Add FIFA World Cup 2026 support with group stage display and Monte Carlo simulator (#242)

* Add FIFA World Cup 2026 support with group stage display and Monte Carlo simulator, fixes #127

- New `groupStageMatches` table for recording group play results (W/D/L, scores, matchday, schedule)
- `computeGroupStandings()` model function: pts → GD → GF → name tiebreaker ordering
- `GroupStageStandings` component showing all 12 groups with standings table and manager column
- Admin bracket UI: group match score entry, per-group standings, "Recalculate Floors" action
- `WorldCupSimulator`: 50k Monte Carlo covering group stage + best-8 3rd-place + knockout + 3rd place game
  - Fuzzy name matching for national team Elo lookup (exact → substring → word-overlap), warns on miss
  - Partial group completion: completed matches replayed with real scores, remaining matches simulated
  - Elo priority: admin-entered sourceElo > futures odds converted to Elo > hardcoded national team ratings
- `fifa_48` bracket template: added Third Place Game round with `loserFeedsInto` on Semifinals
- Scoring rules: distinct 3rd/4th place for `fifa_48` (not averaged), QF losers share 5th–8th equally
- Floor scoring: SF participants guaranteed 4th (provisional), finalized after 3rd place game
- `recalculate-floors` admin action deletes and replays all results from scratch (fixes stale guard bug)
- Unique index on `(tournamentGroupId, participant1Id, participant2Id)` to prevent duplicate pairings
- Batch `findMatchesByGroupIds()` replacing N sequential queries in the sport season loader
- League home mini-standings now shows `actualPoints` (includes floor) instead of `totalPoints` only
- Elo ratings admin page supports World Cup (same bulk-import flow as snooker)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* Fix TypeScript errors: update GroupStandingData type to use findMatchesByGroupIds

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* Increase Node heap to 4GB for unit tests in CI to prevent OOM

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* Fix OOM in CI: make WorldCupSimulator simulation count configurable for tests

Tests now pass numSimulations=500 instead of the production default of 50,000.
Six simulator tests × 50k iterations each was exhausting the 4GB heap on GitHub
Actions runners. Also reduce simGroupMatch stat tests from 50k to 5k iterations.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

---------

Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

.github/workflows/deploy.yml

@@ -49,6 +49,7 @@ jobs:
               run: npm run test:run
               env:
                   DATABASE_URL: postgresql://test:test@localhost:5432/brackt_test
+                  NODE_OPTIONS: --max-old-space-size=4096
 
     typecheck:
         name: ʦ TypeScript

app/components/sport-season/GroupStageStandings.tsx

@@ -0,0 +1,185 @@
+import type { GroupStandingsRow } from "~/models/group-stage-match";
+import { TeamOwnerBadge } from "~/components/ui/team-owner-badge";
+
+interface GroupMatch {
+  id: string;
+  matchday: number;
+  scheduledAt: string | null;
+  isComplete: boolean;
+  participant1Id: string;
+  participant2Id: string;
+  participant1Score: number | null;
+  participant2Score: number | null;
+  participant1: { id: string; name: string } | null;
+  participant2: { id: string; name: string } | null;
+}
+
+interface GroupData {
+  groupName: string;
+  standings: GroupStandingsRow[];
+  matches: GroupMatch[];
+}
+
+interface OwnerInfo {
+  teamName: string;
+  ownerName: string;
+  teamId: string;
+}
+
+interface GroupStageStandingsProps {
+  groups: GroupData[];
+  /** participantId → owner info, used to show which manager drafted each team */
+  ownershipMap?: Record<string, OwnerInfo>;
+  /** If true, shows all groups. If false, shows only groups with at least one completed match. */
+  showEmpty?: boolean;
+}
+
+function MatchResult({ match }: { match: GroupMatch }) {
+  const p1 = match.participant1?.name ?? "?";
+  const p2 = match.participant2?.name ?? "?";
+
+  if (match.isComplete && match.participant1Score !== null && match.participant2Score !== null) {
+    const s1 = match.participant1Score;
+    const s2 = match.participant2Score;
+    const result = s1 > s2 ? "w" : s1 < s2 ? "l" : "d";
+    return (
+      <div className="flex items-center gap-1 text-xs text-muted-foreground">
+        <span
+          className={`truncate max-w-[80px] ${result === "w" ? "font-semibold text-foreground" : ""}`}
+        >
+          {p1}
+        </span>
+        <span className="shrink-0 font-mono font-semibold text-foreground tabular-nums">
+          {s1}–{s2}
+        </span>
+        <span
+          className={`truncate max-w-[80px] text-right ${result === "l" ? "font-semibold text-foreground" : ""}`}
+        >
+          {p2}
+        </span>
+      </div>
+    );
+  }
+
+  const kickoff = match.scheduledAt ? new Date(match.scheduledAt) : null;
+  return (
+    <div className="flex items-center gap-1 text-xs text-muted-foreground">
+      <span className="truncate max-w-[80px]">{p1}</span>
+      <span className="shrink-0 text-muted-foreground/60">
+        {kickoff
+          ? kickoff.toLocaleDateString("en-US", { month: "short", day: "numeric" })
+          : "vs"}
+      </span>
+      <span className="truncate max-w-[80px] text-right">{p2}</span>
+    </div>
+  );
+}
+
+export function GroupStageStandings({
+  groups,
+  ownershipMap,
+  showEmpty = false,
+}: GroupStageStandingsProps) {
+  const visibleGroups = showEmpty
+    ? groups
+    : groups.filter((g) => g.matches.some((m) => m.isComplete) || g.standings.length > 0);
+
+  if (visibleGroups.length === 0) return null;
+
+  return (
+    <div className="space-y-4">
+      <h3 className="text-lg font-semibold">Group Stage</h3>
+      <div className="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-4">
+        {groups.map((group) => (
+          <div
+            key={group.groupName}
+            className="rounded-lg border bg-card text-card-foreground shadow-sm overflow-hidden"
+          >
+            {/* Header */}
+            <div className="px-4 py-2 bg-muted/50 border-b">
+              <h4 className="text-sm font-semibold">Group {group.groupName}</h4>
+            </div>
+
+            {/* Standings table */}
+            <div className="px-4 pt-3 pb-2">
+              <table className="w-full text-xs">
+                <thead>
+                  <tr className="text-muted-foreground border-b">
+                    <th className="text-left pb-1 font-medium">Team</th>
+                    <th className="text-left pb-1 font-medium">Manager</th>
+                    <th className="text-center pb-1 font-medium w-6" title="Played">P</th>
+                    <th className="text-center pb-1 font-medium w-6" title="Wins">W</th>
+                    <th className="text-center pb-1 font-medium w-6" title="Draws">D</th>
+                    <th className="text-center pb-1 font-medium w-6" title="Losses">L</th>
+                    <th className="text-center pb-1 font-medium w-8" title="Goal Difference">GD</th>
+                    <th className="text-center pb-1 font-medium w-7" title="Points">Pts</th>
+                  </tr>
+                </thead>
+                <tbody>
+                  {group.standings.map((row, idx) => {
+                    const owner = ownershipMap?.[row.participantId];
+                    return (
+                      <tr
+                        key={row.participantId}
+                        className={`border-b last:border-0 ${
+                          idx < 2
+                            ? "text-green-700 dark:text-green-400"
+                            : "text-muted-foreground"
+                        }`}
+                      >
+                        <td className="py-1 font-medium text-foreground">
+                          <span className="truncate block">
+                            {row.participantName}
+                            {idx < 2 && (
+                              <span className="ml-1 text-green-600 dark:text-green-400 text-[10px]">↑</span>
+                            )}
+                          </span>
+                        </td>
+                        <td className="py-1">
+                          {owner
+                            ? <TeamOwnerBadge teamName={owner.teamName} ownerName={owner.ownerName} />
+                            : <span className="text-xs text-muted-foreground/50">—</span>
+                          }
+                        </td>
+                        <td className="text-center tabular-nums">{row.played}</td>
+                        <td className="text-center tabular-nums">{row.wins}</td>
+                        <td className="text-center tabular-nums">{row.draws}</td>
+                        <td className="text-center tabular-nums">{row.losses}</td>
+                        <td className="text-center tabular-nums">
+                          {row.gd > 0 ? `+${row.gd}` : row.gd}
+                        </td>
+                        <td className="text-center tabular-nums font-semibold text-foreground">
+                          {row.points}
+                        </td>
+                      </tr>
+                    );
+                  })}
+                </tbody>
+              </table>
+            </div>
+
+            {/* Match results */}
+            {group.matches.length > 0 && (
+              <div className="px-4 pb-3 space-y-0.5 border-t pt-2">
+                {[1, 2, 3].map((day) => {
+                  const dayMatches = group.matches.filter((m) => m.matchday === day);
+                  if (dayMatches.length === 0) return null;
+                  return (
+                    <div key={day} className="space-y-0.5">
+                      <p className="text-[10px] text-muted-foreground/70 uppercase tracking-wide pt-1">
+                        MD {day}
+                      </p>
+                      {dayMatches.map((m) => (
+                        <MatchResult key={m.id} match={m} />
+                      ))}
+                    </div>
+                  );
+                })}
+              </div>
+            )}
+          </div>
+        ))}
+      </div>
+    </div>
+  );
+}

app/lib/bracket-templates.ts

@@ -14,6 +14,11 @@ export interface BracketRound {
   feedsInto: string | null;
   /** Whether this round affects fantasy points (false = 0 points per Q20) */
   isScoring: boolean;
+  /**
+   * Name of the round that *losers* advance to (e.g., "Third Place Game" for SF losers).
+   * When set, the loser of each match in this round is placed into the target round.
+   */
+  loserFeedsInto?: string | null;
 }
 
 export interface GroupStageConfig {
@@ -544,6 +549,13 @@ export const FIFA_48: BracketTemplate = {
       matchCount: 2,
       feedsInto: "Finals",
       isScoring: true,
+      loserFeedsInto: "Third Place Game",
+    },
+    {
+      name: "Third Place Game",
+      matchCount: 1,
+      feedsInto: null,
+      isScoring: true,
     },
     {
       name: "Finals",

