- NCAAM: KenPom AEM logistic formula (1/(1+exp(-diff/7.5))), data through 2025-26 March 15 - NCAAW: Barttorvik Barthag Log5 formula (A*(1-B)/(A*(1-B)+B*(1-A))), same bracket structure - Both simulators: 50,000-iteration Monte Carlo, First Four simulation, honors completed matches - Track E8+ placements only: champion, finalist, FF losers (3rd/4th), E8 losers (5th–8th) - Add bracket configuration validation: null R64 slots must exactly match First Four mapping - Fix DEFAULT_SCORING_RULES to 100/70/45/45/20/20/20/20 (3rd/4th=45, 5th–8th=20) - Align scoring constants across simulate route, expected-values display, and server action - Zero out EVs for non-bracket participants on every simulation run (prevents EV inflation) - Add EV total invariant warning (expected ~340) on expected-values admin page - 98 unit tests across NCAAM, NCAAW, and UCL simulators — all passing Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
86 lines
3 KiB
TypeScript
86 lines
3 KiB
TypeScript
import type { Route } from "./+types/admin.sports-seasons.$id.expected-values";
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import { findSportsSeasonById } from "~/models/sports-season";
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import { findParticipantsBySportsSeasonId } from "~/models/participant";
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import {
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upsertParticipantEV,
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getAllParticipantEVsForSeason
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} from "~/models/participant-expected-value";
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export async function loader({ params }: Route.LoaderArgs) {
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const sportsSeason = await findSportsSeasonById(params.id);
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if (!sportsSeason) {
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throw new Response("Sports season not found", { status: 404 });
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}
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const participants = await findParticipantsBySportsSeasonId(params.id);
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const existingEVs = await getAllParticipantEVsForSeason(params.id);
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// Create a map of participant ID to EV data
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const evMap = new Map(existingEVs.map(ev => [ev.participantId, ev]));
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return {
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sportsSeason: sportsSeason as typeof sportsSeason & { sport: { id: string; name: string; type: string; slug: string } },
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participants,
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existingEVs: evMap,
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};
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}
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const scoringRules = {
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pointsFor1st: 100,
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pointsFor2nd: 70,
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pointsFor3rd: 45,
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pointsFor4th: 45,
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pointsFor5th: 20,
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pointsFor6th: 20,
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pointsFor7th: 20,
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pointsFor8th: 20,
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};
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export async function action({ request, params }: Route.ActionArgs) {
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const formData = await request.formData();
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const participants = await findParticipantsBySportsSeasonId(params.id);
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const participantIds = participants.map((p: { id: string }) => p.id);
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try {
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const results = await Promise.all(
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participantIds.map(async (participantId) => {
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const probFirst = parseFloat(formData.get(`probFirst_${participantId}`) as string || "0") / 100;
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const probSecond = parseFloat(formData.get(`probSecond_${participantId}`) as string || "0") / 100;
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const probThird = parseFloat(formData.get(`probThird_${participantId}`) as string || "0") / 100;
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const probFourth = parseFloat(formData.get(`probFourth_${participantId}`) as string || "0") / 100;
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const probFifth = parseFloat(formData.get(`probFifth_${participantId}`) as string || "0") / 100;
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const probSixth = parseFloat(formData.get(`probSixth_${participantId}`) as string || "0") / 100;
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const probSeventh = parseFloat(formData.get(`probSeventh_${participantId}`) as string || "0") / 100;
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const probEighth = parseFloat(formData.get(`probEighth_${participantId}`) as string || "0") / 100;
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return upsertParticipantEV({
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participantId,
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sportsSeasonId: params.id,
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probabilities: {
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probFirst,
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probSecond,
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probThird,
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probFourth,
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probFifth,
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probSixth,
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probSeventh,
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probEighth,
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},
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scoringRules,
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source: "manual",
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});
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})
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);
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const totalEV = results.reduce((sum, r) => sum + parseFloat(r.expectedValue), 0);
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return { success: true, totalEV };
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} catch (error) {
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console.error("Error saving probabilities:", error);
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return {
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error: error instanceof Error ? error.message : "Failed to save probabilities"
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};
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}
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}
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