Add FIFA World Cup 2026 support with group stage display and Monte Carlo simulator (#242)
* Add FIFA World Cup 2026 support with group stage display and Monte Carlo simulator, fixes #127
- New `groupStageMatches` table for recording group play results (W/D/L, scores, matchday, schedule)
- `computeGroupStandings()` model function: pts → GD → GF → name tiebreaker ordering
- `GroupStageStandings` component showing all 12 groups with standings table and manager column
- Admin bracket UI: group match score entry, per-group standings, "Recalculate Floors" action
- `WorldCupSimulator`: 50k Monte Carlo covering group stage + best-8 3rd-place + knockout + 3rd place game
- Fuzzy name matching for national team Elo lookup (exact → substring → word-overlap), warns on miss
- Partial group completion: completed matches replayed with real scores, remaining matches simulated
- Elo priority: admin-entered sourceElo > futures odds converted to Elo > hardcoded national team ratings
- `fifa_48` bracket template: added Third Place Game round with `loserFeedsInto` on Semifinals
- Scoring rules: distinct 3rd/4th place for `fifa_48` (not averaged), QF losers share 5th–8th equally
- Floor scoring: SF participants guaranteed 4th (provisional), finalized after 3rd place game
- `recalculate-floors` admin action deletes and replays all results from scratch (fixes stale guard bug)
- Unique index on `(tournamentGroupId, participant1Id, participant2Id)` to prevent duplicate pairings
- Batch `findMatchesByGroupIds()` replacing N sequential queries in the sport season loader
- League home mini-standings now shows `actualPoints` (includes floor) instead of `totalPoints` only
- Elo ratings admin page supports World Cup (same bulk-import flow as snooker)
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* Fix TypeScript errors: update GroupStandingData type to use findMatchesByGroupIds
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* Increase Node heap to 4GB for unit tests in CI to prevent OOM
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* Fix OOM in CI: make WorldCupSimulator simulation count configurable for tests
Tests now pass numSimulations=500 instead of the production default of 50,000.
Six simulator tests × 50k iterations each was exhausting the 4GB heap on GitHub
Actions runners. Also reduce simGroupMatch stat tests from 50k to 5k iterations.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
---------
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-29 10:27:47 -07:00
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import { and, asc, eq, gte, inArray, lte, or } from "drizzle-orm";
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import { database } from "~/database/context";
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import * as schema from "~/database/schema";
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import { logger } from "~/lib/logger";
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export type GroupStageMatch = typeof schema.groupStageMatches.$inferSelect;
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export interface GroupStandingsRow {
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participantId: string;
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participantName: string;
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played: number;
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wins: number;
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draws: number;
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losses: number;
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gf: number; // goals for
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ga: number; // goals against
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gd: number; // goal difference
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points: number;
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}
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export interface UpcomingGroupMatch {
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matchId: string;
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groupId: string;
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groupName: string;
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sportsSeasonId: string;
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matchday: number;
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scheduledAt: string; // ISO string
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isComplete: boolean;
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participant1: { id: string; name: string };
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participant2: { id: string; name: string };
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participant1Score: number | null;
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participant2Score: number | null;
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}
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interface MatchInput {
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participant1Id: string;
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participant2Id: string;
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matchday: number;
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scheduledAt?: Date | null;
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}
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/**
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* Create the 6 round-robin matches for a tournament group.
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* Matches are created without scores (to be filled in as the tournament progresses).
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*/
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export async function createGroupStageMatches(
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groupId: string,
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matches: MatchInput[]
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): Promise<GroupStageMatch[]> {
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const db = database();
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return await db
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.insert(schema.groupStageMatches)
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.values(
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matches.map((m) => ({
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tournamentGroupId: groupId,
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participant1Id: m.participant1Id,
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participant2Id: m.participant2Id,
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matchday: m.matchday,
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scheduledAt: m.scheduledAt ?? null,
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}))
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)
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.returning();
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}
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/**
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* Generate all 6 round-robin pairings for 4 participants in a group.
