500 trials with a ~3–5% expected win rate had enough variance to occasionally land below the 0.03 threshold (~2% failure rate). Bumping to 2000 trials reduces the std dev by 2x; lowering the threshold to 0.02 keeps the assertion meaningful (still well above random 0.78%) while eliminating the flakiness. Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com> |
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|---|---|---|
| .. | ||
| __tests__ | ||
| simulations | ||
| standings-sync | ||
| bracket-simulator.ts | ||
| discord.ts | ||
| ev-calculator.ts | ||
| icm-calculator.ts | ||
| probability-engine.ts | ||
| probability-updater.ts | ||