brackt/app/routes/admin.sports-seasons.$id.elo-ratings.tsx
Chris Parsons 338979e0a8
Add FIFA World Cup 2026 support with group stage display and Monte Carlo simulator (#242)
* Add FIFA World Cup 2026 support with group stage display and Monte Carlo simulator, fixes #127

- New `groupStageMatches` table for recording group play results (W/D/L, scores, matchday, schedule)
- `computeGroupStandings()` model function: pts → GD → GF → name tiebreaker ordering
- `GroupStageStandings` component showing all 12 groups with standings table and manager column
- Admin bracket UI: group match score entry, per-group standings, "Recalculate Floors" action
- `WorldCupSimulator`: 50k Monte Carlo covering group stage + best-8 3rd-place + knockout + 3rd place game
  - Fuzzy name matching for national team Elo lookup (exact → substring → word-overlap), warns on miss
  - Partial group completion: completed matches replayed with real scores, remaining matches simulated
  - Elo priority: admin-entered sourceElo > futures odds converted to Elo > hardcoded national team ratings
- `fifa_48` bracket template: added Third Place Game round with `loserFeedsInto` on Semifinals
- Scoring rules: distinct 3rd/4th place for `fifa_48` (not averaged), QF losers share 5th–8th equally
- Floor scoring: SF participants guaranteed 4th (provisional), finalized after 3rd place game
- `recalculate-floors` admin action deletes and replays all results from scratch (fixes stale guard bug)
- Unique index on `(tournamentGroupId, participant1Id, participant2Id)` to prevent duplicate pairings
- Batch `findMatchesByGroupIds()` replacing N sequential queries in the sport season loader
- League home mini-standings now shows `actualPoints` (includes floor) instead of `totalPoints` only
- Elo ratings admin page supports World Cup (same bulk-import flow as snooker)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* Fix TypeScript errors: update GroupStandingData type to use findMatchesByGroupIds

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* Increase Node heap to 4GB for unit tests in CI to prevent OOM

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* Fix OOM in CI: make WorldCupSimulator simulation count configurable for tests

Tests now pass numSimulations=500 instead of the production default of 50,000.
Six simulator tests × 50k iterations each was exhausting the 4GB heap on GitHub
Actions runners. Also reduce simGroupMatch stat tests from 50k to 5k iterations.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

---------

Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-29 10:27:47 -07:00

413 lines
16 KiB
TypeScript
Raw Blame History

This file contains ambiguous Unicode characters

This file contains Unicode characters that might be confused with other characters. If you think that this is intentional, you can safely ignore this warning. Use the Escape button to reveal them.