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* Uses a fixed round-robin schedule (matchdays 1, 2, 3).
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*
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* Standard 4-team round-robin schedule:
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* Matchday 1: 1v4, 2v3
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* Matchday 2: 1v3, 4v2
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* Matchday 3: 1v2, 3v4
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*/
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export function generateRoundRobinPairings(
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participantIds: string[]
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): MatchInput[] {
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if (participantIds.length !== 4) {
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throw new Error("Round-robin generation requires exactly 4 participants");
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}
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const [p1, p2, p3, p4] = participantIds;
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return [
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{ participant1Id: p1, participant2Id: p4, matchday: 1 },
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{ participant1Id: p2, participant2Id: p3, matchday: 1 },
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{ participant1Id: p1, participant2Id: p3, matchday: 2 },
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{ participant1Id: p4, participant2Id: p2, matchday: 2 },
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{ participant1Id: p1, participant2Id: p2, matchday: 3 },
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{ participant1Id: p3, participant2Id: p4, matchday: 3 },
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];
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}
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/**
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* Record the result of a group stage match and mark it complete.
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*/
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export async function updateGroupStageMatchResult(
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matchId: string,
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participant1Score: number,
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participant2Score: number
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): Promise<GroupStageMatch> {
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const db = database();
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const [updated] = await db
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.update(schema.groupStageMatches)
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.set({
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participant1Score,
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participant2Score,
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isComplete: true,
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updatedAt: new Date(),
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})
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.where(eq(schema.groupStageMatches.id, matchId))
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.returning();
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return updated;
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}
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/**
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* Update the scheduled time of a group stage match.
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*/
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export async function updateGroupStageMatchSchedule(
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matchId: string,
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scheduledAt: Date | null
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): Promise<GroupStageMatch> {
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const db = database();
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const [updated] = await db
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.update(schema.groupStageMatches)
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.set({ scheduledAt, updatedAt: new Date() })
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.where(eq(schema.groupStageMatches.id, matchId))
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.returning();
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return updated;
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}
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/**
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* Fetch all matches for a group, with participant info.
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*/
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export async function findMatchesByGroupId(groupId: string) {
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const db = database();
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return await db.query.groupStageMatches.findMany({
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where: eq(schema.groupStageMatches.tournamentGroupId, groupId),
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orderBy: [
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asc(schema.groupStageMatches.matchday),
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asc(schema.groupStageMatches.createdAt),
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],
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with: {
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participant1: true,
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participant2: true,
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},
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});
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}
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/**
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* Fetch all matches for multiple groups in a single query.
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* Returns a Map from groupId → matches (ordered by matchday, createdAt).
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* Use this instead of calling findMatchesByGroupId N times.
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*/
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export async function findMatchesByGroupIds(
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groupIds: string[]
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): Promise<Map<string, Awaited<ReturnType<typeof findMatchesByGroupId>>>> {
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if (groupIds.length === 0) return new Map();
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const db = database();
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const rows = await db.query.groupStageMatches.findMany({
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where: inArray(schema.groupStageMatches.tournamentGroupId, groupIds),
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orderBy: [
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asc(schema.groupStageMatches.matchday),
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asc(schema.groupStageMatches.createdAt),
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],
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with: {
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participant1: true,
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participant2: true,
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},
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});
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const result = new Map<string, typeof rows>();
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for (const groupId of groupIds) result.set(groupId, []);
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for (const row of rows) {
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result.get(row.tournamentGroupId)?.push(row);
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}
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return result;
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}
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/**
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* Fetch all group stage matches for a scoring event (all groups combined).
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*/
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export async function findMatchesByEventId(eventId: string) {
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const db = database();
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const groups = await db.query.tournamentGroups.findMany({
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where: eq(schema.tournamentGroups.scoringEventId, eventId),
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with: {
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matches: {
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orderBy: [
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asc(schema.groupStageMatches.matchday),
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asc(schema.groupStageMatches.createdAt),
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],
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with: {
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participant1: true,
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participant2: true,
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},
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},
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},
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});
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return groups;
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}
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/**
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* Compute standings for a group from match results.
