Add NHL playoff simulator and fix simulator dropdown (#166)
Closes #115 - Add `NHLSimulator` using NHL's divisional bracket format (top 3 per division + 2 wildcards per conference, best-of-7 series, parity factor 800). Elo ratings and seeding probabilities sourced from elo.harvitronix.com/nhl/2025-2026 as of March 18, 2026. - Add `nhl_bracket` to `simulatorTypeEnum` with migration. - Register `NHLSimulator` in the simulator registry. - Fix simulator type dropdown in admin to auto-generate from the registry instead of a hardcoded list, so new simulators appear automatically without a separate UI change. Code review fixes applied to the simulator: - Narrow `weightedPick` key type to the five seeding probability fields (was `keyof NhlTeamData`, allowing `"elo"` which would silently corrupt results) - Remove uniform-random fallback in `weightedPick` — zero-weight draws now return `undefined` and are skipped, preventing eliminated teams from becoming wildcards - Exclude unrecognized participants entirely (with a console warning) instead of silently routing them into the Eastern wildcard pool - Replace the confusing for-of loop over both conferences (with unused `champ` variable and `!`-suppressed unitialized vars) with two explicit sequential East/West blocks - Track `effectiveN` for skipped degenerate draws so probability denominators stay accurate; throw if all iterations are skipped Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
This commit is contained in:
Chris Parsons
GitHub
parent
9d1765d8a4
commit
6f5ea35952
7 changed files with 4138 additions and 9 deletions
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@ -22,7 +22,7 @@ import {
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SelectTrigger,
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SelectValue,
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} from "~/components/ui/select";
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import { SIMULATOR_TYPES } from "~/services/simulations/registry";
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import { SIMULATOR_TYPES, getSimulatorInfo } from "~/services/simulations/registry";
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export function meta({ data }: Route.MetaArgs): Route.MetaDescriptors {
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return [{ title: `${data?.sport?.name ?? "Sport"} - Brackt Admin` }];
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@ -205,14 +205,11 @@ export default function EditSport({ loaderData, actionData }: Route.ComponentPro
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</SelectTrigger>
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<SelectContent>
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<SelectItem value="none">No simulator</SelectItem>
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<SelectItem value="f1_standings">F1 Standings Model</SelectItem>
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<SelectItem value="indycar_standings">IndyCar Standings Model</SelectItem>
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<SelectItem value="golf_qualifying_points">Golf Qualifying Points Model</SelectItem>
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<SelectItem value="playoff_bracket">Bracket Monte Carlo</SelectItem>
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<SelectItem value="ucl_bracket">UCL Bracket Monte Carlo</SelectItem>
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<SelectItem value="ncaam_bracket">NCAAM Bracket Monte Carlo</SelectItem>
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<SelectItem value="ncaaw_bracket">NCAAW Bracket Monte Carlo</SelectItem>
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<SelectItem value="nba_bracket">NBA Playoff Monte Carlo</SelectItem>
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{SIMULATOR_TYPES.map((type) => (
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<SelectItem key={type} value={type}>
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{getSimulatorInfo(type)?.name ?? type}
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</SelectItem>
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))}
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</SelectContent>
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</Select>
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<p className="text-sm text-muted-foreground">
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572
app/services/simulations/nhl-simulator.ts
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572
app/services/simulations/nhl-simulator.ts
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@ -0,0 +1,572 @@
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/**
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* NHL Playoff Simulator
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*
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* Monte Carlo simulation of the NHL playoffs including seeding projection
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* for the current season (2025-26).
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*
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* Algorithm:
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* 1. Load all participants for the sports season from DB
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* 2. Match participant names to hardcoded team data (Elo + seeding probabilities)
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* 3. For each simulation:
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* a. For each conference, draw division placements (1st/2nd/3rd per division)
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* and two wildcard teams using weighted probability distributions
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* b. Build the NHL bracket:
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* - Higher-Elo division winner faces WC2; other division winner faces WC1
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* - Each division's 2nd vs 3rd seeds play each other
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* c. Simulate 4 rounds of best-of-7 series:
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* Round 1 (Wild Card): m0=topDiv1st/WC2, m1=otherDiv1st/WC1,
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* m2=topDiv2nd/3rd, m3=otherDiv2nd/3rd
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* Round 2 (Div Finals): m0w vs m2w, m1w vs m3w
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* Round 3 (Conf Finals): two division-final winners per conference
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* Stanley Cup Final: East champ vs West champ
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* 4. Track placement counts per scoring tier
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* 5. Convert counts to probability distributions
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*
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* Win probability (Elo, PARITY_FACTOR = 800):
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* P(A beats B) = 1 / (1 + 10^((eloB - eloA) / 800))
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* NHL uses a higher parity factor than the standard 400 to dampen the Elo
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* spread and reflect the high variance of hockey.
