Add NCAAM and NCAAW bracket Monte Carlo simulators (#150)
- NCAAM: KenPom AEM logistic formula (1/(1+exp(-diff/7.5))), data through 2025-26 March 15 - NCAAW: Barttorvik Barthag Log5 formula (A*(1-B)/(A*(1-B)+B*(1-A))), same bracket structure - Both simulators: 50,000-iteration Monte Carlo, First Four simulation, honors completed matches - Track E8+ placements only: champion, finalist, FF losers (3rd/4th), E8 losers (5th–8th) - Add bracket configuration validation: null R64 slots must exactly match First Four mapping - Fix DEFAULT_SCORING_RULES to 100/70/45/45/20/20/20/20 (3rd/4th=45, 5th–8th=20) - Align scoring constants across simulate route, expected-values display, and server action - Zero out EVs for non-bracket participants on every simulation run (prevents EV inflation) - Add EV total invariant warning (expected ~340) on expected-values admin page - 98 unit tests across NCAAM, NCAAW, and UCL simulators — all passing Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
This commit is contained in:
Chris Parsons
GitHub
parent
0277c4d25e
commit
47b8935be6
13 changed files with 1923 additions and 22 deletions
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@ -29,12 +29,12 @@ export async function loader({ params }: Route.LoaderArgs) {
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const scoringRules = {
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const scoringRules = {
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pointsFor1st: 100,
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pointsFor1st: 100,
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pointsFor2nd: 70,
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pointsFor2nd: 70,
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pointsFor3rd: 50,
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pointsFor3rd: 45,
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pointsFor4th: 40,
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pointsFor4th: 45,
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pointsFor5th: 25,
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pointsFor5th: 20,
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pointsFor6th: 25,
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pointsFor6th: 20,
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pointsFor7th: 15,
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pointsFor7th: 20,
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pointsFor8th: 15,
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pointsFor8th: 20,
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};
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};
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export async function action({ request, params }: Route.ActionArgs) {
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export async function action({ request, params }: Route.ActionArgs) {
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@ -26,7 +26,17 @@ export function meta({ data }: Route.MetaArgs): Route.MetaDescriptors {
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export { loader };
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export { loader };
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const SCORING = [100, 70, 50, 40, 25, 25, 15, 15] as const;
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// DEFAULT scoring values — must match DEFAULT_SCORING_RULES in the simulate route.
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// Scoring: 1st=100, 2nd=70, 3rd/4th (FF losers)=45 each, 5th–8th (E8 losers)=20 each.
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// Sum = 100+70+45+45+20+20+20+20 = 340.
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//
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// Total EV invariant: Σ EV across all participants = Σ scoring values = 340,
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// because each probability column sums to 1.0 across all participants.
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// If total drifts from 340, likely causes:
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// 1. Stale EV records from a prior simulation run (fix: re-run simulation, which now
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// zeros non-bracket participants automatically)
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// 2. DB precision truncation (numeric(6,4) = 4dp; max drift ≈ ±1 for 68 teams)
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const SCORING = [100, 70, 45, 45, 20, 20, 20, 20] as const;
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function evFromProbs(ev: {
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function evFromProbs(ev: {
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probFirst: string; probSecond: string; probThird: string; probFourth: string;
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probFirst: string; probSecond: string; probThird: string; probFourth: string;
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@ -131,7 +141,14 @@ export default function ExpectedValuesPage({ loaderData }: Route.ComponentProps)
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})}
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})}
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{existingEVs.size > 0 && (
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{existingEVs.size > 0 && (
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<TableRow className="border-t-2 font-bold bg-muted/50">
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<TableRow className="border-t-2 font-bold bg-muted/50">
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<TableCell colSpan={9} className="text-right">Total EV</TableCell>
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<TableCell colSpan={9} className="text-right">
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Total EV
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{Math.abs(totalEV - 340) > 1 && (
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<span className="ml-2 text-xs font-normal text-destructive">
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(expected ~340; re-run simulation to fix stale data)
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</span>
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)}
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</TableCell>
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<TableCell className="text-center">{totalEV.toFixed(2)}</TableCell>
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<TableCell className="text-center">{totalEV.toFixed(2)}</TableCell>
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</TableRow>
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</TableRow>
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)}
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)}
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@ -14,6 +14,7 @@ import type { Route } from "./+types/admin.sports-seasons.$id.simulate";
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import { findSportsSeasonById, updateSportsSeason } from "~/models/sports-season";
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import { findSportsSeasonById, updateSportsSeason } from "~/models/sports-season";
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import { batchUpsertParticipantEVs } from "~/models/participant-expected-value";
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import { batchUpsertParticipantEVs } from "~/models/participant-expected-value";
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import { batchUpsertParticipantEvSnapshots } from "~/models/ev-snapshot";
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import { batchUpsertParticipantEvSnapshots } from "~/models/ev-snapshot";
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import { findParticipantsBySportsSeasonId } from "~/models/participant";
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import { getSimulator, type SimulatorType } from "~/services/simulations/registry";
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import { getSimulator, type SimulatorType } from "~/services/simulations/registry";
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import { calculateEV, type ScoringRules } from "~/services/ev-calculator";
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import { calculateEV, type ScoringRules } from "~/services/ev-calculator";
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@ -22,12 +23,12 @@ import { calculateEV, type ScoringRules } from "~/services/ev-calculator";
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const DEFAULT_SCORING_RULES: ScoringRules = {
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const DEFAULT_SCORING_RULES: ScoringRules = {
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pointsFor1st: 100,
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pointsFor1st: 100,
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pointsFor2nd: 70,
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pointsFor2nd: 70,
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pointsFor3rd: 50,
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pointsFor3rd: 45,
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pointsFor4th: 40,
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pointsFor4th: 45,
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pointsFor5th: 25,
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pointsFor5th: 20,
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pointsFor6th: 25,
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pointsFor6th: 20,
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pointsFor7th: 15,
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pointsFor7th: 20,
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pointsFor8th: 15,
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pointsFor8th: 20,
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};
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};
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export async function action({ params }: Route.ActionArgs) {
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export async function action({ params }: Route.ActionArgs) {
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@ -65,16 +66,38 @@ export async function action({ params }: Route.ActionArgs) {
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throw new Error("Simulation returned no results. Check that participants have EV data.");
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throw new Error("Simulation returned no results. Check that participants have EV data.");
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}
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}
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// Persist updated EVs (transactional)
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// Build a complete set of EV inputs covering ALL season participants.
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await batchUpsertParticipantEVs(
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// Participants not included in simulation results (e.g., teams in the season
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results.map((r) => ({
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// but not in the bracket) get zeroed out so stale EVs from prior runs don't
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// inflate the total. Without this, extra participants with old non-zero EVs
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// would cause the total EV to exceed the expected sum of scoring values (340).
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const allSeasonParticipants = await findParticipantsBySportsSeasonId(sportsSeasonId);
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const simulatedIds = new Set(results.map((r) => r.participantId));
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const ZERO_PROBS = {
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probFirst: 0, probSecond: 0, probThird: 0, probFourth: 0,
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probFifth: 0, probSixth: 0, probSeventh: 0, probEighth: 0,
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};
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const evInputs = [
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...results.map((r) => ({
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participantId: r.participantId,
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participantId: r.participantId,
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sportsSeasonId,
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sportsSeasonId,
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probabilities: r.probabilities,
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probabilities: r.probabilities,
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scoringRules: DEFAULT_SCORING_RULES,
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scoringRules: DEFAULT_SCORING_RULES,
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source: "elo_simulation",
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source: "elo_simulation" as const,
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}))
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})),
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);
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...allSeasonParticipants
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.filter((p) => !simulatedIds.has(p.id))
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.map((p) => ({
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participantId: p.id,
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sportsSeasonId,
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probabilities: ZERO_PROBS,
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scoringRules: DEFAULT_SCORING_RULES,
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source: "elo_simulation" as const,
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})),
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];
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// Persist updated EVs (transactional)
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await batchUpsertParticipantEVs(evInputs);
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// Take EV snapshot from simulation output (not re-read from DB)
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// Take EV snapshot from simulation output (not re-read from DB)
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const today = new Date().toISOString().slice(0, 10); // YYYY-MM-DD
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const today = new Date().toISOString().slice(0, 10); // YYYY-MM-DD
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@ -101,7 +101,7 @@ export async function action({ request, params }: Route.ActionArgs) {
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iconUrl = null;
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iconUrl = null;
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}
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}
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const validSimulatorTypes = ["f1_standings", "indycar_standings", "golf_qualifying_points", "playoff_bracket", "ucl_bracket"] as const;
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const validSimulatorTypes = ["f1_standings", "indycar_standings", "golf_qualifying_points", "playoff_bracket", "ucl_bracket", "ncaam_bracket", "ncaaw_bracket"] as const;
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type ValidSimulatorType = typeof validSimulatorTypes[number];
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type ValidSimulatorType = typeof validSimulatorTypes[number];
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const parsedSimulatorType: ValidSimulatorType | null =
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const parsedSimulatorType: ValidSimulatorType | null =
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typeof simulatorType === "string" && validSimulatorTypes.includes(simulatorType as ValidSimulatorType)
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typeof simulatorType === "string" && validSimulatorTypes.includes(simulatorType as ValidSimulatorType)
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@ -204,6 +204,8 @@ export default function EditSport({ loaderData, actionData }: Route.ComponentPro
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<SelectItem value="golf_qualifying_points">Golf Qualifying Points Model</SelectItem>
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<SelectItem value="golf_qualifying_points">Golf Qualifying Points Model</SelectItem>
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<SelectItem value="playoff_bracket">Bracket Monte Carlo</SelectItem>
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<SelectItem value="playoff_bracket">Bracket Monte Carlo</SelectItem>
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<SelectItem value="ucl_bracket">UCL Bracket Monte Carlo</SelectItem>
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<SelectItem value="ucl_bracket">UCL Bracket Monte Carlo</SelectItem>
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<SelectItem value="ncaam_bracket">NCAAM Bracket Monte Carlo</SelectItem>
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<SelectItem value="ncaaw_bracket">NCAAW Bracket Monte Carlo</SelectItem>
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</SelectContent>
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</SelectContent>
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</Select>
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</Select>
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<p className="text-sm text-muted-foreground">