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* Sorted by: points desc → goal difference desc → goals for desc → name asc.
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*/
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export function computeGroupStandings(
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members: Array<{ participantId: string; participantName: string }>,
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matches: Array<{
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participant1Id: string;
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participant2Id: string;
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participant1Score: number | null;
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participant2Score: number | null;
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isComplete: boolean;
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}>
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): GroupStandingsRow[] {
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const stats = new Map<string, GroupStandingsRow>();
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for (const m of members) {
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stats.set(m.participantId, {
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participantId: m.participantId,
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participantName: m.participantName,
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played: 0,
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wins: 0,
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draws: 0,
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losses: 0,
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gf: 0,
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ga: 0,
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gd: 0,
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points: 0,
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});
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}
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for (const match of matches) {
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if (!match.isComplete) continue;
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if (match.participant1Score === null || match.participant2Score === null) {
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logger.warn(
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`[computeGroupStandings] Match between ${match.participant1Id} and ${match.participant2Id} is marked complete but has null scores — skipping`
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);
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continue;
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}
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const p1 = stats.get(match.participant1Id);
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const p2 = stats.get(match.participant2Id);
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if (!p1 || !p2) continue;
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const s1 = match.participant1Score;
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const s2 = match.participant2Score;
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p1.played++;
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p2.played++;
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p1.gf += s1;
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p1.ga += s2;
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p2.gf += s2;
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p2.ga += s1;
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p1.gd = p1.gf - p1.ga;
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p2.gd = p2.gf - p2.ga;
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if (s1 > s2) {
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p1.wins++;
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p1.points += 3;
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p2.losses++;
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} else if (s2 > s1) {
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p2.wins++;
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p2.points += 3;
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p1.losses++;
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} else {
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p1.draws++;
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p2.draws++;
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p1.points++;
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p2.points++;
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}
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}
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return [...stats.values()].toSorted((a, b) => {
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if (b.points !== a.points) return b.points - a.points;
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if (b.gd !== a.gd) return b.gd - a.gd;
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if (b.gf !== a.gf) return b.gf - a.gf;
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return a.participantName.localeCompare(b.participantName);
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});
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}
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/**
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* Get upcoming group stage matches (within a date window) for specific participants.
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* Used for calendar/schedule display on league home and team pages.
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*/
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export async function getUpcomingGroupStageMatchesForParticipants(
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sportsSeasonId: string,
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participantIds: string[],
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dateFrom: Date,
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dateTo: Date
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): Promise<UpcomingGroupMatch[]> {
