dc4efe87cf
Make the futures-vs-Elo relationship an explicit, configurable rule and fix futures odds failing to override stored Elo. Root causes addressed: - resolveSourceElos/resolveRatings used a hardcoded precedence (direct Elo -> projectedWins -> projectedTablePoints -> odds). The prior fix nulled sourceElo on futures entry but not projections, which still outranked odds. - The override relied on a destructive null-on-save hack that also wiped manually entered Elo. - Blended simulators buried their Elo/odds weight in module constants. - Futures odds were not surfaced on the /admin/simulators inventory. Changes: - Add a configurable source policy: sourceEloPriority (ordered) and oddsWeight, parsed/clamped in getSimulatorInputPolicy. resolveSourceElos/resolveRatings now resolve each participant by the configured priority instead of a fixed order. Futures-centric simulators (ncaam, ncaaw, world_cup, ncaa_football, college_hockey) default to a futures-override priority. - Drop the destructive nulling in batchSaveFuturesOddsForSimulator and batchSaveSourceOdds; override is now governed by policy, preserving stored Elo. - Thread an optional SimulationContext (oddsWeight) through the Simulator interface so blended sims (UCL, World Cup, NCAA FB, MLB) read the blend weight from the season policy; defaults preserve prior calibration when no context is passed. - Add a "Futures vs. Elo" strategy control and Odds Blend Weight input to the Simulator Setup input-policy card, persisted via save-input-policy. - Surface futures on /admin/simulators: a source badge and a Futures Odds quick link; extend listSportsSeasonSimulatorSummaries with odds source info. - Tests: configurable priority override (Elo/projections/rating), oddsWeight parsing/clamping, prefersFuturesOdds, manifest defaults, an NCAA Football context-blend behavioral test, and an updated non-destructive save test. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01QhNeB7gN6VKene7sdbBVQT
801 lines
30 KiB
TypeScript
801 lines
30 KiB
TypeScript
/**
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* FIFA World Cup Simulator (2026+ 48-team format)
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*
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* Monte Carlo simulation covering both the group stage and knockout bracket.
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*
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* Algorithm:
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* 1. Load participants, futures odds, and bracket/group data from DB
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* 2. Build per-team Elo: from futures odds if available (blended 70/30 Elo+odds),
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* otherwise from hardcoded 2026 national team Elo ratings, fallback 1500.
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* 3. For each of NUM_SIMULATIONS iterations:
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* a. GROUP STAGE (12 groups × 6 matches each = 72 matches)
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* - Each match: compute P(win)/P(draw)/P(loss) from Elo difference
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* - Track pts / GD / GF per team; sort to determine group positions
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* - Group winner (pos 1) and runner-up (pos 2) always advance
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* - 3rd-place teams ranked across all 12 groups; top 8 also advance
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* b. KNOCKOUT (R32 → R16 → QF → SF)
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* - Standard single-elimination using Elo win probabilities
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* - Completed knockout matches use actual results
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* c. THIRD PLACE GAME
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* - SF loser 1 vs SF loser 2; winner = 3rd, loser = 4th
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* d. FINAL
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* - SF winner 1 vs SF winner 2; winner = 1st, loser = 2nd
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* 4. Accumulate integer placement counts; convert to probabilities.
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* Placement buckets → SimulationProbabilities mapping:
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* probFirst = P(champion)
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* probSecond = P(runner-up)
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* probThird = P(3rd place game winner)
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* probFourth = P(3rd place game loser)
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* probFifth–probEighth = P(QF elimination) / 4
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* R32/R16 losers → 0 (scoringStartsAtRound = "Quarterfinals")
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*
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* Group stage W/D/L probabilities:
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* pDraw = 0.28 × exp(−0.002 × |eloDiff|) (≈28% when equal, decreases with skill gap)
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* pWin = (1 − pDraw) × eloWinProb(eloA, eloB)
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* pLoss = 1 − pWin − pDraw
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*/
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import { database } from "~/database/context";
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import { eq, and } from "drizzle-orm";
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import * as schema from "~/database/schema";
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import { convertFuturesToElo, eloWinProbability } from "~/services/probability-engine";
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import { simulateEloSoccerMatch } from "./soccer-helpers";
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import { normalizeSimulationResultColumns } from "./simulation-probabilities";
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import { logger } from "~/lib/logger";
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import { FIFA_48 } from "~/lib/bracket-templates";
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import { FIFA_2026_R32_TEMPLATE, assignThirdPlaceSlots } from "~/lib/fifa-2026-bracket";
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import type { Simulator, SimulationResult, SimulationContext } from "./types";
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// ─── Name normalisation (same logic as elo-ratings bulk-import fuzzy match) ──
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function normalizeTeamName(name: string): string {
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return name.toLowerCase().replace(/[^a-z0-9\s]/g, "").replace(/\s+/g, " ").trim();
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}
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// ─── Parameters ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
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const NUM_SIMULATIONS = 10_000;
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const ELO_WEIGHT = 0.7;
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const ODDS_WEIGHT = 1 - ELO_WEIGHT;
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/** Base draw rate when teams are evenly matched. Decays with Elo difference. */
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const BASE_DRAW_RATE = 0.28;
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const DRAW_DECAY = 0.002;
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// ─── National team Elo ratings (eloratings.net, pre-2026 World Cup) ──────────
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// These are used when no futures odds are stored for a team.