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<p className="text-sm text-muted-foreground">
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287
app/services/simulations/__tests__/ncaam-simulator.test.ts
Normal file
287
app/services/simulations/__tests__/ncaam-simulator.test.ts
Normal file
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@ -0,0 +1,287 @@
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import { describe, it, expect } from "vitest";
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import { kenpomWinProbability, getNetRating, normalizeTeamName } from "../ncaam-simulator";
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// ─── KenPom win probability formula ──────────────────────────────────────────
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describe("kenpomWinProbability", () => {
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it("returns 0.5 for equal teams", () => {
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expect(kenpomWinProbability(25, 25)).toBeCloseTo(0.5, 10);
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});
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it("returns >0.5 for team A with higher netrtg", () => {
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expect(kenpomWinProbability(30, 20)).toBeGreaterThan(0.5);
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});
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it("returns <0.5 for team A with lower netrtg", () => {
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expect(kenpomWinProbability(20, 30)).toBeLessThan(0.5);
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});
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it("is symmetric: P(A>B) + P(B>A) = 1", () => {
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const pAB = kenpomWinProbability(35, 20);
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const pBA = kenpomWinProbability(20, 35);
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expect(pAB + pBA).toBeCloseTo(1.0, 10);
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});
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it("matches the logistic formula exactly for known values", () => {
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// netrtgA=38.90 (Duke 2025-26), netrtgB=0 → 1/(1+exp(-38.90/7.5))
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const expected = 1 / (1 + Math.exp(-38.90 / 7.5));
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expect(kenpomWinProbability(38.90, 0)).toBeCloseTo(expected, 10);
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});
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it("handles negative netrtg (weak team vs average)", () => {
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// negative netrtg is valid (below-average team)
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const p = kenpomWinProbability(-2, 0);
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expect(p).toBeGreaterThan(0);
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expect(p).toBeLessThan(0.5);
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});
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it("large AEM gap pushes probability toward 1", () => {
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// 38 point gap (Duke-caliber vs near-zero) → high win prob
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expect(kenpomWinProbability(38, 0)).toBeGreaterThan(0.99);
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});
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it("scale factor: a 7.5-point gap yields ~73% win probability", () => {
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// 1 / (1 + exp(-7.5/7.5)) = 1/(1+exp(-1)) ≈ 0.7311
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expect(kenpomWinProbability(7.5, 0)).toBeCloseTo(0.7311, 3);
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});
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});
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// ─── Team name normalization ──────────────────────────────────────────────────
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describe("normalizeTeamName", () => {
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it("converts to lowercase", () => {
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expect(normalizeTeamName("Duke")).toBe("duke");
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});
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it("trims leading/trailing whitespace", () => {
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expect(normalizeTeamName(" Duke ")).toBe("duke");
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});
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it("collapses internal whitespace", () => {
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expect(normalizeTeamName("North Carolina")).toBe("north carolina");
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});
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it("preserves punctuation", () => {
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expect(normalizeTeamName("St. John's")).toBe("st. john's");
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});
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});
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// ─── KenPom data lookup ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────
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describe("getNetRating", () => {
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it("returns correct netrtg for exact known name (lowercase)", () => {
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expect(getNetRating("duke")).toBeCloseTo(38.90, 2);
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});
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it("is case-insensitive", () => {
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expect(getNetRating("Duke")).toBeCloseTo(38.90, 2);
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expect(getNetRating("DUKE")).toBeCloseTo(38.90, 2);
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});
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it("handles abbreviated name variants", () => {
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// Both 'michigan st.' and 'michigan state' should resolve
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expect(getNetRating("Michigan St.")).toBeCloseTo(28.31, 2);
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expect(getNetRating("Michigan State")).toBeCloseTo(28.31, 2);
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});
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it("handles name with apostrophe", () => {
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expect(getNetRating("St. John's")).toBeCloseTo(25.91, 2);
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});
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it("returns 0.0 for an unknown team name", () => {
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expect(getNetRating("Fictional University")).toBe(0.0);
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});
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it("returns 0.0 for empty string", () => {
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expect(getNetRating("")).toBe(0.0);
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});
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it("handles negative netrtg (below-average teams)", () => {
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expect(getNetRating("Idaho")).toBeCloseTo(1.53, 2);
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expect(getNetRating("Eastern Washington")).toBeCloseTo(0.00, 2);
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});
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});
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// ─── Bracket path logic ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────
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describe("NCAAM bracket advancement path", () => {
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it("R64 matches 1 and 2 feed R32 match 1 (Math.ceil convention)", () => {
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expect(Math.ceil(1 / 2)).toBe(1);
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expect(Math.ceil(2 / 2)).toBe(1);
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});
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it("R64 matches 3 and 4 feed R32 match 2", () => {
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expect(Math.ceil(3 / 2)).toBe(2);
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expect(Math.ceil(4 / 2)).toBe(2);
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});
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it("R64 matches 31 and 32 feed R32 match 16", () => {
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expect(Math.ceil(31 / 2)).toBe(16);
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expect(Math.ceil(32 / 2)).toBe(16);
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});
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it("32 R64 matches produce exactly 16 R32 slots", () => {
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const r32Slots = new Set<number>();
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for (let i = 1; i <= 32; i++) r32Slots.add(Math.ceil(i / 2));
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expect(r32Slots.size).toBe(16);
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});
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it("R32 match i uses 0-indexed winners at (i-1)*2 and (i-1)*2+1", () => {
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for (let i = 1; i <= 16; i++) {
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const p1 = (i - 1) * 2;
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const p2 = (i - 1) * 2 + 1;
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expect(p1).toBeGreaterThanOrEqual(0);
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expect(p2).toBeLessThan(32);
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}
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});
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it("S16 match i uses 0-indexed R32 winners at (i-1)*2 and (i-1)*2+1", () => {
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for (let i = 1; i <= 8; i++) {
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const p1 = (i - 1) * 2;
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const p2 = (i - 1) * 2 + 1;
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expect(p1).toBeGreaterThanOrEqual(0);
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expect(p2).toBeLessThan(16);
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}
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});
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it("E8 match i uses 0-indexed S16 winners at (i-1)*2 and (i-1)*2+1", () => {
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for (let i = 1; i <= 4; i++) {
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const p1 = (i - 1) * 2;
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const p2 = (i - 1) * 2 + 1;
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expect(p2).toBeLessThan(8);
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}
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});
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it("FF match i uses 0-indexed E8 winners at (i-1)*2 and (i-1)*2+1", () => {
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for (let i = 1; i <= 2; i++) {
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const p1 = (i - 1) * 2;
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const p2 = (i - 1) * 2 + 1;
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expect(p2).toBeLessThan(4);
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}
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});
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});
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|
|
||||||
|
// ─── Probability bucket math ──────────────────────────────────────────────────
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
describe("NCAAM placement bucket probability math", () => {
|
||||||
|
const N = 50_000;
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
it("champion: count/N = 1.0 when a team wins every simulation", () => {
|
||||||
|
const c = N;
|
||||||
|
expect(c / N).toBeCloseTo(1.0, 10);
|
||||||
|
});
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
it("finalist: count/N = 1.0 when a team reaches final every simulation", () => {
|
||||||
|
expect(N / N).toBeCloseTo(1.0, 10);
|
||||||
|
});
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
it("FF loser slots: count/(2*N) sums to 1.0 across teams whose counts total 2*N", () => {
|
||||||
|
// 2 FF losers per sim → total across all teams = 2*N
|
||||||
|
// e.g. 2 teams each appearing N times: (N + N) / (2*N) = 1.0
|
||||||
|
const counts = [N, N];
|
||||||
|
const sum = counts.reduce((s, c) => s + c / (2 * N), 0);
|
||||||
|
expect(sum).toBeCloseTo(1.0, 10);
|
||||||
|
});
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
it("E8 loser slots: count/(4*N) sums to 1.0 across teams whose counts total 4*N", () => {
|
||||||
|
// 4 E8 losers per sim → total across all teams = 4*N
|
||||||
|
// e.g. 4 teams each appearing N times: (4*N) / (4*N) = 1.0
|
||||||
|
const counts = [N, N, N, N];
|
||||||
|
const sum = counts.reduce((s, c) => s + c / (4 * N), 0);
|
||||||
|
expect(sum).toBeCloseTo(1.0, 10);
|
||||||
|
});
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
it("probThird equals probFourth for the same team (same ff count / 2N)", () => {
|
||||||
|
const ffCount = 12500;
|
||||||
|
const probThird = ffCount / (2 * N);
|
||||||
|
const probFourth = ffCount / (2 * N);
|
||||||
|
expect(probThird).toBe(probFourth);
|
||||||
|
});
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
it("probFifth through probEighth are equal for the same team (same e8 count / 4N)", () => {
|
||||||
|
const e8Count = 6250;
|
||||||
|
const probs = [e8Count / (4 * N), e8Count / (4 * N), e8Count / (4 * N), e8Count / (4 * N)];
|
||||||
|
expect(probs[0]).toBe(probs[1]);
|
||||||
|
expect(probs[1]).toBe(probs[2]);
|
||||||
|
expect(probs[2]).toBe(probs[3]);
|
||||||
|
});
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
it("a team exiting in R64 has all-zero probabilities", () => {
|
||||||
|
// R64 losers are never counted in any bucket → all counts stay 0
|
||||||
|
const c = 0, f = 0, ff = 0, e8 = 0;
|
||||||
|
expect(c / N).toBe(0);
|
||||||
|
expect(f / N).toBe(0);
|
||||||
|
expect(ff / (2 * N)).toBe(0);
|
||||||
|
expect(e8 / (4 * N)).toBe(0);
|
||||||
|
});
|
||||||
|
});
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
// ─── EV alignment with scoring rules ─────────────────────────────────────────
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
describe("NCAAM EV calculation alignment with scoring rules", () => {
|
||||||
|
// DEFAULT_SCORING_RULES: Champion=100, Finalist=70, FF loser=45, E8 loser=20, rest=0
|
||||||
|
// (sum = 340; must match DEFAULT_SCORING_RULES in admin.sports-seasons.$id.simulate.tsx)
|
||||||
|
const SCORING = {
|
||||||
|
first: 100,
|
||||||
|
second: 70,
|
||||||
|
thirdFourth: 45,
|
||||||
|
fifthToEighth: 20,
|
||||||
|
};
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
function computeEV(probs: {
|
||||||
|
probFirst: number; probSecond: number;
|
||||||
|
probThird: number; probFourth: number;
|
||||||
|
probFifth: number; probSixth: number; probSeventh: number; probEighth: number;
|
||||||
|
}): number {
|
||||||
|
return (
|
||||||
|
probs.probFirst * SCORING.first +
|
||||||
|
probs.probSecond * SCORING.second +
|
||||||
|
probs.probThird * SCORING.thirdFourth +
|
||||||
|
probs.probFourth * SCORING.thirdFourth +
|
||||||
|
probs.probFifth * SCORING.fifthToEighth +
|
||||||
|
probs.probSixth * SCORING.fifthToEighth +
|
||||||
|
probs.probSeventh * SCORING.fifthToEighth +
|
||||||
|
probs.probEighth * SCORING.fifthToEighth
|
||||||
|
);
|
||||||
|
}
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
it("champion with probFirst=1 earns 100 EV", () => {
|
||||||
|
const probs = {
|
||||||
|
probFirst: 1, probSecond: 0, probThird: 0, probFourth: 0,
|
||||||
|
probFifth: 0, probSixth: 0, probSeventh: 0, probEighth: 0,
|
||||||
|
};
|
||||||
|
expect(computeEV(probs)).toBeCloseTo(100, 10);
|
||||||
|
});
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
it("finalist with probSecond=1 earns 70 EV", () => {
|
||||||
|
const probs = {
|
||||||
|
probFirst: 0, probSecond: 1, probThird: 0, probFourth: 0,
|
||||||
|
probFifth: 0, probSixth: 0, probSeventh: 0, probEighth: 0,
|
||||||
|
};
|
||||||
|
expect(computeEV(probs)).toBeCloseTo(70, 10);
|
||||||
|
});
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
it("confirmed FF loser (probThird=probFourth=0.5 each) earns 45 EV", () => {
|
||||||
|
const probs = {
|
||||||
|
probFirst: 0, probSecond: 0, probThird: 0.5, probFourth: 0.5,
|
||||||
|
probFifth: 0, probSixth: 0, probSeventh: 0, probEighth: 0,
|
||||||
|
};
|
||||||
|
expect(computeEV(probs)).toBeCloseTo(45, 10);
|
||||||
|
});
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
it("confirmed E8 loser (probFifth–Eighth=0.25 each) earns 20 EV", () => {
|
||||||
|
const probs = {
|
||||||
|
probFirst: 0, probSecond: 0, probThird: 0, probFourth: 0,
|
||||||
|
probFifth: 0.25, probSixth: 0.25, probSeventh: 0.25, probEighth: 0.25,
|
||||||
|
};
|
||||||
|
expect(computeEV(probs)).toBeCloseTo(20, 10);
|
||||||
|
});
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
it("R64 loser (all zeros) earns 0 EV", () => {
|
||||||
|
const probs = {
|
||||||
|
probFirst: 0, probSecond: 0, probThird: 0, probFourth: 0,
|
||||||
|
probFifth: 0, probSixth: 0, probSeventh: 0, probEighth: 0,
|
||||||
|
};
|
||||||
|
expect(computeEV(probs)).toBe(0);
|
||||||
|