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if (participantIds.length === 0) return [];
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const db = database();
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const rows = await db
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.select({
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matchId: schema.groupStageMatches.id,
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groupId: schema.tournamentGroups.id,
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groupName: schema.tournamentGroups.groupName,
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sportsSeasonId: schema.scoringEvents.sportsSeasonId,
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matchday: schema.groupStageMatches.matchday,
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scheduledAt: schema.groupStageMatches.scheduledAt,
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isComplete: schema.groupStageMatches.isComplete,
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participant1Id: schema.groupStageMatches.participant1Id,
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participant2Id: schema.groupStageMatches.participant2Id,
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participant1Score: schema.groupStageMatches.participant1Score,
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participant2Score: schema.groupStageMatches.participant2Score,
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})
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.from(schema.groupStageMatches)
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.innerJoin(
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schema.tournamentGroups,
|
|
|
|
|
eq(schema.groupStageMatches.tournamentGroupId, schema.tournamentGroups.id)
|
|
|
|
|
)
|
|
|
|
|
.innerJoin(
|
|
|
|
|
schema.scoringEvents,
|
|
|
|
|
eq(schema.tournamentGroups.scoringEventId, schema.scoringEvents.id)
|
|
|
|
|
)
|
|
|
|
|
.where(
|
|
|
|
|
and(
|
|
|
|
|
eq(schema.scoringEvents.sportsSeasonId, sportsSeasonId),
|
|
|
|
|
or(
|
|
|
|
|
inArray(schema.groupStageMatches.participant1Id, participantIds),
|
|
|
|
|
inArray(schema.groupStageMatches.participant2Id, participantIds)
|
|
|
|
|
),
|
|
|
|
|
and(
|
|
|
|
|
gte(schema.groupStageMatches.scheduledAt, dateFrom),
|
|
|
|
|
lte(schema.groupStageMatches.scheduledAt, dateTo)
|
|
|
|
|
)
|
|
|
|
|
)
|
|
|
|
|
)
|
|
|
|
|
.orderBy(asc(schema.groupStageMatches.scheduledAt));
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
if (rows.length === 0) return [];
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
// Load participant names for all involved participants
|
|
|
|
|
const allParticipantIds = [
|
|
|
|
|
...new Set(rows.flatMap((r) => [r.participant1Id, r.participant2Id])),
|
|
|
|
|
];
|
Canonical tournament layer: schema + backfill (1/2) (#365)
* refactor(schema): rename per-window tables to season_* prefix
Renames participants, participant_expected_values, participant_qualifying_totals,
participant_results, participant_surface_elos to season_* prefixed names.
Renames event_results.participant_id to season_participant_id.
Phase 1a of canonical tournament layer migration.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* refactor: rename participant.ts model file to season-participant.ts
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* refactor(models): update model layer to use renamed schema exports
Updated all model files to use the renamed schema exports from Task 1:
- participants → seasonParticipants
- participantExpectedValues → seasonParticipantExpectedValues
- participantQualifyingTotals → seasonParticipantQualifyingTotals
- participantResults → seasonParticipantResults
- participantSurfaceElos → seasonParticipantSurfaceElos
- eventResults.participantId → eventResults.seasonParticipantId
- db.query relation accessors updated
- Relation field .participant → .seasonParticipant where applicable
- Import paths updated: ./participant → ./season-participant
Files updated (14 model files + 3 test files):
- draft-pick.ts
- draft-utils.ts
- event-result.ts
- group-stage-match.ts
- participant-result.ts
- qualifying-points.ts
- scoring-calculator.ts
- scoring-event.ts
- sports-season.ts
- surface-elo.ts
- team-score-events.ts
- cs2-major-stage.ts
- golf-skills.ts
- participant-expected-value.ts
- __tests__/sports-season.clone.test.ts
- __tests__/auto-pick.test.ts
- __tests__/executeAutoPick.timer.test.ts
Typecheck errors decreased: 779 → 499 (280 fewer)
All model file errors related to renamed schemas resolved.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* refactor(routes): update route layer to use renamed schema exports
- Update model import from ~/models/participant to ~/models/season-participant
- Rename schema.participants to schema.seasonParticipants
- Rename schema.participantResults to schema.seasonParticipantResults
- Rename db.query.participants to db.query.seasonParticipants
- Update 9 route files and 1 test file
Affected files:
- admin.sports-seasons.$id.events.$eventId.bracket.server.ts
- admin.sports-seasons.$id.participants.tsx
- api/draft.force-manual-pick.ts
- api/draft.make-pick.ts
- api/draft.replace-pick.ts
- api/seasons.$seasonId.draft.ts
- leagues/$leagueId.draft-board.$seasonId.tsx
- leagues/$leagueId.sports-seasons.$sportsSeasonId.server.ts
- admin/__tests__/sports-seasons-participants.test.ts
Error count reduced from 499 to 453 (46 errors fixed).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* refactor(routes): update route files for schema rename
Update route imports from ~/models/participant to ~/models/season-participant
and fix references to .participant/.participantId on event results to use
.seasonParticipant/.seasonParticipantId after schema rename.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* refactor(services): update simulators and services for renamed schema
Update all simulators, services, and server files to use renamed schema tables:
- participants → seasonParticipants
- participantExpectedValues → seasonParticipantExpectedValues
- participantResults → seasonParticipantResults
- eventResults.participantId → eventResults.seasonParticipantId
Files updated:
- 20 sport simulators (NBA, NHL, NFL, MLB, etc.)