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// Update before the tournament starts.
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const NATIONAL_TEAM_ELO: Record<string, number> = {
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"france": 2083,
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"england": 2047,
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"brazil": 2038,
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"spain": 2031,
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"belgium": 2003,
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"argentina": 1997,
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"portugal": 1993,
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"netherlands": 1988,
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"germany": 1978,
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"italy": 1966,
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"croatia": 1961,
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"uruguay": 1955,
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"colombia": 1950,
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"mexico": 1945,
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"usa": 1935,
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"united states": 1935,
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"senegal": 1930,
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"denmark": 1928,
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"switzerland": 1925,
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"austria": 1918,
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"morocco": 1915,
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"japan": 1912,
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"south korea": 1905,
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"ecuador": 1900,
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"poland": 1898,
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"australia": 1893,
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"nigeria": 1888,
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"iran": 1883,
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"cameroon": 1878,
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"ghana": 1875,
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"canada": 1870,
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"peru": 1865,
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"chile": 1862,
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"venezuela": 1858,
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"costa rica": 1853,
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"cote d'ivoire": 1850,
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"ivory coast": 1850,
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"egypt": 1848,
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"hungary": 1845,
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"turkey": 1842,
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"ukraine": 1838,
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"serbia": 1835,
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"czech republic": 1830,
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"romania": 1825,
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"slovakia": 1820,
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"new zealand": 1790,
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"saudi arabia": 1785,
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"qatar": 1780,
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"honduras": 1778,
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"panama": 1775,
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"el salvador": 1770,
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"guatemala": 1765,
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"cuba": 1760,
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};
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/**
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* Look up a national team's Elo rating using fuzzy name matching.
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* Priority:
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* 1. Exact normalized match
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* 2. Substring containment (either direction)
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* 3. Word-overlap (≥50% shared significant words)
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* Logs a warning when no match is found so mismatches are visible in server logs.
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*/
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function getTeamElo(name: string, fallback = 1500): number {
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const normalized = normalizeTeamName(name);
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const entries = Object.entries(NATIONAL_TEAM_ELO);
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// 1. Exact match
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const exact = entries.find(([k]) => k === normalized);
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if (exact) return exact[1];
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// 2. Substring containment (handles "Ivory Coast" ↔ "Cote d'Ivoire" aliases already in map,
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// and things like "United States" matching "usa")
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const contains = entries.find(([k]) => k.includes(normalized) || normalized.includes(k));
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if (contains) return contains[1];
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// 3. Word-overlap (≥50% shared words longer than 2 chars)
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const inputWords = normalized.split(" ").filter((w) => w.length > 2);
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if (inputWords.length > 0) {
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const overlap = entries.find(([k]) => {
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const kWords = k.split(" ").filter((w) => w.length > 2);
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const shared = inputWords.filter((w) => kWords.includes(w));
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return shared.length > 0 && shared.length >= Math.min(inputWords.length, kWords.length) * 0.5;
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});
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if (overlap) return overlap[1];
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}
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logger.warn(`[WorldCupSimulator] No Elo found for team "${name}" (normalized: "${normalized}") — using fallback ${fallback}`);
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return fallback;
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}
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// ─── Group stage helpers ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────
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/**
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* Simulate a single group stage match.
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* Returns "win" (team A wins), "draw", or "loss" (team B wins).
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*/
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export function simGroupMatch(eloA: number, eloB: number): "win" | "draw" | "loss" {
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return simulateEloSoccerMatch(eloA, eloB, {
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baseDrawRate: BASE_DRAW_RATE,
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drawDecay: DRAW_DECAY,
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});
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}
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interface TeamStats {
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id: string;
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pts: number;
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gd: number;
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gf: number;
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}
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interface GroupMatchResult {
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participant1Id: string;
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participant2Id: string;
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participant1Score: number | null;
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participant2Score: number | null;
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isComplete: boolean;
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}
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/**
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* Simulate a full round-robin group of 4 teams.
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* Completed matches (isComplete=true with real scores) are replayed with their
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* actual results; remaining matches are simulated via Elo.
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* This correctly handles partial group completion (e.g. 4/6 matches done).