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*
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* Placement tiers → SimulationProbabilities mapping:
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* probFirst = Stanley Cup champion (1 per sim)
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* probSecond = Stanley Cup Final loser (1 per sim)
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* probThird / probFourth = Conference Final losers (2 per sim — East + West)
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* probFifth–probEighth = Second Round losers (4 per sim)
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* First Round losers → all 0 (score 0 points)
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* Missed playoffs → all 0
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*
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* Seeding probability keys per team:
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* p_div1 = prob of winning own division
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* p_div2 = prob of finishing 2nd in own division
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* p_div3 = prob of finishing 3rd in own division
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* p_wc1 = prob of being conference wildcard 1 (higher-ranked WC)
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* p_wc2 = prob of being conference wildcard 2 (lower-ranked WC)
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* Sum of all p_* ≈ team's overall playoff probability.
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* Teams with no p_* entries always miss the playoffs.
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*
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* Elo ratings and seeding probabilities are hardcoded below (March 2026 data).
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* Source: https://elo.harvitronix.com/nhl/2025-2026 (Elo ratings + playoff% calibration).
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* Seeding probabilities are hand-derived from current standings as of March 18, 2026.
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* Update at the start of each season.
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*/
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import { database } from "~/database/context";
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import { eq } from "drizzle-orm";
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import * as schema from "~/database/schema";
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import type { Simulator, SimulationResult } from "./types";
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// ─── Simulation parameters ────────────────────────────────────────────────────
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const NUM_SIMULATIONS = 50_000;
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/**
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* Elo parity factor. NHL uses 800 (double the standard 400) to reflect the
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* high game-to-game variance in hockey vs other sports.
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* An 800-point Elo difference → ~90.9% win probability per game.
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*/
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const PARITY_FACTOR = 800;
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// ─── Team data (2025-26 season, as of March 18, 2026) ────────────────────────
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//
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// elo: Elo rating from elo.harvitronix.com/nhl/2025-2026.
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// p_div1: Probability of finishing 1st in own division.
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// p_div2: Probability of finishing 2nd in own division.
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// p_div3: Probability of finishing 3rd in own division.
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// p_wc1: Probability of being conference wildcard 1 (higher seed).
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// p_wc2: Probability of being conference wildcard 2 (lower seed).
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//
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// These are weights used in sequential weighted sampling (not strict distributions).
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// Sum of all p_* per team ≈ their overall playoff% from the Harvitronix site.
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//
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// Divisions:
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// Eastern — Atlantic: BOS, BUF, DET, FLA, MTL, OTT, TBL, TOR
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// Eastern — Metropolitan: CAR, CBJ, NJD, NYI, NYR, PHI, PIT, WSH
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// Western — Central: CHI, COL, DAL, MIN, NSH, STL, UTA, WPG
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// Western — Pacific: ANA, CGY, EDM, LAK, SJS, SEA, VAN, VGK
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interface NhlTeamData {
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conference: "Eastern" | "Western";
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division: "Atlantic" | "Metropolitan" | "Central" | "Pacific";
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elo: number;
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p_div1?: number;
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p_div2?: number;
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p_div3?: number;
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p_wc1?: number;
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p_wc2?: number;
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}
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const TEAMS_DATA: Record<string, NhlTeamData> = {
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// ── Eastern Conference — Atlantic ──────────────────────────────────────────
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// BUF 108 pts, TBL 107 pts — neck-and-neck for 1st; both near-certain to make playoffs.
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// MTL 101 pts (86.7% PO) — almost certainly 3rd in Atlantic or WC.
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// OTT 96 pts (50.2%), DET 98 pts (63%), BOS 96 pts (51.1%) — WC bubble.
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// FLA 85 pts (0.5%), TOR 83 pts (0%) — eliminated.
