brackt/app/routes/admin.sports-seasons.$id.futures-odds.tsx
Chris Parsons e5295812f6
Formalize simulator system with manifest, input-policy, runner, and admin UI (#409)
Introduces three new schema tables (simulator_profiles,
sports_season_simulator_configs, season_participant_simulator_inputs),
a central model layer (app/models/simulator.ts), and a single runner
entry point so every simulator run follows the same prepare → simulate
→ persist → snapshot → recalculate flow.

Key additions:
- manifest.ts: per-simulator display names, default configs, required/
  optional inputs, derivable-input declarations, and setup sections
- input-policy.ts: resolves sourceElo from projectedWins,
  projectedTablePoints, or sourceOdds; resolves ratings from sourceOdds;
  supports block / fallbackElo / averageKnown / worstKnownMinus strategies
- runner.ts: single entry point for admin simulation runs; materialises
  derived inputs, normalises result columns, zeroes omitted participants,
  snapshots EVs, and recalculates linked fantasy standings
- /admin/simulators: inventory page with per-season readiness and bulk run
- /admin/sports-seasons/:id/simulator: per-season setup page with readiness
  summary, input-policy editor, raw JSON config override, and CSV bulk input
- NCAAM/NCAAW simulators now read ratings from season_participant_simulator_inputs,
  falling back to the hardcoded name-keyed maps while DB data is being populated
- Clone flow copies simulator config by default; volatile inputs (odds, Elo)
  only copied when explicitly requested

Code-review fixes included in this commit:
- source field in compatibility bridge checked with !== null instead of !== undefined
- sourceEloRequirementLabel no longer appends "configured fallback" when the
  participant is already excluded from all resolved sources
- Duplicate inline label maps in input-policy.ts replaced with simulatorInputLabel
- save-config preserves existing inputPolicy when the submitted JSON omits it
- Input table truncation label added (Showing 20 of N)
- CSV description notes values must not contain commas
- N+1 comment added to listSportsSeasonSimulatorSummaries
- assertRegistrySchemaDriftFree called in manifest tests
- Runner test suite added covering happy path, already-running guard,
  readiness failure, empty results, and error recovery with status reset

Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-11 21:09:53 -07:00

368 lines
14 KiB
TypeScript

import { Form, redirect, useLoaderData, useActionData, useNavigation } from 'react-router';
import type { Route } from './+types/admin.sports-seasons.$id.futures-odds';
import { logger } from '~/lib/logger';
import { findSportsSeasonById } from '~/models/sports-season';
import { findParticipantsBySportsSeasonId } from '~/models/season-participant';
import { getAllParticipantEVsForSeason, batchSaveSourceOdds } from '~/models/participant-expected-value';
import { Button } from '~/components/ui/button';
import { Input } from '~/components/ui/input';
import { Label } from '~/components/ui/label';
import { Textarea } from '~/components/ui/textarea';
import {
Card,
CardContent,
CardDescription,
CardHeader,
CardTitle,
} from '~/components/ui/card';
import { useState } from 'react';
import { Loader2, Info, CheckCircle2, AlertCircle } from 'lucide-react';
import { runSportsSeasonSimulation } from '~/services/simulations/runner';
export function meta({ data }: Route.MetaArgs): Route.MetaDescriptors {
return [{ title: `Futures Odds — ${data?.sportsSeason?.name ?? "Sports Season"} - Brackt Admin` }];
}
export async function loader({ params }: Route.LoaderArgs) {
const sportsSeasonId = params.id;
const sportsSeason = await findSportsSeasonById(sportsSeasonId);
if (!sportsSeason) {
throw new Response('Sports season not found', { status: 404 });
}
const participants = await findParticipantsBySportsSeasonId(sportsSeasonId);
const existingEVs = await getAllParticipantEVsForSeason(sportsSeasonId);
// Show any saved odds regardless of what simulation ran afterwards
const existingOdds = new Map(
existingEVs
.filter(ev => ev.sourceOdds !== null)
.map(ev => [ev.participantId, ev.sourceOdds])
);
return {
sportsSeason,
participants,
existingOdds,
};
}
interface ActionData {
success?: boolean;
message?: string;
}
export async function action({ request, params }: Route.ActionArgs) {
const sportsSeasonId = params.id;
const formData = await request.formData();
const sportsSeason = await findSportsSeasonById(sportsSeasonId);
if (!sportsSeason) {
return { success: false, message: 'Sports season not found' };
}
const participants = await findParticipantsBySportsSeasonId(sportsSeasonId);
// Parse odds from form
const futuresOdds: Array<{ participantId: string; odds: number; name: string }> = [];
for (const participant of participants) {
const oddsValue = formData.get(`odds_${participant.id}`) as string;
if (oddsValue && oddsValue.trim() !== '') {
const odds = Number(oddsValue);
if (!isNaN(odds)) {
futuresOdds.push({
participantId: participant.id,
odds,
name: participant.name,
});
}
}
}
if (futuresOdds.length === 0) {
return { success: false, message: 'Please enter odds for at least one participant' };
}
if (!sportsSeason.sport?.simulatorType) {
return { success: false, message: 'This sport has no simulator type configured. Set one on the sport in the admin panel.' };
}
if (sportsSeason.simulationStatus === 'running') {
return { success: false, message: 'A simulation is already running. Please wait.' };
}
try {
// Persist the odds first so the simulator can read them.
await batchSaveSourceOdds(
futuresOdds.map(({ participantId, odds }) => ({ participantId, sportsSeasonId, sourceOdds: odds }))
);
await runSportsSeasonSimulation(sportsSeasonId);
} catch (error) {
logger.error('Error running simulation:', error);
return {
success: false,
message: error instanceof Error ? error.message : 'Simulation failed',
};
}
return redirect(`/admin/sports-seasons/${sportsSeasonId}/expected-values`);
}
function normalizeName(name: string): string {
return name.toLowerCase().replace(/[^a-z0-9\s]/g, '').replace(/\s+/g, ' ').trim();
}
export default function AdminSportsSeasonFuturesOdds() {
const { sportsSeason, participants, existingOdds } = useLoaderData<typeof loader>();
const actionData = useActionData<ActionData>();
const navigation = useNavigation();
// Initialize odds values from existing data
const [oddsValues, setOddsValues] = useState<Record<string, string>>(() => {
const initial: Record<string, string> = {};
participants.forEach(p => {
const existingOdd = existingOdds.get(p.id);
if (existingOdd !== undefined && existingOdd !== null) {
initial[p.id] = existingOdd.toString();
}
});
return initial;
});
// Bulk import state
const [bulkText, setBulkText] = useState('');
const [parseResults, setParseResults] = useState<{
matched: Array<{ participantId: string; name: string; odds: number; inputName: string }>;
unmatched: Array<{ inputName: string; odds: number }>;
} | null>(null);
function findParticipantMatch(inputName: string) {
const normalizedInput = normalizeName(inputName);
const normalized = participants.map(p => ({ p, n: normalizeName(p.name) }));
const exact = normalized.find(({ n }) => n === normalizedInput);
if (exact) return exact.p;
const contains = normalized.find(({ n }) => n.includes(normalizedInput) || normalizedInput.includes(n));
if (contains) return contains.p;
const inputWords = normalizedInput.split(' ').filter(w => w.length > 2);
const overlap = normalized.find(({ n }) => {
const pWords = n.split(' ').filter(w => w.length > 2);
const shared = inputWords.filter(w => pWords.includes(w));
return shared.length > 0 && shared.length >= Math.min(inputWords.length, pWords.length) * 0.5;
});
return overlap?.p ?? null;
}
function parseBulkText() {
const lines = bulkText.split('\n');
const oddsPattern = /^(.+?)\s+([+-]\d{2,6})\s*$/;
const matched: Array<{ participantId: string; name: string; odds: number; inputName: string }> = [];
const unmatched: Array<{ inputName: string; odds: number }> = [];
const seenParticipants = new Set<string>();
for (const line of lines) {