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*/
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function simGroup(
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teamIds: string[],
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eloFn: (id: string) => number,
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completedMatches?: GroupMatchResult[]
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): TeamStats[] {
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const stats = new Map<string, TeamStats>(
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teamIds.map((id) => [id, { id, pts: 0, gd: 0, gf: 0 }])
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);
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// Build set of completed pairings keyed "minId:maxId" so we can skip them
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const completedPairs = new Set<string>();
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if (completedMatches) {
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for (const m of completedMatches) {
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if (!m.isComplete || m.participant1Score === null || m.participant2Score === null) continue;
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const sa = stats.get(m.participant1Id);
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const sb = stats.get(m.participant2Id);
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if (!sa || !sb) continue;
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const s1 = m.participant1Score;
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const s2 = m.participant2Score;
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sa.gf += s1; sa.gd += s1 - s2;
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sb.gf += s2; sb.gd += s2 - s1;
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if (s1 > s2) { sa.pts += 3; }
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else if (s2 > s1) { sb.pts += 3; }
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else { sa.pts += 1; sb.pts += 1; }
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// Mark this pairing as done so we don't re-simulate it
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const [p1, p2] = m.participant1Id < m.participant2Id
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? [m.participant1Id, m.participant2Id]
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: [m.participant2Id, m.participant1Id];
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completedPairs.add(`${p1}:${p2}`);
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}
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}
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// Simulate remaining (not-yet-played) matches
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for (let i = 0; i < teamIds.length; i++) {
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for (let j = i + 1; j < teamIds.length; j++) {
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const a = teamIds[i];
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const b = teamIds[j];
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const key = a < b ? `${a}:${b}` : `${b}:${a}`;
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if (completedPairs.has(key)) continue; // already applied above
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const result = simGroupMatch(eloFn(a), eloFn(b));
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const sa = stats.get(a);
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const sb = stats.get(b);
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if (!sa || !sb) continue;
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// Simple goal simulation: winner scores 1-2, loser 0-1, draw both 1
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let ga: number, gb: number;
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if (result === "win") {
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ga = Math.random() < 0.5 ? 2 : 1;
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gb = ga === 2 && Math.random() < 0.3 ? 1 : 0;
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sa.pts += 3;
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} else if (result === "loss") {
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gb = Math.random() < 0.5 ? 2 : 1;
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ga = gb === 2 && Math.random() < 0.3 ? 1 : 0;
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sb.pts += 3;
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} else {
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ga = gb = Math.random() < 0.5 ? 1 : 0;
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sa.pts += 1;
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sb.pts += 1;
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}
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sa.gf += ga; sa.gd += ga - gb;
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sb.gf += gb; sb.gd += gb - ga;
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}
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}
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return [...stats.values()].toSorted(sortTeams);
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}
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function sortTeams(a: TeamStats, b: TeamStats): number {
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if (b.pts !== a.pts) return b.pts - a.pts;
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if (b.gd !== a.gd) return b.gd - a.gd;
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return b.gf - a.gf;
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}
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// ─── Knockout helpers ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
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function simKnockout(
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teamA: string,
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teamB: string,
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eloFn: (id: string) => number,
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normalizedProb: (id: string) => number,
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oddsWeight: number = ODDS_WEIGHT
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): { winner: string; loser: string } {
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const eloProb = eloWinProbability(eloFn(teamA), eloFn(teamB));
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const oddsProb = normalizedProb(teamA);
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const blended = (1 - oddsWeight) * eloProb + oddsWeight * (0.5 + (oddsProb - 0.5));
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const winner = Math.random() < blended ? teamA : teamB;
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return { winner, loser: winner === teamA ? teamB : teamA };
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}
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/** A knockout matchup; either slot may be empty (TBD) before it's drawn. */
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interface KnockoutMatch {
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p1: string | null;
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p2: string | null;
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}
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/**
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* Ordered knockout round names derived from the template's `feedsInto` chain,
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* starting at `Round of 32`. Keeping this template-driven avoids hardcoded
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* round-name strings drifting from the bracket definition.
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*/
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function knockoutRoundChain(startName: string): string[] {
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const names: string[] = [];
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let current = FIFA_48.rounds.find((r) => r.name === startName);
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while (current) {
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names.push(current.name);
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const feedsInto = current.feedsInto;
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current = feedsInto ? FIFA_48.rounds.find((r) => r.name === feedsInto) : undefined;
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}
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return names;
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}
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/**
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* Run one knockout round keyed by matchNumber and advance winners into the next
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* round using the canonical tree rule (`nextMatchNumber = ceil(n/2)`, odd → p1,
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* even → p2) — identical to `advanceWinnerTemplate` so simulated paths match the
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* bracket the admin tooling produces. Completed matches (from `completed`) lock
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* in their real winner/loser; a half-filled match (a bye / partial draw)
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* advances the present team.