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"Tampa Bay Lightning": {
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conference: "Eastern", division: "Atlantic", elo: 1587,
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p_div1: 0.50, p_div2: 0.40, p_div3: 0.06,
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},
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"Buffalo Sabres": {
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conference: "Eastern", division: "Atlantic", elo: 1572,
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p_div1: 0.45, p_div2: 0.42, p_div3: 0.07,
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},
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"Montreal Canadiens": {
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conference: "Eastern", division: "Atlantic", elo: 1527,
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p_div1: 0.01, p_div2: 0.05, p_div3: 0.60, p_wc1: 0.12, p_wc2: 0.06,
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},
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"Ottawa Senators": {
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conference: "Eastern", division: "Atlantic", elo: 1542,
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p_div1: 0.01, p_div2: 0.05, p_div3: 0.08, p_wc1: 0.22, p_wc2: 0.19,
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},
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"Detroit Red Wings": {
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conference: "Eastern", division: "Atlantic", elo: 1506,
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p_div3: 0.09, p_wc1: 0.27, p_wc2: 0.22,
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},
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"Boston Bruins": {
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conference: "Eastern", division: "Atlantic", elo: 1501,
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p_div3: 0.08, p_wc1: 0.22, p_wc2: 0.19,
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},
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"Florida Panthers": {
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conference: "Eastern", division: "Atlantic", elo: 1505,
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p_wc2: 0.005,
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},
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"Toronto Maple Leafs": {
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conference: "Eastern", division: "Atlantic", elo: 1479,
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// 0% playoff probability — always miss
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},
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// ── Eastern Conference — Metropolitan ─────────────────────────────────────
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// CAR 109 pts (99.9%) — clear 1st seed.
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// CBJ/PIT/NYI all tied at 99 pts — volatile 2nd/3rd/WC race.
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// WSH 89 pts (4.7%), PHI 90 pts (7.9%) — long shots.
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// NJD 86 pts (0.5%), NYR 80 pts (0%) — eliminated.
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"Carolina Hurricanes": {
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conference: "Eastern", division: "Metropolitan", elo: 1574,
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p_div1: 0.98, p_div2: 0.01,
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},
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"Columbus Blue Jackets": {
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conference: "Eastern", division: "Metropolitan", elo: 1530,
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p_div2: 0.33, p_div3: 0.33, p_wc1: 0.05, p_wc2: 0.04,
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},
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"Pittsburgh Penguins": {
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conference: "Eastern", division: "Metropolitan", elo: 1518,
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p_div2: 0.35, p_div3: 0.35, p_wc1: 0.07, p_wc2: 0.07,
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},
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"New York Islanders": {
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conference: "Eastern", division: "Metropolitan", elo: 1513,
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p_div2: 0.28, p_div3: 0.35, p_wc1: 0.07, p_wc2: 0.07,
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},
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"Philadelphia Flyers": {
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conference: "Eastern", division: "Metropolitan", elo: 1473,
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p_wc1: 0.02, p_wc2: 0.05,
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},
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"Washington Capitals": {
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conference: "Eastern", division: "Metropolitan", elo: 1506,
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p_wc1: 0.01, p_wc2: 0.03,
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},
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"New Jersey Devils": {
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conference: "Eastern", division: "Metropolitan", elo: 1488,
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p_wc2: 0.005,
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},
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"New York Rangers": {
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conference: "Eastern", division: "Metropolitan", elo: 1480,
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// 0% playoff probability — always miss
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},
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// ── Western Conference — Central ───────────────────────────────────────────
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// COL 119 pts, DAL 113 pts, MIN 106 pts — all locked in as top 3.
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// UTA 93 pts (92.8%) — leading WC candidate from Central.
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// NSH 85 pts (21.9%), WPG 82 pts (6.6%), STL 80 pts (2.2%) — long shots.
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// CHI 75 pts (0%) — eliminated.