app/models/__tests__/group-stage-match.test.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,190 @@
+import { describe, expect, it } from "vitest";
+import {
+  computeGroupStandings,
+  generateRoundRobinPairings,
+} from "../group-stage-match";
+
+const TEAMS = [
+  { participantId: "t1", participantName: "Brazil" },
+  { participantId: "t2", participantName: "France" },
+  { participantId: "t3", participantName: "Germany" },
+  { participantId: "t4", participantName: "Argentina" },
+];
+
+function match(
+  p1: string,
+  p2: string,
+  s1: number,
+  s2: number,
+  isComplete = true
+) {
+  return {
+    participant1Id: p1,
+    participant2Id: p2,
+    participant1Score: s1,
+    participant2Score: s2,
+    isComplete,
+  };
+}
+
+function findTeam(
+  standings: ReturnType<typeof computeGroupStandings>,
+  id: string
+) {
+  const row = standings.find((s) => s.participantId === id);
+  if (!row) throw new Error(`Team ${id} not found in standings`);
+  return row;
+}
+
+describe("computeGroupStandings", () => {
+  it("returns all four teams with zeroes when no matches are complete", () => {
+    const standings = computeGroupStandings(TEAMS, [
+      {
+        participant1Id: "t1",
+        participant2Id: "t2",
+        participant1Score: null,
+        participant2Score: null,
+        isComplete: false,
+      },
+    ]);
+    expect(standings).toHaveLength(4);
+    for (const row of standings) {
+      expect(row.played).toBe(0);
+      expect(row.points).toBe(0);
+    }
+  });
+
+  it("awards 3 points for a win and 0 for a loss", () => {
+    const standings = computeGroupStandings(TEAMS, [match("t1", "t2", 2, 0)]);
+    const brazil = findTeam(standings, "t1");
+    const france = findTeam(standings, "t2");
+    expect(brazil.points).toBe(3);
+    expect(brazil.wins).toBe(1);
+    expect(france.points).toBe(0);
+    expect(france.losses).toBe(1);
+  });
+
+  it("awards 1 point each for a draw", () => {
+    const standings = computeGroupStandings(TEAMS, [match("t1", "t2", 1, 1)]);
+    const brazil = findTeam(standings, "t1");
+    const france = findTeam(standings, "t2");
+    expect(brazil.points).toBe(1);
+    expect(brazil.draws).toBe(1);
+    expect(france.points).toBe(1);
+    expect(france.draws).toBe(1);
+  });
+
+  it("tracks goals for, against, and difference correctly", () => {
+    const standings = computeGroupStandings(TEAMS, [match("t1", "t2", 3, 1)]);
+    const brazil = findTeam(standings, "t1");
+    const france = findTeam(standings, "t2");
+    expect(brazil.gf).toBe(3);
+    expect(brazil.ga).toBe(1);
+    expect(brazil.gd).toBe(2);
+    expect(france.gf).toBe(1);
+    expect(france.ga).toBe(3);
+    expect(france.gd).toBe(-2);
+  });
+
+  it("sorts by points descending", () => {
+    const standings = computeGroupStandings(TEAMS, [
+      match("t1", "t2", 2, 0), // Brazil 3pts
+      match("t3", "t4", 1, 0), // Germany 3pts
+      match("t1", "t3", 0, 0), // Brazil 1pt, Germany 1pt
+      match("t2", "t4", 2, 0), // France 3pts
+    ]);
+    const ids = standings.map((s) => s.participantId);
+    // Brazil: 4pts gd+2, Germany: 4pts gd-1, France: 3pts, Argentina: 0pts
+    expect(ids[0]).toBe("t1"); // Brazil
+    expect(ids[1]).toBe("t3"); // Germany
+    expect(ids[2]).toBe("t2"); // France
+    expect(ids[3]).toBe("t4"); // Argentina
+  });
+
+  it("uses goal difference as tiebreaker after points", () => {
+    const standings = computeGroupStandings(TEAMS, [
+      match("t1", "t3", 3, 0), // Brazil big win
+      match("t2", "t4", 1, 0), // France narrow win
+    ]);
+    expect(standings[0].participantId).toBe("t1"); // Brazil: 3pts, gd+3
+    expect(standings[1].participantId).toBe("t2"); // France: 3pts, gd+1
+  });
+
+  it("uses goals for as tiebreaker when points and gd are equal", () => {
+    const standings = computeGroupStandings(TEAMS, [
+      match("t1", "t3", 2, 1), // Brazil: 3pts, gd+1, gf2
+      match("t2", "t4", 3, 2), // France: 3pts, gd+1, gf3
+    ]);
+    expect(standings[0].participantId).toBe("t2"); // France higher gf
+    expect(standings[1].participantId).toBe("t1");
+  });
+
+  it("falls back to alphabetical name when fully tied", () => {
+    const standings = computeGroupStandings(TEAMS, [
+      match("t1", "t3", 1, 0),
+      match("t2", "t4", 1, 0),
+    ]);
+    // Both t1 (Brazil) and t2 (France) have 3pts, gd+1, gf1
+    expect(standings[0].participantId).toBe("t1"); // Brazil < France alphabetically
+    expect(standings[1].participantId).toBe("t2");
+  });
+
+  it("handles a full 6-match group correctly", () => {
+    const standings = computeGroupStandings(TEAMS, [
+      match("t1", "t4", 3, 0), // Brazil beat Argentina
+      match("t2", "t3", 2, 1), // France beat Germany
+      match("t1", "t3", 2, 0), // Brazil beat Germany
+      match("t4", "t2", 0, 1), // France beat Argentina
+      match("t1", "t2", 1, 0), // Brazil beat France
+      match("t3", "t4", 2, 1), // Germany beat Argentina
+    ]);
+    expect(standings[0].participantId).toBe("t1"); // Brazil 9pts
+    expect(standings[0].points).toBe(9);
+    expect(standings[1].participantId).toBe("t2"); // France 6pts
+    expect(standings[2].participantId).toBe("t3"); // Germany 3pts
+    expect(standings[3].participantId).toBe("t4"); // Argentina 0pts
+  });
+
+  it("skips incomplete matches", () => {
+    const standings = computeGroupStandings(TEAMS, [
+      match("t1", "t2", 2, 0, true),
+      match("t3", "t4", 1, 0, false),
+    ]);
+    expect(findTeam(standings, "t1").played).toBe(1);
+    expect(findTeam(standings, "t3").played).toBe(0);
+  });
+});
+
+describe("generateRoundRobinPairings", () => {
+  it("generates exactly 6 pairings for 4 teams", () => {
+    const pairings = generateRoundRobinPairings(["t1", "t2", "t3", "t4"]);
+    expect(pairings).toHaveLength(6);
+  });
+
+  it("covers all 6 unique matchups", () => {
+    const pairings = generateRoundRobinPairings(["t1", "t2", "t3", "t4"]);
+    const keys = new Set(
+      pairings.map((p) =>
+        [p.participant1Id, p.participant2Id].toSorted().join("-")
+      )
+    );
+    expect(keys.size).toBe(6);
+  });
+
+  it("uses matchdays 1, 2, and 3", () => {
+    const pairings = generateRoundRobinPairings(["t1", "t2", "t3", "t4"]);
+    const matchdays = [...new Set(pairings.map((p) => p.matchday))].toSorted();
+    expect(matchdays).toEqual([1, 2, 3]);
+  });
+
+  it("has exactly 2 matches per matchday", () => {
+    const pairings = generateRoundRobinPairings(["t1", "t2", "t3", "t4"]);
+    for (const day of [1, 2, 3]) {
+      expect(pairings.filter((p) => p.matchday === day)).toHaveLength(2);
+    }
+  });
+
+  it("throws if not exactly 4 participants", () => {
+    expect(() => generateRoundRobinPairings(["t1", "t2", "t3"])).toThrow();
+  });
+});

app/models/group-stage-match.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,361 @@
+import { and, asc, eq, gte, inArray, lte, or } from "drizzle-orm";
+import { database } from "~/database/context";
+import * as schema from "~/database/schema";
+import { logger } from "~/lib/logger";
+
+export type GroupStageMatch = typeof schema.groupStageMatches.$inferSelect;
+
+export interface GroupStandingsRow {
+  participantId: string;
+  participantName: string;
+  played: number;
+  wins: number;
+  draws: number;
+  losses: number;
+  gf: number; // goals for
+  ga: number; // goals against
+  gd: number; // goal difference
+  points: number;
+}
+
+export interface UpcomingGroupMatch {
+  matchId: string;
+  groupId: string;
+  groupName: string;
+  sportsSeasonId: string;
+  matchday: number;
+  scheduledAt: string; // ISO string
+  isComplete: boolean;
+  participant1: { id: string; name: string };
+  participant2: { id: string; name: string };
+  participant1Score: number | null;
+  participant2Score: number | null;
+}
+
+interface MatchInput {
+  participant1Id: string;
+  participant2Id: string;
+  matchday: number;
+  scheduledAt?: Date | null;
+}
+
+/**
+ * Create the 6 round-robin matches for a tournament group.
+ * Matches are created without scores (to be filled in as the tournament progresses).
+ */
+export async function createGroupStageMatches(
+  groupId: string,
+  matches: MatchInput[]
+): Promise<GroupStageMatch[]> {
+  const db = database();
+  return await db
+    .insert(schema.groupStageMatches)
+    .values(
+      matches.map((m) => ({
+        tournamentGroupId: groupId,
+        participant1Id: m.participant1Id,
+        participant2Id: m.participant2Id,
+        matchday: m.matchday,
+        scheduledAt: m.scheduledAt ?? null,
+      }))
+    )
+    .returning();
+}
+
+/**
+ * Generate all 6 round-robin pairings for 4 participants in a group.
+ * Uses a fixed round-robin schedule (matchdays 1, 2, 3).
+ *
+ * Standard 4-team round-robin schedule:
+ *   Matchday 1: 1v4, 2v3
+ *   Matchday 2: 1v3, 4v2
+ *   Matchday 3: 1v2, 3v4
+ */
+export function generateRoundRobinPairings(
+  participantIds: string[]
+): MatchInput[] {
+  if (participantIds.length !== 4) {
+    throw new Error("Round-robin generation requires exactly 4 participants");
+  }
+  const [p1, p2, p3, p4] = participantIds;
+  return [
+    { participant1Id: p1, participant2Id: p4, matchday: 1 },
+    { participant1Id: p2, participant2Id: p3, matchday: 1 },
+    { participant1Id: p1, participant2Id: p3, matchday: 2 },
+    { participant1Id: p4, participant2Id: p2, matchday: 2 },
+    { participant1Id: p1, participant2Id: p2, matchday: 3 },
+    { participant1Id: p3, participant2Id: p4, matchday: 3 },
+  ];
+}
+
+/**
+ * Record the result of a group stage match and mark it complete.
+ */
+export async function updateGroupStageMatchResult(
+  matchId: string,
+  participant1Score: number,
+  participant2Score: number
+): Promise<GroupStageMatch> {
+  const db = database();
+  const [updated] = await db
+    .update(schema.groupStageMatches)
+    .set({
+      participant1Score,
+      participant2Score,
+      isComplete: true,
+      updatedAt: new Date(),
+    })
+    .where(eq(schema.groupStageMatches.id, matchId))
+    .returning();
+  return updated;
+}
+
+/**
+ * Update the scheduled time of a group stage match.
+ */
+export async function updateGroupStageMatchSchedule(
+  matchId: string,
+  scheduledAt: Date | null
+): Promise<GroupStageMatch> {
+  const db = database();
+  const [updated] = await db
+    .update(schema.groupStageMatches)
+    .set({ scheduledAt, updatedAt: new Date() })
+    .where(eq(schema.groupStageMatches.id, matchId))
+    .returning();
+  return updated;
+}
+
+/**
+ * Fetch all matches for a group, with participant info.
+ */
+export async function findMatchesByGroupId(groupId: string) {
+  const db = database();
+  return await db.query.groupStageMatches.findMany({
+    where: eq(schema.groupStageMatches.tournamentGroupId, groupId),
+    orderBy: [
+      asc(schema.groupStageMatches.matchday),
+      asc(schema.groupStageMatches.createdAt),
+    ],
+    with: {
+      participant1: true,
+      participant2: true,
+    },
+  });
+}
+
+/**
+ * Fetch all matches for multiple groups in a single query.
+ * Returns a Map from groupId → matches (ordered by matchday, createdAt).
+ * Use this instead of calling findMatchesByGroupId N times.
+ */
+export async function findMatchesByGroupIds(
+  groupIds: string[]
+): Promise<Map<string, Awaited<ReturnType<typeof findMatchesByGroupId>>>> {
+  if (groupIds.length === 0) return new Map();
+  const db = database();
+  const rows = await db.query.groupStageMatches.findMany({
+    where: inArray(schema.groupStageMatches.tournamentGroupId, groupIds),
+    orderBy: [
+      asc(schema.groupStageMatches.matchday),
+      asc(schema.groupStageMatches.createdAt),
+    ],
+    with: {
+      participant1: true,
+      participant2: true,
+    },
+  });
+  const result = new Map<string, typeof rows>();
+  for (const groupId of groupIds) result.set(groupId, []);
+  for (const row of rows) {
+    result.get(row.tournamentGroupId)?.push(row);
+  }
+  return result;
+}
+
+/**
+ * Fetch all group stage matches for a scoring event (all groups combined).
+ */
+export async function findMatchesByEventId(eventId: string) {
+  const db = database();
+  const groups = await db.query.tournamentGroups.findMany({
+    where: eq(schema.tournamentGroups.scoringEventId, eventId),
+    with: {
+      matches: {
+        orderBy: [
+          asc(schema.groupStageMatches.matchday),
+          asc(schema.groupStageMatches.createdAt),
+        ],
+        with: {
+          participant1: true,
+          participant2: true,
+        },
+      },
+    },
+  });
+  return groups;
+}
+
+/**
+ * Compute standings for a group from match results.
+ * Sorted by: points desc → goal difference desc → goals for desc → name asc.
+ */
+export function computeGroupStandings(
+  members: Array<{ participantId: string; participantName: string }>,
+  matches: Array<{
+    participant1Id: string;
+    participant2Id: string;
+    participant1Score: number | null;
+    participant2Score: number | null;
+    isComplete: boolean;
+  }>
+): GroupStandingsRow[] {
+  const stats = new Map<string, GroupStandingsRow>();
+
+  for (const m of members) {
+    stats.set(m.participantId, {
+      participantId: m.participantId,
+      participantName: m.participantName,
+      played: 0,
+      wins: 0,
+      draws: 0,
+      losses: 0,
+      gf: 0,
+      ga: 0,
+      gd: 0,
+      points: 0,
+    });
+  }
+
+  for (const match of matches) {
+    if (!match.isComplete) continue;
+    if (match.participant1Score === null || match.participant2Score === null) {
+      logger.warn(
+        `[computeGroupStandings] Match between ${match.participant1Id} and ${match.participant2Id} is marked complete but has null scores — skipping`
+      );
+      continue;
+    }
+
+    const p1 = stats.get(match.participant1Id);
+    const p2 = stats.get(match.participant2Id);
+    if (!p1 || !p2) continue;
+
+    const s1 = match.participant1Score;
+    const s2 = match.participant2Score;
+
+    p1.played++;
+    p2.played++;
+    p1.gf += s1;
+    p1.ga += s2;
+    p2.gf += s2;
+    p2.ga += s1;
+    p1.gd = p1.gf - p1.ga;
+    p2.gd = p2.gf - p2.ga;
+
+    if (s1 > s2) {
+      p1.wins++;
+      p1.points += 3;
+      p2.losses++;
+    } else if (s2 > s1) {
+      p2.wins++;
+      p2.points += 3;
+      p1.losses++;
+    } else {
+      p1.draws++;
+      p2.draws++;
+      p1.points++;
+      p2.points++;
+    }
+  }
+
+  return [...stats.values()].toSorted((a, b) => {
+    if (b.points !== a.points) return b.points - a.points;
+    if (b.gd !== a.gd) return b.gd - a.gd;
+    if (b.gf !== a.gf) return b.gf - a.gf;
+    return a.participantName.localeCompare(b.participantName);
+  });
+}
+
+/**
+ * Get upcoming group stage matches (within a date window) for specific participants.
+ * Used for calendar/schedule display on league home and team pages.
+ */
+export async function getUpcomingGroupStageMatchesForParticipants(
+  sportsSeasonId: string,
+  participantIds: string[],
+  dateFrom: Date,
+  dateTo: Date
+): Promise<UpcomingGroupMatch[]> {
+  if (participantIds.length === 0) return [];
+
+  const db = database();
+
+  const rows = await db
+    .select({
+      matchId: schema.groupStageMatches.id,
+      groupId: schema.tournamentGroups.id,
+      groupName: schema.tournamentGroups.groupName,
+      sportsSeasonId: schema.scoringEvents.sportsSeasonId,
+      matchday: schema.groupStageMatches.matchday,
+      scheduledAt: schema.groupStageMatches.scheduledAt,
+      isComplete: schema.groupStageMatches.isComplete,
+      participant1Id: schema.groupStageMatches.participant1Id,
+      participant2Id: schema.groupStageMatches.participant2Id,
+      participant1Score: schema.groupStageMatches.participant1Score,
+      participant2Score: schema.groupStageMatches.participant2Score,
+    })
+    .from(schema.groupStageMatches)
+    .innerJoin(
+      schema.tournamentGroups,
+      eq(schema.groupStageMatches.tournamentGroupId, schema.tournamentGroups.id)
+    )
+    .innerJoin(
+      schema.scoringEvents,
+      eq(schema.tournamentGroups.scoringEventId, schema.scoringEvents.id)
+    )
+    .where(
+      and(
+        eq(schema.scoringEvents.sportsSeasonId, sportsSeasonId),
+        or(
+          inArray(schema.groupStageMatches.participant1Id, participantIds),
+          inArray(schema.groupStageMatches.participant2Id, participantIds)
+        ),
+        and(
+          gte(schema.groupStageMatches.scheduledAt, dateFrom),
+          lte(schema.groupStageMatches.scheduledAt, dateTo)
+        )
+      )
+    )
+    .orderBy(asc(schema.groupStageMatches.scheduledAt));
+
+  if (rows.length === 0) return [];
+
+  // Load participant names for all involved participants
+  const allParticipantIds = [
+    ...new Set(rows.flatMap((r) => [r.participant1Id, r.participant2Id])),
+  ];
+  const participantRows = await db.query.participants.findMany({
+    where: inArray(schema.participants.id, allParticipantIds),
+  });
+  const participantMap = new Map(participantRows.map((p) => [p.id, p]));
+
+  return rows
+    .filter((r) => r.scheduledAt !== null)
+    .map((r) => {
+      const p1 = participantMap.get(r.participant1Id);
+      const p2 = participantMap.get(r.participant2Id);
+      return {
+        matchId: r.matchId,
+        groupId: r.groupId,
+        groupName: r.groupName,
+        sportsSeasonId: r.sportsSeasonId,
+        matchday: r.matchday,
+        scheduledAt: r.scheduledAt?.toISOString() ?? "",
+        isComplete: r.isComplete,
+        participant1: { id: r.participant1Id, name: p1?.name ?? "Unknown" },
+        participant2: { id: r.participant2Id, name: p2?.name ?? "Unknown" },
+        participant1Score: r.participant1Score,
+        participant2Score: r.participant2Score,
+      };
+    });
+}

