* Add MLB playoff simulator with AL/NL division standings, fixes#121
- New `mlb-simulator.ts`: 50k Monte Carlo sim drawing division winners
(weighted by p_div) and 3 WC teams per league, then simulating
WC best-of-3 → DS best-of-5 → LCS best-of-7 → World Series.
Elo parity factor 350; blends Vegas odds 30/70 when sourceOdds available.
- New `standings-sync/mlb.ts`: adapter for free statsapi.mlb.com API,
mapping AL/NL conferences, division ranks, streaks, home/away/L10 splits.
- New `mlb-divisions` display mode in RegularSeasonStandings: shows 1 division
winner per division section + Wild Card section with 3-spot playoff line,
headings read "AL/NL League" instead of "Conference".
- Refactored buildNhlSections/buildMlbSections into shared buildDivisionSections
(divisionSpots + wcSpots params); conferenceLabel now flows through group
objects rather than being derived from displayMode in the render.
- DB migration 0062 adds `mlb_bracket` to simulator_type enum.
- 37 new tests across simulator, adapter, and component.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* Fix flaky tennis simulator test: increase trials and lower threshold
500 trials with a ~3–5% expected win rate had enough variance to
occasionally land below the 0.03 threshold (~2% failure rate).
Bumping to 2000 trials reduces the std dev by 2x; lowering the
threshold to 0.02 keeps the assertion meaningful (still well above
random 0.78%) while eliminating the flakiness.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
---------
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* Add golf QP simulator with Plackett-Luce model, fixes#120
- New `participant_golf_skills` table (migration 0061) for SG: Total and
per-major American odds per player/season
- New `app/models/golf-skills.ts` with getGolfSkillsMap, getGolfSkillsForSeason,
batchUpsertGolfSkills
- Full `GolfSimulator` implementation replacing the TODO stub: Plackett-Luce
ranking model (PL_BETA=1.5, FIELD_SIZE=156), 10k Monte Carlo iterations,
awards QP by finishing position, ranks by total QP across all 4 majors
- New admin route `sports-seasons/:id/golf-skills` with bulk CSV import,
fuzzy name matching, per-player SG + per-major odds inputs; saves skills
and auto-runs simulation on submit
- Simulator dropdown on sport admin sorted alphabetically; renamed to
"Golf Qualifying Points Monte Carlo"
- Golf Skills button shown on sports season admin when simulator type is
golf_qualifying_points
- Extract normalizeName/diceCoefficient to shared `app/lib/fuzzy-match.ts`,
removing duplication from surface-elo and golf-skills routes
- Parallelize 4 DB queries in GolfSimulator.simulate() with Promise.all
- O(1) field array removal via swap-to-end + pop (was O(N) splice)
- Fix source tag: performance_model (not elo_simulation) for SG-based model
- 23 unit tests covering americanToImplied, getMajorOddsKey, resolveSkill,
simulateMajor, and Monte Carlo calibration properties
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* Fix oxlint errors: no-non-null-assertion and eqeqeq
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
---------
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Implements a Monte Carlo simulator for men's/women's tennis seasons scored
on the qualifying_points pattern. Simulates all 4 Grand Slam majors
(Australian Open, French Open, Wimbledon, US Open) using surface-specific
Elo ratings and ATP/WTA world rankings for seeding.
New table: participant_surface_elos — one row per (participant, season)
storing worldRanking, eloHard, eloClay, eloGrass.
Key design decisions:
- Seeding uses ATP/WTA world ranking (not Elo), matching real draw procedure
- Top 32 seeded with standard slot placement (1→0, 2→64, 3-4→quarters, etc.)
- QP per round with tie-splitting pre-applied: W=20, F=14, SF=9, QF=4, R16=1.5
- Completed majors read actual qualifyingPointsAwarded from eventResults
- 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations; column sums naturally 1.0 (no normalization)
Admin UI at /admin/sports-seasons/:id/surface-elo:
- 5-column grid (Player | Rank | Hard | Clay | Grass)
- Bulk import: "Name, ranking, hardElo, clayElo, grassElo" one per line
- Fuzzy name matching (bigram Dice coefficient) with "Did you mean?" suggestions
- Inline participant creation for unmatched names via useFetcher
- Saves Elos and auto-runs simulation on submit
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
- SnookerSimulator: Monte Carlo simulation of the 32-player World
Championship bracket using per-frame Bernoulli win probabilities
derived from Elo ratings (ELO_DIVISOR=700). Two paths: bracket-
populated (respects completed matches) and pre-bracket (simulates
qualifying, then seeds full draw).