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*/
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function runKnockoutRoundByNumber(
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roundName: string,
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matches: Map<number, KnockoutMatch>,
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completed: Map<string, { winnerId: string; loserId: string }>,
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eloFn: (id: string) => number,
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normalizedProb: (id: string) => number,
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oddsWeight: number = ODDS_WEIGHT
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): {
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winnersByNumber: Map<number, string>;
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losersByNumber: Map<number, string>;
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nextRound: Map<number, KnockoutMatch>;
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} {
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const winnersByNumber = new Map<number, string>();
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const losersByNumber = new Map<number, string>();
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const nextRound = new Map<number, KnockoutMatch>();
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const placeIntoNext = (matchNumber: number, teamId: string): void => {
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const nextNumber = Math.ceil(matchNumber / 2);
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const existing = nextRound.get(nextNumber) ?? { p1: null, p2: null };
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if (matchNumber % 2 === 1) existing.p1 = teamId;
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else existing.p2 = teamId;
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nextRound.set(nextNumber, existing);
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};
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for (const matchNumber of [...matches.keys()].toSorted((a, b) => a - b)) {
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const m = matches.get(matchNumber);
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if (!m) continue;
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let winnerId: string | null = null;
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let loserId: string | null = null;
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const fixed = completed.get(`${roundName}:${matchNumber}`);
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if (fixed) {
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winnerId = fixed.winnerId;
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loserId = fixed.loserId;
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} else if (m.p1 && m.p2) {
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const result = simKnockout(m.p1, m.p2, eloFn, normalizedProb, oddsWeight);
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winnerId = result.winner;
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loserId = result.loser;
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} else if (m.p1 || m.p2) {
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winnerId = m.p1 ?? m.p2; // bye / partially-drawn match
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} else {
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continue; // empty match — nothing to advance
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}
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if (winnerId) {
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winnersByNumber.set(matchNumber, winnerId);
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placeIntoNext(matchNumber, winnerId);
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}
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if (loserId) losersByNumber.set(matchNumber, loserId);
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}
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return { winnersByNumber, losersByNumber, nextRound };
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}
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/**
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* Seed the Round of 32 from simulated group results using the official 2026
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* group-position template. `groupResults` maps group letter → finishing order
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* (index 0 = winner, 1 = runner-up, 2 = third). `qualifyingThirdGroups` are the
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* eight groups whose third-place team advanced; their slot assignment comes from
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* `assignThirdPlaceSlots`.
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*/
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function seedR32FromTemplate(
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groupResults: Map<string, TeamStats[]>,
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qualifyingThirdGroups: string[]
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): Map<number, KnockoutMatch> {
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const thirdAssignment = assignThirdPlaceSlots(qualifyingThirdGroups);
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const resolveSlot = (slot: (typeof FIFA_2026_R32_TEMPLATE)[number]["slot1"]): string | null => {
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if (slot.kind === "winner") return groupResults.get(slot.group)?.[0]?.id ?? null;
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if (slot.kind === "runnerUp") return groupResults.get(slot.group)?.[1]?.id ?? null;
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const group = thirdAssignment.get(slot.thirdSlotId);
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return group ? groupResults.get(group)?.[2]?.id ?? null : null;
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};
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const r32 = new Map<number, KnockoutMatch>();
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for (const spec of FIFA_2026_R32_TEMPLATE) {
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r32.set(spec.dbMatchNumber, { p1: resolveSlot(spec.slot1), p2: resolveSlot(spec.slot2) });
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}
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return r32;
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}
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/**
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* Standard single-elimination seed order for a bracket of `size` (a power of 2):
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* returns 1-based seed numbers in bracket position order so that seed 1 and 2
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* can only meet in the final. Used by the no-groups futures fallback.
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*/
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function standardSeedOrder(size: number): number[] {
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let order = [1];
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while (order.length < size) {
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const next: number[] = [];
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const rounds = order.length * 2 + 1;
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for (const seed of order) {
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next.push(seed, rounds - seed);
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}
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order = next;
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}
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return order;
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}
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/** Normalize a stored group label to a bare letter (e.g. "Group A" → "A"). */
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function normalizeGroupLabel(name: string): string {
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return name.trim().toUpperCase().replace(/^GROUP\s+/, "");
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}
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/**
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* No-groups fallback field: the top 32 participants by Elo, standard-seeded into
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* the 16 Round-of-32 matches so top seeds are spread across the bracket. The
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* field is fixed; only match outcomes vary between simulations.