app/models/playoff-match.ts

@@ -922,6 +922,30 @@ export async function advanceWinnerTemplate(
 
   // Fill the determined slot
   await updatePlayoffMatch(nextMatch.id, { [participantSlot]: winnerId });
+
+  // If this round has a loserFeedsInto, also advance the loser to that round
+  if (currentRound.loserFeedsInto) {
+    const loserId =
+      match.participant1Id === winnerId ? match.participant2Id : match.participant1Id;
+    if (loserId) {
+      const loserRound = template.rounds.find((r) => r.name === currentRound.loserFeedsInto);
+      if (loserRound) {
+        const loserMatches = await findPlayoffMatchesByEventIdAndRound(
+          match.scoringEventId,
+          loserRound.name
+        );
+        const loserMatch = loserMatches[0];
+        if (loserMatch) {
+          // SF match 1 loser → participant1Id, SF match 2 loser → participant2Id
+          const loserSlot: "participant1Id" | "participant2Id" =
+            match.matchNumber === 1 ? "participant1Id" : "participant2Id";
+          if (!loserMatch[loserSlot]) {
+            await updatePlayoffMatch(loserMatch.id, { [loserSlot]: loserId });
+          }
+        }
+      }
+    }
+  }
 }
 
 /**

app/models/scoring-calculator.ts

@@ -29,9 +29,14 @@ interface RoundScoringConfig {
   loserIsPartial: boolean;
   /**
    * Guaranteed minimum position for the winner.
-   * null signals a Finals round: winner is finalized as 1st place (handled inline).
+   * null signals a finalization round: both winner and loser receive their exact positions.
    */
   winnerFloor: number | null;
+  /**
+   * When winnerFloor is null, the winner is finalized at this position.
+   * Defaults to 1 (champion) when omitted — set to 3 for a 3rd place game.
+   */
+  winnerPosition?: number;
 }
 
 /**
@@ -76,6 +81,14 @@ const TEMPLATE_ROUND_CONFIG: Record<string, Record<string, RoundScoringConfig>>
   afl_10: {
     "Semi-Finals": { loserPosition: 5, loserIsPartial: false, winnerFloor: 3 },
   },
+  fifa_48: {
+    // QF winner is guaranteed 4th at worst (lose SF → lose 3PG).
+    Quarterfinals:       { loserPosition: 5, loserIsPartial: false, winnerFloor: 4 },
+    // SF loser still has the 3rd place game — provisional 4th until it's played.
+    Semifinals:          { loserPosition: 4, loserIsPartial: true,  winnerFloor: 2 },
+    // 3rd place game finalizes both positions distinctly.
+    "Third Place Game":  { loserPosition: 4, loserIsPartial: false, winnerFloor: null, winnerPosition: 3 },
+  },
 };
 
 /**
@@ -259,12 +272,13 @@ export async function processPlayoffEvent(
         }
       }
     } else if (config.winnerFloor === null) {
-      // Finals: finalize both participants — winner gets 1st, loser gets 2nd.
+      // Finalization round: both participants receive their exact positions.
+      // winnerPosition defaults to 1 (champion); set to 3 for a 3rd place game.
       const finalMatch = matches[0];
       if (!finalMatch || !finalMatch.winnerId || !finalMatch.loserId) {
         throw new Error("Finals match is not complete");
       }
-      await upsertParticipantResult(finalMatch.winnerId, event.sportsSeasonId, 1, db);
+      await upsertParticipantResult(finalMatch.winnerId, event.sportsSeasonId, config.winnerPosition ?? 1, db);
       await upsertParticipantResult(finalMatch.loserId, event.sportsSeasonId, config.loserPosition, db);
     } else {
       // All other scoring rounds: assign loser's final (or provisional) position.
@@ -376,9 +390,9 @@ export async function processMatchResult(
       await upsertParticipantResult(loserId, sportsSeasonId, 0, db);
       await upsertParticipantResult(winnerId, sportsSeasonId, 5, db, true);
     } else if (config.winnerFloor === null) {
-      // Finals: finalize both participants.
+      // Finalization round: winner and loser both get their exact positions.
       await upsertParticipantResult(loserId, sportsSeasonId, config.loserPosition, db);
-      await upsertParticipantResult(winnerId, sportsSeasonId, 1, db);
+      await upsertParticipantResult(winnerId, sportsSeasonId, config.winnerPosition ?? 1, db);
     } else {
       // All other scoring rounds: loser gets final (or provisional) position, winner gets floor.
       await upsertParticipantResult(loserId, sportsSeasonId, config.loserPosition, db, config.loserIsPartial);

app/models/scoring-rules.ts

@@ -116,6 +116,12 @@ export function calculateAveragedPoints(
  */
 const SPLIT_5678_TEMPLATE_IDS = new Set(["afl_10"]);
 
+/**
+ * Brackets with a real 3rd place game, meaning positions 3 and 4 are distinct
+ * (not averaged). Standard brackets average them because both SF losers tie.
+ */
+const DISTINCT_34_TEMPLATE_IDS = new Set(["fifa_48"]);
+
 /**
  * Calculate fantasy points for a bracket placement, averaging tied positions.
  *
@@ -139,8 +145,11 @@ export function calculateBracketPoints(
   if (finalPosition <= 0) return 0;
   if (finalPosition === 1) return rules.pointsFor1st;
   if (finalPosition === 2) return rules.pointsFor2nd;
-  if (finalPosition === 3 || finalPosition === 4)
+  if (finalPosition === 3 || finalPosition === 4) {
+    if (bracketTemplateId && DISTINCT_34_TEMPLATE_IDS.has(bracketTemplateId))
+      return finalPosition === 3 ? rules.pointsFor3rd : rules.pointsFor4th;
     return calculateAveragedPoints([3, 4], rules);
+  }
   if (finalPosition >= 5 && finalPosition <= 8) {
     if (bracketTemplateId && SPLIT_5678_TEMPLATE_IDS.has(bracketTemplateId)) {
       // AFL-style: two separate 2-team tiers within 5–8

app/routes/admin.sports-seasons.$id.elo-ratings.tsx

@@ -11,7 +11,8 @@ import {
 } from '~/models/participant-expected-value';
 import { batchUpsertParticipantEvSnapshots } from '~/models/ev-snapshot';
 import { getSimulator, type SimulatorType } from '~/services/simulations/registry';
-import { calculateEV, type ScoringRules } from '~/services/ev-calculator';
+import { calculateEV } from '~/services/ev-calculator';
+import { DEFAULT_SCORING_RULES } from '~/lib/scoring-types';
 import { recalculateStandings } from '~/models/scoring-calculator';
 import { database } from '~/database/context';
 import * as schema from '~/database/schema';
@@ -30,16 +31,6 @@ import {
 import { useState } from 'react';
 import { Loader2, CheckCircle2, AlertCircle } from 'lucide-react';
 
-const DEFAULT_SCORING_RULES: ScoringRules = {
-  pointsFor1st: 100,
-  pointsFor2nd: 70,
-  pointsFor3rd: 45,
-  pointsFor4th: 45,
-  pointsFor5th: 20,
-  pointsFor6th: 20,
-  pointsFor7th: 20,
-  pointsFor8th: 20,
-};
 
 export function meta({ data }: Route.MetaArgs): Route.MetaDescriptors {
   return [{ title: `Elo Ratings — ${data?.sportsSeason?.name ?? "Sports Season"} - Brackt Admin` }];

app/routes/admin.sports-seasons.$id.events.$eventId.bracket.server.ts

@@ -40,6 +40,13 @@ import {
   getAdvancingParticipantIds,
   getEliminatedParticipantIds,
 } from "~/models/tournament-group";
+import {
+  createGroupStageMatches,
+  generateRoundRobinPairings,
+  updateGroupStageMatchResult,
+  updateGroupStageMatchSchedule,
+  findMatchesByGroupId,
+} from "~/models/group-stage-match";
 import { logger } from "~/lib/logger";
 import { database } from "~/database/context";
 import * as schema from "~/database/schema";
@@ -65,8 +72,14 @@ export async function loader({ params }: Route.LoaderArgs) {
   const participants = await findParticipantsBySportsSeasonId(params.id);
   const matches = await findPlayoffMatchesByEventId(params.eventId);
 
-  // Fetch tournament groups if this event has a group-stage template
-  const tournamentGroups = await findGroupsByEventId(params.eventId);
+  // Fetch tournament groups with their round-robin matches
+  const tournamentGroupsRaw = await findGroupsByEventId(params.eventId);
+  const tournamentGroups = await Promise.all(
+    tournamentGroupsRaw.map(async (group) => ({
+      ...group,
+      groupMatches: await findMatchesByGroupId(group.id),
+    }))
+  );
 
   // The matches already include participant relations from the model query
   return {
@@ -554,6 +567,63 @@ export async function action({ request, params }: Route.ActionArgs) {
     }
   }
 
+  if (intent === "recalculate-floors") {
+    try {
+      const event = await getScoringEventById(params.eventId);
+      if (!event) return { error: "Event not found" };
+
+      const matches = await findPlayoffMatchesByEventId(params.eventId);
+      const completed = matches.filter((m) => m.isComplete && m.winnerId && m.loserId);
+
+      if (completed.length === 0) {
+        return { error: "No completed matches to reprocess" };
+      }
+
+      // Delete ALL results for this sports season and rebuild from scratch.
+      // Only deleting partial rows leaves stale finalized rows that block
+      // the "never un-finalize" guard in upsertParticipantResult.
+      const db = database();
+      await db
+        .delete(schema.participantResults)
+        .where(
+          eq(schema.participantResults.sportsSeasonId, event.sportsSeasonId)
+        );
+
+      // Replay each completed match in bracket order (earlier rounds first).
+      const template = event.bracketTemplateId ? getBracketTemplate(event.bracketTemplateId) : null;
+      const roundOrder = template ? template.rounds.map((r) => r.name) : [];
+
+      const sortedMatches = completed.toSorted((a, b) => {
+        const ai = roundOrder.indexOf(a.round);
+        const bi = roundOrder.indexOf(b.round);
+        return (ai === -1 ? 999 : ai) - (bi === -1 ? 999 : bi);
+      });
+
+      for (const match of sortedMatches) {
+        await processMatchResult(
+          {
+            round: match.round,
+            winnerId: match.winnerId ?? "",
+            loserId: match.loserId ?? "",
+            isScoring: match.isScoring ?? true,
+            sportsSeasonId: event.sportsSeasonId,
+            bracketTemplateId: event.bracketTemplateId,
+            skipSideEffects: true,
+          }
+        );
+      }
+
+      await recalculateAffectedLeagues(event.sportsSeasonId);
+
+      return { success: `Recalculated floors from ${sortedMatches.length} completed match(es)` };
+    } catch (error) {
+      logger.error("Error recalculating floors:", error);
+      return {
+        error: error instanceof Error ? error.message : "Failed to recalculate floors",
+      };
+    }
+  }
+
   if (intent === "reprocess-eliminations") {
     try {
       // Get the event
@@ -735,7 +805,7 @@ export async function action({ request, params }: Route.ActionArgs) {
       // Create tournament groups
       const groups = await createGroupsForEvent(params.eventId, groupStage.groupLabels);
 