});
|
||||||
|
});
|
||||||
285
app/services/simulations/__tests__/ncaaw-simulator.test.ts
Normal file
285
app/services/simulations/__tests__/ncaaw-simulator.test.ts
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,285 @@
|
||||||
|
import { describe, it, expect } from "vitest";
|
||||||
|
import { barthagWinProbability, getBarthagRating, normalizeTeamName } from "../ncaaw-simulator";
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
// ─── Log5 win probability formula ────────────────────────────────────────────
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
describe("barthagWinProbability", () => {
|
||||||
|
it("returns 0.5 for equal teams", () => {
|
||||||
|
expect(barthagWinProbability(0.7, 0.7)).toBeCloseTo(0.5, 10);
|
||||||
|
});
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
it("returns >0.5 for team A with higher Barthag", () => {
|
||||||
|
expect(barthagWinProbability(0.9, 0.6)).toBeGreaterThan(0.5);
|
||||||
|
});
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
it("returns <0.5 for team A with lower Barthag", () => {
|
||||||
|
expect(barthagWinProbability(0.6, 0.9)).toBeLessThan(0.5);
|
||||||
|
});
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
it("is symmetric: P(A>B) + P(B>A) = 1", () => {
|
||||||
|
const pAB = barthagWinProbability(0.9, 0.4);
|
||||||
|
const pBA = barthagWinProbability(0.4, 0.9);
|
||||||
|
expect(pAB + pBA).toBeCloseTo(1.0, 10);
|
||||||
|
});
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
it("satisfies the Barthag definition: barthagWinProbability(x, 0.5) === x", () => {
|
||||||
|
// The whole point of Barthag is P(team beats avg D-I opponent) = barthag
|
||||||
|
expect(barthagWinProbability(0.9, 0.5)).toBeCloseTo(0.9, 10);
|
||||||
|
expect(barthagWinProbability(0.3, 0.5)).toBeCloseTo(0.3, 10);
|
||||||
|
});
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
it("handles degenerate case: both teams at 0 → coin flip", () => {
|
||||||
|
expect(barthagWinProbability(0, 0)).toBe(0.5);
|
||||||
|
});
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
it("handles degenerate case: both teams at 1 → coin flip", () => {
|
||||||
|
expect(barthagWinProbability(1, 1)).toBe(0.5);
|
||||||
|
});
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
it("near-certain win: strong team (0.9996) vs weak team (0.35)", () => {
|
||||||
|
// Connecticut (.9996) vs Norfolk St. (.3468) — very high win probability
|
||||||
|
expect(barthagWinProbability(0.9996, 0.3468)).toBeGreaterThan(0.999);
|
||||||
|
});
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
it("matches the Log5 formula exactly for known values", () => {
|
||||||
|
const a = 0.9, b = 0.6;
|
||||||
|
const expected = (a * (1 - b)) / (a * (1 - b) + b * (1 - a));
|
||||||
|
expect(barthagWinProbability(a, b)).toBeCloseTo(expected, 10);
|
||||||
|
});
|
||||||
|
});
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
// ─── Team name normalization ──────────────────────────────────────────────────
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
describe("normalizeTeamName", () => {
|
||||||
|
it("converts to lowercase", () => {
|
||||||
|
expect(normalizeTeamName("Connecticut")).toBe("connecticut");
|
||||||
|
});
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
it("trims leading/trailing whitespace", () => {
|
||||||
|
expect(normalizeTeamName(" UCLA ")).toBe("ucla");
|
||||||
|
});
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
it("collapses internal whitespace", () => {
|
||||||
|
expect(normalizeTeamName("South Carolina")).toBe("south carolina");
|
||||||
|
});
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
it("preserves punctuation", () => {
|
||||||
|
expect(normalizeTeamName("N.C. State")).toBe("n.c. state");
|
||||||
|
});
|
||||||
|
});
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
// ─── Barthag data lookup ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
describe("getBarthagRating", () => {
|
||||||
|
it("returns correct Barthag for exact known name (lowercase)", () => {
|
||||||
|
expect(getBarthagRating("connecticut")).toBeCloseTo(0.9996, 4);
|
||||||
|
});
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
it("is case-insensitive", () => {
|
||||||
|
expect(getBarthagRating("Connecticut")).toBeCloseTo(0.9996, 4);
|
||||||
|
expect(getBarthagRating("CONNECTICUT")).toBeCloseTo(0.9996, 4);
|
||||||
|
});
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
it("resolves uconn alias", () => {
|
||||||
|
expect(getBarthagRating("UConn")).toBeCloseTo(0.9996, 4);
|
||||||
|
});
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
it("returns correct Barthag for #2 team (UCLA)", () => {
|
||||||
|
expect(getBarthagRating("UCLA")).toBeCloseTo(0.9991, 4);
|
||||||
|
});
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
it("handles abbreviated name variants", () => {
|
||||||
|
// Both 'michigan st.' and 'michigan state' should resolve
|
||||||
|
expect(getBarthagRating("Michigan St.")).toBeCloseTo(0.9817, 4);
|
||||||
|
expect(getBarthagRating("Michigan State")).toBeCloseTo(0.9817, 4);
|
||||||
|
});
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
it("handles 'n.c. state' and 'nc state' aliases", () => {
|
||||||
|
expect(getBarthagRating("N.C. State")).toBeCloseTo(0.9766, 4);
|
||||||
|
expect(getBarthagRating("nc state")).toBeCloseTo(0.9766, 4);
|
||||||
|
});
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
it("handles ole miss alias", () => {
|
||||||
|
expect(getBarthagRating("Ole Miss")).toBeCloseTo(0.9821, 4);
|
||||||
|
});
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
it("returns 0.5 for an unknown team name (BARTHAG_FALLBACK = average)", () => {
|
||||||
|
expect(getBarthagRating("Fictional University")).toBe(0.5);
|
||||||
|
});
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
it("returns 0.5 for empty string", () => {
|
||||||
|
expect(getBarthagRating("")).toBe(0.5);
|
||||||
|
});
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
it("returns correct Barthag for a low-ranked team (Norfolk St.)", () => {
|
||||||
|
expect(getBarthagRating("Norfolk St.")).toBeCloseTo(0.3468, 4);
|
||||||
|
expect(getBarthagRating("Norfolk State")).toBeCloseTo(0.3468, 4);
|
||||||
|
});
|
||||||
|
});
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
// ─── Bracket path logic ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
describe("NCAAW bracket advancement path", () => {
|
||||||
|
it("R64 matches 1 and 2 feed R32 match 1 (Math.ceil convention)", () => {
|
||||||
|
expect(Math.ceil(1 / 2)).toBe(1);
|
||||||
|
expect(Math.ceil(2 / 2)).toBe(1);
|
||||||
|
});
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
it("R64 matches 3 and 4 feed R32 match 2", () => {
|
||||||
|
expect(Math.ceil(3 / 2)).toBe(2);
|
||||||
|
expect(Math.ceil(4 / 2)).toBe(2);
|
||||||
|
});
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
it("R64 matches 31 and 32 feed R32 match 16", () => {
|
||||||
|
expect(Math.ceil(31 / 2)).toBe(16);
|
||||||
|
expect(Math.ceil(32 / 2)).toBe(16);
|
||||||
|
});
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
it("32 R64 matches produce exactly 16 R32 slots", () => {
|
||||||
|
const r32Slots = new Set<number>();
|
||||||
|
for (let i = 1; i <= 32; i++) r32Slots.add(Math.ceil(i / 2));
|
||||||
|
expect(r32Slots.size).toBe(16);
|
||||||
|
});
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
it("R32 match i uses 0-indexed winners at (i-1)*2 and (i-1)*2+1", () => {
|
||||||
|
for (let i = 1; i <= 16; i++) {
|
||||||
|
const p1 = (i - 1) * 2;
|
||||||
|
const p2 = (i - 1) * 2 + 1;
|
||||||
|
expect(p1).toBeGreaterThanOrEqual(0);
|
||||||
|
expect(p2).toBeLessThan(32);
|
||||||
|
}
|
||||||
|
});
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
it("S16 match i uses 0-indexed R32 winners at (i-1)*2 and (i-1)*2+1", () => {
|
||||||
|
for (let i = 1; i <= 8; i++) {
|
||||||
|
const p1 = (i - 1) * 2;
|
||||||
|
const p2 = (i - 1) * 2 + 1;
|
||||||
|
expect(p1).toBeGreaterThanOrEqual(0);
|
||||||
|
expect(p2).toBeLessThan(16);
|
||||||
|
}
|
||||||
|
});
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
it("E8 match i uses 0-indexed S16 winners at (i-1)*2 and (i-1)*2+1", () => {
|
||||||
|
for (let i = 1; i <= 4; i++) {
|
||||||
|
const p1 = (i - 1) * 2;
|
||||||
|
const p2 = (i - 1) * 2 + 1;
|
||||||
|
expect(p2).toBeLessThan(8);
|
||||||
|
}
|
||||||
|
});
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
it("FF match i uses 0-indexed E8 winners at (i-1)*2 and (i-1)*2+1", () => {
|
||||||
|
for (let i = 1; i <= 2; i++) {
|
||||||
|
const p1 = (i - 1) * 2;
|
||||||
|
const p2 = (i - 1) * 2 + 1;
|
||||||
|
expect(p2).toBeLessThan(4);
|
||||||
|
}
|
||||||
|
});
|
||||||
|
});
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
// ─── Probability bucket math ──────────────────────────────────────────────────
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
describe("NCAAW placement bucket probability math", () => {
|
||||||
|
const N = 50_000;
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
it("champion: count/N = 1.0 when a team wins every simulation", () => {
|
||||||
|
expect(N / N).toBeCloseTo(1.0, 10);
|
||||||
|
});
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
it("FF loser slots: count/(2*N) sums to 1.0 across teams whose counts total 2*N", () => {
|
||||||
|
// 2 FF losers per sim → total across all teams = 2*N
|
||||||
|
const counts = [N, N];
|
||||||
|
const sum = counts.reduce((s, c) => s + c / (2 * N), 0);
|
||||||
|
expect(sum).toBeCloseTo(1.0, 10);
|
||||||
|
});
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
it("E8 loser slots: count/(4*N) sums to 1.0 across teams whose counts total 4*N", () => {
|
||||||
|
const counts = [N, N, N, N];
|
||||||
|
const sum = counts.reduce((s, c) => s + c / (4 * N), 0);
|
||||||
|
expect(sum).toBeCloseTo(1.0, 10);
|
||||||
|
});
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
it("probThird equals probFourth for the same team (same ff count / 2N)", () => {
|
||||||
|
const ffCount = 12500;
|
||||||
|
const probThird = ffCount / (2 * N);
|
||||||
|
const probFourth = ffCount / (2 * N);
|
||||||
|
expect(probThird).toBe(probFourth);
|
||||||
|
});
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
it("probFifth through probEighth are equal for the same team (same e8 count / 4N)", () => {
|
||||||
|
const e8Count = 6250;
|
||||||
|
const probs = [e8Count / (4 * N), e8Count / (4 * N), e8Count / (4 * N), e8Count / (4 * N)];
|
||||||
|
expect(probs[0]).toBe(probs[1]);
|
||||||
|
expect(probs[1]).toBe(probs[2]);
|
||||||
|
expect(probs[2]).toBe(probs[3]);
|
||||||
|
});
|
||||||
|
});
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
// ─── EV alignment with scoring rules ─────────────────────────────────────────
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
describe("NCAAW EV calculation alignment with scoring rules", () => {
|
||||||
|
// DEFAULT_SCORING_RULES: Champion=100, Finalist=70, FF loser=45, E8 loser=20, rest=0
|
||||||
|
// (sum = 340; must match DEFAULT_SCORING_RULES in admin.sports-seasons.$id.simulate.tsx)
|
||||||
|
const SCORING = {
|
||||||
|
first: 100,
|
||||||
|
second: 70,
|
||||||
|
thirdFourth: 45,
|
||||||
|
fifthToEighth: 20,
|
||||||
|
};
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
function computeEV(probs: {
|
||||||
|
probFirst: number; probSecond: number;
|
||||||
|
probThird: number; probFourth: number;
|
||||||
|
probFifth: number; probSixth: number; probSeventh: number; probEighth: number;
|
||||||
|
}): number {
|
||||||
|
return (
|
||||||
|
probs.probFirst * SCORING.first +
|
||||||
|
probs.probSecond * SCORING.second +
|
||||||
|
probs.probThird * SCORING.thirdFourth +
|
||||||
|
probs.probFourth * SCORING.thirdFourth +
|
||||||
|
probs.probFifth * SCORING.fifthToEighth +
|
||||||
|
probs.probSixth * SCORING.fifthToEighth +
|
||||||
|
probs.probSeventh * SCORING.fifthToEighth +
|
||||||
|
probs.probEighth * SCORING.fifthToEighth
|
||||||
|
);
|
||||||
|
}
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
it("champion with probFirst=1 earns 100 EV", () => {
|
||||||
|
const probs = {
|
||||||
|
probFirst: 1, probSecond: 0, probThird: 0, probFourth: 0,
|
||||||
|
probFifth: 0, probSixth: 0, probSeventh: 0, probEighth: 0,
|
||||||
|
};
|
||||||
|
expect(computeEV(probs)).toBeCloseTo(100, 10);
|
||||||
|
});
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
it("finalist with probSecond=1 earns 70 EV", () => {
|
||||||
|
const probs = {
|
||||||
|
probFirst: 0, probSecond: 1, probThird: 0, probFourth: 0,
|
||||||
|
probFifth: 0, probSixth: 0, probSeventh: 0, probEighth: 0,
|
||||||
|
};
|
||||||
|
expect(computeEV(probs)).toBeCloseTo(70, 10);
|
||||||
|
});
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
it("confirmed FF loser (probThird=probFourth=0.5 each) earns 45 EV", () => {
|
||||||
|
const probs = {
|
||||||
|
probFirst: 0, probSecond: 0, probThird: 0.5, probFourth: 0.5,
|
||||||
|
probFifth: 0, probSixth: 0, probSeventh: 0, probEighth: 0,
|
||||||
|
};
|
||||||
|
expect(computeEV(probs)).toBeCloseTo(45, 10);
|
||||||
|
});
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
it("confirmed E8 loser (probFifth–Eighth=0.25 each) earns 20 EV", () => {
|
||||||
|
const probs = {
|
||||||
|
probFirst: 0, probSecond: 0, probThird: 0, probFourth: 0,
|
||||||
|
probFifth: 0.25, probSixth: 0.25, probSeventh: 0.25, probEighth: 0.25,
|
||||||
|
};
|
||||||
|
expect(computeEV(probs)).toBeCloseTo(20, 10);
|
||||||
|
});
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
it("R64 loser (all zeros) earns 0 EV", () => {
|
||||||
|
const probs = {
|
||||||
|
probFirst: 0, probSecond: 0, probThird: 0, probFourth: 0,
|
||||||
|
probFifth: 0, probSixth: 0, probSeventh: 0, probEighth: 0,
|
||||||
|
};
|
||||||
|
expect(computeEV(probs)).toBe(0);
|
||||||
|
});
|
||||||
|
});
|
||||||
643
app/services/simulations/ncaam-simulator.ts
Normal file
643
app/services/simulations/ncaam-simulator.ts
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,643 @@
|
||||||
|
/**
|
||||||
|
* NCAAM Tournament Bracket Simulator
|
||||||
|
*
|
||||||
|
* Monte Carlo simulation of the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament (64-team bracket).
|
||||||
|
* Win probability is derived from KenPom Adjusted Efficiency Margin (AEM).
|
||||||
|
*
|
||||||
|
* Algorithm:
|
||||||
|
* 1. Load the bracket scoring event and all playoff matches from DB
|
||||||
|
* (6 rounds: R64, R32, S16, E8, FF, Final — 63 total matches)
|
||||||
|
* 2. Load participant names from DB; look up KenPom net rating by name
|
||||||
|
* from the hardcoded KENPOM_NET_RATINGS map (updated each season)
|
||||||
|
* 3. Per-match win probability = 1 / (1 + exp(-(netrtgA - netrtgB) / 7.5))
|
||||||
|
* (neutral-court logistic formula, calibrated to KenPom AEM scale)
|
||||||
|
* 4. Simulate 50,000 tournaments, honoring completed match results
|
||||||
|
* 5. Track placements only for point-scoring rounds:
|
||||||
|
* - Champion (1st)
|
||||||
|
* - Finalist (2nd)
|
||||||
|
* - Final Four losers (3rd/4th) — 2 per sim
|
||||||
|
* - Elite Eight losers (5th–8th) — 4 per sim
|
||||||
|
* R64 / R32 / S16 exits score 0 points → not tracked
|
||||||
|
*
|
||||||
|
* Probability output (8 slots — same SimulationProbabilities type as UCL):
|
||||||
|
* probFirst = champion / N
|
||||||
|
* probSecond = finalist / N
|
||||||
|
* probThird/Fourth = ffLoser / (2 * N) — 2 FF losers per sim
|
||||||
|
* probFifth–Eighth = e8Loser / (4 * N) — 4 E8 losers per sim
|
||||||
|
* All pre-E8 exits → 0 (no points scored)
|
||||||
|
*
|
||||||
|
* Column sums are guaranteed to equal 1.0 by construction:
|
||||||
|
* probFirst/Second — 1 per sim, N total → sums to 1
|
||||||
|
* probThird/Fourth — 2 per sim, each column = total/2N → sum = 1
|
||||||
|
* probFifth–Eighth — 4 per sim, each column = total/4N → sum = 1
|
||||||
|
*
|
||||||
|
* KenPom net ratings are hardcoded in KENPOM_NET_RATINGS below (2025-26 season).
|
||||||
|
* Update this map each season. Participant names must match DB records
|
||||||
|
* (lookup is case-insensitive, whitespace-normalized).
|
||||||
|
* Unknown teams fall back to netrtg = 0.0 (near-average strength).
|
||||||
|
*
|
||||||
|
* Bracket advancement path (same as UCL):
|
||||||
|
* nextMatchNumber = Math.ceil(matchNumber / 2)
|
||||||
|
* i.e. R64 matches 1+2 → R32 match 1, R64 matches 3+4 → R32 match 2, …
|
||||||
|
*/
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
import { database } from "~/database/context";
|
||||||
|
import { eq, and, inArray } from "drizzle-orm";
|
||||||
|
import * as schema from "~/database/schema";
|
||||||
|
import type { BracketRegion } from "~/lib/bracket-templates";
|
||||||
|
import { buildNCAA68SlotMap, matchIndexForSeedSlot } from "~/lib/bracket-templates";
|
||||||
|
import type { Simulator, SimulationResult } from "./types";
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
// ─── Simulation parameters ────────────────────────────────────────────────────
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
const NUM_SIMULATIONS = 50_000;
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
/**
|
||||||
|
* KenPom scale factor for the neutral-court logistic win probability formula.
|
||||||
|
* A difference of 7.5 AEM points crosses the logit 50% mark.
|
||||||
|
* Source: KenPom documentation; widely used in academic NCAAM models.
|
||||||
|
*/
|
||||||
|
const KENPOM_SCALE_FACTOR = 7.5;
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
// ─── KenPom net rating data (2025-26 season) ─────────────────────────────────
|
||||||
|
//
|
||||||
|
// Update this map at the start of each tournament season with current
|
||||||
|
// KenPom Adjusted Efficiency Margin values.
|
||||||
|
// Source: kenpom.com, data through March 15, 2026 (6,195 games).
|
||||||
|
//
|
||||||
|
// Keys: lowercase, whitespace-normalized team names (normalizeTeamName output).
|
||||||
|
// Multiple aliases are included for common abbreviation variants.
|
||||||
|
// If a participant name is not found, it falls back to 0.0 (average strength).