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"Colorado Avalanche": {
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conference: "Western", division: "Central", elo: 1594,
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p_div1: 0.90, p_div2: 0.09, p_div3: 0.01,
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},
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"Dallas Stars": {
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conference: "Western", division: "Central", elo: 1581,
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p_div1: 0.08, p_div2: 0.80, p_div3: 0.11,
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},
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"Minnesota Wild": {
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conference: "Western", division: "Central", elo: 1548,
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p_div1: 0.02, p_div2: 0.10, p_div3: 0.86, p_wc1: 0.01,
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},
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"Utah Mammoth": {
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conference: "Western", division: "Central", elo: 1529,
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p_div3: 0.02, p_wc1: 0.55, p_wc2: 0.33,
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},
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"Nashville Predators": {
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conference: "Western", division: "Central", elo: 1471,
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p_wc1: 0.04, p_wc2: 0.17,
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},
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"Winnipeg Jets": {
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conference: "Western", division: "Central", elo: 1483,
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p_wc1: 0.01, p_wc2: 0.05,
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},
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"St. Louis Blues": {
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conference: "Western", division: "Central", elo: 1473,
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p_wc2: 0.02,
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},
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"Chicago Blackhawks": {
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conference: "Western", division: "Central", elo: 1411,
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// 0% playoff probability — always miss
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},
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// ── Western Conference — Pacific ───────────────────────────────────────────
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// ANA 94 pts, EDM 93 pts, VGK 93 pts — tight 3-way race for all 3 Pacific seeds.
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// LAK 87 pts (39.1%), SJS 87 pts (38.9%), SEA 86 pts (26.6%) — WC bubble.
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// CGY 73 pts (0%), VAN 63 pts (0%) — eliminated.
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"Anaheim Ducks": {
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conference: "Western", division: "Pacific", elo: 1490,
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p_div1: 0.40, p_div2: 0.33, p_div3: 0.17, p_wc1: 0.02, p_wc2: 0.01,
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},
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"Edmonton Oilers": {
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conference: "Western", division: "Pacific", elo: 1531,
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p_div1: 0.30, p_div2: 0.32, p_div3: 0.20, p_wc1: 0.04, p_wc2: 0.04,
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},
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"Vegas Golden Knights": {
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conference: "Western", division: "Pacific", elo: 1519,
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p_div1: 0.25, p_div2: 0.28, p_div3: 0.20, p_wc1: 0.06, p_wc2: 0.06,
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},
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"Los Angeles Kings": {
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conference: "Western", division: "Pacific", elo: 1482,
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p_div2: 0.02, p_div3: 0.09, p_wc1: 0.14, p_wc2: 0.12,
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},
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"San Jose Sharks": {
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conference: "Western", division: "Pacific", elo: 1455,
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p_div2: 0.01, p_div3: 0.08, p_wc1: 0.14, p_wc2: 0.12,
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},
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"Seattle Kraken": {
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conference: "Western", division: "Pacific", elo: 1469,
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p_div3: 0.07, p_wc1: 0.10, p_wc2: 0.10,
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},
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"Calgary Flames": {
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conference: "Western", division: "Pacific", elo: 1436,
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// 0% playoff probability — always miss
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},
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"Vancouver Canucks": {
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conference: "Western", division: "Pacific", elo: 1403,
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// 0% playoff probability — always miss
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},
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};
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// ─── Public helpers (exported for unit testing) ───────────────────────────────
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/** Normalize a team name for lookup (lowercase, trimmed, collapsed whitespace). */
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export function normalizeTeamName(name: string): string {
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return name.toLowerCase().trim().replace(/\s+/g, " ");
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}
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/** Look up team data by participant name (case-insensitive). */
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export function getTeamData(name: string): NhlTeamData | undefined {
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const normalized = normalizeTeamName(name);
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for (const [teamName, data] of Object.entries(TEAMS_DATA)) {
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if (normalizeTeamName(teamName) === normalized) return data;
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}
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return undefined;
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}
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/**
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* Elo win probability for team A over team B.
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* P(A) = 1 / (1 + 10^((eloB - eloA) / PARITY_FACTOR))
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* Exported for unit testing.
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*/
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export function eloWinProbability(eloA: number, eloB: number): number {
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return 1 / (1 + Math.pow(10, (eloB - eloA) / PARITY_FACTOR));
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}
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// ─── Internal types ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
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interface TeamEntry {
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id: string;
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name: string;
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data: NhlTeamData | undefined;
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}
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type DivisionSeedings = {
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first: TeamEntry;
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second: TeamEntry;
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third: TeamEntry;
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};
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// ─── Simulator ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
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export class NHLSimulator implements Simulator {
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async simulate(sportsSeasonId: string): Promise<SimulationResult[]> {
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const db = database();
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// 1. Load all participants for this sports season.