- probability-updater.ts
- standings-sync/index.ts
- sports-data-sync.server.ts
- server/socket.ts
Typecheck errors reduced from 365 to 0.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* migration: rename per-window tables to season_* prefix
* fix(tests): update mock query keys after participants table rename
Change mock db.query.participants to db.query.seasonParticipants in test
files to match the schema rename from commit 66145a9. This fixes
"Cannot read properties of undefined (reading 'findFirst'/'findMany')"
errors that occurred when production code queries db.query.seasonParticipants
but test mocks only defined the old participants key.
Files updated:
- app/services/simulations/__tests__/world-cup-simulator.test.ts
- app/routes/api/__tests__/draft.force-manual-pick.test.ts
- app/routes/api/__tests__/draft.force-manual-pick.timer-mode.test.ts
- app/routes/api/__tests__/draft.make-pick.timer-mode.test.ts
- server/__tests__/timer-autodraft.test.ts
- app/models/__tests__/team-score-events.test.ts
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* fix(tests): update remaining mock paths and keys after schema rename
* fix(tests): final two mock stragglers after schema rename
- draft-pick.test.ts: assertion on db.query.participantQualifyingTotals
- process-match-result.test.ts: mock key participants → seasonParticipants
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* chore: add post-phase1a baseline capture (temp, for diff verification)
* chore: capture pre-migration baselines
* chore: remove post-phase1a capture helper after verification
* schema: add canonical tournament & participant tables
Adds tournaments, participants (canonical), tournament_results, and
participant_surface_elos (canonical). Adds nullable tournament_id to
scoring_events and nullable participant_id to season_participants.
Phase 1b of canonical tournament layer migration.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* feat(models): add canonical tournament, participant, result, surface-elo models
Adds CRUD modules for the canonical tables created in commit 775b905.
Each module mirrors existing app/models conventions (database() from
~/database/context, schema from ~/database/schema, mock-based tests).
Key implementation notes:
- participant.ts exports use "Canonical" prefix (CanonicalParticipant,
createCanonicalParticipant, etc.) to avoid collision with existing
season-participant.ts exports
- All four models include comprehensive unit tests following the
audit-log.test.ts pattern
- Tests use mocked db responses (no real database access)
- Upsert functions use onConflictDoUpdate for appropriate unique constraints
Part of Phase 1b of canonical tournament layer migration.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* migration: create canonical tables, add nullable FKs
* scripts: add extractTournamentIdentity helper for backfill
Pure function that derives canonical (name, year) identity from a
scoring_events row, stripping trailing 4-digit years from the name or
falling back to eventDate. Used by the Phase 2 backfill to group
per-window events into canonical tournaments.
* scripts: add backfill orchestrator for canonical layer
Populates canonical tournaments, participants, tournament_results, and
participant_surface_elos from per-window data for qualifying-points
sports. Skips already-linked rows, is idempotent, and supports dry-run
mode.
Critical invariants enforced by the implementation:
- qualifying_points_awarded is never copied to tournament_results
- season_participant_qualifying_totals is never touched
- conflicting surface-Elo values between windows raise a loud error
(recorded in report.errors) rather than overwriting
* scripts: add backfill CLI with dry-run default
Wires backfill-canonical-layer.ts to a CLI entry point exposed as
`npm run backfill:canonical`. Defaults to --dry-run; requires --apply
to actually write. Supports --sport=<uuid> to limit to a single sport.
Exits 2 if the backfill reports errors (e.g., surface-Elo conflicts).