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
const KENPOM_NET_RATINGS: Record<string, number> = {
|
||||||
|
// ── 1–10 ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
|
||||||
|
"duke": 38.90,
|
||||||
|
"arizona": 37.66,
|
||||||
|
"michigan": 37.59,
|
||||||
|
"florida": 33.79,
|
||||||
|
"houston": 33.43,
|
||||||
|
"iowa st.": 32.42, "iowa state": 32.42,
|
||||||
|
"illinois": 32.10,
|
||||||
|
"purdue": 31.20,
|
||||||
|
"michigan st.": 28.31, "michigan state": 28.31,
|
||||||
|
"gonzaga": 28.10,
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
// ── 11–30 ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
|
||||||
|
"connecticut": 27.87, "uconn": 27.87,
|
||||||
|
"vanderbilt": 27.51,
|
||||||
|
"virginia": 26.71,
|
||||||
|
"nebraska": 26.16,
|
||||||
|
"arkansas": 26.05,
|
||||||
|
"tennessee": 26.02,
|
||||||
|
"st. john's": 25.91, "st johns": 25.91,
|
||||||
|
"alabama": 25.72,
|
||||||
|
"louisville": 25.42,
|
||||||
|
"texas tech": 25.22,
|
||||||
|
"kansas": 24.44,
|
||||||
|
"wisconsin": 23.39,
|
||||||
|
"byu": 23.25,
|
||||||
|
"saint mary's": 23.07,
|
||||||
|
"iowa": 22.44,
|
||||||
|
"ohio st.": 22.24, "ohio state": 22.24,
|
||||||
|
"ucla": 21.67,
|
||||||
|
"kentucky": 21.48,
|
||||||
|
"north carolina": 20.84,
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
// ── 30–50 ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
|
||||||
|
"utah st.": 20.76, "utah state": 20.76,
|
||||||
|
"miami fl": 20.68, "miami (fl)": 20.68, "miami": 20.68,
|
||||||
|
"georgia": 20.48,
|
||||||
|
"villanova": 19.97,
|
||||||
|
"nc state": 19.60, "n.c. state": 19.60,
|
||||||
|
"santa clara": 19.40,
|
||||||
|
"clemson": 19.24,
|
||||||
|
"texas": 19.03,
|
||||||
|
"auburn": 19.02,
|
||||||
|
"texas a&m": 18.67,
|
||||||
|
"oklahoma": 18.37,
|
||||||
|
"saint louis": 18.32,
|
||||||
|
"smu": 18.09,
|
||||||
|
"tcu": 17.59,
|
||||||
|
"cincinnati": 17.49,
|
||||||
|
"vcu": 17.21,
|
||||||
|
"indiana": 17.18,
|
||||||
|
"south florida": 16.39, "usf": 16.39,
|
||||||
|
"san diego st.": 16.39, "san diego state": 16.39,
|
||||||
|
"baylor": 16.00,
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
// ── 50–80 ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
|
||||||
|
"new mexico": 15.81,
|
||||||
|
"seton hall": 15.71,
|
||||||
|
"missouri": 15.39,
|
||||||
|
"washington": 15.12,
|
||||||
|
"ucf": 15.04,
|
||||||
|
"virginia tech": 13.69,
|
||||||
|
"florida st.": 13.48, "florida state": 13.48,
|
||||||
|
"northwestern": 13.41,
|
||||||
|
"stanford": 13.37,
|
||||||
|
"west virginia": 13.27,
|
||||||
|
"lsu": 13.23,
|
||||||
|
"grand canyon": 13.19,
|
||||||
|
"boise st.": 13.18, "boise state": 13.18,
|
||||||
|
"tulsa": 12.97,
|
||||||
|
"akron": 12.80,
|
||||||
|
"ole miss": 12.62, "mississippi": 12.62,
|
||||||
|
"oklahoma st.": 12.58, "oklahoma state": 12.58,
|
||||||
|
"arizona st.": 12.52, "arizona state": 12.52,
|
||||||
|
"mcneese": 12.48, "mcneese st.": 12.48, "mcneese state": 12.48,
|
||||||
|
"belmont": 12.26,
|
||||||
|
"colorado": 12.11,
|
||||||
|
"providence": 11.81,
|
||||||
|
"northern iowa": 11.81,
|
||||||
|
"california": 11.43, "cal": 11.43,
|
||||||
|
"wake forest": 11.39,
|
||||||
|
"nevada": 11.30,
|
||||||
|
"creighton": 11.01,
|
||||||
|
"minnesota": 10.91,
|
||||||
|
"dayton": 10.91,
|
||||||
|
"georgetown": 10.89,
|
||||||
|
"usc": 10.81,
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
// ── 81–120 ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
|
||||||
|
"yale": 10.65,
|
||||||
|
"wichita st.": 9.78, "wichita state": 9.78,
|
||||||
|
"syracuse": 9.74,
|
||||||
|
"marquette": 9.66,
|
||||||
|
"george washington": 9.64, "gwu": 9.64,
|
||||||
|
"butler": 9.49,
|
||||||
|
"hofstra": 9.49,
|
||||||
|
"colorado st.": 9.49, "colorado state": 9.49,
|
||||||
|
"notre dame": 8.88,
|
||||||
|
"utah valley": 8.82,
|
||||||
|
"stephen f. austin": 8.43, "sf austin": 8.43,
|
||||||
|
"high point": 8.40,
|
||||||
|
"miami oh": 8.26, "miami (oh)": 8.26,
|
||||||
|
"pittsburgh": 7.60, "pitt": 7.60,
|
||||||
|
"south carolina": 7.54,
|
||||||
|
"george mason": 7.50,
|
||||||
|
"xavier": 7.47,
|
||||||
|
"wyoming": 7.40,
|
||||||
|
"oregon": 7.03,
|
||||||
|
"mississippi st.": 7.00, "mississippi state": 7.00,
|
||||||
|
"kansas st.": 6.98, "kansas state": 6.98,
|
||||||
|
"depaul": 6.83,
|
||||||
|
"illinois st.": 6.66, "illinois state": 6.66,
|
||||||
|
"uc irvine": 6.21,
|
||||||
|
"illinois chicago": 6.16, "uic": 6.16,
|
||||||
|
"cal baptist": 5.99,
|
||||||
|
"unlv": 5.97,
|
||||||
|
"hawaii": 5.97, "hawai'i": 5.97,
|
||||||
|
"st. thomas": 5.88,
|
||||||
|
"unc wilmington": 5.79, "uncw": 5.79, "nc wilmington": 5.79,
|
||||||
|
"sam houston": 5.56, "sam houston st.": 5.56, "sam houston state": 5.56,
|
||||||
|
"pacific": 5.42,
|
||||||
|
"north dakota st.": 5.13, "north dakota state": 5.13,
|
||||||
|
"davidson": 4.94,
|
||||||
|
"saint joseph's": 4.56,
|
||||||
|
"southern illinois": 4.55,
|
||||||
|
"uc san diego": 4.53, "ucsd": 4.53,
|
||||||
|
"seattle": 4.49,
|
||||||
|
"maryland": 4.25,
|
||||||
|
"san francisco": 4.20,
|
||||||
|
"murray st.": 4.12, "murray state": 4.12,
|
||||||
|
"bradley": 3.96,
|
||||||
|
"rutgers": 3.95,
|
||||||
|
"liberty": 3.90,
|
||||||
|
"utah": 3.65,
|
||||||
|
"uab": 3.46,
|
||||||
|
"duquesne": 3.45,
|
||||||
|
"florida atlantic": 3.31,
|
||||||
|
"uc santa barbara": 3.17, "ucsb": 3.17,
|
||||||
|
"toledo": 3.15,
|
||||||
|
"fresno st.": 3.09, "fresno state": 3.09,
|
||||||
|
"montana st.": 3.00, "montana state": 3.00,
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
// ── 134–170 (tournament bubble / auto-bid range) ─────────────────────────
|
||||||
|
"memphis": 2.52,
|
||||||
|
"rhode island": 2.47,
|
||||||
|
"north texas": 2.46,
|
||||||
|
"washington st.": 2.32, "washington state": 2.32,
|
||||||
|
"penn st.": 2.18, "penn state": 2.18,
|
||||||
|
"st. bonaventure": 2.17,
|
||||||
|
"wright st.": 2.04, "wright state": 2.04,
|
||||||
|
"northern colorado": 1.87,
|
||||||
|
"navy": 1.84,
|
||||||
|
"troy": 1.72,
|
||||||
|
"robert morris": 1.69,
|
||||||
|
"idaho": 1.53,
|
||||||
|
"portland st.": 1.52, "portland state": 1.52,
|
||||||
|
"bowling green": 1.51,
|
||||||
|
"kent st.": 1.50, "kent state": 1.50,
|
||||||
|
"william & mary": 1.49,
|
||||||
|
"penn": 1.47,
|
||||||
|
"arkansas st.": 1.39, "arkansas state": 1.39,
|
||||||
|
"harvard": 1.26,
|
||||||
|
"central arkansas": 1.25, "c arkansas": 1.25,
|
||||||
|
"winthrop": 1.13,
|
||||||
|
"western kentucky": 0.02, "western ky.": 0.02,
|
||||||
|
"kennesaw st.": 0.57, "kennesaw state": 0.57,
|
||||||
|
"cornell": 0.51,
|
||||||
|
"east tennessee st.": 0.44, "etsu": 0.44,
|
||||||
|
"eastern washington": 0.00, "east washington": 0.00,
|
||||||
|
"charleston": -0.19,
|
||||||
|
"austin peay": -0.28,
|
||||||
|
"merrimack": -0.83,
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
// ── 170–220 (low seeds / play-in range) ─────────────────────────────────
|
||||||
|
"montana": -1.72,
|
||||||
|
"umbc": -1.67,
|
||||||
|
"tennessee st.": -1.83, "tennessee state": -1.83,
|
||||||
|
"furman": -1.98,
|
||||||
|
"siena": -2.10,
|
||||||
|
"appalachian state": -2.33, "app state": -2.33,
|
||||||
|
"south alabama": -3.14,
|
||||||
|
"howard": -3.19,
|
||||||
|
"marshall": -3.19,
|
||||||
|
"samford": -3.93,
|
||||||
|
"liu": -3.95,
|
||||||
|
"lipscomb": -2.84,
|
||||||
|
"queens": -1.44,
|
||||||
|
"quinnipiac": -4.25,
|
||||||
|
"south dakota st.": -4.31, "south dakota state": -4.31,
|
||||||
|
"se missouri st.": -5.84, "southeast missouri state": -5.84,
|
||||||
|
"tennessee martin": -4.81, "ut martin": -4.81,
|
||||||
|
"vermont": -6.45,
|
||||||
|
"bethune": -6.60, "bethune-cookman": -6.60,
|
||||||
|
"colgate": -7.02,
|
||||||
|
"saint peter's": -7.51, "st. peter's": -7.51, "st peters": -7.51,
|
||||||
|
"mercer": -1.97,
|
||||||
|
"morehead st.": -10.35, "morehead state": -10.35,
|
||||||
|
"lehigh": -10.37,
|
||||||
|
"prairie view a&m": -10.69, "prairie view": -10.69,
|
||||||
|
"grambling": -11.78, "grambling st.": -11.78,
|
||||||
|
"central connecticut": -12.71, "c connecticut": -12.71,
|
||||||
|
"wagner": -12.68,
|
||||||
|
"norfolk st.": -15.38, "norfolk state": -15.38,
|
||||||
|
};
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
// ─── Public helpers (exported for unit testing) ───────────────────────────────
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
/** Normalize a team name for KenPom map lookup. */
|
||||||
|
export function normalizeTeamName(name: string): string {
|
||||||
|
return name.toLowerCase().trim().replace(/\s+/g, " ");
|
||||||
|
}
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
/** Look up KenPom AEM for a participant name. Returns 0.0 if not found. */
|
||||||
|
export function getNetRating(name: string): number {
|
||||||
|
return KENPOM_NET_RATINGS[normalizeTeamName(name)] ?? 0.0;
|
||||||
|
}
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
/**
|
||||||
|
* NCAAM neutral-court win probability using KenPom Adjusted Efficiency Margin.
|
||||||
|
* P(A beats B) = 1 / (1 + exp(-(netrtgA - netrtgB) / KENPOM_SCALE_FACTOR))
|
||||||
|
* Exported for unit testing.
|
||||||
|
*/
|
||||||
|
export function kenpomWinProbability(netrtgA: number, netrtgB: number): number {
|
||||||
|
return 1 / (1 + Math.exp(-(netrtgA - netrtgB) / KENPOM_SCALE_FACTOR));
|
||||||
|
}
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
// ─── Simulator ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
export class NCAAMSimulator implements Simulator {
|
||||||
|
async simulate(sportsSeasonId: string): Promise<SimulationResult[]> {
|
||||||
|
const db = database();
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
// 1. Find the bracket scoring event (playoff_game) for this sports season.
|
||||||
|
const bracketEvent = await db.query.scoringEvents.findFirst({
|
||||||
|
where: and(
|
||||||
|
eq(schema.scoringEvents.sportsSeasonId, sportsSeasonId),
|
||||||
|
eq(schema.scoringEvents.eventType, "playoff_game")
|
||||||
|
),
|
||||||
|
});
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
if (!bracketEvent) {
|
||||||
|
throw new Error(
|
||||||
|
`No bracket event found for sports season ${sportsSeasonId}. ` +
|
||||||
|
`Create a playoff_game scoring event and set up the 64-team bracket first.`
|
||||||
|
);
|
||||||
|
}
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
// 2. Load all playoff matches for this bracket event.
|
||||||
|
const allMatches = await db.query.playoffMatches.findMany({
|
||||||
|
where: eq(schema.playoffMatches.scoringEventId, bracketEvent.id),
|
||||||
|
orderBy: (m, { asc }) => [asc(m.matchNumber)],
|
||||||
|
});
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
if (allMatches.length === 0) {
|
||||||
|
throw new Error(
|
||||||
|
`No playoff matches found for the bracket event. ` +
|
||||||
|
`Generate the 64-team bracket from the admin panel first.`
|
||||||
|
);
|
||||||
|
}
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
// 3. Group matches by round name.
|
||||||
|
// Rounds: "First Four" (optional, 4) | "Round of 64" (32) | "Round of 32" (16)
|
||||||
|
// | "Sweet Sixteen" (8) | "Elite Eight" (4) | "Final Four" (2) | "Championship" (1)
|
||||||
|
//
|
||||||
|
// We look up by name rather than sorting by count to avoid the ambiguity between
|
||||||
|
// "First Four" and "Elite Eight" (both 4 matches).