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*/
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function buildFuturesR32(
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participantIds: string[],
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eloFn: (id: string) => number
|
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): Map<number, KnockoutMatch> {
|
||
const ranked = [...participantIds].toSorted((a, b) => eloFn(b) - eloFn(a)).slice(0, 32);
|
||
const order = standardSeedOrder(32); // 1-based seeds in bracket position order
|
||
const r32 = new Map<number, KnockoutMatch>();
|
||
for (let i = 0; i < 16; i++) {
|
||
const p1 = ranked[order[i * 2] - 1] ?? null;
|
||
const p2 = ranked[order[i * 2 + 1] - 1] ?? null;
|
||
r32.set(i + 1, { p1, p2 });
|
||
}
|
||
return r32;
|
||
}
|
||
|
||
// ─── Main simulator ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
|
||
|
||
export class WorldCupSimulator implements Simulator {
|
||
private readonly numSimulations: number;
|
||
|
||
constructor(numSimulations = NUM_SIMULATIONS) {
|
||
this.numSimulations = numSimulations;
|
||
}
|
||
|
||
async simulate(sportsSeasonId: string, context?: SimulationContext): Promise<SimulationResult[]> {
|
||
// Elo-vs-odds blend weight for knockout matches: configurable via the season
|
||
// input policy, defaulting to the historical 70/30 split without context.
|
||
const oddsWeight = context?.oddsWeight ?? ODDS_WEIGHT;
|
||
const db = database();
|
||
|
||
// 1. Load all participants for this season
|
||
const participantRows = await db.query.seasonParticipants.findMany({
|
||
where: eq(schema.seasonParticipants.sportsSeasonId, sportsSeasonId),
|
||
});
|
||
|
||
if (participantRows.length === 0) {
|
||
throw new Error(`No participants found for sports season ${sportsSeasonId}`);
|
||
}
|
||
|
||
const participantIds = participantRows.map((p) => p.id);
|
||
const participantNames = new Map(participantRows.map((p) => [p.id, p.name]));
|
||
|
||
// 2. Load stored ratings (sourceElo from Elo page, sourceOdds from futures page)
|
||
const evRows = await db
|
||
.select({
|
||
participantId: schema.seasonParticipantExpectedValues.participantId,
|
||
sourceOdds: schema.seasonParticipantExpectedValues.sourceOdds,
|
||
sourceElo: schema.seasonParticipantExpectedValues.sourceElo,
|
||
})
|
||
.from(schema.seasonParticipantExpectedValues)
|
||
.where(eq(schema.seasonParticipantExpectedValues.sportsSeasonId, sportsSeasonId));
|
||
|
||
const evMap = new Map(evRows.map((r) => [r.participantId, r]));
|
||
const participantSet = new Set(participantIds);
|
||
|
||
// 3. Build Elo map — priority: sourceElo (direct) > sourceOdds (converted) > hardcoded
|
||
const sourceEloMap = new Map<string, number>();
|
||
for (const r of evRows) {
|
||
if (r.sourceElo !== null && r.sourceElo !== undefined && participantSet.has(r.participantId)) {
|
||
sourceEloMap.set(r.participantId, r.sourceElo);
|
||
}
|
||
}
|
||
|
||
const hasOdds = evRows.some(
|
||
(r) => r.sourceOdds !== null && participantSet.has(r.participantId)
|
||
);
|
||
|
||
let eloFromOdds: Map<string, number>;
|
||
if (hasOdds) {
|
||
const oddsInput = evRows
|
||
.filter((r) => r.sourceOdds !== null && participantSet.has(r.participantId))
|
||
.map((r) => ({ participantId: r.participantId, odds: r.sourceOdds ?? 0 }));
|
||
eloFromOdds = convertFuturesToElo(oddsInput, "american");
|
||
} else {
|
||
eloFromOdds = new Map();
|
||
}
|
||
|
||
const eloFn = (id: string): number => {
|
||
if (sourceEloMap.has(id)) return sourceEloMap.get(id) ?? 1500;
|
||
if (eloFromOdds.has(id)) return eloFromOdds.get(id) ?? 1500;
|
||
const name = participantNames.get(id) ?? "";
|
||
return getTeamElo(name, 1500);
|
||
};
|
||
|
||
// 4. Build normalized futures win-probability map (vig removed)
|
||
const rawProbs = new Map<string, number>();
|
||
for (const id of participantIds) {
|
||
const ev = evMap.get(id);
|
||
if (ev?.sourceOdds !== null && ev?.sourceOdds !== undefined) {
|
||
rawProbs.set(id, Math.abs(ev.sourceOdds) > 0
|
||
? ev.sourceOdds > 0
|
||
? 100 / (ev.sourceOdds + 100)
|
||
: Math.abs(ev.sourceOdds) / (Math.abs(ev.sourceOdds) + 100)
|
||
: 1 / participantIds.length);
|
||
} else {
|
||
rawProbs.set(id, 1 / participantIds.length);
|
||
}
|
||
}
|
||
|
||
const totalRawProb = [...rawProbs.values()].reduce((s, p) => s + p, 0);
|
||
const normalizedProb = (id: string): number =>
|
||
totalRawProb > 0 ? (rawProbs.get(id) ?? 0) / totalRawProb : 1 / participantIds.length;
|
||
|
||
// 5. Resolve the bracket scoring event. Prefer a fifa_48 playoff event; if
|
||
// several playoff_game events exist, take the most recent so a re-created
|
||
// event wins over a stale one.