* fix(backfill-cli): wrap runBackfill in DatabaseContext.run
The orchestrator uses database() from ~/database/context, which requires
AsyncLocalStorage to be populated. Wrap the CLI invocation with
DatabaseContext.run(db, ...) using server/db's cached connection pool.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* fix(backfill-cli): exit 0 on success so pg pool doesn't block
The cached postgres connection pool keeps the Node event loop open after
main() returns. Explicit process.exit(0) on success mirrors the pattern
in scripts/capture-baseline.ts.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
---------
Co-authored-by: Chris Parsons <chrisp@extrahop.com>
Co-authored-by: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-01 20:13:18 -07:00
|
|
|
const participantRows = await db.query.seasonParticipants.findMany({
|
|
|
|
|
where: inArray(schema.seasonParticipants.id, allParticipantIds),
|
Add FIFA World Cup 2026 support with group stage display and Monte Carlo simulator (#242)
* Add FIFA World Cup 2026 support with group stage display and Monte Carlo simulator, fixes #127
- New `groupStageMatches` table for recording group play results (W/D/L, scores, matchday, schedule)
- `computeGroupStandings()` model function: pts → GD → GF → name tiebreaker ordering
- `GroupStageStandings` component showing all 12 groups with standings table and manager column
- Admin bracket UI: group match score entry, per-group standings, "Recalculate Floors" action
- `WorldCupSimulator`: 50k Monte Carlo covering group stage + best-8 3rd-place + knockout + 3rd place game
- Fuzzy name matching for national team Elo lookup (exact → substring → word-overlap), warns on miss
- Partial group completion: completed matches replayed with real scores, remaining matches simulated
- Elo priority: admin-entered sourceElo > futures odds converted to Elo > hardcoded national team ratings
- `fifa_48` bracket template: added Third Place Game round with `loserFeedsInto` on Semifinals
- Scoring rules: distinct 3rd/4th place for `fifa_48` (not averaged), QF losers share 5th–8th equally
- Floor scoring: SF participants guaranteed 4th (provisional), finalized after 3rd place game
- `recalculate-floors` admin action deletes and replays all results from scratch (fixes stale guard bug)
- Unique index on `(tournamentGroupId, participant1Id, participant2Id)` to prevent duplicate pairings
- Batch `findMatchesByGroupIds()` replacing N sequential queries in the sport season loader
- League home mini-standings now shows `actualPoints` (includes floor) instead of `totalPoints` only
- Elo ratings admin page supports World Cup (same bulk-import flow as snooker)
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* Fix TypeScript errors: update GroupStandingData type to use findMatchesByGroupIds
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* Increase Node heap to 4GB for unit tests in CI to prevent OOM
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* Fix OOM in CI: make WorldCupSimulator simulation count configurable for tests
Tests now pass numSimulations=500 instead of the production default of 50,000.
Six simulator tests × 50k iterations each was exhausting the 4GB heap on GitHub
Actions runners. Also reduce simGroupMatch stat tests from 50k to 5k iterations.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
---------
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-29 10:27:47 -07:00
|
|
|
});
|
|
|
|
|
const participantMap = new Map(participantRows.map((p) => [p.id, p]));
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
return rows
|
|
|
|
|
.filter((r) => r.scheduledAt !== null)
|
|
|
|
|
.map((r) => {
|
|
|
|
|
const p1 = participantMap.get(r.participant1Id);
|
|
|
|
|
const p2 = participantMap.get(r.participant2Id);
|
|
|
|
|
return {
|
|
|
|
|
matchId: r.matchId,
|
|
|
|
|
groupId: r.groupId,
|
|
|
|
|
groupName: r.groupName,
|
|
|
|
|
sportsSeasonId: r.sportsSeasonId,
|
|
|
|
|
matchday: r.matchday,
|
|
|
|
|
scheduledAt: r.scheduledAt?.toISOString() ?? "",
|
|
|
|
|
isComplete: r.isComplete,
|
|
|
|
|
participant1: { id: r.participant1Id, name: p1?.name ?? "Unknown" },
|
|
|
|
|
participant2: { id: r.participant2Id, name: p2?.name ?? "Unknown" },
|
|
|
|
|
participant1Score: r.participant1Score,
|
|
|
|
|
participant2Score: r.participant2Score,
|
|
|
|
|
};
|
|
|
|
|
});
|
|
|
|
|
}
|