|
||||||
|
const byRound = new Map<string, typeof allMatches>();
|
||||||
|
for (const m of allMatches) {
|
||||||
|
if (!byRound.has(m.round)) byRound.set(m.round, []);
|
||||||
|
byRound.get(m.round)!.push(m);
|
||||||
|
}
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
const sortByMatchNumber = (matches: typeof allMatches) =>
|
||||||
|
[...matches].sort((a, b) => a.matchNumber - b.matchNumber);
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
const firstFourMatches = byRound.has("First Four") ? sortByMatchNumber(byRound.get("First Four")!) : [];
|
||||||
|
const r64Matches = byRound.has("Round of 64") ? sortByMatchNumber(byRound.get("Round of 64")!) : null;
|
||||||
|
const r32Matches = byRound.has("Round of 32") ? sortByMatchNumber(byRound.get("Round of 32")!) : null;
|
||||||
|
const s16Matches = byRound.has("Sweet Sixteen") ? sortByMatchNumber(byRound.get("Sweet Sixteen")!) : null;
|
||||||
|
const e8Matches = byRound.has("Elite Eight") ? sortByMatchNumber(byRound.get("Elite Eight")!) : null;
|
||||||
|
const ffMatches = byRound.has("Final Four") ? sortByMatchNumber(byRound.get("Final Four")!) : null;
|
||||||
|
const champMatches = byRound.has("Championship") ? sortByMatchNumber(byRound.get("Championship")!) : null;
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
if (!r64Matches || !r32Matches || !s16Matches || !e8Matches || !ffMatches || !champMatches) {
|
||||||
|
const found = [...byRound.keys()].join(", ");
|
||||||
|
throw new Error(
|
||||||
|
`Missing expected rounds. Found: [${found}]. ` +
|
||||||
|
`Required: Round of 64, Round of 32, Sweet Sixteen, Elite Eight, Final Four, Championship.`
|
||||||
|
);
|
||||||
|
}
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
if (r64Matches.length !== 32) {
|
||||||
|
throw new Error(
|
||||||
|
`Expected 32 Round of 64 matches, found ${r64Matches.length}. ` +
|
||||||
|
`This simulator only supports the standard 64-team NCAAM format.`
|
||||||
|
);
|
||||||
|
}
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
// 4. Build the First Four → Round of 64 slot mapping (if First Four games exist).
|
||||||
|
//
|
||||||
|
// First Four match N feeds into R64 match:
|
||||||
|
// regionIndex * 8 + matchIndexForSeedSlot(seedSlot) + 1
|
||||||
|
// This mirrors the advanceFirstFourWinner() logic in playoff-match.ts.
|
||||||
|
//
|
||||||
|
// The region config is stored on the scoring event (bracketRegionConfig) so
|
||||||
|
// per-event overrides are respected. Falls back to the ncaa_68 template default.
|
||||||
|
//
|
||||||
|
// ffToR64: Map<firstFourMatchNumber, r64MatchNumber>
|
||||||
|
// r64NullSlots: Set of R64 match numbers whose participant2Id is null (pending FF)
|
||||||
|
const ffToR64 = new Map<number, number>();
|
||||||
|
const r64NullSlots = new Set<number>(
|
||||||
|
r64Matches.filter((m) => !m.participant2Id).map((m) => m.matchNumber)
|
||||||
|
);
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
if (firstFourMatches.length > 0) {
|
||||||
|
const regions =
|
||||||
|
(bracketEvent.bracketRegionConfig as BracketRegion[] | null) ??
|
||||||
|
// Default ncaa_68 regions if no override stored
|
||||||
|
[
|
||||||
|
{ name: "East", directSeeds: [1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16], playIns: [] },
|
||||||
|
{ name: "South", directSeeds: [1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15], playIns: [{ seedSlot: 16, teams: 2 }] },
|
||||||
|
{ name: "West", directSeeds: [1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,12,13,14,15,16], playIns: [{ seedSlot: 11, teams: 2 }] },
|
||||||
|
{ name: "Midwest", directSeeds: [1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,12,13,14,15], playIns: [{ seedSlot: 11, teams: 2 }, { seedSlot: 16, teams: 2 }] },
|
||||||
|
];
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
const slotMap = buildNCAA68SlotMap(regions);
|
||||||
|
for (let i = 0; i < slotMap.playInOffsets.length; i++) {
|
||||||
|
const { regionIndex, seedSlot } = slotMap.playInOffsets[i];
|
||||||
|
const r64MatchNumber = regionIndex * 8 + matchIndexForSeedSlot(seedSlot) + 1;
|
||||||
|
ffToR64.set(i + 1, r64MatchNumber); // First Four matchNumbers are 1-based
|
||||||
|
}
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
// Validate First Four matches have participants before simulation
|
||||||
|
for (const m of firstFourMatches) {
|
||||||
|
if (!m.participant1Id || !m.participant2Id) {
|
||||||
|
throw new Error(
|
||||||
|
`First Four match ${m.matchNumber} is missing participants. ` +
|
||||||
|
`Assign both teams before running simulation.`
|
||||||
|
);
|
||||||
|
}
|
||||||
|
}
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
// Validate First Four → R64 mapping covers exactly the null R64 slots.
|
||||||
|
const r64SlotsCoveredByFF = new Set(ffToR64.values());
|
||||||
|
for (const nullSlot of r64NullSlots) {
|
||||||
|
if (!r64SlotsCoveredByFF.has(nullSlot)) {
|
||||||
|
throw new Error(
|
||||||
|
`Round of 64 match ${nullSlot} has no participant2 but is not covered ` +
|
||||||
|
`by any First Four mapping. Check the bracket configuration.`
|
||||||
|
);
|
||||||
|
}
|
||||||
|
}
|
||||||
|
for (const ffR64Slot of r64SlotsCoveredByFF) {
|
||||||
|
if (!r64NullSlots.has(ffR64Slot)) {
|
||||||
|
throw new Error(
|
||||||
|
`First Four maps to Round of 64 match ${ffR64Slot}, but that slot is ` +
|
||||||
|
`already filled. Check the bracket configuration.`
|
||||||
|
);
|
||||||
|
}
|
||||||
|
}
|
||||||
|
} else {
|
||||||
|
// No First Four — all R64 slots must be directly filled
|
||||||
|
for (const m of r64Matches) {
|
||||||
|
if (!m.participant1Id || !m.participant2Id) {
|
||||||
|
throw new Error(
|
||||||
|
`Round of 64 match ${m.matchNumber} is missing participants. ` +
|
||||||
|
`Assign all 64 teams to the bracket before running simulation.`
|
||||||
|
);
|
||||||
|
}
|
||||||
|
}
|
||||||
|
}
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
// 5. Collect all participant IDs (up to 68 when First Four is present).
|
||||||
|
// R64 direct slots (60 or 64) + First Four teams (8) — First Four losers get
|
||||||
|
// all-zero probabilities since they don't enter the scored rounds.
|
||||||
|
const participantIdSet = new Set<string>();
|
||||||
|
for (const m of r64Matches) {
|
||||||
|
if (m.participant1Id) participantIdSet.add(m.participant1Id);
|
||||||
|
if (m.participant2Id) participantIdSet.add(m.participant2Id);
|
||||||
|
}
|
||||||
|
for (const m of firstFourMatches) {
|
||||||
|
if (m.participant1Id) participantIdSet.add(m.participant1Id);
|
||||||
|
if (m.participant2Id) participantIdSet.add(m.participant2Id);
|
||||||
|
}
|
||||||
|
const participantIds = [...participantIdSet];
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
// 6. Load participant names from DB; build net rating lookup by ID.
|
||||||
|
const participantRows = await db
|
||||||
|
.select({ id: schema.participants.id, name: schema.participants.name })
|
||||||
|
.from(schema.participants)
|
||||||
|
.where(inArray(schema.participants.id, participantIds));
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
const netRatingById = new Map<string, number>();
|
||||||
|
for (const { id, name } of participantRows) {
|
||||||
|
netRatingById.set(id, getNetRating(name));
|
||||||
|
}
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
// 7. Build per-round O(1) lookup maps keyed by matchNumber.
|
||||||
|
const firstFourByNum = new Map(firstFourMatches.map((m) => [m.matchNumber, m]));
|
||||||
|
const r64ByNum = new Map(r64Matches.map((m) => [m.matchNumber, m]));
|
||||||
|
const r32ByNum = new Map(r32Matches.map((m) => [m.matchNumber, m]));
|
||||||
|
const s16ByNum = new Map(s16Matches.map((m) => [m.matchNumber, m]));
|
||||||
|
const e8ByNum = new Map(e8Matches.map((m) => [m.matchNumber, m]));
|
||||||
|
const ffByNum = new Map(ffMatches.map((m) => [m.matchNumber, m]));
|
||||||
|
const champMatch = champMatches[0];
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
// ─── Helpers ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
const simMatch = (p1: string, p2: string): { winner: string; loser: string } => {
|
||||||
|
const r1 = netRatingById.get(p1) ?? 0;
|
||||||
|
const r2 = netRatingById.get(p2) ?? 0;
|
||||||
|
const w = Math.random() < kenpomWinProbability(r1, r2) ? p1 : p2;
|
||||||
|
return { winner: w, loser: w === p1 ? p2 : p1 };
|
||||||
|
};
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
// 8. Integer placement count maps — initialized to 0 for all participants.
|
||||||
|
const championCounts = new Map<string, number>(participantIds.map((id) => [id, 0]));
|
||||||
|
const finalistCounts = new Map<string, number>(participantIds.map((id) => [id, 0]));
|
||||||
|
const ffLoserCounts = new Map<string, number>(participantIds.map((id) => [id, 0]));
|
||||||
|
const e8LoserCounts = new Map<string, number>(participantIds.map((id) => [id, 0]));
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
// 9. Monte Carlo simulation loop.
|
||||||
|
for (let s = 0; s < NUM_SIMULATIONS; s++) {
|
||||||
|
// ── First Four (4 play-in games → 4 winners placed into R64 slots) ───
|
||||||
|
// ffSimWinners: Map<r64MatchNumber, winnerId> for the null participant2Id slots
|
||||||
|
const ffSimWinners = new Map<number, string>();
|
||||||
|
for (const [ffMatchNum, r64MatchNum] of ffToR64) {
|
||||||
|
const m = firstFourByNum.get(ffMatchNum)!;
|
||||||
|
const winner = m.isComplete && m.winnerId
|
||||||
|
? m.winnerId
|
||||||
|
: simMatch(m.participant1Id!, m.participant2Id!).winner;
|
||||||
|
ffSimWinners.set(r64MatchNum, winner);
|
||||||
|
}
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
// ── Round of 64 (32 matches → 32 winners) ────────────────────────────
|
||||||
|
const r64Winners: string[] = [];
|
||||||
|
for (let i = 1; i <= 32; i++) {
|
||||||
|
const m = r64ByNum.get(i)!;
|
||||||
|
// participant2Id may be null if this slot is filled by a First Four winner
|
||||||
|
const p2 = m.participant2Id ?? ffSimWinners.get(i) ?? null;
|
||||||
|
if (m.isComplete && m.winnerId) {
|
||||||
|
r64Winners.push(m.winnerId);
|
||||||
|
} else {
|
||||||
|
r64Winners.push(simMatch(m.participant1Id!, p2!).winner);
|
||||||
|
}
|
||||||
|
}
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
// ── Round of 32 (16 matches → 16 winners) ────────────────────────────
|
||||||
|
// Match i uses r64Winners[(i-1)*2] and [(i-1)*2+1]
|
||||||
|
const r32Winners: string[] = [];
|
||||||
|
for (let i = 1; i <= 16; i++) {
|
||||||
|
const dbMatch = r32ByNum.get(i);
|
||||||
|
if (dbMatch?.isComplete && dbMatch.winnerId) {
|
||||||
|
r32Winners.push(dbMatch.winnerId);
|
||||||
|
} else {
|
||||||
|
const p1 = r64Winners[(i - 1) * 2];
|
||||||
|
const p2 = r64Winners[(i - 1) * 2 + 1];
|
||||||
|
r32Winners.push(simMatch(p1, p2).winner);
|
||||||
|
}
|
||||||
|
}
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
// ── Sweet 16 (8 matches → 8 winners) ─────────────────────────────────
|
||||||
|
const s16Winners: string[] = [];
|
||||||
|
for (let i = 1; i <= 8; i++) {
|
||||||
|
const dbMatch = s16ByNum.get(i);
|
||||||
|
if (dbMatch?.isComplete && dbMatch.winnerId) {
|
||||||
|
s16Winners.push(dbMatch.winnerId);
|
||||||
|
} else {
|
||||||
|
const p1 = r32Winners[(i - 1) * 2];
|
||||||
|
const p2 = r32Winners[(i - 1) * 2 + 1];
|
||||||
|
s16Winners.push(simMatch(p1, p2).winner);
|
||||||
|
}
|
||||||
|
}
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
// ── Elite Eight (4 matches → 4 winners + 4 tracked losers) ───────────
|
||||||
|
const e8Winners: string[] = [];
|
||||||
|
for (let i = 1; i <= 4; i++) {
|
||||||
|
const dbMatch = e8ByNum.get(i);
|
||||||
|
let winner: string;
|
||||||
|
let loser: string;
|
||||||
|
if (dbMatch?.isComplete && dbMatch.winnerId && dbMatch.loserId) {
|
||||||
|
winner = dbMatch.winnerId;
|
||||||
|
loser = dbMatch.loserId;
|
||||||
|
} else {
|
||||||
|
const p1 = s16Winners[(i - 1) * 2];
|
||||||
|
const p2 = s16Winners[(i - 1) * 2 + 1];
|
||||||
|
({ winner, loser } = simMatch(p1, p2));
|
||||||
|
}
|
||||||
|
e8Winners.push(winner);
|
||||||
|
e8LoserCounts.set(loser, (e8LoserCounts.get(loser) ?? 0) + 1);
|
||||||
|
}
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
// ── Final Four (2 matches → 2 winners + 2 tracked losers) ────────────
|
||||||
|
const ffWinners: string[] = [];
|
||||||
|
for (let i = 1; i <= 2; i++) {
|
||||||
|
const dbMatch = ffByNum.get(i);
|
||||||
|
let winner: string;
|
||||||
|
let loser: string;
|
||||||
|
if (dbMatch?.isComplete && dbMatch.winnerId && dbMatch.loserId) {
|
||||||
|
winner = dbMatch.winnerId;
|
||||||
|
loser = dbMatch.loserId;
|
||||||
|
} else {
|
||||||
|
const p1 = e8Winners[(i - 1) * 2];
|
||||||
|
const p2 = e8Winners[(i - 1) * 2 + 1];
|
||||||
|
({ winner, loser } = simMatch(p1, p2));
|
||||||
|
}
|
||||||
|
ffWinners.push(winner);
|
||||||
|
ffLoserCounts.set(loser, (ffLoserCounts.get(loser) ?? 0) + 1);
|
||||||
|
}
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
// ── Championship ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────
|
||||||
|
let champion: string;
|
||||||
|
let finalist: string;
|
||||||
|
if (champMatch?.isComplete && champMatch.winnerId && champMatch.loserId) {
|
||||||
|
champion = champMatch.winnerId;
|
||||||
|
finalist = champMatch.loserId;
|
||||||
|
} else {
|
||||||
|
({ winner: champion, loser: finalist } = simMatch(ffWinners[0], ffWinners[1]));
|
||||||
|
}
|
||||||
|
championCounts.set(champion, (championCounts.get(champion) ?? 0) + 1);
|
||||||
|
finalistCounts.set(finalist, (finalistCounts.get(finalist) ?? 0) + 1);
|
||||||
|
}
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
// 9. Convert integer counts to probability distributions.