-      // Distribute participants into groups (in selection order)
+      // Distribute participants into groups (in selection order) and create round-robin matches
       for (let groupIndex = 0; groupIndex < groups.length; groupIndex++) {
         const startIdx = groupIndex * groupStage.teamsPerGroup;
         const groupParticipantIds = participantIds.slice(
@@ -743,6 +813,12 @@ export async function action({ request, params }: Route.ActionArgs) {
           startIdx + groupStage.teamsPerGroup
         );
         await addMembersToGroup(groups[groupIndex].id, groupParticipantIds);
+
+        // Create the 6 round-robin match pairings for this group
+        if (groupParticipantIds.length === 4) {
+          const pairings = generateRoundRobinPairings(groupParticipantIds);
+          await createGroupStageMatches(groups[groupIndex].id, pairings);
+        }
       }
 
       // Generate the empty knockout bracket structure
@@ -779,6 +855,49 @@ export async function action({ request, params }: Route.ActionArgs) {
     }
   }
 
+  if (intent === "update-group-match") {
+    const matchId = formData.get("matchId");
+    const p1Score = formData.get("participant1Score");
+    const p2Score = formData.get("participant2Score");
+
+    if (typeof matchId !== "string" || !matchId) return { error: "matchId is required" };
+    if (typeof p1Score !== "string" || typeof p2Score !== "string") {
+      return { error: "Both scores are required" };
+    }
+
+    const s1 = parseInt(p1Score, 10);
+    const s2 = parseInt(p2Score, 10);
+    if (isNaN(s1) || isNaN(s2) || s1 < 0 || s2 < 0) {
+      return { error: "Scores must be non-negative integers" };
+    }
+
+    try {
+      await updateGroupStageMatchResult(matchId, s1, s2);
+      return { success: "Match result saved" };
+    } catch (error) {
+      logger.error("Error updating group match:", error);
+      return { error: error instanceof Error ? error.message : "Failed to update match" };
+    }
+  }
+
+  if (intent === "update-group-match-schedule") {
+    const matchId = formData.get("matchId");
+    const scheduledAt = formData.get("scheduledAt");
+
+    if (typeof matchId !== "string" || !matchId) return { error: "matchId is required" };
+
+    try {
+      const dateValue = typeof scheduledAt === "string" && scheduledAt
+        ? new Date(scheduledAt)
+        : null;
+      await updateGroupStageMatchSchedule(matchId, dateValue);
+      return { success: "Match time saved" };
+    } catch (error) {
+      logger.error("Error updating group match schedule:", error);
+      return { error: error instanceof Error ? error.message : "Failed to update schedule" };
+    }
+  }
+
   if (intent === "populate-knockout") {
     try {
       const event = await getScoringEventById(params.eventId);

app/routes/admin.sports-seasons.$id.events.$eventId.bracket.tsx

@@ -23,6 +23,7 @@ import {
 } from "~/components/ui/select";
 import { ArrowLeft, Plus, Trophy, X, Check, ChevronDown, ChevronRight, Calendar, TrendingUp, Trash2 } from "lucide-react";
 import { getAllBracketTemplates, getBracketTemplate, getOrderedRoundsFromMatches, buildNCAA68SlotMap, ALL_16_SEEDS, type BracketRegion } from "~/lib/bracket-templates";
+import { computeGroupStandings } from "~/models/group-stage-match";
 import {
   Table,
   TableBody,
@@ -322,6 +323,29 @@ export default function EventBracket({
             </div>
           )}
 
+          {/* Recalculate Floors - Fix guaranteed minimum points for still-alive participants.
+              Hidden once every match is complete — at that point all placements are final
+              and "finalize bracket" should be used instead. */}
+          {matches.length > 0 && !matches.every((m) => m.isComplete) && (
+            <Card>
+              <CardHeader>
+                <CardTitle>Recalculate Floors</CardTitle>
+                <CardDescription>
+                  Recompute guaranteed-minimum placements for participants still in the bracket.
+                  Use this after scoring rule changes or when floor points look wrong.
+                </CardDescription>
+              </CardHeader>
+              <CardContent>
+                <Form method="post">
+                  <input type="hidden" name="intent" value="recalculate-floors" />
+                  <Button type="submit" variant="outline">
+                    Recalculate Floors
+                  </Button>
+                </Form>
+              </CardContent>
+            </Card>
+          )}
+
           {/* Reprocess Eliminations - For existing brackets (non-group-stage) */}
           {matches.length > 0 && !isGroupStageEvent && (
             <Card>
@@ -685,55 +709,189 @@ export default function EventBracket({
 
               {/* Group Cards */}
               <div className="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 lg:grid-cols-3 xl:grid-cols-4 gap-4">
-                {tournamentGroups.map((group) => (
-                  <Card key={group.id}>
-                    <CardHeader className="py-3 px-4">
-                      <CardTitle className="text-base">Group {group.groupName}</CardTitle>
-                    </CardHeader>
-                    <CardContent className="px-4 pb-4 space-y-2">
-                      {(group.members || []).map((member) => (
-                        <div
-                          key={member.id}
-                          className={`flex items-center justify-between gap-2 p-2 rounded-md border ${
-                            member.eliminated
-                              ? "bg-destructive/10 border-destructive/20"
-                              : "bg-background border-border"
-                          }`}
-                        >
-                          <span
-                            className={`text-sm truncate ${
-                              member.eliminated ? "line-through text-muted-foreground" : ""
-                            }`}
-                          >
-                            {member.participant?.name || "Unknown"}
-                          </span>
-                          <Form method="post" className="shrink-0">
-                            <input type="hidden" name="intent" value="toggle-elimination" />
-                            <input type="hidden" name="memberId" value={member.id} />
-                            <Button
-                              type="submit"
-                              size="sm"
-                              variant={member.eliminated ? "outline" : "destructive"}
-                              className="h-7 text-xs"
+                {tournamentGroups.map((group) => {
+                  const members = group.members || [];
+                  const groupMatches = group.groupMatches || [];
+                  const standings = computeGroupStandings(
+                    members
+                      .filter((m) => m.participant !== null && m.participant !== undefined)
+                      .map((m) => ({
+                        participantId: m.participant?.id ?? "",
+                        participantName: m.participant?.name ?? "",
+                      })),
+                    groupMatches.map((m) => ({
+                      participant1Id: m.participant1Id,
+                      participant2Id: m.participant2Id,
+                      participant1Score: m.participant1Score,
+                      participant2Score: m.participant2Score,
+                      isComplete: m.isComplete,
+                    }))
+                  );
+
+                  return (
+                    <Card key={group.id}>
+                      <CardHeader className="py-3 px-4">
+                        <CardTitle className="text-base">Group {group.groupName}</CardTitle>
+                      </CardHeader>
+                      <CardContent className="px-4 pb-4 space-y-3">
+                        {/* Standings table */}
+                        {standings.length > 0 && (
+                          <div className="overflow-x-auto">
+                            <table className="w-full text-xs">
+                              <thead>
+                                <tr className="border-b text-muted-foreground">
+                                  <th className="text-left pb-1 font-medium">Team</th>
+                                  <th className="text-center pb-1 font-medium w-6">P</th>
+                                  <th className="text-center pb-1 font-medium w-6">W</th>
+                                  <th className="text-center pb-1 font-medium w-6">D</th>
+                                  <th className="text-center pb-1 font-medium w-6">L</th>
+                                  <th className="text-center pb-1 font-medium w-8">GD</th>
+                                  <th className="text-center pb-1 font-medium w-7">Pts</th>
+                                </tr>
+                              </thead>
+                              <tbody>
+                                {standings.map((row, idx) => {
+                                  const member = members.find((m) => m.participant?.id === row.participantId);
+                                  const isTop2 = idx < 2;
+                                  return (
+                                    <tr
+                                      key={row.participantId}
+                                      className={`border-b last:border-0 ${
+                                        member?.eliminated
+                                          ? "text-muted-foreground line-through"
+                                          : isTop2
+                                          ? "text-green-600 dark:text-green-400 font-medium"
+                                          : ""
+                                      }`}
+                                    >
+                                      <td className="py-0.5 truncate max-w-[80px]">{row.participantName}</td>
+                                      <td className="text-center">{row.played}</td>
+                                      <td className="text-center">{row.wins}</td>
+                                      <td className="text-center">{row.draws}</td>
+                                      <td className="text-center">{row.losses}</td>
+                                      <td className="text-center">{row.gd > 0 ? `+${row.gd}` : row.gd}</td>
+                                      <td className="text-center font-semibold">{row.points}</td>
+                                    </tr>
+                                  );
+                                })}
+                              </tbody>
+                            </table>
+                          </div>
+                        )}
+
+                        {/* Elimination toggles */}
+                        <div className="space-y-1.5">
+                          {members.map((member) => (
+                            <div
+                              key={member.id}
+                              className={`flex items-center justify-between gap-2 p-2 rounded-md border ${
+                                member.eliminated
+                                  ? "bg-destructive/10 border-destructive/20"
+                                  : "bg-background border-border"
+                              }`}
                             >
-                              {member.eliminated ? (
-                                <>
-                                  <Check className="h-3 w-3 mr-1" />
-                                  Reinstate
-                                </>
-                              ) : (
-                                <>
-                                  <X className="h-3 w-3 mr-1" />
-                                  Eliminate
-                                </>
-                              )}
-                            </Button>
-                          </Form>
+                              <span
+                                className={`text-sm truncate ${
+                                  member.eliminated ? "line-through text-muted-foreground" : ""
+                                }`}
+                              >
+                                {member.participant?.name || "Unknown"}
+                              </span>
+                              <Form method="post" className="shrink-0">
+                                <input type="hidden" name="intent" value="toggle-elimination" />
+                                <input type="hidden" name="memberId" value={member.id} />
+                                <Button
+                                  type="submit"
+                                  size="sm"
+                                  variant={member.eliminated ? "outline" : "destructive"}
+                                  className="h-7 text-xs"
+                                >
+                                  {member.eliminated ? (
+                                    <>
+                                      <Check className="h-3 w-3 mr-1" />
+                                      Reinstate
+                                    </>
+                                  ) : (
+                                    <>
+                                      <X className="h-3 w-3 mr-1" />
+                                      Eliminate
+                                    </>
+                                  )}
+                                </Button>
+                              </Form>
+                            </div>
+                          ))}
                         </div>
-                      ))}
-                    </CardContent>
-                  </Card>
-                ))}
+
+                        {/* Match score entry */}
+                        {groupMatches.length > 0 && (
+                          <div className="space-y-1.5 pt-1 border-t">
+                            <p className="text-xs font-medium text-muted-foreground">Matches</p>
+                            {groupMatches.map((match) => (
+                              <div key={match.id} className="text-xs space-y-1">
+                                {/* Schedule row */}
+                                <Form method="post" className="flex items-center gap-1">
+                                  <input type="hidden" name="intent" value="update-group-match-schedule" />
+                                  <input type="hidden" name="matchId" value={match.id} />
+                                  <Calendar className="h-3 w-3 text-muted-foreground shrink-0" />
+                                  <Input
+                                    type="datetime-local"
+                                    name="scheduledAt"
+                                    defaultValue={
+                                      match.scheduledAt
+                                        ? new Date(match.scheduledAt).toISOString().slice(0, 16)
+                                        : ""
+                                    }
+                                    className="h-6 text-xs px-1 py-0"
+                                  />
+                                  <Button type="submit" size="sm" variant="ghost" className="h-6 px-1.5 text-xs">
+                                    Save
+                                  </Button>
+                                </Form>
+                                {/* Score row */}
+                                <Form method="post" className="flex items-center gap-1">
+                                  <input type="hidden" name="intent" value="update-group-match" />
+                                  <input type="hidden" name="matchId" value={match.id} />
+                                  <span className="truncate max-w-[70px]">
+                                    {match.participant1?.name ?? "?"}
+                                  </span>
+                                  <Input
+                                    type="number"
+                                    name="participant1Score"
+                                    min={0}
+                                    defaultValue={match.participant1Score ?? ""}
+                                    className={`h-6 w-10 text-center text-xs px-1 py-0 ${match.isComplete ? "bg-muted" : ""}`}
+                                    disabled={match.isComplete}
+                                  />
+                                  <span className="text-muted-foreground">–</span>
+                                  <Input
+                                    type="number"
+                                    name="participant2Score"
+                                    min={0}
+                                    defaultValue={match.participant2Score ?? ""}
+                                    className={`h-6 w-10 text-center text-xs px-1 py-0 ${match.isComplete ? "bg-muted" : ""}`}
+                                    disabled={match.isComplete}
+                                  />
+                                  <span className="truncate max-w-[70px] text-right">
+                                    {match.participant2?.name ?? "?"}
+                                  </span>
+                                  {!match.isComplete && (
+                                    <Button type="submit" size="sm" variant="default" className="h-6 px-1.5 text-xs shrink-0">
+                                      Save
+                                    </Button>
+                                  )}
+                                  {match.isComplete && (
+                                    <Badge variant="secondary" className="h-5 text-xs px-1 shrink-0">FT</Badge>
+                                  )}
+                                </Form>
+                              </div>
+                            ))}
+                          </div>
+                        )}
+                      </CardContent>
+                    </Card>
+                  );
+                })}
               </div>
 
               {/* Knockout Assignment Section */}

app/routes/admin.sports-seasons.$id.simulate.tsx

@@ -17,25 +17,13 @@ import { batchUpsertParticipantEVs } from "~/models/participant-expected-value";
 import { batchUpsertParticipantEvSnapshots } from "~/models/ev-snapshot";
 import { findParticipantsBySportsSeasonId } from "~/models/participant";
 import { getSimulator, type SimulatorType } from "~/services/simulations/registry";
-import { calculateEV, type ScoringRules } from "~/services/ev-calculator";
+import { calculateEV } from "~/services/ev-calculator";
+import { DEFAULT_SCORING_RULES } from "~/lib/scoring-types";
 import { recalculateStandings } from "~/models/scoring-calculator";
 import { database } from "~/database/context";
 import * as schema from "~/database/schema";
 import { eq } from "drizzle-orm";
 