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const participantRows = await db
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.select({ id: schema.participants.id, name: schema.participants.name })
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.from(schema.participants)
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.where(eq(schema.participants.sportsSeasonId, sportsSeasonId));
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if (participantRows.length === 0) {
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throw new Error(
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`No participants found for sports season ${sportsSeasonId}. ` +
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`Add NHL teams as participants before running simulation.`
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);
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}
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const participantIds = participantRows.map((r) => r.id);
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const teams: TeamEntry[] = participantRows.map((r) => ({
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id: r.id,
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name: r.name,
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data: getTeamData(r.name),
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}));
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// Warn about participants that don't match any hardcoded team.
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// These are excluded entirely rather than silently landing in the wildcard pool.
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const unrecognized = teams.filter((t) => !t.data);
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if (unrecognized.length > 0) {
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console.warn(
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`[NHLSimulator] ${unrecognized.length} participant(s) not found in TEAMS_DATA and will be excluded: ` +
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unrecognized.map((t) => t.name).join(", ")
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);
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}
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// Separate recognized teams by conference + division.
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const easternAtlantic = teams.filter((t) => t.data?.division === "Atlantic");
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const easternMetro = teams.filter((t) => t.data?.division === "Metropolitan");
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const westernCentral = teams.filter((t) => t.data?.division === "Central");
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const westernPacific = teams.filter((t) => t.data?.division === "Pacific");
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// Only recognized teams enter the conference wildcard pools.
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const easternTeams = teams.filter((t) => t.data?.conference === "Eastern");
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const westernTeams = teams.filter((t) => t.data?.conference === "Western");
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if (easternTeams.length < 8 || westernTeams.length < 8) {
|
||||
throw new Error(
|
||||
`Each conference needs at least 8 recognized participants ` +
|
||||
`(got East: ${easternTeams.length}, West: ${westernTeams.length}). ` +
|
||||
`Add all 32 NHL teams before running simulation.`
|
||||
);
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
// ─── Helpers (defined once, outside the hot loop) ─────────────────────────
|
||||
|
||||
/** Get Elo for a team entry. Fallback 1400 for unknown teams. */
|
||||
const elo = (entry: TeamEntry): number => entry.data?.elo ?? 1400;
|
||||
|
||||
/** Simulate a best-of-7 series. Returns winner and loser. */
|
||||
const simSeries = (a: TeamEntry, b: TeamEntry): { winner: TeamEntry; loser: TeamEntry } => {
|
||||
const winProb = eloWinProbability(elo(a), elo(b));
|
||||
let winsA = 0;
|
||||
let winsB = 0;
|
||||
while (winsA < 4 && winsB < 4) {
|
||||
if (Math.random() < winProb) winsA++; else winsB++;
|
||||
}
|
||||
return winsA === 4 ? { winner: a, loser: b } : { winner: b, loser: a };
|
||||
};
|
||||
|
||||
/**
|
||||
* Weighted pick without replacement.
|
||||
* Draws one team from `pool` using the given seeding weight key, excluding `excluded`.
|
||||
* Returns undefined if no eligible team has positive weight — the caller should
|
||||
* treat that as a degenerate draw and skip the iteration.
|
||||
*/
|
||||
const weightedPick = (
|
||||
pool: TeamEntry[],
|
||||
weightKey: "p_div1" | "p_div2" | "p_div3" | "p_wc1" | "p_wc2",
|
||||
excluded: Set<TeamEntry>
|
||||
): TeamEntry | undefined => {
|
||||
const eligible = pool.filter((t) => !excluded.has(t));
|
||||
if (eligible.length === 0) return undefined;
|
||||
|
||||
const weights = eligible.map((t) => t.data?.[weightKey] ?? 0);
|
||||
const total = weights.reduce((s, w) => s + w, 0);
|
||||
if (total === 0) return undefined; // no team has positive weight for this slot
|
||||
|
||||
let r = Math.random() * total;
|
||||
for (let i = 0; i < eligible.length; i++) {
|
||||
r -= weights[i];
|
||||
if (r <= 0) return eligible[i];
|
||||
}
|
||||
return eligible[eligible.length - 1];
|
||||
};
|
||||
|
||||
/**
|
||||
* Draw the top-3 playoff seeds for a single division.