|
||||||
|
// Exact denominators guarantee column sums of 1.0 by construction:
|
||||||
|
// probFirst/Second → N total per sim → sum = 1
|
||||||
|
// probThird/Fourth → ffLoserCounts / (2*N) → 2 losers * 1/(2N) = 1
|
||||||
|
// probFifth–Eighth → e8LoserCounts / (4*N) → 4 losers * 1/(4N) = 1
|
||||||
|
const N = NUM_SIMULATIONS;
|
||||||
|
const results: SimulationResult[] = participantIds.map((participantId) => {
|
||||||
|
const c = championCounts.get(participantId)!;
|
||||||
|
const f = finalistCounts.get(participantId)!;
|
||||||
|
const ff = ffLoserCounts.get(participantId)!;
|
||||||
|
const e8 = e8LoserCounts.get(participantId)!;
|
||||||
|
return {
|
||||||
|
participantId,
|
||||||
|
probabilities: {
|
||||||
|
probFirst: c / N,
|
||||||
|
probSecond: f / N,
|
||||||
|
probThird: ff / (2 * N),
|
||||||
|
probFourth: ff / (2 * N),
|
||||||
|
probFifth: e8 / (4 * N),
|
||||||
|
probSixth: e8 / (4 * N),
|
||||||
|
probSeventh: e8 / (4 * N),
|
||||||
|
probEighth: e8 / (4 * N),
|
||||||
|
},
|
||||||
|
source: "ncaam_bracket_kenpom",
|
||||||
|
};
|
||||||
|
});
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
// 10. Per-position normalization — belt-and-suspenders guard against
|
||||||
|
// floating-point residuals. Column sums are already near-exactly 1.0
|
||||||
|
// after step 9, but this guarantees the invariant before persisting.
|
||||||
|
const positionKeys: Array<keyof (typeof results)[0]["probabilities"]> = [
|
||||||
|
"probFirst", "probSecond", "probThird", "probFourth",
|
||||||
|
"probFifth", "probSixth", "probSeventh", "probEighth",
|
||||||
|
];
|
||||||
|
for (const key of positionKeys) {
|
||||||
|
const colSum = results.reduce((s, r) => s + r.probabilities[key], 0);
|
||||||
|
const residual = 1.0 - colSum;
|
||||||
|
if (residual !== 0) {
|
||||||
|
const maxResult = results.reduce((best, r) =>
|
||||||
|
r.probabilities[key] > best.probabilities[key] ? r : best
|
||||||
|
);
|
||||||
|
maxResult.probabilities[key] += residual;
|
||||||
|
}
|
||||||
|
}
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
return results;
|
||||||
|
}
|
||||||
|
}
|
||||||
597
app/services/simulations/ncaaw-simulator.ts
Normal file
597
app/services/simulations/ncaaw-simulator.ts
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,597 @@
|
||||||
|
/**
|
||||||
|
* NCAAW Tournament Bracket Simulator
|
||||||
|
*
|
||||||
|
* Monte Carlo simulation of the NCAA Women's Basketball Tournament (64-team bracket).
|
||||||
|
* Win probability is derived from Barttorvik Barthag ratings using the Log5 formula.
|
||||||
|
*
|
||||||
|
* Algorithm:
|
||||||
|
* 1. Load the bracket scoring event and all playoff matches from DB
|
||||||
|
* (6 rounds: R64, R32, S16, E8, FF, Final — 63 total matches)
|
||||||
|
* 2. Load participant names from DB; look up Barthag rating by name
|
||||||
|
* from the hardcoded BARTHAG_RATINGS map (updated each season)
|
||||||
|
* 3. Per-match win probability = Log5: A*(1-B) / (A*(1-B) + B*(1-A))
|
||||||
|
* (Barthag is on a 0–1 scale: probability of beating an average D-I opponent)
|
||||||
|
* 4. Simulate 50,000 tournaments, honoring completed match results
|
||||||
|
* 5. Track placements only for point-scoring rounds:
|
||||||
|
* - Champion (1st)
|
||||||
|
* - Finalist (2nd)
|
||||||
|
* - Final Four losers (3rd/4th) — 2 per sim
|
||||||
|
* - Elite Eight losers (5th–8th) — 4 per sim
|
||||||
|
* R64 / R32 / S16 exits score 0 points → not tracked
|
||||||
|
*
|
||||||
|
* Probability output (8 slots — same SimulationProbabilities type as NCAAM/UCL):
|
||||||
|
* probFirst = champion / N
|
||||||
|
* probSecond = finalist / N
|
||||||
|
* probThird/Fourth = ffLoser / (2 * N) — 2 FF losers per sim
|
||||||
|
* probFifth–Eighth = e8Loser / (4 * N) — 4 E8 losers per sim
|
||||||
|
* All pre-E8 exits → 0 (no points scored)
|
||||||
|
*
|
||||||
|
* Column sums are guaranteed to equal 1.0 by construction (same invariant as NCAAM).
|
||||||
|
*
|
||||||
|
* Barthag ratings are hardcoded in BARTHAG_RATINGS below (2025-26 season).
|
||||||
|
* Source: barttorvik.com/ncaaw — update each season before running simulations.
|
||||||
|
* Keys are lowercase, whitespace-normalized team names.
|
||||||
|
* Unknown teams fall back to BARTHAG_FALLBACK = 0.5 (average D-I strength).
|
||||||
|
*
|
||||||
|
* Win probability formula — Log5 (Bill James):
|
||||||
|
* P(A beats B) = A*(1−B) / (A*(1−B) + B*(1−A))
|
||||||
|
* Property: barthagWinProbability(x, 0.5) === x (definition of Barthag)
|
||||||
|
* Property: barthagWinProbability(A, B) + barthagWinProbability(B, A) === 1
|
||||||
|
*/
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
import { database } from "~/database/context";
|
||||||
|
import { eq, and, inArray } from "drizzle-orm";
|
||||||
|
import * as schema from "~/database/schema";
|
||||||
|
import type { BracketRegion } from "~/lib/bracket-templates";
|
||||||
|
import { buildNCAA68SlotMap, matchIndexForSeedSlot } from "~/lib/bracket-templates";
|
||||||
|
import type { Simulator, SimulationResult } from "./types";
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
// ─── Simulation parameters ────────────────────────────────────────────────────
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
const NUM_SIMULATIONS = 50_000;
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
/**
|
||||||
|
* Fallback Barthag for unknown team names.
|
||||||
|
* 0.5 = exactly average D-I opponent (unlike KenPom AEM where 0 = average).
|
||||||
|
*/
|
||||||
|
const BARTHAG_FALLBACK = 0.5;
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
// ─── Barttorvik Barthag ratings (2025-26 NCAAW season) ────────────────────────
|
||||||
|
//
|
||||||
|
// Source: barttorvik.com/ncaaw, data through March 15, 2026.
|
||||||
|
// Update this map at the start of each tournament season.
|
||||||
|
//
|
||||||
|
// Barthag is on a 0–1 scale: the probability of beating an average D-I team.
|
||||||
|
// Strong teams are near 1.0; weak teams near 0.0; average is 0.5.
|
||||||
|
//
|
||||||
|
// Keys: lowercase, whitespace-normalized (same as normalizeTeamName output).
|
||||||
|
// Multiple aliases for common abbreviation variants.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
const BARTHAG_RATINGS: Record<string, number> = {
|
||||||
|
// ── 1–10 ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
|
||||||
|
"connecticut": 0.9996, "uconn": 0.9996,
|
||||||
|
"ucla": 0.9991,
|
||||||
|
"texas": 0.9988,
|
||||||
|
"south carolina": 0.9986,
|
||||||
|
"lsu": 0.9977,
|
||||||
|
"michigan": 0.9952,
|
||||||
|
"duke": 0.9936,
|
||||||
|
"minnesota": 0.9914,
|
||||||
|
"iowa": 0.9907,
|
||||||
|
"vanderbilt": 0.9906,
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
// ── 11–30 ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
|
||||||
|
"louisville": 0.9904,
|
||||||
|
"maryland": 0.9893,
|
||||||
|
"ohio st.": 0.9892, "ohio state": 0.9892,
|
||||||
|
"oklahoma": 0.9886,
|
||||||
|
"tcu": 0.9885,
|
||||||
|
"west virginia": 0.9882,
|
||||||
|
"kentucky": 0.9880,
|
||||||
|
"north carolina": 0.9864,
|
||||||
|
"washington": 0.9834,
|
||||||
|
"usc": 0.9824,
|
||||||
|
"mississippi": 0.9821, "ole miss": 0.9821,
|
||||||
|
"michigan st.": 0.9817, "michigan state": 0.9817,
|
||||||
|
"notre dame": 0.9803,
|
||||||
|
"tennessee": 0.9799,
|
||||||
|
"n.c. state": 0.9766, "nc state": 0.9766,
|
||||||
|
"nebraska": 0.9751,
|
||||||
|
"villanova": 0.9745,
|
||||||
|
"oregon": 0.9741,
|
||||||
|
"alabama": 0.9720,
|
||||||
|
"texas tech": 0.9717,
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
// ── 31–50 ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
|
||||||
|
"illinois": 0.9710,
|
||||||
|
"georgia": 0.9710,
|
||||||
|
"oklahoma st.": 0.9672, "oklahoma state": 0.9672,
|
||||||
|
"iowa st.": 0.9666, "iowa state": 0.9666,
|
||||||
|
"baylor": 0.9639,
|
||||||
|
"colorado": 0.9615,
|
||||||
|
"virginia tech": 0.9589,
|
||||||
|
"florida": 0.9519,
|
||||||
|
"syracuse": 0.9502,
|
||||||
|
"virginia": 0.9437,
|
||||||
|
"stanford": 0.9407,
|
||||||
|
"mississippi st.": 0.9407, "mississippi state": 0.9407,
|
||||||
|
"james madison": 0.9374,
|
||||||
|
"richmond": 0.9341,
|
||||||
|
"arizona st.": 0.9331, "arizona state": 0.9331,
|
||||||
|
"indiana": 0.9309,
|
||||||
|
"california": 0.9268, "cal": 0.9268,
|
||||||
|
"kansas": 0.9259,
|
||||||
|
"clemson": 0.9219,
|
||||||
|
"princeton": 0.9202,
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
// ── 51–70 ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
|
||||||
|
"texas a&m": 0.9201,
|
||||||
|
"south dakota st.": 0.9187, "south dakota state": 0.9187,
|
||||||
|
"kansas st.": 0.9122, "kansas state": 0.9122,
|
||||||
|
"utah": 0.9076,
|
||||||
|
"byu": 0.8991,
|
||||||
|
"seton hall": 0.8978,
|
||||||
|
"marquette": 0.8922,
|
||||||
|
"rhode island": 0.8912,
|
||||||
|
"fairfield": 0.8902,
|
||||||
|
"georgia tech": 0.8887,
|
||||||
|
"columbia": 0.8884,
|
||||||
|
"gonzaga": 0.8849,
|
||||||
|
"george mason": 0.8834,
|
||||||
|
"north dakota st.": 0.8796, "north dakota state": 0.8796,
|
||||||
|
"miami fl": 0.8772, "miami (fl)": 0.8772, "miami": 0.8772,
|
||||||
|
"montana st.": 0.8643, "montana state": 0.8643,
|
||||||
|
"harvard": 0.8604,
|
||||||
|
"creighton": 0.8594,
|
||||||
|
"wisconsin": 0.8585,
|
||||||
|
"colorado st.": 0.8563, "colorado state": 0.8563,
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
// ── 71–100 ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
|
||||||
|
"penn st.": 0.8471, "penn state": 0.8471,
|
||||||
|
"miami oh": 0.8420, "miami (oh)": 0.8420,
|
||||||
|
"san diego st.": 0.8362, "san diego state": 0.8362,
|
||||||
|
"purdue": 0.8357,
|
||||||
|
"south florida": 0.8343, "usf": 0.8343,
|
||||||
|
"georgetown": 0.8325,
|
||||||
|
"missouri": 0.8318,
|
||||||
|
"georgia southern": 0.8275,
|
||||||
|
"oregon st.": 0.8200, "oregon state": 0.8200,
|
||||||
|
"unlv": 0.8117,
|
||||||
|
"rice": 0.8109,
|
||||||
|
"st. john's": 0.8095, "st johns": 0.8095,
|
||||||
|
"davidson": 0.8093,
|
||||||
|
"ball st.": 0.8071, "ball state": 0.8071,
|
||||||
|
"auburn": 0.7978,
|
||||||
|
"louisiana tech": 0.7977,
|
||||||
|
"troy": 0.7932,
|
||||||
|
"green bay": 0.7872, "wi-green bay": 0.7872,
|
||||||
|
"idaho": 0.7859,
|
||||||
|
"santa clara": 0.7824,
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
// ── 101–130 ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
|
||||||
|
"uc irvine": 0.7788,
|
||||||
|
"mcneese st.": 0.7716, "mcneese state": 0.7716, "mcneese": 0.7716,
|
||||||
|
"cincinnati": 0.7677,
|
||||||
|
"vermont": 0.7658,
|
||||||
|
"quinnipiac": 0.7633,
|
||||||
|
"saint joseph's": 0.7627,
|
||||||
|
"loyola marymount": 0.7600, "lmu": 0.7600,
|
||||||
|
"north texas": 0.7509,
|
||||||
|
"florida st.": 0.7498, "florida state": 0.7498,
|
||||||
|
"massachusetts": 0.7479, "umass": 0.7479,
|
||||||
|
"murray st.": 0.7431, "murray state": 0.7431,
|
||||||
|
"arkansas st.": 0.7412, "arkansas state": 0.7412,
|
||||||
|
"arkansas": 0.7353,
|
||||||
|
"lindenwood": 0.7312,
|
||||||
|
"butler": 0.7254,
|
||||||
|
"western illinois": 0.7238,
|
||||||
|
"arizona": 0.7023,
|
||||||
|
"abilene christian": 0.7016,
|
||||||
|
"hawaii": 0.6995, "hawai'i": 0.6995,
|
||||||
|
"new mexico": 0.6988,
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
// ── 131–160 ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
|
||||||
|
"northwestern": 0.6979,
|
||||||
|
"uc san diego": 0.6846, "ucsd": 0.6846,
|
||||||
|
"cal baptist": 0.6822,
|
||||||
|
"boise st.": 0.6809, "boise state": 0.6809,
|
||||||
|
"central arkansas": 0.6775,
|
||||||
|
"providence": 0.6717,
|
||||||
|
"southern indiana": 0.6702,
|
||||||
|
"belmont": 0.6688,
|
||||||
|
"portland": 0.6683,
|
||||||
|
"pepperdine": 0.6626,
|
||||||
|
"eastern kentucky": 0.6587,
|
||||||
|
"wake forest": 0.6571,
|
||||||
|
"charleston": 0.6484,
|
||||||
|
"marshall": 0.6442,
|
||||||
|
"utsa": 0.6431,
|
||||||
|
"navy": 0.6349,
|
||||||
|
"missouri st.": 0.6208, "missouri state": 0.6208,
|
||||||
|
"fairleigh dickinson": 0.6201,
|
||||||
|
"penn": 0.6159,
|
||||||
|
"east carolina": 0.6154,
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
// ── 161–200 ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
|
||||||
|
"south dakota": 0.6144,
|
||||||
|
"purdue fort wayne": 0.6117,
|
||||||
|
"grand canyon": 0.6115,
|
||||||
|
"northern colorado": 0.6111,
|
||||||
|
"rutgers": 0.6040,
|
||||||
|
"liberty": 0.5964,
|
||||||
|
"northern iowa": 0.5920,
|
||||||
|
"temple": 0.5911,
|
||||||
|
"uc santa barbara": 0.5869, "ucsb": 0.5869,
|
||||||
|
"brown": 0.5869,
|
||||||
|
"ohio": 0.5867,
|
||||||
|
"xavier": 0.5837,
|
||||||
|
"central michigan": 0.5804,
|
||||||
|
"idaho st.": 0.5792, "idaho state": 0.5792,
|
||||||
|
"army": 0.5724,
|
||||||
|
"jacksonville": 0.5719,
|
||||||
|
"cleveland st.": 0.5710, "cleveland state": 0.5710,
|
||||||
|
"ucf": 0.5702,
|
||||||
|
"old dominion": 0.5666,
|
||||||
|
"youngstown st.": 0.5643, "youngstown state": 0.5643,
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
// ── 200+ (low seeds / play-in range) ────────────────────────────────────
|
||||||
|
"holy cross": 0.5153,
|
||||||
|
"high point": 0.5091,
|
||||||
|
"howard": 0.4623,
|
||||||
|
"stephen f. austin": 0.4435, "sf austin": 0.4435,
|
||||||
|
"norfolk st.": 0.3468, "norfolk state": 0.3468,
|
||||||
|
};
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
// ─── Public helpers (exported for unit testing) ───────────────────────────────
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
/** Normalize a team name for Barthag map lookup. */
|
||||||
|
export function normalizeTeamName(name: string): string {
|
||||||
|
return name.toLowerCase().trim().replace(/\s+/g, " ");
|
||||||
|
}
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
/**
|
||||||
|
* Look up Barttorvik Barthag rating for a participant name.