import { Form, redirect, useLoaderData, useActionData, useNavigation } from 'react-router';
import type { Route } from './+types/admin.sports-seasons.$id.elo-ratings';
import { logger } from '~/lib/logger';
import { findSportsSeasonById, updateSportsSeason } from '~/models/sports-season';
import { findParticipantsBySportsSeasonId } from '~/models/participant';
import {
getAllParticipantEVsForSeason,
batchSaveSourceElos,
batchUpsertParticipantEVs,
} from '~/models/participant-expected-value';
import { batchUpsertParticipantEvSnapshots } from '~/models/ev-snapshot';
import { getSimulator, type SimulatorType } from '~/services/simulations/registry';
import { calculateEV } from '~/services/ev-calculator';
import { DEFAULT_SCORING_RULES } from '~/lib/scoring-types';
import { recalculateStandings } from '~/models/scoring-calculator';
import { database } from '~/database/context';
import * as schema from '~/database/schema';
import { eq } from 'drizzle-orm';
import { Button } from '~/components/ui/button';
import { Input } from '~/components/ui/input';
import { Label } from '~/components/ui/label';
import { Textarea } from '~/components/ui/textarea';
import {
Card,
CardContent,
CardDescription,
CardHeader,
CardTitle,
} from '~/components/ui/card';
import { useState } from 'react';
import { Loader2, CheckCircle2, AlertCircle } from 'lucide-react';
export function meta({ data }: Route.MetaArgs): Route.MetaDescriptors {
return [{ title: `Elo Ratings — ${data?.sportsSeason?.name ?? "Sports Season"} - Brackt Admin` }];
}
export async function loader({ params }: Route.LoaderArgs) {
const sportsSeasonId = params.id;
const sportsSeason = await findSportsSeasonById(sportsSeasonId);
if (!sportsSeason) {
throw new Response('Sports season not found', { status: 404 });
}
const participants = await findParticipantsBySportsSeasonId(sportsSeasonId);
const existingEVs = await getAllParticipantEVsForSeason(sportsSeasonId);
const existingElos: Record<string, number> = {};
for (const ev of existingEVs) {
if (ev.sourceElo !== null && ev.sourceElo !== undefined) {
existingElos[ev.participantId] = ev.sourceElo;
}
}
return { sportsSeason, participants, existingElos };
}
interface ActionData {
success?: boolean;
message?: string;
}
export async function action({ request, params }: Route.ActionArgs) {
const sportsSeasonId = params.id;
const formData = await request.formData();
const sportsSeason = await findSportsSeasonById(sportsSeasonId);
if (!sportsSeason) {
return { success: false, message: 'Sports season not found' };
}
const participants = await findParticipantsBySportsSeasonId(sportsSeasonId);
// Parse Elo ratings from form
const eloInputs: Array<{ participantId: string; sportsSeasonId: string; sourceElo: number }> = [];
for (const participant of participants) {
const val = formData.get(`elo_${participant.id}`) as string;
if (val && val.trim() !== '') {
const elo = Number(val);
if (!isNaN(elo) && elo > 0) {
eloInputs.push({ participantId: participant.id, sportsSeasonId, sourceElo: elo });
}
}
}
if (eloInputs.length === 0) {
return { success: false, message: 'Please enter an Elo rating for at least one participant' };
}
if (!sportsSeason.sport?.simulatorType) {
return { success: false, message: 'This sport has no simulator type configured. Set one on the sport in the admin panel.' };
}
if (sportsSeason.simulationStatus === 'running') {
return { success: false, message: 'A simulation is already running. Please wait.' };
}
// Persist Elo ratings
await batchSaveSourceElos(eloInputs);
// Auto-run simulation
await updateSportsSeason(sportsSeasonId, { simulationStatus: 'running' });
try {
const simulator = getSimulator(sportsSeason.sport.simulatorType as SimulatorType);
const results = await simulator.simulate(sportsSeasonId);
if (results.length === 0) {
throw new Error('Simulation returned no results.');
}
// Zero out any participants not in simulation results
const allParticipants = participants;
const simulatedIds = new Set(results.map(r => r.participantId));
const ZERO_PROBS = {
probFirst: 0, probSecond: 0, probThird: 0, probFourth: 0,
probFifth: 0, probSixth: 0, probSeventh: 0, probEighth: 0,
};
const evInputs = [
...results.map(r => ({
participantId: r.participantId,
sportsSeasonId,
probabilities: r.probabilities,
scoringRules: DEFAULT_SCORING_RULES,
source: 'elo_simulation' as const,
})),
...allParticipants
.filter(p => !simulatedIds.has(p.id))
.map(p => ({
participantId: p.id,
sportsSeasonId,