|
||||
* Returns undefined for each position if no team has weight for that slot
|
||||
* (shouldn't happen with correct data, but handled gracefully).
|
||||
*/
|
||||
const drawDivisionSeedings = (divTeams: TeamEntry[]): DivisionSeedings | undefined => {
|
||||
const taken = new Set<TeamEntry>();
|
||||
|
||||
const first = weightedPick(divTeams, "p_div1", taken);
|
||||
if (!first) return undefined;
|
||||
taken.add(first);
|
||||
|
||||
const second = weightedPick(divTeams, "p_div2", taken);
|
||||
if (!second) return undefined;
|
||||
taken.add(second);
|
||||
|
||||
const third = weightedPick(divTeams, "p_div3", taken);
|
||||
if (!third) return undefined;
|
||||
|
||||
return { first, second, third };
|
||||
};
|
||||
|
||||
/**
|
||||
* Build the 8-team playoff bracket for one conference.
|
||||
* Returns [m0, m1, m2, m3] where each element is [higher-seed, lower-seed].
|
||||
*
|
||||
* Bracket:
|
||||
* m0: topDiv_1st vs WC2 (top division winner plays weaker wildcard)
|
||||
* m1: otherDiv_1st vs WC1 (other division winner plays stronger wildcard)
|
||||
* m2: topDiv_2nd vs topDiv_3rd
|
||||
* m3: otherDiv_2nd vs otherDiv_3rd
|
||||
*
|
||||
* "Top division" = whichever division winner has higher Elo. The actual NHL rule
|
||||
* uses regular season points, but Elo is a reasonable per-simulation proxy since
|
||||
* we don't simulate the regular season — it approximates the same ordering.
|
||||
*/
|
||||
const buildConferenceBracket = (
|
||||
divATeams: TeamEntry[],
|
||||
divBTeams: TeamEntry[],
|
||||
allConfTeams: TeamEntry[]
|
||||
): [[TeamEntry, TeamEntry], [TeamEntry, TeamEntry], [TeamEntry, TeamEntry], [TeamEntry, TeamEntry]] | undefined => {
|
||||
const divA = drawDivisionSeedings(divATeams);
|
||||
const divB = drawDivisionSeedings(divBTeams);
|
||||
if (!divA || !divB) return undefined;
|
||||
|
||||
const divisionWinners = new Set([divA.first, divA.second, divA.third, divB.first, divB.second, divB.third]);
|
||||
const wcPool = allConfTeams.filter((t) => !divisionWinners.has(t));
|
||||
const wcTaken = new Set<TeamEntry>();
|
||||
|
||||
const wc1 = weightedPick(wcPool, "p_wc1", wcTaken);
|
||||
if (!wc1) return undefined;
|
||||
wcTaken.add(wc1);
|
||||
|
||||
const wc2 = weightedPick(wcPool, "p_wc2", wcTaken);
|
||||
if (!wc2) return undefined;
|
||||
|
||||
// Higher-Elo division winner faces WC2 (the weaker wildcard).
|
||||
const [topDiv, otherDiv] =
|
||||
elo(divA.first) >= elo(divB.first)
|
||||
? [divA, divB]
|
||||
: [divB, divA];
|
||||
|
||||
return [
|
||||
[topDiv.first, wc2], // m0
|
||||
[otherDiv.first, wc1], // m1
|
||||
[topDiv.second, topDiv.third], // m2
|
||||
[otherDiv.second, otherDiv.third], // m3
|
||||
];
|
||||
};
|
||||
|
||||
// ─── Placement count maps ──────────────────────────────────────────────────
|
||||
|
||||
const championCounts = new Map<string, number>(participantIds.map((id) => [id, 0]));
|
||||
const finalistCounts = new Map<string, number>(participantIds.map((id) => [id, 0]));
|
||||
const confFinalLoserCounts = new Map<string, number>(participantIds.map((id) => [id, 0]));
|
||||
const r2LoserCounts = new Map<string, number>(participantIds.map((id) => [id, 0]));
|
||||
|
||||
// ─── Monte Carlo simulation loop ───────────────────────────────────────────
|
||||
|
||||
// Track effective iterations separately: degenerate bracket draws are skipped
|
||||
// and must not count toward the probability denominators.