|
||||||
|
* Returns BARTHAG_FALLBACK (0.5 = average strength) if not found.
|
||||||
|
*/
|
||||||
|
export function getBarthagRating(name: string): number {
|
||||||
|
return BARTHAG_RATINGS[normalizeTeamName(name)] ?? BARTHAG_FALLBACK;
|
||||||
|
}
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
/**
|
||||||
|
* NCAAW neutral-court win probability using Barttorvik Barthag (Log5 formula).
|
||||||
|
* P(A beats B) = A*(1−B) / (A*(1−B) + B*(1−A))
|
||||||
|
*
|
||||||
|
* Key properties:
|
||||||
|
* barthagWinProbability(x, 0.5) === x (Barthag definition)
|
||||||
|
* barthagWinProbability(A, B) + barthagWinProbability(B, A) === 1 (symmetric)
|
||||||
|
*
|
||||||
|
* Exported for unit testing.
|
||||||
|
*/
|
||||||
|
export function barthagWinProbability(barthagA: number, barthagB: number): number {
|
||||||
|
const pA = barthagA * (1 - barthagB);
|
||||||
|
const pB = barthagB * (1 - barthagA);
|
||||||
|
const total = pA + pB;
|
||||||
|
// Degenerate case: both teams identical at 0 or 1 → coin flip
|
||||||
|
if (total === 0) return 0.5;
|
||||||
|
return pA / total;
|
||||||
|
}
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
// ─── Simulator ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
export class NCAAWSimulator implements Simulator {
|
||||||
|
async simulate(sportsSeasonId: string): Promise<SimulationResult[]> {
|
||||||
|
const db = database();
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
// 1. Find the bracket scoring event (playoff_game) for this sports season.
|
||||||
|
const bracketEvent = await db.query.scoringEvents.findFirst({
|
||||||
|
where: and(
|
||||||
|
eq(schema.scoringEvents.sportsSeasonId, sportsSeasonId),
|
||||||
|
eq(schema.scoringEvents.eventType, "playoff_game")
|
||||||
|
),
|
||||||
|
});
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
if (!bracketEvent) {
|
||||||
|
throw new Error(
|
||||||
|
`No bracket event found for sports season ${sportsSeasonId}. ` +
|
||||||
|
`Create a playoff_game scoring event and set up the 64-team bracket first.`
|
||||||
|
);
|
||||||
|
}
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
// 2. Load all playoff matches for this bracket event.
|
||||||
|
const allMatches = await db.query.playoffMatches.findMany({
|
||||||
|
where: eq(schema.playoffMatches.scoringEventId, bracketEvent.id),
|
||||||
|
orderBy: (m, { asc }) => [asc(m.matchNumber)],
|
||||||
|
});
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
if (allMatches.length === 0) {
|
||||||
|
throw new Error(
|
||||||
|
`No playoff matches found for the bracket event. ` +
|
||||||
|
`Generate the 64-team bracket from the admin panel first.`
|
||||||
|
);
|
||||||
|
}
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
// 3. Group matches by round name.
|
||||||
|
// Rounds: "First Four" (optional, 4) | "Round of 64" (32) | "Round of 32" (16)
|
||||||
|
// | "Sweet Sixteen" (8) | "Elite Eight" (4) | "Final Four" (2) | "Championship" (1)
|
||||||
|
const byRound = new Map<string, typeof allMatches>();
|
||||||
|
for (const m of allMatches) {
|
||||||
|
if (!byRound.has(m.round)) byRound.set(m.round, []);
|
||||||
|
byRound.get(m.round)!.push(m);
|
||||||
|
}
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
const sortByMatchNumber = (matches: typeof allMatches) =>
|
||||||
|
[...matches].sort((a, b) => a.matchNumber - b.matchNumber);
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
const firstFourMatches = byRound.has("First Four") ? sortByMatchNumber(byRound.get("First Four")!) : [];
|
||||||
|
const r64Matches = byRound.has("Round of 64") ? sortByMatchNumber(byRound.get("Round of 64")!) : null;
|
||||||
|
const r32Matches = byRound.has("Round of 32") ? sortByMatchNumber(byRound.get("Round of 32")!) : null;
|
||||||
|
const s16Matches = byRound.has("Sweet Sixteen") ? sortByMatchNumber(byRound.get("Sweet Sixteen")!) : null;
|
||||||
|
const e8Matches = byRound.has("Elite Eight") ? sortByMatchNumber(byRound.get("Elite Eight")!) : null;
|
||||||
|
const ffMatches = byRound.has("Final Four") ? sortByMatchNumber(byRound.get("Final Four")!) : null;
|
||||||
|
const champMatches = byRound.has("Championship") ? sortByMatchNumber(byRound.get("Championship")!) : null;
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
if (!r64Matches || !r32Matches || !s16Matches || !e8Matches || !ffMatches || !champMatches) {
|
||||||
|
const found = [...byRound.keys()].join(", ");
|
||||||
|
throw new Error(
|
||||||
|
`Missing expected rounds. Found: [${found}]. ` +
|
||||||
|
`Required: Round of 64, Round of 32, Sweet Sixteen, Elite Eight, Final Four, Championship.`
|
||||||
|
);
|
||||||
|
}
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
if (r64Matches.length !== 32) {
|
||||||
|
throw new Error(
|
||||||
|
`Expected 32 Round of 64 matches, found ${r64Matches.length}. ` +
|
||||||
|
`This simulator only supports the standard 64-team NCAAW format.`
|
||||||
|
);
|
||||||
|
}
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
// 4. Build First Four → Round of 64 slot mapping (if First Four games exist).
|
||||||
|
const ffToR64 = new Map<number, number>();
|
||||||
|
const r64NullSlots = new Set<number>(
|
||||||
|
r64Matches.filter((m) => !m.participant2Id).map((m) => m.matchNumber)
|
||||||
|
);
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
if (firstFourMatches.length > 0) {
|
||||||
|
const regions =
|
||||||
|
(bracketEvent.bracketRegionConfig as BracketRegion[] | null) ??
|
||||||
|
[
|
||||||
|
{ name: "East", directSeeds: [1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16], playIns: [] },
|
||||||
|
{ name: "South", directSeeds: [1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15], playIns: [{ seedSlot: 16, teams: 2 }] },
|
||||||
|
{ name: "West", directSeeds: [1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,12,13,14,15,16], playIns: [{ seedSlot: 11, teams: 2 }] },
|
||||||
|
{ name: "Midwest", directSeeds: [1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,12,13,14,15], playIns: [{ seedSlot: 11, teams: 2 }, { seedSlot: 16, teams: 2 }] },
|
||||||
|
];
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
const slotMap = buildNCAA68SlotMap(regions);
|
||||||
|
for (let i = 0; i < slotMap.playInOffsets.length; i++) {
|
||||||
|
const { regionIndex, seedSlot } = slotMap.playInOffsets[i];
|
||||||
|
const r64MatchNumber = regionIndex * 8 + matchIndexForSeedSlot(seedSlot) + 1;
|
||||||
|
ffToR64.set(i + 1, r64MatchNumber);
|
||||||
|
}
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
for (const m of firstFourMatches) {
|
||||||
|
if (!m.participant1Id || !m.participant2Id) {
|
||||||
|
throw new Error(
|
||||||
|
`First Four match ${m.matchNumber} is missing participants. ` +
|
||||||
|
`Assign both teams before running simulation.`
|
||||||
|
);
|
||||||
|
}
|
||||||
|
}
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
// Validate First Four → R64 mapping covers exactly the null R64 slots.
|
||||||
|
const r64SlotsCoveredByFF = new Set(ffToR64.values());
|
||||||
|
for (const nullSlot of r64NullSlots) {
|
||||||
|
if (!r64SlotsCoveredByFF.has(nullSlot)) {
|
||||||
|
throw new Error(
|
||||||
|
`Round of 64 match ${nullSlot} has no participant2 but is not covered ` +
|
||||||
|
`by any First Four mapping. Check the bracket configuration.`
|
||||||
|
);
|
||||||
|
}
|
||||||
|
}
|
||||||
|
for (const ffR64Slot of r64SlotsCoveredByFF) {
|
||||||
|
if (!r64NullSlots.has(ffR64Slot)) {
|
||||||
|
throw new Error(
|
||||||
|
`First Four maps to Round of 64 match ${ffR64Slot}, but that slot is ` +
|
||||||
|
`already filled. Check the bracket configuration.`
|
||||||
|
);
|
||||||
|
}
|
||||||
|
}
|
||||||
|
} else {
|
||||||
|
for (const m of r64Matches) {
|
||||||
|
if (!m.participant1Id || !m.participant2Id) {
|
||||||
|
throw new Error(
|
||||||
|
`Round of 64 match ${m.matchNumber} is missing participants. ` +
|
||||||
|
`Assign all 64 teams to the bracket before running simulation.`
|
||||||
|
);
|
||||||
|
}
|
||||||
|
}
|
||||||
|
}
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
// 5. Collect all participant IDs (up to 68 when First Four is present).
|
||||||
|
const participantIdSet = new Set<string>();
|
||||||
|
for (const m of r64Matches) {
|
||||||
|
if (m.participant1Id) participantIdSet.add(m.participant1Id);
|
||||||
|
if (m.participant2Id) participantIdSet.add(m.participant2Id);
|
||||||
|
}
|
||||||
|
for (const m of firstFourMatches) {
|
||||||
|
if (m.participant1Id) participantIdSet.add(m.participant1Id);
|
||||||
|
if (m.participant2Id) participantIdSet.add(m.participant2Id);
|
||||||
|
}
|
||||||
|
const participantIds = [...participantIdSet];
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
// 6. Load participant names from DB; build Barthag lookup by ID.
|
||||||
|
const participantRows = await db
|
||||||
|
.select({ id: schema.participants.id, name: schema.participants.name })
|
||||||
|
.from(schema.participants)
|
||||||
|
.where(inArray(schema.participants.id, participantIds));
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
const barthagById = new Map<string, number>();
|
||||||
|
for (const { id, name } of participantRows) {
|
||||||
|
barthagById.set(id, getBarthagRating(name));
|
||||||
|
}
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
// 7. Build per-round O(1) lookup maps keyed by matchNumber.
|
||||||
|
const firstFourByNum = new Map(firstFourMatches.map((m) => [m.matchNumber, m]));
|
||||||
|
const r64ByNum = new Map(r64Matches.map((m) => [m.matchNumber, m]));
|
||||||
|
const r32ByNum = new Map(r32Matches.map((m) => [m.matchNumber, m]));
|
||||||
|
const s16ByNum = new Map(s16Matches.map((m) => [m.matchNumber, m]));
|
||||||
|
const e8ByNum = new Map(e8Matches.map((m) => [m.matchNumber, m]));
|
||||||
|
const ffByNum = new Map(ffMatches.map((m) => [m.matchNumber, m]));
|
||||||
|
const champMatch = champMatches[0];
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
// ─── Helpers ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
const simMatch = (p1: string, p2: string): { winner: string; loser: string } => {
|
||||||
|
const b1 = barthagById.get(p1) ?? BARTHAG_FALLBACK;
|
||||||
|
const b2 = barthagById.get(p2) ?? BARTHAG_FALLBACK;
|
||||||
|
const w = Math.random() < barthagWinProbability(b1, b2) ? p1 : p2;
|
||||||
|
return { winner: w, loser: w === p1 ? p2 : p1 };
|
||||||
|
};
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
// 8. Integer placement count maps — initialized to 0 for all participants.