probabilities: ZERO_PROBS,
scoringRules: DEFAULT_SCORING_RULES,
source: 'elo_simulation' as const,
})),
];
await batchUpsertParticipantEVs(evInputs);
// Refresh projected points in team standings
const seasonSports = await database().query.seasonSports.findMany({
where: eq(schema.seasonSports.sportsSeasonId, sportsSeasonId),
});
await Promise.all(seasonSports.map(({ seasonId }) => recalculateStandings(seasonId)));
// EV snapshot
const today = new Date().toISOString().slice(0, 10);
await batchUpsertParticipantEvSnapshots(
results.map(r => ({
participantId: r.participantId,
sportsSeasonId,
snapshotDate: today,
probFirst: r.probabilities.probFirst,
probSecond: r.probabilities.probSecond,
probThird: r.probabilities.probThird,
probFourth: r.probabilities.probFourth,
probFifth: r.probabilities.probFifth,
probSixth: r.probabilities.probSixth,
probSeventh: r.probabilities.probSeventh,
probEighth: r.probabilities.probEighth,
calculatedEV: calculateEV(r.probabilities, DEFAULT_SCORING_RULES),
source: r.source,
}))
);
await updateSportsSeason(sportsSeasonId, { simulationStatus: 'idle' });
} catch (error) {
await updateSportsSeason(sportsSeasonId, { simulationStatus: 'failed' });
logger.error('Error running snooker simulation:', error);
return {
success: false,
message: error instanceof Error ? error.message : 'Simulation failed',
};
}
return redirect(`/admin/sports-seasons/${sportsSeasonId}/expected-values`);
}
function normalizeName(name: string): string {
return name.toLowerCase().replace(/[^a-z0-9\s]/g, '').replace(/\s+/g, ' ').trim();
}
export default function AdminSportsSeasonEloRatings() {
const { sportsSeason, participants, existingElos } = useLoaderData<typeof loader>();
const actionData = useActionData<ActionData>();
const navigation = useNavigation();
const [eloValues, setEloValues] = useState<Record<string, string>>(() => {
const initial: Record<string, string> = {};
participants.forEach(p => {
const existing = existingElos[p.id];
if (existing !== undefined && existing !== null) {
initial[p.id] = existing.toString();
}
});
return initial;
});
// Bulk import state: "Player Name, 2450" format one per line
const [bulkText, setBulkText] = useState('');
const [parseResults, setParseResults] = useState<{
matched: Array<{ participantId: string; name: string; elo: number; inputName: string }>;
unmatched: Array<{ inputName: string; elo: number }>;
} | null>(null);
function findParticipantMatch(inputName: string) {
const normalizedInput = normalizeName(inputName);
const normalized = participants.map(p => ({ p, n: normalizeName(p.name) }));
const exact = normalized.find(({ n }) => n === normalizedInput);
if (exact) return exact.p;
const contains = normalized.find(({ n }) => n.includes(normalizedInput) || normalizedInput.includes(n));
if (contains) return contains.p;
const inputWords = normalizedInput.split(' ').filter(w => w.length > 2);
const overlap = normalized.find(({ n }) => {
const pWords = n.split(' ').filter(w => w.length > 2);
const shared = inputWords.filter(w => pWords.includes(w));
return shared.length > 0 && shared.length >= Math.min(inputWords.length, pWords.length) * 0.5;
});
return overlap?.p ?? null;
}
function parseBulkText() {
// Format: "Player Name, 2450" or "Player Name: 2450" or "Player Name 2450"
const lines = bulkText.split('\n');
const matched: Array<{ participantId: string; name: string; elo: number; inputName: string }> = [];
const unmatched: Array<{ inputName: string; elo: number }> = [];
const seen = new Set<string>();
for (const line of lines) {
const trimmed = line.trim();
if (!trimmed) continue;
// Match "Name, 2450" or "Name: 2450" or "Name 2450" (Elo is a 4-digit integer)
const match = /^(.+?)[\s,:\t]+(\d{3,5})\s*$/.exec(trimmed);
if (!match) continue;
const inputName = match[1].trim();
const elo = parseInt(match[2], 10);
if (isNaN(elo) || elo < 500 || elo > 5000) continue;
const participant = findParticipantMatch(inputName);
if (participant && !seen.has(participant.id)) {
seen.add(participant.id);
matched.push({ participantId: participant.id, name: participant.name, elo, inputName });
} else if (!participant) {
unmatched.push({ inputName, elo });
}
}
setParseResults({ matched, unmatched });
}
function applyMatches() {
if (!parseResults) return;
const newValues = { ...eloValues };
for (const m of parseResults.matched) {
newValues[m.participantId] = m.elo.toString();
}
setEloValues(newValues);
setParseResults(null);
setBulkText('');
}