|
||||
let effectiveN = 0;
|
||||
|
||||
for (let s = 0; s < NUM_SIMULATIONS; s++) {
|
||||
// Build conference brackets.
|
||||
const eastBracket = buildConferenceBracket(easternAtlantic, easternMetro, easternTeams);
|
||||
const westBracket = buildConferenceBracket(westernCentral, westernPacific, westernTeams);
|
||||
if (!eastBracket || !westBracket) continue; // degenerate draw — do not count
|
||||
effectiveN++;
|
||||
|
||||
// ── Eastern Conference ────────────────────────────────────────────────────
|
||||
// Round 1: 4 series (Wild Card round).
|
||||
const eastR1Winners = eastBracket.map(([a, b]) => simSeries(a, b).winner);
|
||||
|
||||
// Round 2 (Division Finals):
|
||||
// m0w (topDiv1st/WC2 winner) vs m2w (topDiv 2nd/3rd winner)
|
||||
// m1w (otherDiv1st/WC1 winner) vs m3w (otherDiv 2nd/3rd winner)
|
||||
const eastR2m1 = simSeries(eastR1Winners[0], eastR1Winners[2]);
|
||||
const eastR2m2 = simSeries(eastR1Winners[1], eastR1Winners[3]);
|
||||
|
||||
// Conference Final.
|
||||
const eastCF = simSeries(eastR2m1.winner, eastR2m2.winner);
|
||||
const eastChamp = eastCF.winner;
|
||||
confFinalLoserCounts.set(eastCF.loser.id, confFinalLoserCounts.get(eastCF.loser.id)! + 1);
|
||||
|
||||
// ── Western Conference ────────────────────────────────────────────────────
|
||||
const westR1Winners = westBracket.map(([a, b]) => simSeries(a, b).winner);
|
||||
const westR2m1 = simSeries(westR1Winners[0], westR1Winners[2]);
|
||||
const westR2m2 = simSeries(westR1Winners[1], westR1Winners[3]);
|
||||
const westCF = simSeries(westR2m1.winner, westR2m2.winner);
|
||||
const westChamp = westCF.winner;
|
||||
confFinalLoserCounts.set(westCF.loser.id, confFinalLoserCounts.get(westCF.loser.id)! + 1);
|
||||
|
||||
// ── Stanley Cup Final ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────
|
||||
const final = simSeries(eastChamp, westChamp);
|
||||
championCounts.set(final.winner.id, championCounts.get(final.winner.id)! + 1);
|
||||
finalistCounts.set(final.loser.id, finalistCounts.get(final.loser.id)! + 1);
|
||||
|
||||
// Round 2 losers (4 per sim). Round 1 losers are not counted (0 points).
|
||||
for (const loser of [eastR2m1.loser, eastR2m2.loser, westR2m1.loser, westR2m2.loser]) {
|
||||
r2LoserCounts.set(loser.id, r2LoserCounts.get(loser.id)! + 1);
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
if (effectiveN === 0) {
|
||||
throw new Error(
|
||||
"All simulations produced degenerate brackets. " +
|
||||
"Check that each division has teams with positive seeding probabilities."
|
||||
);
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
// ─── Convert counts to probability distributions ───────────────────────────
|
||||
//
|
||||
// probFirst/Second → count / N (1 team per sim)
|
||||
// probThird/Fourth → count / (2 * N) (2 conf final losers per sim)
|
||||
// probFifth–Eighth → count / (4 * N) (4 R2 losers per sim)
|
||||
//
|
||||
const N = effectiveN;
|
||||
const results: SimulationResult[] = participantIds.map((participantId) => {
|
||||
const c = championCounts.get(participantId)!;
|
||||
const f = finalistCounts.get(participantId)!;
|
||||
const cf = confFinalLoserCounts.get(participantId)!;
|
||||
const r2 = r2LoserCounts.get(participantId)!;
|
||||
return {
|
||||
participantId,
|
||||
probabilities: {
|
||||
probFirst: c / N,
|
||||
probSecond: f / N,
|
||||
probThird: cf / (2 * N),
|
||||
probFourth: cf / (2 * N),
|
||||
probFifth: r2 / (4 * N),
|
||||
probSixth: r2 / (4 * N),
|
||||
probSeventh: r2 / (4 * N),
|
||||
probEighth: r2 / (4 * N),
|
||||
},
|
||||
source: "nhl_bracket_monte_carlo",
|
||||
};
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
||||
// ─── Per-position normalization ────────────────────────────────────────────
|
||||
//
|
||||
// Belt-and-suspenders guard against floating-point residuals.
