dc4efe87cf
Make the futures-vs-Elo relationship an explicit, configurable rule and fix futures odds failing to override stored Elo. Root causes addressed: - resolveSourceElos/resolveRatings used a hardcoded precedence (direct Elo -> projectedWins -> projectedTablePoints -> odds). The prior fix nulled sourceElo on futures entry but not projections, which still outranked odds. - The override relied on a destructive null-on-save hack that also wiped manually entered Elo. - Blended simulators buried their Elo/odds weight in module constants. - Futures odds were not surfaced on the /admin/simulators inventory. Changes: - Add a configurable source policy: sourceEloPriority (ordered) and oddsWeight, parsed/clamped in getSimulatorInputPolicy. resolveSourceElos/resolveRatings now resolve each participant by the configured priority instead of a fixed order. Futures-centric simulators (ncaam, ncaaw, world_cup, ncaa_football, college_hockey) default to a futures-override priority. - Drop the destructive nulling in batchSaveFuturesOddsForSimulator and batchSaveSourceOdds; override is now governed by policy, preserving stored Elo. - Thread an optional SimulationContext (oddsWeight) through the Simulator interface so blended sims (UCL, World Cup, NCAA FB, MLB) read the blend weight from the season policy; defaults preserve prior calibration when no context is passed. - Add a "Futures vs. Elo" strategy control and Odds Blend Weight input to the Simulator Setup input-policy card, persisted via save-input-policy. - Surface futures on /admin/simulators: a source badge and a Futures Odds quick link; extend listSportsSeasonSimulatorSummaries with odds source info. - Tests: configurable priority override (Elo/projections/rating), oddsWeight parsing/clamping, prefersFuturesOdds, manifest defaults, an NCAA Football context-blend behavioral test, and an updated non-destructive save test. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01QhNeB7gN6VKene7sdbBVQT
68 lines
3 KiB
TypeScript
68 lines
3 KiB
TypeScript
import { describe, expect, it } from "vitest";
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import * as schema from "~/database/schema";
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import { SIMULATOR_MANIFEST } from "../manifest";
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import { SIMULATOR_TYPES } from "../registry";
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import { getSimulatorInputPolicy, prefersFuturesOdds } from "../input-policy";
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import { assertRegistrySchemaDriftFree } from "~/models/simulator";
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describe("simulator manifest", () => {
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it("has a manifest profile for every registered simulator type", () => {
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expect(Object.keys(SIMULATOR_MANIFEST).toSorted()).toEqual([...SIMULATOR_TYPES].toSorted());
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});
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it("keeps the registry and database enum in sync", () => {
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expect([...schema.simulatorTypeEnum.enumValues].toSorted()).toEqual([...SIMULATOR_TYPES].toSorted());
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});
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it("assertRegistrySchemaDriftFree does not throw when registry and schema are aligned", async () => {
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await expect(assertRegistrySchemaDriftFree()).resolves.toBeUndefined();
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});
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it("documents admin setup requirements for all profiles", () => {
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for (const simulatorType of SIMULATOR_TYPES) {
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const profile = SIMULATOR_MANIFEST[simulatorType];
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expect(profile.displayName).toBeTruthy();
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expect(profile.description).toBeTruthy();
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expect(Array.isArray(profile.requiredInputs)).toBe(true);
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expect(Array.isArray(profile.optionalInputs)).toBe(true);
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expect(profile.setupSections.length).toBeGreaterThan(0);
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expect(profile.defaultConfig).toBeTypeOf("object");
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}
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});
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it("only derives inputs from declared optional inputs", () => {
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for (const simulatorType of SIMULATOR_TYPES) {
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const profile = SIMULATOR_MANIFEST[simulatorType];
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for (const alternatives of Object.values(profile.derivableInputs ?? {})) {
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for (const alternative of alternatives ?? []) {
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expect(profile.optionalInputs).toContain(alternative);
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}
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}
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}
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});
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it("defaults futures-centric simulators to a futures-override source priority", () => {
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const futuresCentric = ["ncaam_bracket", "ncaaw_bracket", "world_cup", "ncaa_football_bracket", "college_hockey_bracket"] as const;
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for (const simulatorType of futuresCentric) {
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const policy = getSimulatorInputPolicy(SIMULATOR_MANIFEST[simulatorType].defaultConfig);
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expect(prefersFuturesOdds(policy.sourceEloPriority)).toBe(true);
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}
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});
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it("exposes the blended Elo/odds weight through the input policy", () => {
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expect(getSimulatorInputPolicy(SIMULATOR_MANIFEST.ncaa_football_bracket.defaultConfig).oddsWeight).toBe(0.4);
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expect(getSimulatorInputPolicy(SIMULATOR_MANIFEST.world_cup.defaultConfig).oddsWeight).toBe(0.3);
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// A non-futures team sport keeps the Elo-first default.
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expect(prefersFuturesOdds(getSimulatorInputPolicy(SIMULATOR_MANIFEST.nba_bracket.defaultConfig).sourceEloPriority)).toBe(false);
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});
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it("keeps EPL projection and match parity as separate config knobs", () => {
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expect(SIMULATOR_MANIFEST.epl_standings.defaultConfig).toMatchObject({
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parityFactor: 400,
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matchParityFactor: 400,
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averageOpponentElo: 1500,
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baseDrawRate: 0.26,
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drawDecay: 0.002,
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});
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});
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});
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