-// Default scoring rules — matches the season table defaults.
-// Per-league EV is recalculated from probabilities using league-specific rules in standings.
-const DEFAULT_SCORING_RULES: ScoringRules = {
-  pointsFor1st: 100,
-  pointsFor2nd: 70,
-  pointsFor3rd: 45,
-  pointsFor4th: 45,
-  pointsFor5th: 20,
-  pointsFor6th: 20,
-  pointsFor7th: 20,
-  pointsFor8th: 20,
-};
-
 export async function action({ params }: Route.ActionArgs) {
   const sportsSeasonId = params.id;
 

app/routes/leagues/$leagueId.server.ts

@@ -14,6 +14,7 @@ import {
 import { findCurrentSeasonWithSports } from "~/models/season";
 import { getSeasonStandings } from "~/models/standings";
 import { getUpcomingEventsForDraftedParticipants } from "~/models/scoring-event";
+import { getUpcomingGroupStageMatchesForParticipants } from "~/models/group-stage-match";
 import { getDraftedParticipantsBySportsSeason } from "~/models/draft-pick";
 import type { Route } from "./+types/$leagueId";
 
@@ -114,6 +115,9 @@ export async function loader(args: Route.LoaderArgs) {
     ? await getDraftedParticipantsBySportsSeason(myTeam.id, season.id)
     : new Map<string, Array<{ id: string; name: string }>>();
 
+  const dateFrom = new Date(dateFromStr + "T00:00:00.000Z");
+  const dateTo = new Date(dateToStr + "T23:59:59.999Z");
+
   const sportsSeasons = await Promise.all(
     rawSportsSeasons.map(async (ss) => {
       const draftedParticipants = participantsBySportsSeason.get(ss.id) ?? [];
@@ -127,6 +131,33 @@ export async function loader(args: Route.LoaderArgs) {
               dateToStr
             )
           : [];
+
+      // For group-stage bracket sports, also include scheduled group matches
+      if (ss.scoringPattern === "playoff_bracket" && draftedParticipants.length > 0) {
+        const draftedIds = draftedParticipants.map((p) => p.id);
+        const groupMatches = await getUpcomingGroupStageMatchesForParticipants(
+          ss.id,
+          draftedIds,
+          dateFrom,
+          dateTo
+        );
+        for (const gm of groupMatches) {
+          const relevant = draftedParticipants.filter(
+            (p) => p.id === gm.participant1.id || p.id === gm.participant2.id
+          );
+          upcomingParticipantEvents.push({
+            id: gm.matchId,
+            name: `${gm.participant1.name} vs ${gm.participant2.name}`,
+            eventDate: gm.scheduledAt ? gm.scheduledAt.split("T")[0] : null,
+            earliestGameTime: gm.scheduledAt || null,
+            matchLabel: `Group ${gm.groupName} · MD${gm.matchday}`,
+            eventType: "group_match",
+            sportsSeasonId: ss.id,
+            relevantParticipants: relevant,
+          });
+        }
+      }
+
       return {
         id: ss.id,
         name: ss.name,

app/routes/leagues/$leagueId.sports-seasons.$sportsSeasonId.server.ts

@@ -18,6 +18,11 @@ import {
 import { getRegularSeasonStandings } from "~/models/regular-season-standings";
 import { getAllParticipantEVsForSeason } from "~/models/participant-expected-value";
 import { getBracketTemplate, getOrderedRoundsFromMatches } from "~/lib/bracket-templates";
+import {
+  findMatchesByGroupIds,
+  computeGroupStandings,
+} from "~/models/group-stage-match";
+import { findGroupsByEventId } from "~/models/tournament-group";
 import type { PlayoffMatch } from "~/models/playoff-match";
 import { database } from "~/database/context";
 import * as schema from "~/database/schema";
@@ -152,6 +157,15 @@ export async function loader(args: Route.LoaderArgs) {
   type QPStanding = Awaited<ReturnType<typeof getQPStandings>>[number];
   let qpStandings: QPStanding[] = [];
 
+  // Group standings for group-stage events (e.g. FIFA World Cup)
+  type RawGroupMatch = Awaited<ReturnType<typeof findMatchesByGroupIds>> extends Map<string, Array<infer T>> ? T : never;
+  type GroupStandingData = {
+    groupName: string;
+    standings: ReturnType<typeof computeGroupStandings>;
+    matches: Array<Omit<RawGroupMatch, "scheduledAt"> & { scheduledAt: string | null }>;
+  };
+  let groupStandings: GroupStandingData[] = [];
+
   if (scoringPattern === "playoff_bracket") {
     // Fetch playoff matches via scoring events
     const events = await db.query.scoringEvents.findMany({
@@ -176,6 +190,42 @@ export async function loader(args: Route.LoaderArgs) {
       templateId = events.find((e) => e.bracketTemplateId)?.bracketTemplateId ?? undefined;
       const template = templateId ? getBracketTemplate(templateId) : undefined;
       playoffRounds = getOrderedRoundsFromMatches(matches, template);
+
+      // Load group stage standings if this event uses a group-stage template
+      if (template?.groupStage) {
+        const groupStageEventId = events.find((e) => e.bracketTemplateId === templateId)?.id;
+        if (groupStageEventId) {
+          const groups = await findGroupsByEventId(groupStageEventId);
+          // Single batched query for all groups instead of N round-trips
+          const matchesByGroupId = await findMatchesByGroupIds(groups.map((g) => g.id));
+          groupStandings = groups.map((group) => {
+            const groupMatches = matchesByGroupId.get(group.id) ?? [];
+            const members = (group.members ?? [])
+              .filter((m) => m.participant !== null && m.participant !== undefined)
+              .map((m) => ({
+                participantId: m.participant?.id ?? "",
+                participantName: m.participant?.name ?? "",
+              }));
+            return {
+              groupName: group.groupName,
+              standings: computeGroupStandings(
+                members,
+                groupMatches.map((m) => ({
+                  participant1Id: m.participant1Id,
+                  participant2Id: m.participant2Id,
+                  participant1Score: m.participant1Score,
+                  participant2Score: m.participant2Score,
+                  isComplete: m.isComplete,
+                }))
+              ),
+              matches: groupMatches.map((m) => ({
+                ...m,
+                scheduledAt: m.scheduledAt ? m.scheduledAt.toISOString() : null,
+              })),
+            };
+          });
+        }
+      }
     }
 
     // Fetch group-stage losers and all participant results for bracket scoring
@@ -288,5 +338,6 @@ export async function loader(args: Route.LoaderArgs) {
     seasonIsFinalized,
     regularSeasonStandings,
     participantEvs,
+    groupStandings,
   };
 }

app/routes/leagues/$leagueId.sports-seasons.$sportsSeasonId.tsx

@@ -5,6 +5,7 @@ import { loader } from "./$leagueId.sports-seasons.$sportsSeasonId.server";
 import { SportSeasonDisplay } from "~/components/scoring/SportSeasonDisplay";
 import { EventSchedule } from "~/components/sport-season/EventSchedule";
 import { RegularSeasonStandings } from "~/components/sport-season/RegularSeasonStandings";
+import { GroupStageStandings } from "~/components/sport-season/GroupStageStandings";
 import { Button } from "~/components/ui/button";
 import { Badge } from "~/components/ui/badge";
 import { ArrowLeft, CheckCircle2, Clock, Zap } from "lucide-react";
@@ -65,6 +66,7 @@ export default function SportSeasonDetail({
     seasonIsFinalized,
     regularSeasonStandings,
     participantEvs,
+    groupStandings,
   } = loaderData;
 
   const hasBracket = playoffMatches && playoffMatches.length > 0;
@@ -140,6 +142,13 @@ export default function SportSeasonDetail({
           </div>
         )}
 
+      {/* Group stage standings — shown for FIFA-style tournaments before/during group phase */}
+      {groupStandings.length > 0 && (
+        <div className="mb-6">
+          <GroupStageStandings groups={groupStandings} ownershipMap={ownershipMap} showEmpty={false} />
+        </div>
+      )}
+
       {/* Hide bracket display when standings exist but no bracket matches have been set yet */}
       {!(scoringPattern === "playoff_bracket" && hasStandings && !hasBracket) && <SportSeasonDisplay
         scoringPattern={scoringPattern as "playoff_bracket" | "season_standings" | "qualifying_points"}

app/routes/leagues/$leagueId.tsx

@@ -206,7 +206,7 @@ export default function LeagueHome({ loaderData }: Route.ComponentProps) {
                           />
                         </div>
                         <div className="text-sm font-medium tabular-nums">
-                          {standing ? standing.totalPoints : 0} pts
+                          {standing ? (standing.actualPoints ?? standing.totalPoints) : 0} pts
                         </div>
                       </div>
                     );