|
||||
// Columns are already near-exactly 1.0 by construction above.
|
||||
//
|
||||
const positionKeys: Array<keyof (typeof results)[0]["probabilities"]> = [
|
||||
"probFirst", "probSecond", "probThird", "probFourth",
|
||||
"probFifth", "probSixth", "probSeventh", "probEighth",
|
||||
];
|
||||
for (const key of positionKeys) {
|
||||
const colSum = results.reduce((s, r) => s + r.probabilities[key], 0);
|
||||
const residual = 1.0 - colSum;
|
||||
if (residual !== 0) {
|
||||
const maxResult = results.reduce((best, r) =>
|
||||
r.probabilities[key] > best.probabilities[key] ? r : best
|
||||
);
|
||||
maxResult.probabilities[key] += residual;
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
return results;
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
|
@ -14,6 +14,7 @@ import { UCLSimulator } from "./ucl-simulator";
|
|||
import { NCAAMSimulator } from "./ncaam-simulator";
|
||||
import { NCAAWSimulator } from "./ncaaw-simulator";
|
||||
import { NBASimulator } from "./nba-simulator";
|
||||
import { NHLSimulator } from "./nhl-simulator";
|
||||
|
||||
export const SIMULATOR_TYPES = [
|
||||
"f1_standings",
|
||||
|
|
@ -24,6 +25,7 @@ export const SIMULATOR_TYPES = [
|
|||
"ncaam_bracket",
|
||||
"ncaaw_bracket",
|
||||
"nba_bracket",
|
||||
"nhl_bracket",
|
||||
] as const;
|
||||
|
||||
export type SimulatorType = typeof SIMULATOR_TYPES[number];
|
||||
|
|
@ -80,6 +82,10 @@ const REGISTRY: Record<SimulatorType, { info: SimulatorInfo; create: () => Simul
|
|||
info: { name: "NBA Playoff Monte Carlo", description: "Simulates NBA playoff seedings (via seed probabilities) and full bracket (best-of-7 series) using Elo ratings" },
|
||||
create: () => new NBASimulator(),
|
||||
},
|
||||
nhl_bracket: {
|
||||
info: { name: "NHL Playoff Monte Carlo", description: "Simulates NHL playoff seedings (divisional format, via seed probabilities) and full bracket (best-of-7 series) using Elo ratings" },
|
||||
create: () => new NHLSimulator(),
|
||||
},
|
||||
};
|
||||
|
||||
export function getSimulator(simulatorType: SimulatorType): Simulator {
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
@ -86,6 +86,7 @@ export const simulatorTypeEnum = pgEnum("simulator_type", [
|
|||
"ncaam_bracket",
|
||||
"ncaaw_bracket",
|
||||
"nba_bracket",
|
||||
"nhl_bracket",
|
||||
]);
|
||||
|
||||
export const playoffMatchGameStatusEnum = pgEnum("playoff_match_game_status", [
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
1
drizzle/0050_chief_peter_quill.sql
Normal file
1
drizzle/0050_chief_peter_quill.sql
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1 @@
|
|||
ALTER TYPE "public"."simulator_type" ADD VALUE 'nhl_bracket';
|
||||
3545
drizzle/meta/0050_snapshot.json
Normal file
3545
drizzle/meta/0050_snapshot.json
Normal file
File diff suppressed because it is too large
Load diff
|
|
@ -351,6 +351,13 @@
|
|||
"when": 1773800000000,
|
||||
"tag": "0049_add_admin_picked_by_type",
|
||||
"breakpoints": true
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"idx": 50,
|
||||
"version": "7",
|
||||
"when": 1773821310661,
|
||||
"tag": "0050_chief_peter_quill",
|
||||
"breakpoints": true
|
||||
}
|
||||
]
|
||||
}
|
||||
Loading…
Add table
Reference in a new issue