|
||
const playoffEvents = await db.query.scoringEvents.findMany({
|
||
where: and(
|
||
eq(schema.scoringEvents.sportsSeasonId, sportsSeasonId),
|
||
eq(schema.scoringEvents.eventType, "playoff_game")
|
||
),
|
||
});
|
||
const bracketEvent =
|
||
playoffEvents.find((e) => e.bracketTemplateId === FIFA_48.id) ??
|
||
playoffEvents.toSorted(
|
||
(a, b) => (b.createdAt?.getTime() ?? 0) - (a.createdAt?.getTime() ?? 0)
|
||
)[0] ??
|
||
null;
|
||
|
||
// 6. Load group stage data for the bracket event (real groups only — no
|
||
// synthetic fallback; misconfiguration is handled by regime selection).
|
||
const tournamentGroups = bracketEvent
|
||
? await db.query.tournamentGroups.findMany({
|
||
where: eq(schema.tournamentGroups.scoringEventId, bracketEvent.id),
|
||
with: {
|
||
members: true,
|
||
matches: true,
|
||
},
|
||
})
|
||
: [];
|
||
|
||
const groupDefs: Array<{
|
||
groupName: string;
|
||
teamIds: string[];
|
||
completedMatches: GroupMatchResult[];
|
||
}> = tournamentGroups.map((group) => ({
|
||
groupName: normalizeGroupLabel(group.groupName),
|
||
teamIds: group.members.map((m) => m.participantId),
|
||
completedMatches: group.matches
|
||
.filter((m) => m.isComplete)
|
||
.map((m) => ({
|
||
participant1Id: m.participant1Id,
|
||
participant2Id: m.participant2Id,
|
||
participant1Score: m.participant1Score,
|
||
participant2Score: m.participant2Score,
|
||
isComplete: m.isComplete,
|
||
})),
|
||
}));
|
||
|
||
// 7. Load all knockout matches: completed ones lock in real results; the
|
||
// Round of 32 participant slots give us the real draw when populated.
|
||
const knockoutMatches = bracketEvent
|
||
? await db.query.playoffMatches.findMany({
|
||
where: eq(schema.playoffMatches.scoringEventId, bracketEvent.id),
|
||
})
|
||
: [];
|
||
|
||
const completedByRoundAndNumber = new Map<string, { winnerId: string; loserId: string }>();
|
||
const r32Drawn = new Map<number, KnockoutMatch>();
|
||
for (const m of knockoutMatches) {
|
||
if (m.isComplete && m.winnerId && m.loserId) {
|
||
completedByRoundAndNumber.set(`${m.round}:${m.matchNumber}`, {
|
||
winnerId: m.winnerId,
|
||
loserId: m.loserId,
|
||
});
|
||
}
|
||
if (m.round === "Round of 32") {
|
||
r32Drawn.set(m.matchNumber, { p1: m.participant1Id, p2: m.participant2Id });
|
||
}
|
||
}
|
||
const r32IsDrawn = [...r32Drawn.values()].some((m) => m.p1 && m.p2);
|
||
// Fully drawn = every template R32 match has both slots populated. When true
|
||
// the group stage is irrelevant to the sim and can be skipped entirely.
|
||
const r32IsFullyDrawn = FIFA_2026_R32_TEMPLATE.every((spec) => {
|
||
const m = r32Drawn.get(spec.dbMatchNumber);
|
||
return Boolean(m?.p1 && m?.p2);
|
||
});
|
||
|
||
// 8. Choose simulation regime:
|
||
// A — R32 draw populated → simulate the real bracket.
|
||
// B — real groups present → simulate remaining group matches, then seed
|
||
// the R32 with the official 2026 template.
|
||
// C — neither → futures-seeded bracket fallback ("like other
|
||
// sports"), flagged via the result source.
|
||
const groupLabels = FIFA_48.groupStage?.groupLabels ?? [];
|
||
const canSeedFromTemplate =
|
||
groupDefs.length === 12 &&
|
||
groupDefs.every((g) => g.teamIds.length >= 3) &&
|
||
groupLabels.every((label) => groupDefs.some((g) => g.groupName === label));
|
||
const regime: "draw" | "groups" | "futures" = r32IsDrawn
|
||
? "draw"
|
||
: canSeedFromTemplate
|
||
? "groups"
|
||
: "futures";
|
||
|
||
if (regime === "futures") {
|
||
logger.warn(
|
||
`[WorldCupSimulator] No R32 draw and no canonical 12-group stage for season ${sportsSeasonId} — falling back to a futures-seeded bracket.`
|
||
);
|
||
}
|
||
|
||
// Futures fallback field: top 32 participants by Elo, standard-seeded once.