app/services/simulations/__tests__/world-cup-simulator.test.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,268 @@
+import { describe, it, expect, vi, beforeEach } from "vitest";
+import { simGroupMatch, WorldCupSimulator } from "../world-cup-simulator";
+
+// ─── Pure math: simGroupMatch ─────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+describe("simGroupMatch", () => {
+  it("returns win, draw, or loss", () => {
+    const results = new Set<string>();
+    for (let i = 0; i < 300; i++) {
+      results.add(simGroupMatch(1800, 1600));
+    }
+    // All three outcomes should appear in 300 trials
+    expect(results.has("win")).toBe(true);
+    expect(results.has("draw")).toBe(true);
+    expect(results.has("loss")).toBe(true);
+  });
+
+  it("equal teams draw ≈28% of the time", () => {
+    let draws = 0;
+    const N = 5_000;
+    for (let i = 0; i < N; i++) {
+      if (simGroupMatch(1500, 1500) === "draw") draws++;
+    }
+    const drawRate = draws / N;
+    // BASE_DRAW_RATE = 0.28 at eloDiff=0; accept ±5% from sampling noise at N=5k
+    expect(drawRate).toBeGreaterThan(0.23);
+    expect(drawRate).toBeLessThan(0.33);
+  });
+
+  it("draw rate decays with large Elo gap", () => {
+    let draws = 0;
+    const N = 5_000;
+    for (let i = 0; i < N; i++) {
+      if (simGroupMatch(2000, 1400) === "draw") draws++;
+    }
+    const drawRate = draws / N;
+    // eloDiff = 600 → pDraw ≈ 0.28 * exp(-1.2) ≈ 0.084; accept ±5%
+    expect(drawRate).toBeLessThan(0.15);
+  });
+
+  it("strong favorite wins more often than underdog", () => {
+    let wins = 0;
+    let losses = 0;
+    const N = 5_000;
+    for (let i = 0; i < N; i++) {
+      const r = simGroupMatch(1900, 1600);
+      if (r === "win") wins++;
+      if (r === "loss") losses++;
+    }
+    expect(wins).toBeGreaterThan(losses);
+  });
+
+  it("results sum to 1.0 (no probability mass lost)", () => {
+    let wins = 0, draws = 0, losses = 0;
+    const N = 10_000;
+    for (let i = 0; i < N; i++) {
+      const r = simGroupMatch(1700, 1700);
+      if (r === "win") wins++;
+      else if (r === "draw") draws++;
+      else losses++;
+    }
+    expect(wins + draws + losses).toBe(N);
+  });
+});
+
+// ─── WorldCupSimulator (with mocked DB) ───────────────────────────────────────
+
+// Build 48 mock participants (ids p0..p47)
+function makeParticipants(count = 48) {
+  return Array.from({ length: count }, (_, i) => ({
+    id: `p${i}`,
+    name: `Team${i}`,
+    sportsSeasonId: "season-1",
+  }));
+}
+
+vi.mock("~/database/context", () => ({
+  database: vi.fn(),
+}));
+
+import { database } from "~/database/context";
+
+const mockDb = {
+  query: {
+    participants: { findMany: vi.fn() },
+    scoringEvents: { findFirst: vi.fn() },
+    tournamentGroups: { findMany: vi.fn() },
+    playoffMatches: { findMany: vi.fn() },
+  },
+  select: vi.fn().mockReturnThis(),
+  from: vi.fn().mockReturnThis(),
+  where: vi.fn().mockResolvedValue([]),
+};
+
+beforeEach(() => {
+  vi.mocked(database).mockReturnValue(mockDb as never);
+  mockDb.query.participants.findMany.mockReset();
+  mockDb.query.scoringEvents.findFirst.mockReset();
+  mockDb.query.tournamentGroups.findMany.mockReset();
+  mockDb.query.playoffMatches.findMany.mockReset();
+  mockDb.select.mockReturnValue(mockDb);
+  mockDb.from.mockReturnValue(mockDb);
+  mockDb.where.mockResolvedValue([]);
+});
+
+describe("WorldCupSimulator", () => {
+  it("throws when no participants are found", async () => {
+    mockDb.query.participants.findMany.mockResolvedValue([]);
+    mockDb.query.scoringEvents.findFirst.mockResolvedValue(null);
+    mockDb.query.tournamentGroups.findMany.mockResolvedValue([]);
+    mockDb.query.playoffMatches.findMany.mockResolvedValue([]);
+
+    const sim = new WorldCupSimulator(500);
+    await expect(sim.simulate("season-1")).rejects.toThrow("No participants found");
+  });
+
+  it("returns one result per participant", async () => {
+    const participants = makeParticipants(48);
+    mockDb.query.participants.findMany.mockResolvedValue(participants);
+    mockDb.query.scoringEvents.findFirst.mockResolvedValue(null);
+    mockDb.query.tournamentGroups.findMany.mockResolvedValue([]);
+    mockDb.query.playoffMatches.findMany.mockResolvedValue([]);
+
+    const sim = new WorldCupSimulator(500);
+    const results = await sim.simulate("season-1");
+    expect(results).toHaveLength(48);
+    const ids = new Set(results.map((r) => r.participantId));
+    for (const p of participants) {
+      expect(ids.has(p.id)).toBe(true);
+    }
+  });
+
+  it("column sums for champion, runner-up, 3rd, 4th are each ≈1.0", async () => {
+    const participants = makeParticipants(48);
+    mockDb.query.participants.findMany.mockResolvedValue(participants);
+    mockDb.query.scoringEvents.findFirst.mockResolvedValue(null);
+    mockDb.query.tournamentGroups.findMany.mockResolvedValue([]);
+    mockDb.query.playoffMatches.findMany.mockResolvedValue([]);
+
+    const sim = new WorldCupSimulator(500);
+    const results = await sim.simulate("season-1");
+
+    const sumFirst  = results.reduce((s, r) => s + r.probabilities.probFirst,  0);
+    const sumSecond = results.reduce((s, r) => s + r.probabilities.probSecond, 0);
+    const sumThird  = results.reduce((s, r) => s + r.probabilities.probThird,  0);
+    const sumFourth = results.reduce((s, r) => s + r.probabilities.probFourth, 0);
+
+    expect(sumFirst).toBeCloseTo(1.0, 2);
+    expect(sumSecond).toBeCloseTo(1.0, 2);
+    expect(sumThird).toBeCloseTo(1.0, 2);
+    expect(sumFourth).toBeCloseTo(1.0, 2);
+  });
+
+  it("probabilities are all non-negative", async () => {
+    const participants = makeParticipants(48);
+    mockDb.query.participants.findMany.mockResolvedValue(participants);
+    mockDb.query.scoringEvents.findFirst.mockResolvedValue(null);
+    mockDb.query.tournamentGroups.findMany.mockResolvedValue([]);
+    mockDb.query.playoffMatches.findMany.mockResolvedValue([]);
+
+    const sim = new WorldCupSimulator(500);
+    const results = await sim.simulate("season-1");
+
+    for (const r of results) {
+      const { probFirst, probSecond, probThird, probFourth, probFifth } = r.probabilities;
+      expect(probFirst).toBeGreaterThanOrEqual(0);
+      expect(probSecond).toBeGreaterThanOrEqual(0);
+      expect(probThird).toBeGreaterThanOrEqual(0);
+      expect(probFourth).toBeGreaterThanOrEqual(0);
+      expect(probFifth).toBeGreaterThanOrEqual(0);
+    }
+  });
+
+  it("SF losers land in 3rd or 4th, never 1st or 2nd", async () => {
+    // Set up 8 participants (small bracket, 2 groups of 4)
+    const participants = makeParticipants(8);
+    mockDb.query.participants.findMany.mockResolvedValue(participants);
+    mockDb.query.scoringEvents.findFirst.mockResolvedValue(null);
+    mockDb.query.tournamentGroups.findMany.mockResolvedValue([]);
+    mockDb.query.playoffMatches.findMany.mockResolvedValue([]);
+
+    const sim = new WorldCupSimulator(500);
+    const results = await sim.simulate("season-1");
+
+    // probFirst + probSecond + probThird + probFourth should cover all probability mass
+    // No team should have probThird or probFourth < 0
+    for (const r of results) {
+      expect(r.probabilities.probFirst).toBeGreaterThanOrEqual(0);
+      expect(r.probabilities.probThird).toBeGreaterThanOrEqual(0);
+      expect(r.probabilities.probFourth).toBeGreaterThanOrEqual(0);
+      // A champion should have 0 chance at 3rd/4th AND vice versa
+      // (not guaranteed in aggregate but probFirst + probThird can't both be 1)
+      expect(r.probabilities.probFirst + r.probabilities.probThird).toBeLessThanOrEqual(1.01);
+    }
+  });
+
+  it("a team with pre-completed group stage result is fixed in simulation", async () => {
+    const participants = makeParticipants(48);
+    mockDb.query.participants.findMany.mockResolvedValue(participants);
+    mockDb.query.scoringEvents.findFirst.mockResolvedValue({ id: "event-1" });
+
+    // One group fully complete: p0 wins everything, p3 loses everything
+    const group = {
+      id: "group-a",
+      groupName: "A",
+      scoringEventId: "event-1",
+      members: [
+        { participantId: "p0" }, { participantId: "p1" },
+        { participantId: "p2" }, { participantId: "p3" },
+      ],
+      matches: [
+        { participant1Id: "p0", participant2Id: "p1", participant1Score: 3, participant2Score: 0, isComplete: true, matchday: 1 },
+        { participant1Id: "p2", participant2Id: "p3", participant1Score: 2, participant2Score: 0, isComplete: true, matchday: 1 },
+        { participant1Id: "p0", participant2Id: "p2", participant1Score: 2, participant2Score: 0, isComplete: true, matchday: 2 },
+        { participant1Id: "p1", participant2Id: "p3", participant1Score: 1, participant2Score: 0, isComplete: true, matchday: 2 },
+        { participant1Id: "p0", participant2Id: "p3", participant1Score: 1, participant2Score: 0, isComplete: true, matchday: 3 },
+        { participant1Id: "p1", participant2Id: "p2", participant1Score: 1, participant2Score: 1, isComplete: true, matchday: 3 },
+      ],
+    };
+
+    // Remaining 44 participants in 11 synthetic groups
+    const remainingGroups = Array.from({ length: 11 }, (_, gi) => ({
+      id: `group-${gi + 2}`,
+      groupName: String.fromCharCode(66 + gi),
+      scoringEventId: "event-1",
+      members: [
+        { participantId: `p${(gi + 1) * 4 + 0}` },
+        { participantId: `p${(gi + 1) * 4 + 1}` },
+        { participantId: `p${(gi + 1) * 4 + 2}` },
+        { participantId: `p${(gi + 1) * 4 + 3}` },
+      ],
+      matches: [],
+    }));
+
+    mockDb.query.tournamentGroups.findMany.mockResolvedValue([group, ...remainingGroups]);
+    mockDb.query.playoffMatches.findMany.mockResolvedValue([]);
+
+    const sim = new WorldCupSimulator(500);
+    const results = await sim.simulate("season-1");
+
+    const p3Result = results.find((r) => r.participantId === "p3");
+    expect(p3Result).toBeDefined();
+    // p3 lost all 3 group games (0 pts) — always last in group, never advances
+    // → probFirst = probSecond = probThird = probFourth = 0
+    expect(p3Result?.probabilities.probFirst).toBe(0);
+    expect(p3Result?.probabilities.probSecond).toBe(0);
+    expect(p3Result?.probabilities.probThird).toBe(0);
+    expect(p3Result?.probabilities.probFourth).toBe(0);
+  });
+
+  it("probFifth through probEighth are equal for each participant (QF losers split evenly)", async () => {
+    const participants = makeParticipants(48);
+    mockDb.query.participants.findMany.mockResolvedValue(participants);
+    mockDb.query.scoringEvents.findFirst.mockResolvedValue(null);
+    mockDb.query.tournamentGroups.findMany.mockResolvedValue([]);
+    mockDb.query.playoffMatches.findMany.mockResolvedValue([]);
+
+    const sim = new WorldCupSimulator(500);
+    const results = await sim.simulate("season-1");
+
+    for (const r of results) {
+      const { probFifth, probSixth, probSeventh, probEighth } = r.probabilities;
+      expect(probFifth).toBeCloseTo(probSixth,   10);
+      expect(probSixth).toBeCloseTo(probSeventh,  10);
+      expect(probSeventh).toBeCloseTo(probEighth, 10);
+    }
+  });
+});

app/services/simulations/registry.ts

@@ -20,6 +20,7 @@ import { SnookerSimulator } from "./snooker-simulator";
 import { TennisSimulator } from "./tennis-simulator";
 import { MLBSimulator } from "./mlb-simulator";
 import { WNBASimulator } from "./wnba-simulator";
+import { WorldCupSimulator } from "./world-cup-simulator";
 
 export const SIMULATOR_TYPES = [
   "f1_standings",
@@ -36,6 +37,7 @@ export const SIMULATOR_TYPES = [
   "tennis_qualifying_points",
   "mlb_bracket",
   "wnba_bracket",
+  "world_cup",
 ] as const;
 
 export type SimulatorType = typeof SIMULATOR_TYPES[number];
@@ -116,6 +118,10 @@ const REGISTRY: Record<SimulatorType, { info: SimulatorInfo; create: () => Simul
     info: { name: "WNBA Playoff Monte Carlo", description: "Projects WNBA regular season seedings and simulates full playoff bracket (R1 best-of-3, Semis best-of-5, Finals best-of-7) using SRS-derived Elo ratings. SRS values sourced from basketball-reference.com." },
     create: () => new WNBASimulator(),
   },
+  world_cup: {
+    info: { name: "FIFA World Cup 2026 Monte Carlo", description: "Simulates the full 48-team World Cup: round-robin group stage (12 groups), best-8 third-place selection, R32→R16→QF→SF→3rd place game→Final. Uses blended Elo + futures odds." },
+    create: () => new WorldCupSimulator(),
+  },
 };
 