const trimmed = line.trim();
if (!trimmed || trimmed.length < 3) continue;
const match = oddsPattern.exec(trimmed);
if (!match) continue;
const inputName = match[1].trim();
const odds = parseInt(match[2], 10);
if (isNaN(odds)) continue;
const participant = findParticipantMatch(inputName);
if (participant && !seenParticipants.has(participant.id)) {
seenParticipants.add(participant.id);
matched.push({ participantId: participant.id, name: participant.name, odds, inputName });
} else if (!participant) {
unmatched.push({ inputName, odds });
}
}
setParseResults({ matched, unmatched });
}
function applyMatches() {
if (!parseResults) return;
const newOdds = { ...oddsValues };
for (const m of parseResults.matched) {
newOdds[m.participantId] = m.odds.toString();
}
setOddsValues(newOdds);
setParseResults(null);
setBulkText('');
}
const isSubmitting = navigation.state === 'submitting';
return (
<div className="container mx-auto py-8">
<div className="mb-8">
<h1 className="text-3xl font-bold mb-2">Futures Odds Entry</h1>
<p className="text-muted-foreground">
{sportsSeason.sport.name} - {sportsSeason.name}
</p>
</div>
{/* Bulk Import */}
<Card className="mb-6">
<CardHeader>
<CardTitle>Bulk Import</CardTitle>
<CardDescription>
Paste odds from FanDuel, DraftKings, OddsChecker, or any site. Each line should end with
American odds (e.g. <code>Kansas City Chiefs +450</code>). Team names are fuzzy-matched to
participants.
</CardDescription>
</CardHeader>
<CardContent className="space-y-4">
<Textarea
placeholder={`Paste odds here, one team per line:\nKansas City Chiefs +450\nSan Francisco 49ers +600\nBaltimore Ravens +700`}
value={bulkText}
onChange={e => { setBulkText(e.target.value); setParseResults(null); }}
rows={8}
className="font-mono text-sm"
/>
<Button type="button" variant="outline" onClick={parseBulkText} disabled={!bulkText.trim()}>
Parse Odds
</Button>
{parseResults && (
<div className="space-y-3">
{parseResults.matched.length > 0 && (
<div>
<div className="flex items-center gap-2 text-sm font-medium text-emerald-400 mb-2">
<CheckCircle2 className="h-4 w-4" />
Matched ({parseResults.matched.length})
</div>
<div className="rounded-md border border-emerald-500/30 bg-emerald-500/10 divide-y divide-emerald-500/20 text-sm">
{parseResults.matched.map(m => (
<div key={m.participantId} className="flex justify-between px-3 py-1.5">
<span className="text-muted-foreground">{m.inputName}</span>
<span className="font-medium">
{m.name} &rarr; {m.odds > 0 ? '+' : ''}{m.odds}
</span>
</div>
))}
</div>
</div>
)}
{parseResults.unmatched.length > 0 && (
<div>
<div className="flex items-center gap-2 text-sm font-medium text-amber-700 mb-2">
<AlertCircle className="h-4 w-4" />
Not matched ({parseResults.unmatched.length}) enter manually below
</div>
<div className="rounded-md border border-amber-200 bg-amber-50 divide-y divide-amber-100 text-sm">
{parseResults.unmatched.map((u) => (
<div key={u.inputName} className="flex justify-between px-3 py-1.5">
<span>{u.inputName}</span>
<span className="font-medium">{u.odds > 0 ? '+' : ''}{u.odds}</span>
</div>
))}
</div>
</div>
)}
{parseResults.matched.length === 0 && parseResults.unmatched.length === 0 && (
<p className="text-sm text-muted-foreground">No odds found. Make sure each line ends with a value like +450 or -200.</p>
)}
{parseResults.matched.length > 0 && (
<Button type="button" onClick={applyMatches}>
Apply {parseResults.matched.length} matched odds to form
</Button>
)}
</div>
)}
</CardContent>
</Card>
<div className="grid gap-6 lg:grid-cols-2">
<div>
<Card>
<CardHeader>
<CardTitle>Championship Futures Odds</CardTitle>
<CardDescription>
Enter American odds (e.g., +550, -200) for each participant's championship probability.
Enter American odds, then run the ICM simulation to compute and save probability distributions.
</CardDescription>
</CardHeader>
<CardContent>
<Form method="post" className="space-y-4">
<div className="space-y-3">
{participants.map((participant) => (
<div key={participant.id} className="grid grid-cols-2 gap-4 items-center">
<Label htmlFor={`odds_${participant.id}`}>{participant.name}</Label>
<Input
type="number"
id={`odds_${participant.id}`}
name={`odds_${participant.id}`}
placeholder="+550"
value={oddsValues[participant.id] ?? ''}
onChange={(e) =>
setOddsValues((prev) => ({
...prev,
[participant.id]: e.target.value,
}))
}
/>
</div>
))}
</div>
<div className="bg-muted p-4 rounded-lg space-y-2">
<div className="flex items-center gap-2 font-medium">
<Info className="h-4 w-4" />
ICM Calculation
</div>
<div className="space-y-1 text-sm">
<div>Uses Independent Chip Model from poker tournaments</div>
<div>Works with any number of participants</div>
<div className="text-xs text-muted-foreground mt-2">
Every team gets probabilities for 1st-8th place, even longshots.
</div>
</div>
</div>
{actionData && !actionData.success && actionData.message && (
<div className="text-sm text-destructive">{actionData.message}</div>
)}
<Button type="submit" disabled={isSubmitting}>
{isSubmitting && <Loader2 className="mr-2 h-4 w-4 animate-spin" />}
{isSubmitting ? 'Running...' : 'Run Simulation'}
</Button>
</Form>
</CardContent>
</Card>
<Card className="mt-4">
<CardHeader>
<CardTitle>How It Works</CardTitle>
</CardHeader>
<CardContent className="text-sm space-y-2">
<ol className="list-decimal list-inside space-y-2">
<li>Converts American odds to championship win probabilities</li>
<li>Removes bookmaker vig (normalizes to 100%)</li>
<li>Uses ICM algorithm to distribute probabilities across all placements</li>
<li>Generates probability distribution (1st through 8th place) for ALL participants</li>
<li>Even teams with +100000 odds get non-zero probabilities</li>
</ol>
</CardContent>
</Card>
</div>
</div>
</div>
);
}