|
||
const futuresR32 = buildFuturesR32(participantIds, eloFn);
|
||
|
||
// 7. Monte Carlo simulation
|
||
const counts = {
|
||
champion: new Map<string, number>(),
|
||
runnerUp: new Map<string, number>(),
|
||
thirdPlace: new Map<string, number>(),
|
||
fourthPlace: new Map<string, number>(),
|
||
qfLoser: new Map<string, number>(),
|
||
};
|
||
for (const id of participantIds) {
|
||
counts.champion.set(id, 0);
|
||
counts.runnerUp.set(id, 0);
|
||
counts.thirdPlace.set(id, 0);
|
||
counts.fourthPlace.set(id, 0);
|
||
counts.qfLoser.set(id, 0);
|
||
}
|
||
|
||
// Knockout round names, derived from the bracket template (no magic strings).
|
||
const [R32, R16, QF, SF] = knockoutRoundChain("Round of 32");
|
||
const THIRD_PLACE_GAME =
|
||
FIFA_48.rounds.find((r) => r.name === SF)?.loserFeedsInto ?? "Third Place Game";
|
||
const FINAL = FIFA_48.rounds.find((r) => r.name === SF)?.feedsInto ?? "Finals";
|
||
|
||
/**
|
||
* Build the Round-of-32 matchup map for one simulation iteration, per regime.
|
||
* In regimes that need group results, simGroup is run per group (replaying
|
||
* completed matches, simulating the rest) and the official 2026 template
|
||
* seeds the advancers into the real bracket positions.
|
||
*/
|
||
const buildR32 = (): Map<number, KnockoutMatch> => {
|
||
if (regime === "futures") {
|
||
return new Map([...futuresR32].map(([k, v]) => [k, { ...v }]));
|
||
}
|
||
|
||
// Fully-drawn bracket: the real draw is the whole answer — no group sim.
|
||
if (regime === "draw" && r32IsFullyDrawn) {
|
||
return new Map(
|
||
FIFA_2026_R32_TEMPLATE.map((spec) => {
|
||
const drawn = r32Drawn.get(spec.dbMatchNumber);
|
||
return [spec.dbMatchNumber, { p1: drawn?.p1 ?? null, p2: drawn?.p2 ?? null }];
|
||
})
|
||
);
|
||
}
|
||
|
||
// Simulate every group and capture finishing order per group letter.
|
||
const groupResults = new Map<string, TeamStats[]>();
|
||
const thirdPlace: Array<{ group: string; stats: TeamStats }> = [];
|
||
for (const group of groupDefs) {
|
||
if (group.teamIds.length < 3) continue;
|
||
const sorted = simGroup(group.teamIds, eloFn, group.completedMatches);
|
||
groupResults.set(group.groupName, sorted);
|
||
if (sorted[2]) thirdPlace.push({ group: group.groupName, stats: sorted[2] });
|
||
}
|
||
const qualifyingThirdGroups = thirdPlace
|
||
.toSorted((a, b) => sortTeams(a.stats, b.stats))
|
||
.slice(0, 8)
|
||
.map((t) => t.group);
|
||
|
||
const seeded = seedR32FromTemplate(groupResults, qualifyingThirdGroups);
|
||
|
||
if (regime === "draw") {
|
||
// Partially-drawn bracket: honor the real draw and fill only the empty
|
||
// slots from the seeded teams — skipping any participant already placed
|
||
// by the real draw so no team appears in the R32 twice.
|
||
const alreadyDrawn = new Set<string>();
|
||
for (const m of r32Drawn.values()) {
|
||
if (m.p1) alreadyDrawn.add(m.p1);
|
||
if (m.p2) alreadyDrawn.add(m.p2);
|
||
}
|
||
const fillSlot = (drawn: string | null | undefined, seededTeam: string | null | undefined) => {
|
||
if (drawn) return drawn;
|
||
return seededTeam && !alreadyDrawn.has(seededTeam) ? seededTeam : null;
|
||
};
|
||
const merged = new Map<number, KnockoutMatch>();
|
||
for (const spec of FIFA_2026_R32_TEMPLATE) {
|
||
const drawn = r32Drawn.get(spec.dbMatchNumber);
|
||
const fallback = seeded.get(spec.dbMatchNumber);
|
||
merged.set(spec.dbMatchNumber, {
|
||
p1: fillSlot(drawn?.p1, fallback?.p1),
|
||
p2: fillSlot(drawn?.p2, fallback?.p2),
|
||
});
|
||
}
|
||
return merged;
|
||
}
|
||
|
||
return seeded;
|
||
};
|
||
|
||
for (let sim = 0; sim < this.numSimulations; sim++) {
|
||
// ── Knockout rounds ──────────────────────────────────────────
|
||
// R32 → R16 → QF → SF → Third Place Game + Final, advancing via the
|
||
// canonical ceil(n/2) tree. Completed matches lock in real results.