 export function getSimulator(simulatorType: SimulatorType): Simulator {

app/services/simulations/world-cup-simulator.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,609 @@
+/**
+ * FIFA World Cup Simulator (2026+ 48-team format)
+ *
+ * Monte Carlo simulation covering both the group stage and knockout bracket.
+ *
+ * Algorithm:
+ *   1. Load participants, futures odds, and bracket/group data from DB
+ *   2. Build per-team Elo: from futures odds if available (blended 70/30 Elo+odds),
+ *      otherwise from hardcoded 2026 national team Elo ratings, fallback 1500.
+ *   3. For each of NUM_SIMULATIONS iterations:
+ *      a. GROUP STAGE (12 groups × 6 matches each = 72 matches)
+ *         - Each match: compute P(win)/P(draw)/P(loss) from Elo difference
+ *         - Track pts / GD / GF per team; sort to determine group positions
+ *         - Group winner (pos 1) and runner-up (pos 2) always advance
+ *         - 3rd-place teams ranked across all 12 groups; top 8 also advance
+ *      b. KNOCKOUT (R32 → R16 → QF → SF)
+ *         - Standard single-elimination using Elo win probabilities
+ *         - Completed knockout matches use actual results
+ *      c. THIRD PLACE GAME
+ *         - SF loser 1 vs SF loser 2; winner = 3rd, loser = 4th
+ *      d. FINAL
+ *         - SF winner 1 vs SF winner 2; winner = 1st, loser = 2nd
+ *   4. Accumulate integer placement counts; convert to probabilities.
+ *      Placement buckets → SimulationProbabilities mapping:
+ *        probFirst   = P(champion)
+ *        probSecond  = P(runner-up)
+ *        probThird   = P(3rd place game winner)
+ *        probFourth  = P(3rd place game loser)
+ *        probFifth–probEighth = P(QF elimination) / 4
+ *        R32/R16 losers → 0 (scoringStartsAtRound = "Quarterfinals")
+ *
+ * Group stage W/D/L probabilities:
+ *   pDraw = 0.28 × exp(−0.002 × |eloDiff|)   (≈28% when equal, decreases with skill gap)
+ *   pWin  = (1 − pDraw) × eloWinProb(eloA, eloB)
+ *   pLoss = 1 − pWin − pDraw
+ */
+
+import { database } from "~/database/context";
+import { eq, and } from "drizzle-orm";
+import * as schema from "~/database/schema";
+import { convertFuturesToElo, eloWinProbability } from "~/services/probability-engine";
+import { logger } from "~/lib/logger";
+import type { Simulator, SimulationResult, SimulationProbabilities } from "./types";
+
+// ─── Name normalisation (same logic as elo-ratings bulk-import fuzzy match) ──
+
+function normalizeTeamName(name: string): string {
+  return name.toLowerCase().replace(/[^a-z0-9\s]/g, "").replace(/\s+/g, " ").trim();
+}
+
+// ─── Parameters ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+const NUM_SIMULATIONS = 50_000;
+const ELO_WEIGHT = 0.7;
+const ODDS_WEIGHT = 1 - ELO_WEIGHT;
+
+/** Base draw rate when teams are evenly matched. Decays with Elo difference. */
+const BASE_DRAW_RATE = 0.28;
+const DRAW_DECAY = 0.002;
+
+// ─── National team Elo ratings (eloratings.net, pre-2026 World Cup) ──────────
+// These are used when no futures odds are stored for a team.
+// Update before the tournament starts.
+
+const NATIONAL_TEAM_ELO: Record<string, number> = {
+  "france": 2083,
+  "england": 2047,
+  "brazil": 2038,
+  "spain": 2031,
+  "belgium": 2003,
+  "argentina": 1997,
+  "portugal": 1993,
+  "netherlands": 1988,
+  "germany": 1978,
+  "italy": 1966,
+  "croatia": 1961,
+  "uruguay": 1955,
+  "colombia": 1950,
+  "mexico": 1945,
+  "usa": 1935,
+  "united states": 1935,
+  "senegal": 1930,
+  "denmark": 1928,
+  "switzerland": 1925,
+  "austria": 1918,
+  "morocco": 1915,
+  "japan": 1912,
+  "south korea": 1905,
+  "ecuador": 1900,
+  "poland": 1898,
+  "australia": 1893,
+  "nigeria": 1888,
+  "iran": 1883,
+  "cameroon": 1878,
+  "ghana": 1875,
+  "canada": 1870,
+  "peru": 1865,
+  "chile": 1862,
+  "venezuela": 1858,
+  "costa rica": 1853,
+  "cote d'ivoire": 1850,
+  "ivory coast": 1850,
+  "egypt": 1848,
+  "hungary": 1845,
+  "turkey": 1842,
+  "ukraine": 1838,
+  "serbia": 1835,
+  "czech republic": 1830,
+  "romania": 1825,
+  "slovakia": 1820,
+  "new zealand": 1790,
+  "saudi arabia": 1785,
+  "qatar": 1780,
+  "honduras": 1778,
+  "panama": 1775,
+  "el salvador": 1770,
+  "guatemala": 1765,
+  "cuba": 1760,
+};
+
+/**
+ * Look up a national team's Elo rating using fuzzy name matching.
+ * Priority:
+ *   1. Exact normalized match
+ *   2. Substring containment (either direction)
+ *   3. Word-overlap (≥50% shared significant words)
+ * Logs a warning when no match is found so mismatches are visible in server logs.
+ */
+function getTeamElo(name: string, fallback = 1500): number {
+  const normalized = normalizeTeamName(name);
+  const entries = Object.entries(NATIONAL_TEAM_ELO);
+
+  // 1. Exact match
+  const exact = entries.find(([k]) => k === normalized);
+  if (exact) return exact[1];
+
+  // 2. Substring containment (handles "Ivory Coast" ↔ "Cote d'Ivoire" aliases already in map,
+  //    and things like "United States" matching "usa")
+  const contains = entries.find(([k]) => k.includes(normalized) || normalized.includes(k));
+  if (contains) return contains[1];
+
+  // 3. Word-overlap (≥50% shared words longer than 2 chars)
+  const inputWords = normalized.split(" ").filter((w) => w.length > 2);
+  if (inputWords.length > 0) {
+    const overlap = entries.find(([k]) => {
+      const kWords = k.split(" ").filter((w) => w.length > 2);
+      const shared = inputWords.filter((w) => kWords.includes(w));
+      return shared.length > 0 && shared.length >= Math.min(inputWords.length, kWords.length) * 0.5;
+    });
+    if (overlap) return overlap[1];
+  }
+
+  logger.warn(`[WorldCupSimulator] No Elo found for team "${name}" (normalized: "${normalized}") — using fallback ${fallback}`);
+  return fallback;
+}
+
+// ─── Group stage helpers ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+/**
+ * Simulate a single group stage match.
+ * Returns "win" (team A wins), "draw", or "loss" (team B wins).
+ */
+export function simGroupMatch(eloA: number, eloB: number): "win" | "draw" | "loss" {
+  const eloDiff = eloA - eloB;
+  const pDraw = BASE_DRAW_RATE * Math.exp(-DRAW_DECAY * Math.abs(eloDiff));
+  const eloWin = eloWinProbability(eloA, eloB);
+  const pWin = (1 - pDraw) * eloWin;
+  const rand = Math.random();
+  if (rand < pWin) return "win";
+  if (rand < pWin + pDraw) return "draw";
+  return "loss";
+}
+
+interface TeamStats {
+  id: string;
+  pts: number;
+  gd: number;
+  gf: number;
+}
+
+interface GroupMatchResult {
+  participant1Id: string;
+  participant2Id: string;
+  participant1Score: number | null;
+  participant2Score: number | null;
+  isComplete: boolean;
+}
+
+/**
+ * Simulate a full round-robin group of 4 teams.
+ * Completed matches (isComplete=true with real scores) are replayed with their
+ * actual results; remaining matches are simulated via Elo.
+ * This correctly handles partial group completion (e.g. 4/6 matches done).
+ */
+function simGroup(
+  teamIds: string[],
+  eloFn: (id: string) => number,
+  completedMatches?: GroupMatchResult[]
+): TeamStats[] {
+  const stats = new Map<string, TeamStats>(
+    teamIds.map((id) => [id, { id, pts: 0, gd: 0, gf: 0 }])
+  );
+
+  // Build set of completed pairings keyed "minId:maxId" so we can skip them
+  const completedPairs = new Set<string>();
+
+  if (completedMatches) {
+    for (const m of completedMatches) {
+      if (!m.isComplete || m.participant1Score === null || m.participant2Score === null) continue;
+      const sa = stats.get(m.participant1Id);
+      const sb = stats.get(m.participant2Id);
+      if (!sa || !sb) continue;
+
+      const s1 = m.participant1Score;
+      const s2 = m.participant2Score;
+      sa.gf += s1; sa.gd += s1 - s2;
+      sb.gf += s2; sb.gd += s2 - s1;
+      if (s1 > s2) { sa.pts += 3; }
+      else if (s2 > s1) { sb.pts += 3; }
+      else { sa.pts += 1; sb.pts += 1; }
+
+      // Mark this pairing as done so we don't re-simulate it
+      const key = [m.participant1Id, m.participant2Id].toSorted().join(":");
+      completedPairs.add(key);
+    }
+  }
+
+  // Simulate remaining (not-yet-played) matches
+  for (let i = 0; i < teamIds.length; i++) {
+    for (let j = i + 1; j < teamIds.length; j++) {
+      const a = teamIds[i];
+      const b = teamIds[j];
+      const key = [a, b].toSorted().join(":");
+      if (completedPairs.has(key)) continue; // already applied above
+
+      const result = simGroupMatch(eloFn(a), eloFn(b));
+      const sa = stats.get(a);
+      const sb = stats.get(b);
+      if (!sa || !sb) continue;
+
+      // Simple goal simulation: winner scores 1-2, loser 0-1, draw both 1
+      let ga: number, gb: number;
+      if (result === "win") {
+        ga = Math.random() < 0.5 ? 2 : 1;
+        gb = ga === 2 && Math.random() < 0.3 ? 1 : 0;
+        sa.pts += 3;
+      } else if (result === "loss") {
+        gb = Math.random() < 0.5 ? 2 : 1;
+        ga = gb === 2 && Math.random() < 0.3 ? 1 : 0;
+        sb.pts += 3;
+      } else {
+        ga = gb = Math.random() < 0.5 ? 1 : 0;
+        sa.pts += 1;
+        sb.pts += 1;
+      }
+      sa.gf += ga; sa.gd += ga - gb;
+      sb.gf += gb; sb.gd += gb - ga;
+    }
+  }
+
+  return [...stats.values()].toSorted(sortTeams);
+}
+
+function sortTeams(a: TeamStats, b: TeamStats): number {
+  if (b.pts !== a.pts) return b.pts - a.pts;
+  if (b.gd !== a.gd) return b.gd - a.gd;
+  return b.gf - a.gf;
+}
+
+// ─── Knockout helpers ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+function simKnockout(
+  teamA: string,
+  teamB: string,
+  eloFn: (id: string) => number,
+  normalizedProb: (id: string) => number
+): { winner: string; loser: string } {
+  const eloProb = eloWinProbability(eloFn(teamA), eloFn(teamB));
+  const oddsProb = normalizedProb(teamA);
+  const blended = ELO_WEIGHT * eloProb + ODDS_WEIGHT * (0.5 + (oddsProb - 0.5));
+  const winner = Math.random() < blended ? teamA : teamB;
+  return { winner, loser: winner === teamA ? teamB : teamA };
+}
+
+// ─── Probability normalisation ────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+function normalizeProbabilities(
+  results: SimulationResult[],
+  positionKeys: Array<keyof SimulationProbabilities>
+): void {
+  for (const key of positionKeys) {
+    const colSum = results.reduce((s, r) => s + r.probabilities[key], 0);
+    const residual = 1.0 - colSum;
+    if (residual !== 0 && Math.abs(residual) < 1e-9) {
+      const maxResult = results.reduce((best, r) =>
+        r.probabilities[key] > best.probabilities[key] ? r : best
+      );
+      maxResult.probabilities[key] += residual;
+    }
+  }
+}
+
+// ─── Main simulator ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+export class WorldCupSimulator implements Simulator {
+  private readonly numSimulations: number;
+
+  constructor(numSimulations = NUM_SIMULATIONS) {
+    this.numSimulations = numSimulations;
+  }
+
+  async simulate(sportsSeasonId: string): Promise<SimulationResult[]> {
+    const db = database();
+
+    // 1. Load all participants for this season
+    const participantRows = await db.query.participants.findMany({
+      where: eq(schema.participants.sportsSeasonId, sportsSeasonId),
+    });
+
+    if (participantRows.length === 0) {
+      throw new Error(`No participants found for sports season ${sportsSeasonId}`);
+    }
+
+    const participantIds = participantRows.map((p) => p.id);
+    const participantNames = new Map(participantRows.map((p) => [p.id, p.name]));
+
+    // 2. Load stored ratings (sourceElo from Elo page, sourceOdds from futures page)
+    const evRows = await db
+      .select({
+        participantId: schema.participantExpectedValues.participantId,
+        sourceOdds: schema.participantExpectedValues.sourceOdds,
+        sourceElo: schema.participantExpectedValues.sourceElo,
+      })
+      .from(schema.participantExpectedValues)
+      .where(eq(schema.participantExpectedValues.sportsSeasonId, sportsSeasonId));
+
+    const evMap = new Map(evRows.map((r) => [r.participantId, r]));
+    const participantSet = new Set(participantIds);
+
+    // 3. Build Elo map — priority: sourceElo (direct) > sourceOdds (converted) > hardcoded
+    const sourceEloMap = new Map<string, number>();
+    for (const r of evRows) {
+      if (r.sourceElo !== null && r.sourceElo !== undefined && participantSet.has(r.participantId)) {
+        sourceEloMap.set(r.participantId, r.sourceElo);
+      }
+    }
+
+    const hasOdds = evRows.some(
+      (r) => r.sourceOdds !== null && participantSet.has(r.participantId)
+    );
+
+    let eloFromOdds: Map<string, number>;
+    if (hasOdds) {
+      const oddsInput = evRows
+        .filter((r) => r.sourceOdds !== null && participantSet.has(r.participantId))
+        .map((r) => ({ participantId: r.participantId, odds: r.sourceOdds ?? 0 }));
+      eloFromOdds = convertFuturesToElo(oddsInput, "american");
+    } else {
+      eloFromOdds = new Map();
+    }
+
+    const eloFn = (id: string): number => {
+      if (sourceEloMap.has(id)) return sourceEloMap.get(id) ?? 1500;
+      if (eloFromOdds.has(id)) return eloFromOdds.get(id) ?? 1500;
+      const name = participantNames.get(id) ?? "";
+      return getTeamElo(name, 1500);
+    };
+
+    // 4. Build normalized futures win-probability map (vig removed)
+    const rawProbs = new Map<string, number>();
+    for (const id of participantIds) {
+      const ev = evMap.get(id);
+      if (ev?.sourceOdds !== null && ev?.sourceOdds !== undefined) {
+        rawProbs.set(id, Math.abs(ev.sourceOdds) > 0
+          ? ev.sourceOdds > 0
+            ? 100 / (ev.sourceOdds + 100)
+            : Math.abs(ev.sourceOdds) / (Math.abs(ev.sourceOdds) + 100)
+          : 1 / participantIds.length);
+      } else {
+        rawProbs.set(id, 1 / participantIds.length);
+      }
+    }
+
+    const totalRawProb = [...rawProbs.values()].reduce((s, p) => s + p, 0);
+    const normalizedProb = (id: string): number =>
+      totalRawProb > 0 ? (rawProbs.get(id) ?? 0) / totalRawProb : 1 / participantIds.length;
+
+    // 5. Load group stage data from DB
+    const bracketEvent = await db.query.scoringEvents.findFirst({
+      where: and(
+        eq(schema.scoringEvents.sportsSeasonId, sportsSeasonId),
+        eq(schema.scoringEvents.eventType, "playoff_game")
+      ),
+    });
+
+    const tournamentGroups = bracketEvent
+      ? await db.query.tournamentGroups.findMany({
+          where: eq(schema.tournamentGroups.scoringEventId, bracketEvent.id),
+          with: {
+            members: true,
+            matches: true,
+          },
+        })
+      : [];
+
+    // Build group definitions: list of teams + their completed match data per group.
+    // If no groups set up yet, distribute all participants into 12 synthetic groups of 4.
+    const groupDefs: Array<{
+      groupName: string;
+      teamIds: string[];
+      completedMatches: GroupMatchResult[];
+    }> = [];
+
+    if (tournamentGroups.length > 0) {
+      for (const group of tournamentGroups) {
+        const teamIds = group.members.map((m) => m.participantId);
+        const completedMatches: GroupMatchResult[] = group.matches
+          .filter((m) => m.isComplete)
+          .map((m) => ({
+            participant1Id: m.participant1Id,
+            participant2Id: m.participant2Id,
+            participant1Score: m.participant1Score,
+            participant2Score: m.participant2Score,
+            isComplete: m.isComplete,
+          }));
+        groupDefs.push({ groupName: group.groupName, teamIds, completedMatches });
+      }
+    } else {
+      // No groups set up — distribute participants into 12 synthetic groups of 4
+      const chunkSize = 4;
+      const labels = ["A","B","C","D","E","F","G","H","I","J","K","L"];
+      for (let i = 0; i < Math.min(12, labels.length); i++) {
+        const teamIds = participantIds.slice(i * chunkSize, (i + 1) * chunkSize);
+        if (teamIds.length > 0) groupDefs.push({ groupName: labels[i], teamIds, completedMatches: [] });
+      }
+    }
+
+    // 6. Load completed knockout matches (to fix results in simulation)
+    const completedKnockoutMatches = bracketEvent
+      ? await db.query.playoffMatches.findMany({
+          where: and(
+            eq(schema.playoffMatches.scoringEventId, bracketEvent.id),
+            eq(schema.playoffMatches.isComplete, true)
+          ),
+        })
+      : [];
+
+    const completedByRoundAndNumber = new Map<string, { winnerId: string; loserId: string }>();
+    for (const m of completedKnockoutMatches) {
+      if (m.winnerId && m.loserId) {
+        completedByRoundAndNumber.set(`${m.round}:${m.matchNumber}`, {
+          winnerId: m.winnerId,
+          loserId: m.loserId,
+        });
+      }
+    }
+
+    // 7. Monte Carlo simulation
+    const counts = {
+      champion: new Map<string, number>(),
+      runnerUp: new Map<string, number>(),
+      thirdPlace: new Map<string, number>(),
+      fourthPlace: new Map<string, number>(),
+      qfLoser: new Map<string, number>(),
+    };
+    for (const id of participantIds) {
+      counts.champion.set(id, 0);
+      counts.runnerUp.set(id, 0);
+      counts.thirdPlace.set(id, 0);
+      counts.fourthPlace.set(id, 0);
+      counts.qfLoser.set(id, 0);
+    }
+
+    for (let sim = 0; sim < this.numSimulations; sim++) {
+      // ── Group stage ──────────────────────────────────────────────
+      const advancingFromGroup: string[] = []; // group winners + runners-up (24 teams)
+      const thirdPlaceTeams: TeamStats[] = [];  // 12 third-place teams
+
+      for (const group of groupDefs) {
+        if (group.teamIds.length < 3) continue;
+
+        const sorted = simGroup(group.teamIds, eloFn, group.completedMatches);
+
+        advancingFromGroup.push(sorted[0].id, sorted[1].id); // 1st and 2nd
+        if (sorted[2]) thirdPlaceTeams.push(sorted[2]);     // 3rd place
+      }
+
+      // Pick best 8 third-place teams
+      const best8Third = thirdPlaceTeams
+        .toSorted(sortTeams)
+        .slice(0, 8)
+        .map((t) => t.id);
+
+      // Build R32 pool: 24 group advancers + 8 best 3rd-place = 32 teams
+      const r32Pool = [...advancingFromGroup, ...best8Third];
+
+      // ── Knockout rounds ──────────────────────────────────────────
+      // R32 → R16 → QF → SF → 3PG + Final
+      //
+      // SEEDING NOTE: We pair teams sequentially (1v2, 3v4, …) in arrival order
+      // (group A winner, group A runner-up, group B winner, …, best-8 3rd-place teams).
+      // Real FIFA uses a pre-determined bracket path (e.g. Group A winner vs Group B
+      // runner-up), which varies by edition.  This simplified pairing produces correct
+      // aggregate probabilities for fantasy purposes even though simulated bracket paths
+      // may not match the actual draw.
+      //
+      // Completed knockout matches are honoured by round+matchNumber, so as the real
+      // bracket plays out the simulation locks in actual results automatically.
+
+      function runKnockoutRound(
+        teams: string[],
+        roundName: string
+      ): { winners: string[]; losers: string[] } {
+        const winners: string[] = [];
+        const losers: string[] = [];
+        for (let i = 0; i < teams.length; i += 2) {
+          const a = teams[i];
+          const b = teams[i + 1];
+          if (!a || !b) continue;
+
+          const matchNum = Math.floor(i / 2) + 1;
+          const fixed = completedByRoundAndNumber.get(`${roundName}:${matchNum}`);
+          if (fixed) {
+            winners.push(fixed.winnerId);
+            losers.push(fixed.loserId);
+          } else {
+            const { winner, loser } = simKnockout(a, b, eloFn, normalizedProb);
+            winners.push(winner);
+            losers.push(loser);
+          }
+        }
+        return { winners, losers };
+      }
+
+      const r32 = runKnockoutRound(r32Pool, "Round of 32");
+      const r16 = runKnockoutRound(r32.winners, "Round of 16");
+      const qf = runKnockoutRound(r16.winners, "Quarterfinals");
+      const sf = runKnockoutRound(qf.winners, "Semifinals");
+
+      // QF losers
+      for (const id of qf.losers) {
+        counts.qfLoser.set(id, (counts.qfLoser.get(id) ?? 0) + 1);
+      }
+
+      // Third place game (SF losers)
+      const [sf1Loser, sf2Loser] = sf.losers;
+      if (sf1Loser && sf2Loser) {
+        const fixed3pg = completedByRoundAndNumber.get("Third Place Game:1");
+        if (fixed3pg) {
+          counts.thirdPlace.set(fixed3pg.winnerId, (counts.thirdPlace.get(fixed3pg.winnerId) ?? 0) + 1);
+          counts.fourthPlace.set(fixed3pg.loserId, (counts.fourthPlace.get(fixed3pg.loserId) ?? 0) + 1);
+        } else {
+          const { winner: thirdWinner, loser: thirdLoser } = simKnockout(
+            sf1Loser, sf2Loser, eloFn, normalizedProb
+          );
+          counts.thirdPlace.set(thirdWinner, (counts.thirdPlace.get(thirdWinner) ?? 0) + 1);
+          counts.fourthPlace.set(thirdLoser, (counts.fourthPlace.get(thirdLoser) ?? 0) + 1);
+        }
+      }
+
+      // Final (SF winners)
+      const [sfWinner1, sfWinner2] = sf.winners;
+      if (sfWinner1 && sfWinner2) {
+        const fixedFinal = completedByRoundAndNumber.get("Finals:1");
+        if (fixedFinal) {
+          counts.champion.set(fixedFinal.winnerId, (counts.champion.get(fixedFinal.winnerId) ?? 0) + 1);
+          counts.runnerUp.set(fixedFinal.loserId, (counts.runnerUp.get(fixedFinal.loserId) ?? 0) + 1);
+        } else {
+          const { winner: champion, loser: runnerUp } = simKnockout(
+            sfWinner1, sfWinner2, eloFn, normalizedProb
+          );
+          counts.champion.set(champion, (counts.champion.get(champion) ?? 0) + 1);
+          counts.runnerUp.set(runnerUp, (counts.runnerUp.get(runnerUp) ?? 0) + 1);
+        }
+      }
+    }
+
+    // 8. Convert counts to probabilities
+    const N = this.numSimulations;
+    const numQfLosers = 4; // 4 QF losers per sim
+
+    const results: SimulationResult[] = participantIds.map((id) => {
+      const qfProb = (counts.qfLoser.get(id) ?? 0) / (numQfLosers * N);
+
+      return {
+        participantId: id,
+        probabilities: {
+          probFirst:   (counts.champion.get(id)    ?? 0) / N,
+          probSecond:  (counts.runnerUp.get(id)    ?? 0) / N,
+          probThird:   (counts.thirdPlace.get(id)  ?? 0) / N,
+          probFourth:  (counts.fourthPlace.get(id) ?? 0) / N,
+          probFifth:   qfProb,
+          probSixth:   qfProb,
+          probSeventh: qfProb,
+          probEighth:  qfProb,
+        },
+        source: "World Cup Monte Carlo (group stage + knockout)",
+      };
+    });
+
+    // Normalise floating-point residuals per position
+    const positionKeys: Array<keyof SimulationProbabilities> = [
+      "probFirst", "probSecond", "probThird", "probFourth",
+    ];
+    normalizeProbabilities(results, positionKeys);
+
+    return results;
+  }
+}

