cbaab920f9
Adds a new `nba_bracket` simulator that projects both regular season seedings and the full NBA playoff bracket, unlike other simulators that operate on a pre-set bracket stored in the DB. Algorithm: - Per iteration: each team draws a conference seed (1–10) weighted by BBRef seed probabilities, then seeds 7–10 play the Play-In tournament (single elimination), then the resulting 8-team bracket is simulated as best-of-7 series using Elo playoff ratings - Elo source: playoff rating (last 110 games, no regression to mean, postseason games weighted 3×) — appropriate for playoff matchup quality - Seed probs source: Basketball-Reference (March 16, 2026), scaled from conditional to unconditional by multiplying by each team's Playoffs% Placement tiers map to SimulationProbabilities: probFirst/Second → NBA champion / Finals loser probThird/Fourth → Conference Finals losers (2 per sim) probFifth–Eighth → Conference Semis losers (4 per sim) Files: - app/services/simulations/nba-simulator.ts (new) - drizzle/0046_add_nba_bracket_simulator_type.sql (new) - database/schema.ts: adds `nba_bracket` to simulatorTypeEnum - app/services/simulations/registry.ts: registers NBASimulator Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
99 lines
3.9 KiB
TypeScript
99 lines
3.9 KiB
TypeScript
/**
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* Simulator Registry
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*
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* Maps a sport's simulatorType to the appropriate Simulator implementation.
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* Set simulatorType on the sport record in the admin UI.
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* Add new simulators here as new sports are supported.
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*/
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import type { Simulator } from "./types";
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import { BracketSimulator } from "./bracket-simulator";
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import { AutoRacingSimulator } from "./auto-racing-simulator";
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import { GolfSimulator } from "./golf-simulator";
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import { UCLSimulator } from "./ucl-simulator";
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import { NCAAMSimulator } from "./ncaam-simulator";
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import { NCAAWSimulator } from "./ncaaw-simulator";
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import { NBASimulator } from "./nba-simulator";
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export const SIMULATOR_TYPES = [
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"f1_standings",
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"indycar_standings",
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"golf_qualifying_points",
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"playoff_bracket",
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"ucl_bracket",
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"ncaam_bracket",
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"ncaaw_bracket",
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"nba_bracket",
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] as const;
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export type SimulatorType = typeof SIMULATOR_TYPES[number];
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// ─── Race points tables ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────
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/** F1 points: positions 1–10. */
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const F1_RACE_POINTS: Record<number, number> = {
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1: 25, 2: 18, 3: 15, 4: 12, 5: 10, 6: 8, 7: 6, 8: 4, 9: 2, 10: 1,
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};
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/** IndyCar standard race points: positions 1–26. */
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const INDYCAR_RACE_POINTS: Record<number, number> = {
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1: 50, 2: 40, 3: 35, 4: 32, 5: 30, 6: 28, 7: 26, 8: 24, 9: 22, 10: 20,
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11: 19, 12: 18, 13: 17, 14: 16, 15: 15, 16: 14, 17: 13, 18: 12, 19: 11, 20: 10,
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21: 9, 22: 8, 23: 7, 24: 6, 25: 5, 26: 5,
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};
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export interface SimulatorInfo {
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name: string;
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description: string;
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}
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const REGISTRY: Record<SimulatorType, { info: SimulatorInfo; create: () => Simulator }> = {
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f1_standings: {
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info: { name: "F1 Standings Model", description: "Simulates remaining races using current F1 standings and futures odds" },
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create: () => new AutoRacingSimulator(F1_RACE_POINTS, "f1_standings_model"),
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},
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indycar_standings: {
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info: { name: "IndyCar Standings Model", description: "Simulates remaining races using current IndyCar standings and futures odds" },
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create: () => new AutoRacingSimulator(INDYCAR_RACE_POINTS, "indycar_standings_model"),
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},
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golf_qualifying_points: {
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info: { name: "Qualifying Points Model", description: "Simulates remaining majors using current QP standings and futures odds" },
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create: () => new GolfSimulator(),
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},
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playoff_bracket: {
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info: { name: "Bracket Monte Carlo", description: "Simulates playoff bracket outcomes using Elo ratings" },
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create: () => new BracketSimulator(),
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},
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ucl_bracket: {
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info: { name: "UCL Bracket Monte Carlo", description: "Simulates the UEFA Champions League 16-team knockout bracket using blended Elo + futures odds" },
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create: () => new UCLSimulator(),
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},
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ncaam_bracket: {
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info: { name: "NCAAM Bracket Monte Carlo", description: "Simulates the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament 64-team bracket using KenPom net ratings" },
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create: () => new NCAAMSimulator(),
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},
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ncaaw_bracket: {
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info: { name: "NCAAW Bracket Monte Carlo", description: "Simulates the NCAA Women's Basketball Tournament 64-team bracket using Barttorvik Barthag ratings" },
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create: () => new NCAAWSimulator(),
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},
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nba_bracket: {
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info: { name: "NBA Playoff Monte Carlo", description: "Simulates NBA playoff seedings (via seed probabilities) and full bracket (best-of-7 series) using Elo ratings" },
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create: () => new NBASimulator(),
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},
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};
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export function getSimulator(simulatorType: SimulatorType): Simulator {
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const entry = REGISTRY[simulatorType];
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if (!entry) {
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throw new Error(
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`No simulator registered for type: "${simulatorType}". ` +
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`Add a simulator to app/services/simulations/registry.ts.`
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);
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}
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return entry.create();
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}
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export function getSimulatorInfo(simulatorType: SimulatorType): SimulatorInfo | null {
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return REGISTRY[simulatorType]?.info ?? null;
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}
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