 });
}
if (!sportsSeason.sport?.simulatorType) {
throw new Response(
"This sport has no simulator type configured. Set a simulator type on the sport in the admin panel before running a simulation.",
{ status: 400 }
);
}
// Guard against concurrent simulation runs
if (sportsSeason.simulationStatus === "running") {
throw new Response(
"A simulation is already running for this sports season. Please wait for it to complete.",
{ status: 409 }
);
}
// Mark as running
await updateSportsSeason(sportsSeasonId, { simulationStatus: "running" });
try {
const simulator = getSimulator(sportsSeason.sport.simulatorType as SimulatorType);
const results = await simulator.simulate(sportsSeasonId);
if (results.length === 0) {
throw new Error("Simulation returned no results. Check that participants have EV data.");
}
// Persist updated EVs (transactional)
await batchUpsertParticipantEVs(
results.map((r) => ({
participantId: r.participantId,
sportsSeasonId,
probabilities: r.probabilities,
scoringRules: DEFAULT_SCORING_RULES,
source: "elo_simulation",
}))
);
// Take EV snapshot from simulation output (not re-read from DB)
const today = new Date().toISOString().slice(0, 10); // YYYY-MM-DD
await batchUpsertParticipantEvSnapshots(
results.map((r) => ({
participantId: r.participantId,
sportsSeasonId,
snapshotDate: today,
probFirst: r.probabilities.probFirst,
probSecond: r.probabilities.probSecond,
probThird: r.probabilities.probThird,
probFourth: r.probabilities.probFourth,
probFifth: r.probabilities.probFifth,
probSixth: r.probabilities.probSixth,
probSeventh: r.probabilities.probSeventh,
probEighth: r.probabilities.probEighth,
calculatedEV: calculateEV(r.probabilities, DEFAULT_SCORING_RULES),
source: r.source,
}))
);
// Mark as idle
await updateSportsSeason(sportsSeasonId, { simulationStatus: "idle" });
} catch (error) {
// Mark as failed so the UI shows the error state
await updateSportsSeason(sportsSeasonId, { simulationStatus: "failed" });
throw error;
}
return redirect(`/admin/sports-seasons/${sportsSeasonId}/expected-values`);
}