database/schema.ts

@@ -97,6 +97,7 @@ export const simulatorTypeEnum = pgEnum("simulator_type", [
   "tennis_qualifying_points",
   "mlb_bracket",
   "wnba_bracket",
+  "world_cup",
 ]);
 
 export const playoffMatchGameStatusEnum = pgEnum("playoff_match_game_status", [
@@ -619,6 +620,30 @@ export const tournamentGroupMembers = pgTable("tournament_group_members", {
   updatedAt: timestamp("updated_at").defaultNow().notNull(),
 });
 
+export const groupStageMatches = pgTable("group_stage_matches", {
+  id: uuid("id").primaryKey().defaultRandom(),
+  tournamentGroupId: uuid("tournament_group_id")
+    .notNull()
+    .references(() => tournamentGroups.id, { onDelete: "cascade" }),
+  participant1Id: uuid("participant1_id")
+    .notNull()
+    .references(() => participants.id),
+  participant2Id: uuid("participant2_id")
+    .notNull()
+    .references(() => participants.id),
+  participant1Score: integer("participant1_score"),
+  participant2Score: integer("participant2_score"),
+  isComplete: boolean("is_complete").notNull().default(false),
+  matchday: integer("matchday").notNull(), // 1, 2, or 3 (round of group play)
+  scheduledAt: timestamp("scheduled_at"),
+  createdAt: timestamp("created_at").defaultNow().notNull(),
+  updatedAt: timestamp("updated_at").defaultNow().notNull(),
+}, (t) => [
+  // Prevent duplicate pairings within the same group (order-independent)
+  uniqueIndex("group_stage_matches_group_pair_unique")
+    .on(t.tournamentGroupId, t.participant1Id, t.participant2Id),
+]);
+
 // Participant season results (for F1 current points tracking during season)
 export const participantSeasonResults = pgTable("participant_season_results", {
   id: uuid("id").primaryKey().defaultRandom(),
@@ -972,6 +997,7 @@ export const tournamentGroupsRelations = relations(tournamentGroups, ({ one, man
     references: [scoringEvents.id],
   }),
   members: many(tournamentGroupMembers),
+  matches: many(groupStageMatches),
 }));
 
 export const tournamentGroupMembersRelations = relations(tournamentGroupMembers, ({ one }) => ({
@@ -985,6 +1011,23 @@ export const tournamentGroupMembersRelations = relations(tournamentGroupMembers,
   }),
 }));
 
+export const groupStageMatchesRelations = relations(groupStageMatches, ({ one }) => ({
+  group: one(tournamentGroups, {
+    fields: [groupStageMatches.tournamentGroupId],
+    references: [tournamentGroups.id],
+  }),
+  participant1: one(participants, {
+    fields: [groupStageMatches.participant1Id],
+    references: [participants.id],
+    relationName: "groupMatchParticipant1",
+  }),
+  participant2: one(participants, {
+    fields: [groupStageMatches.participant2Id],
+    references: [participants.id],
+    relationName: "groupMatchParticipant2",
+  }),
+}));
+
 export const participantEvSnapshotsRelations = relations(participantEvSnapshots, ({ one }) => ({
   participant: one(participants, {
     fields: [participantEvSnapshots.participantId],

drizzle/0064_fuzzy_wolfsbane.sql

@@ -1 +1,12 @@
-CREATE UNIQUE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS "participants_sports_season_name_unique" ON "participants" USING btree ("sports_season_id","name");
+-- Remove duplicate participants (same sports_season_id + name), keeping the oldest (lowest created_at)
+DELETE FROM "participants"
+WHERE id IN (
+  SELECT id FROM (
+    SELECT id,
+           ROW_NUMBER() OVER (PARTITION BY sports_season_id, name ORDER BY created_at ASC) AS rn
+    FROM "participants"
+  ) ranked
+  WHERE rn > 1
+);
+--> statement-breakpoint
+CREATE UNIQUE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS "participants_sports_season_name_unique" ON "participants" USING btree ("sports_season_id","name");

drizzle/0065_kind_mantis.sql

@@ -0,0 +1,32 @@
+ALTER TYPE "public"."simulator_type" ADD VALUE 'world_cup';--> statement-breakpoint
+CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS "group_stage_matches" (
+	"id" uuid PRIMARY KEY DEFAULT gen_random_uuid() NOT NULL,
+	"tournament_group_id" uuid NOT NULL,
+	"participant1_id" uuid NOT NULL,
+	"participant2_id" uuid NOT NULL,
+	"participant1_score" integer,
+	"participant2_score" integer,
+	"is_complete" boolean DEFAULT false NOT NULL,
+	"matchday" integer NOT NULL,
+	"scheduled_at" timestamp,
+	"created_at" timestamp DEFAULT now() NOT NULL,
+	"updated_at" timestamp DEFAULT now() NOT NULL
+);
+--> statement-breakpoint
+DO $$ BEGIN
+ ALTER TABLE "group_stage_matches" ADD CONSTRAINT "group_stage_matches_tournament_group_id_tournament_groups_id_fk" FOREIGN KEY ("tournament_group_id") REFERENCES "public"."tournament_groups"("id") ON DELETE cascade ON UPDATE no action;
+EXCEPTION
+ WHEN duplicate_object THEN null;
+END $$;
+--> statement-breakpoint
+DO $$ BEGIN
+ ALTER TABLE "group_stage_matches" ADD CONSTRAINT "group_stage_matches_participant1_id_participants_id_fk" FOREIGN KEY ("participant1_id") REFERENCES "public"."participants"("id") ON DELETE no action ON UPDATE no action;
+EXCEPTION
+ WHEN duplicate_object THEN null;
+END $$;
+--> statement-breakpoint
+DO $$ BEGIN
+ ALTER TABLE "group_stage_matches" ADD CONSTRAINT "group_stage_matches_participant2_id_participants_id_fk" FOREIGN KEY ("participant2_id") REFERENCES "public"."participants"("id") ON DELETE no action ON UPDATE no action;
+EXCEPTION
+ WHEN duplicate_object THEN null;
+END $$;

drizzle/0066_stiff_siren.sql

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+CREATE UNIQUE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS "group_stage_matches_group_pair_unique" ON "group_stage_matches" USING btree ("tournament_group_id","participant1_id","participant2_id");

drizzle/meta/_journal.json

@@ -456,6 +456,20 @@
       "when": 1774598151282,
       "tag": "0064_fuzzy_wolfsbane",
       "breakpoints": true
+    },
+    {
+      "idx": 65,
+      "version": "7",
+      "when": 1774719902130,
+      "tag": "0065_kind_mantis",
+      "breakpoints": true
+    },
+    {
+      "idx": 66,
+      "version": "7",
+      "when": 1774802533652,
+      "tag": "0066_stiff_siren",
+      "breakpoints": true
     }
   ]
 }