const isSubmitting = navigation.state === 'submitting';
return (
<div className="container mx-auto py-8">
<div className="mb-8">
<h1 className="text-3xl font-bold mb-2">Elo Ratings</h1>
<p className="text-muted-foreground">
{sportsSeason.sport.name} {sportsSeason.name}
</p>
</div>
{/* Bulk Import */}
<Card className="mb-6">
<CardHeader>
<CardTitle>Bulk Import</CardTitle>
<CardDescription>
Paste Elo ratings one per line. Format: <code>Player Name, 2450</code>. Player names
are fuzzy-matched to participants. Elo values should be in the 20002900 range for snooker.
</CardDescription>
</CardHeader>
<CardContent className="space-y-4">
<Textarea
placeholder={`Judd Trump, 2594\nRonnie O'Sullivan, 2441\nMark Selby, 2432`}
value={bulkText}
onChange={e => { setBulkText(e.target.value); setParseResults(null); }}
rows={8}
className="font-mono text-sm"
/>
<Button type="button" variant="outline" onClick={parseBulkText} disabled={!bulkText.trim()}>
Parse Ratings
</Button>
{parseResults && (
<div className="space-y-3">
{parseResults.matched.length > 0 && (
<div>
<div className="flex items-center gap-2 text-sm font-medium text-emerald-400 mb-2">
<CheckCircle2 className="h-4 w-4" />
Matched ({parseResults.matched.length})
</div>
<div className="rounded-md border border-emerald-500/30 bg-emerald-500/10 divide-y divide-emerald-500/20 text-sm">
{parseResults.matched.map(m => (
<div key={m.participantId} className="flex justify-between px-3 py-1.5">
<span className="text-muted-foreground">{m.inputName}</span>
<span className="font-medium">{m.name} &rarr; {m.elo}</span>
</div>
))}
</div>
</div>
)}
{parseResults.unmatched.length > 0 && (
<div>
<div className="flex items-center gap-2 text-sm font-medium text-amber-700 mb-2">
<AlertCircle className="h-4 w-4" />
Not matched ({parseResults.unmatched.length}) enter manually below
</div>
<div className="rounded-md border border-amber-200 bg-amber-50 divide-y divide-amber-100 text-sm">
{parseResults.unmatched.map(u => (
<div key={u.inputName} className="flex justify-between px-3 py-1.5">
<span>{u.inputName}</span>
<span className="font-medium">{u.elo}</span>
</div>
))}
</div>
</div>
)}
{parseResults.matched.length > 0 && (
<Button type="button" onClick={applyMatches}>
Apply {parseResults.matched.length} matched ratings to form
</Button>
)}
</div>
)}
</CardContent>
</Card>
<div className="grid gap-6 lg:grid-cols-2">
<Card>
<CardHeader>
<CardTitle>Player Elo Ratings</CardTitle>
<CardDescription>
Enter each player's current Elo rating. Saving will automatically run the simulation
and update expected values. Snooker Elo typically ranges from ~2000 (qualifier level)
to ~2600 (world-class).
</CardDescription>
</CardHeader>
<CardContent>
<Form method="post" className="space-y-4">
<div className="space-y-3">
{participants.map(participant => (
<div key={participant.id} className="grid grid-cols-2 gap-4 items-center">
<Label htmlFor={`elo_${participant.id}`}>{participant.name}</Label>
<Input
type="number"
id={`elo_${participant.id}`}
name={`elo_${participant.id}`}
placeholder="2450"
value={eloValues[participant.id] ?? ''}
onChange={e =>
setEloValues(prev => ({ ...prev, [participant.id]: e.target.value }))
}
/>
</div>
))}
</div>
{actionData && !actionData.success && actionData.message && (
<div className="text-sm text-destructive">{actionData.message}</div>
)}
<Button type="submit" disabled={isSubmitting}>
{isSubmitting && <Loader2 className="mr-2 h-4 w-4 animate-spin" />}
{isSubmitting ? 'Saving & Running Simulation...' : 'Save Ratings & Run Simulation'}
</Button>
</Form>
</CardContent>
</Card>
<Card>
<CardHeader>
<CardTitle>How It Works</CardTitle>
</CardHeader>
<CardContent className="text-sm space-y-2">
<ol className="list-decimal list-inside space-y-2">
<li>Save Elo ratings for all participants</li>
<li>Compute per-frame win probability: p = 1 / (1 + e^(ΔElo/700))</li>
<li>Compute match win probability using the Bernoulli frame model for each round's best-of length</li>
<li>Run 50,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the full bracket</li>
<li>Distribute probabilities across 1st8th place buckets</li>
<li>Calculate expected fantasy value per player</li>
</ol>
<div className="mt-4 text-muted-foreground text-xs space-y-1">
<div>Round frames: R32 best-of-19, R16/QF best-of-25, SF best-of-33, Final best-of-35</div>
<div>World rankings (for pre-bracket draws) are hardcoded in the simulator.</div>
</div>
</CardContent>
</Card>
</div>
</div>
);
}