|
||||||
|
const championCounts = new Map<string, number>(participantIds.map((id) => [id, 0]));
|
||||||
|
const finalistCounts = new Map<string, number>(participantIds.map((id) => [id, 0]));
|
||||||
|
const ffLoserCounts = new Map<string, number>(participantIds.map((id) => [id, 0]));
|
||||||
|
const e8LoserCounts = new Map<string, number>(participantIds.map((id) => [id, 0]));
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
// 9. Monte Carlo simulation loop.
|
||||||
|
for (let s = 0; s < NUM_SIMULATIONS; s++) {
|
||||||
|
// ── First Four ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
|
||||||
|
const ffSimWinners = new Map<number, string>();
|
||||||
|
for (const [ffMatchNum, r64MatchNum] of ffToR64) {
|
||||||
|
const m = firstFourByNum.get(ffMatchNum)!;
|
||||||
|
const winner = m.isComplete && m.winnerId
|
||||||
|
? m.winnerId
|
||||||
|
: simMatch(m.participant1Id!, m.participant2Id!).winner;
|
||||||
|
ffSimWinners.set(r64MatchNum, winner);
|
||||||
|
}
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
// ── Round of 64 ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────
|
||||||
|
const r64Winners: string[] = [];
|
||||||
|
for (let i = 1; i <= 32; i++) {
|
||||||
|
const m = r64ByNum.get(i)!;
|
||||||
|
const p2 = m.participant2Id ?? ffSimWinners.get(i) ?? null;
|
||||||
|
if (m.isComplete && m.winnerId) {
|
||||||
|
r64Winners.push(m.winnerId);
|
||||||
|
} else {
|
||||||
|
r64Winners.push(simMatch(m.participant1Id!, p2!).winner);
|
||||||
|
}
|
||||||
|
}
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
// ── Round of 32 ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────
|
||||||
|
const r32Winners: string[] = [];
|
||||||
|
for (let i = 1; i <= 16; i++) {
|
||||||
|
const dbMatch = r32ByNum.get(i);
|
||||||
|
if (dbMatch?.isComplete && dbMatch.winnerId) {
|
||||||
|
r32Winners.push(dbMatch.winnerId);
|
||||||
|
} else {
|
||||||
|
const p1 = r64Winners[(i - 1) * 2];
|
||||||
|
const p2 = r64Winners[(i - 1) * 2 + 1];
|
||||||
|
r32Winners.push(simMatch(p1, p2).winner);
|
||||||
|
}
|
||||||
|
}
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
// ── Sweet 16 ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
|
||||||
|
const s16Winners: string[] = [];
|
||||||
|
for (let i = 1; i <= 8; i++) {
|
||||||
|
const dbMatch = s16ByNum.get(i);
|
||||||
|
if (dbMatch?.isComplete && dbMatch.winnerId) {
|
||||||
|
s16Winners.push(dbMatch.winnerId);
|
||||||
|
} else {
|
||||||
|
const p1 = r32Winners[(i - 1) * 2];
|
||||||
|
const p2 = r32Winners[(i - 1) * 2 + 1];
|
||||||
|
s16Winners.push(simMatch(p1, p2).winner);
|
||||||
|
}
|
||||||
|
}
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
// ── Elite Eight (tracked losers → 5th–8th) ────────────────────────────
|
||||||
|
const e8Winners: string[] = [];
|
||||||
|
for (let i = 1; i <= 4; i++) {
|
||||||
|
const dbMatch = e8ByNum.get(i);
|
||||||
|
let winner: string;
|
||||||
|
let loser: string;
|
||||||
|
if (dbMatch?.isComplete && dbMatch.winnerId && dbMatch.loserId) {
|
||||||
|
winner = dbMatch.winnerId;
|
||||||
|
loser = dbMatch.loserId;
|
||||||
|
} else {
|
||||||
|
const p1 = s16Winners[(i - 1) * 2];
|
||||||
|
const p2 = s16Winners[(i - 1) * 2 + 1];
|
||||||
|
({ winner, loser } = simMatch(p1, p2));
|
||||||
|
}
|
||||||
|
e8Winners.push(winner);
|
||||||
|
e8LoserCounts.set(loser, (e8LoserCounts.get(loser) ?? 0) + 1);
|
||||||
|
}
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
// ── Final Four (tracked losers → 3rd/4th) ─────────────────────────────
|
||||||
|
const ffWinners: string[] = [];
|
||||||
|
for (let i = 1; i <= 2; i++) {
|
||||||
|
const dbMatch = ffByNum.get(i);
|
||||||
|
let winner: string;
|
||||||
|
let loser: string;
|
||||||
|
if (dbMatch?.isComplete && dbMatch.winnerId && dbMatch.loserId) {
|
||||||
|
winner = dbMatch.winnerId;
|
||||||
|
loser = dbMatch.loserId;
|
||||||
|
} else {
|
||||||
|
const p1 = e8Winners[(i - 1) * 2];
|
||||||
|
const p2 = e8Winners[(i - 1) * 2 + 1];
|
||||||
|
({ winner, loser } = simMatch(p1, p2));
|
||||||
|
}
|
||||||
|
ffWinners.push(winner);
|
||||||
|
ffLoserCounts.set(loser, (ffLoserCounts.get(loser) ?? 0) + 1);
|
||||||
|
}
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
// ── Championship ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────
|
||||||
|
let champion: string;
|
||||||
|
let finalist: string;
|
||||||
|
if (champMatch?.isComplete && champMatch.winnerId && champMatch.loserId) {
|
||||||
|
champion = champMatch.winnerId;
|
||||||
|
finalist = champMatch.loserId;
|
||||||
|
} else {
|
||||||
|
({ winner: champion, loser: finalist } = simMatch(ffWinners[0], ffWinners[1]));
|
||||||
|
}
|
||||||
|
championCounts.set(champion, (championCounts.get(champion) ?? 0) + 1);
|
||||||
|
finalistCounts.set(finalist, (finalistCounts.get(finalist) ?? 0) + 1);
|
||||||
|
}
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
// 10. Convert integer counts to probability distributions.
|
||||||
|
const N = NUM_SIMULATIONS;
|
||||||
|
const results: SimulationResult[] = participantIds.map((participantId) => {
|
||||||
|
const c = championCounts.get(participantId)!;
|
||||||
|
const f = finalistCounts.get(participantId)!;
|
||||||
|
const ff = ffLoserCounts.get(participantId)!;
|
||||||
|
const e8 = e8LoserCounts.get(participantId)!;
|
||||||
|
return {
|
||||||
|
participantId,
|
||||||
|
probabilities: {
|
||||||
|
probFirst: c / N,
|
||||||
|
probSecond: f / N,
|
||||||
|
probThird: ff / (2 * N),
|
||||||
|
probFourth: ff / (2 * N),
|
||||||
|
probFifth: e8 / (4 * N),
|
||||||
|
probSixth: e8 / (4 * N),
|
||||||
|
probSeventh: e8 / (4 * N),
|
||||||
|
probEighth: e8 / (4 * N),
|
||||||
|
},
|
||||||
|
source: "ncaaw_bracket_barthag",
|
||||||
|
};
|
||||||
|
});
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
// 11. Per-position normalization — belt-and-suspenders guard against
|
||||||
|
// floating-point residuals. Column sums are already near-exactly 1.0.
|
||||||
|
const positionKeys: Array<keyof (typeof results)[0]["probabilities"]> = [
|
||||||
|
"probFirst", "probSecond", "probThird", "probFourth",
|
||||||
|
"probFifth", "probSixth", "probSeventh", "probEighth",
|
||||||
|
];
|
||||||
|
for (const key of positionKeys) {
|
||||||
|
const colSum = results.reduce((s, r) => s + r.probabilities[key], 0);
|
||||||
|
const residual = 1.0 - colSum;
|
||||||
|
if (residual !== 0) {
|
||||||
|
const maxResult = results.reduce((best, r) =>
|
||||||
|
r.probabilities[key] > best.probabilities[key] ? r : best
|
||||||
|
);
|
||||||
|
maxResult.probabilities[key] += residual;
|
||||||
|
}
|
||||||
|
}
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
return results;
|
||||||
|
}
|
||||||
|
}
|
||||||
|
|
@ -11,13 +11,17 @@ import { BracketSimulator } from "./bracket-simulator";
|
||||||
import { F1Simulator } from "./f1-simulator";
|
import { F1Simulator } from "./f1-simulator";
|
||||||
import { GolfSimulator } from "./golf-simulator";
|
import { GolfSimulator } from "./golf-simulator";
|
||||||
import { UCLSimulator } from "./ucl-simulator";
|
import { UCLSimulator } from "./ucl-simulator";
|
||||||
|
import { NCAAMSimulator } from "./ncaam-simulator";
|
||||||
|
import { NCAAWSimulator } from "./ncaaw-simulator";
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
export type SimulatorType =
|
export type SimulatorType =
|
||||||
| "f1_standings"
|
| "f1_standings"
|
||||||
| "indycar_standings"
|
| "indycar_standings"
|
||||||
| "golf_qualifying_points"
|
| "golf_qualifying_points"
|
||||||
| "playoff_bracket"
|
| "playoff_bracket"
|
||||||
| "ucl_bracket";
|
| "ucl_bracket"
|
||||||
|
| "ncaam_bracket"
|
||||||
|
| "ncaaw_bracket";
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
export interface SimulatorInfo {
|
export interface SimulatorInfo {
|
||||||
name: string;
|
name: string;
|
||||||
|
|
@ -45,6 +49,14 @@ const REGISTRY: Record<SimulatorType, { info: SimulatorInfo; create: () => Simul
|
||||||
info: { name: "UCL Bracket Monte Carlo", description: "Simulates the UEFA Champions League 16-team knockout bracket using blended Elo + futures odds" },
|
info: { name: "UCL Bracket Monte Carlo", description: "Simulates the UEFA Champions League 16-team knockout bracket using blended Elo + futures odds" },
|
||||||
create: () => new UCLSimulator(),
|
create: () => new UCLSimulator(),
|
||||||
},
|
},
|
||||||
|
ncaam_bracket: {
|
||||||
|
info: { name: "NCAAM Bracket Monte Carlo", description: "Simulates the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament 64-team bracket using KenPom net ratings" },
|
||||||
|
create: () => new NCAAMSimulator(),
|
||||||
|
},
|
||||||
|
ncaaw_bracket: {
|
||||||
|
info: { name: "NCAAW Bracket Monte Carlo", description: "Simulates the NCAA Women's Basketball Tournament 64-team bracket using Barttorvik Barthag ratings" },
|
||||||
|
create: () => new NCAAWSimulator(),
|
||||||
|
},
|
||||||
};
|
};
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
export function getSimulator(simulatorType: SimulatorType): Simulator {
|
export function getSimulator(simulatorType: SimulatorType): Simulator {
|
||||||
|
|
|
||||||
|
|
@ -82,6 +82,8 @@ export const simulatorTypeEnum = pgEnum("simulator_type", [
|
||||||
"golf_qualifying_points",
|
"golf_qualifying_points",
|
||||||
"playoff_bracket",
|
"playoff_bracket",
|
||||||
"ucl_bracket",
|
"ucl_bracket",
|
||||||
|
"ncaam_bracket",
|
||||||
|
"ncaaw_bracket",
|
||||||
]);
|
]);
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
export const playoffMatchGameStatusEnum = pgEnum("playoff_match_game_status", [
|
export const playoffMatchGameStatusEnum = pgEnum("playoff_match_game_status", [
|
||||||
|
|
|
||||||
9
drizzle/0044_add_ncaam_bracket_simulator_type.sql
Normal file
9
drizzle/0044_add_ncaam_bracket_simulator_type.sql
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,9 @@
|
||||||
|
DO $$ BEGIN
|
||||||
|
IF NOT EXISTS (
|
||||||
|
SELECT 1 FROM pg_enum
|
||||||
|
WHERE enumlabel = 'ncaam_bracket'
|
||||||
|
AND enumtypid = (SELECT oid FROM pg_type WHERE typname = 'simulator_type')
|
||||||
|
) THEN
|
||||||
|
ALTER TYPE "public"."simulator_type" ADD VALUE 'ncaam_bracket';
|
||||||
|
END IF;
|
||||||
|
END $$;
|
||||||
10
drizzle/0045_add_ncaaw_bracket_simulator_type.sql
Normal file
10
drizzle/0045_add_ncaaw_bracket_simulator_type.sql
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,10 @@
|
||||||
|
-- Add ncaaw_bracket to simulator_type enum (idempotent)
|
||||||
|
DO $$ BEGIN
|
||||||
|
IF NOT EXISTS (
|
||||||
|
SELECT 1 FROM pg_enum
|
||||||
|
WHERE enumlabel = 'ncaaw_bracket'
|
||||||
|
AND enumtypid = (SELECT oid FROM pg_type WHERE typname = 'simulator_type')
|
||||||
|
) THEN
|
||||||
|
ALTER TYPE "public"."simulator_type" ADD VALUE 'ncaaw_bracket';
|
||||||
|
END IF;
|
||||||
|
END $$;
|
||||||
|
|
@ -309,6 +309,20 @@
|
||||||
"when": 1773634394633,
|
"when": 1773634394633,
|
||||||
"tag": "0043_demonic_vanisher",
|
"tag": "0043_demonic_vanisher",
|
||||||
"breakpoints": true
|
"breakpoints": true
|
||||||
|
},
|
||||||
|
{
|
||||||
|
"idx": 44,
|
||||||
|
"version": "7",
|
||||||
|
"when": 1773700000000,
|
||||||
|
"tag": "0044_add_ncaam_bracket_simulator_type",
|
||||||
|
"breakpoints": true
|
||||||
|
},
|
||||||
|
{
|
||||||
|
"idx": 45,
|
||||||
|
"version": "7",
|
||||||
|
"when": 1773710000000,
|
||||||
|
"tag": "0045_add_ncaaw_bracket_simulator_type",
|
||||||
|
"breakpoints": true
|
||||||
}
|
}
|
||||||
]
|
]
|
||||||
}
|
}
|
||||||
Loading…
Add table
Reference in a new issue