|
||
const r32 = runKnockoutRoundByNumber(R32, buildR32(), completedByRoundAndNumber, eloFn, normalizedProb, oddsWeight);
|
||
const r16 = runKnockoutRoundByNumber(R16, r32.nextRound, completedByRoundAndNumber, eloFn, normalizedProb, oddsWeight);
|
||
const qf = runKnockoutRoundByNumber(QF, r16.nextRound, completedByRoundAndNumber, eloFn, normalizedProb, oddsWeight);
|
||
const sf = runKnockoutRoundByNumber(SF, qf.nextRound, completedByRoundAndNumber, eloFn, normalizedProb, oddsWeight);
|
||
|
||
// QF losers (placements 5–8)
|
||
for (const id of qf.losersByNumber.values()) {
|
||
counts.qfLoser.set(id, (counts.qfLoser.get(id) ?? 0) + 1);
|
||
}
|
||
|
||
// Third place game (SF losers, ordered by SF match number)
|
||
const sf1Loser = sf.losersByNumber.get(1);
|
||
const sf2Loser = sf.losersByNumber.get(2);
|
||
if (sf1Loser && sf2Loser) {
|
||
const fixed3pg = completedByRoundAndNumber.get(`${THIRD_PLACE_GAME}:1`);
|
||
if (fixed3pg) {
|
||
counts.thirdPlace.set(fixed3pg.winnerId, (counts.thirdPlace.get(fixed3pg.winnerId) ?? 0) + 1);
|
||
counts.fourthPlace.set(fixed3pg.loserId, (counts.fourthPlace.get(fixed3pg.loserId) ?? 0) + 1);
|
||
} else {
|
||
const { winner: thirdWinner, loser: thirdLoser } = simKnockout(
|
||
sf1Loser, sf2Loser, eloFn, normalizedProb, oddsWeight
|
||
);
|
||
counts.thirdPlace.set(thirdWinner, (counts.thirdPlace.get(thirdWinner) ?? 0) + 1);
|
||
counts.fourthPlace.set(thirdLoser, (counts.fourthPlace.get(thirdLoser) ?? 0) + 1);
|
||
}
|
||
}
|
||
|
||
// Final (SF winners)
|
||
const sfWinner1 = sf.winnersByNumber.get(1);
|
||
const sfWinner2 = sf.winnersByNumber.get(2);
|
||
if (sfWinner1 && sfWinner2) {
|
||
const fixedFinal = completedByRoundAndNumber.get(`${FINAL}:1`);
|
||
if (fixedFinal) {
|
||
counts.champion.set(fixedFinal.winnerId, (counts.champion.get(fixedFinal.winnerId) ?? 0) + 1);
|
||
counts.runnerUp.set(fixedFinal.loserId, (counts.runnerUp.get(fixedFinal.loserId) ?? 0) + 1);
|
||
} else {
|
||
const { winner: champion, loser: runnerUp } = simKnockout(
|
||
sfWinner1, sfWinner2, eloFn, normalizedProb, oddsWeight
|
||
);
|
||
counts.champion.set(champion, (counts.champion.get(champion) ?? 0) + 1);
|
||
counts.runnerUp.set(runnerUp, (counts.runnerUp.get(runnerUp) ?? 0) + 1);
|
||
}
|
||
}
|
||
}
|
||
|
||
// 9. Convert counts to probabilities
|
||
const N = this.numSimulations;
|
||
const numQfLosers = 4; // 4 QF losers per sim
|
||
|
||
const source =
|
||
regime === "draw"
|
||
? "World Cup Monte Carlo (real bracket)"
|
||
: regime === "groups"
|
||
? "World Cup Monte Carlo (group stage + 2026 bracket seeding)"
|
||
: "World Cup Monte Carlo (futures fallback — no groups)";
|
||
|
||
const results: SimulationResult[] = participantIds.map((id) => {
|
||
const qfProb = (counts.qfLoser.get(id) ?? 0) / (numQfLosers * N);
|
||
|
||
return {
|
||
participantId: id,
|
||
probabilities: {
|
||
probFirst: (counts.champion.get(id) ?? 0) / N,
|
||
probSecond: (counts.runnerUp.get(id) ?? 0) / N,
|
||
probThird: (counts.thirdPlace.get(id) ?? 0) / N,
|
||
probFourth: (counts.fourthPlace.get(id) ?? 0) / N,
|
||
probFifth: qfProb,
|
||
probSixth: qfProb,
|
||
probSeventh: qfProb,
|
||
probEighth: qfProb,
|
||
},
|
||
source,
|
||
};
|
||
});
|
||
|
||
normalizeSimulationResultColumns(results);
|
||
|
||
return results;
|
||
}
|
||
}
|