- Admin route /sports-seasons/:id/elo-ratings: bulk-import and per-
player Elo entry with fuzzy name matching; saves ratings and auto-
runs the simulation in one action.
- schema: add snooker_bracket simulator type, source_elo column on
participant_expected_values, unique index on (participant_id,
sports_season_id).
- Fix batchSaveSourceElos to use INSERT ... ON CONFLICT DO UPDATE
instead of N+1 SELECT+UPDATE loop.
- Fix existingElos returned as plain Record (Map doesn't survive JSON
serialization through useLoaderData).
- Fix "How It Works" formula to show correct divisor (700, not 400).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Monte Carlo simulation of the 2026 AFL season and 10-team finals series.
Elo ratings are backsolved from Squiggle's projected season win totals using
the inverse formula: elo = 1500 - 450×log₁₀((1−wins/23)/(wins/23)).
- New `afl_bracket` simulator type (schema + migration)
- `afl-simulator.ts`: projects remaining regular season via Elo, seeds the
AFL_10 finals bracket (Wildcard → QF/EF → SF → PF → Grand Final), and
correctly tracks P5/P6 and P7/P8 as separate scoring tiers
- `afl.ts` standings sync adapter pulling from Squiggle API (no auth required)
- Finals line on standings display set to 10 for AFL seasons
- Substring name matching with longest-key-wins to prevent "Port Adelaide"
colliding with "Adelaide" when matching "Port Adelaide Power"
- 27 unit tests covering bracket logic, column-sum guarantees, and name matching
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Adds live standings sync and display for bracket-based sports (NBA/NHL),
so league members can see W/L tables and which teams their opponents drafted
during the regular season — not just after the playoff bracket is set.
- New `regular_season_standings` table with upsert-on-conflict sync
- Standings sync service with NHL (api-web.nhle.com) and NBA (ESPN) adapters,
externalId write-back for future syncs, and unmatched-team resolution UI
- `RegularSeasonStandings` component: flat (NBA) + division/wild-card (NHL) modes,
playoff line, TeamOwnerBadge, projected Brackt points (EV), mobile horizontal scroll
- Admin "Sync Standings" card + "Resolve Unmatched" UI on sports season page
- Admin manual standings edit hatch at /admin/sports-seasons/:id/regular-standings
- Show standings above bracket until matches exist; below once bracket is set
- `normalize-team-name` utility extracted to shared lib
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Implements a new "standard" timer mode alongside the existing chess clock
mode. In standard mode the per-pick timer resets to a fixed value after
every pick (no carry-over), and the speed selector shows plain time values
instead of named chess-clock presets.
Key changes:
- Add `draft_timer_mode` enum column to `seasons` table (migration 0053)
- `draft.start`: standard mode seeds timers at `draftIncrementTime` (the
per-pick value) rather than `draftInitialTime`
- `draft.make-pick`: three-way branch — standard resets, chess clock
owner earns increment, commissioner/admin pick leaves bank frozen
- `draft.force-manual-pick`: commissioner picks never earn bank time;
chess clock path uses a pre-pick snapshot to avoid a race window with
the 1-second timer loop
- `executeAutoPick` in draft-utils: auto picks never earn bank time;
chess clock path skips the DB update (timer already at 0)
- League creation and settings pages: mode-aware speed selector (raw
seconds for standard, named presets for chess clock); shared
`parseDraftSpeed` utility extracted to `app/lib/draft-timer.ts`
- Tests added for draft.start timer init and make-pick timer mode
behavior; force-manual-pick tests updated for new timer semantics
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Admins can now enable/disable a sport season from appearing in league
creation and pre-draft league settings. Non-draftable seasons are hidden
from selection but remain visible (and checked) if already linked to an
existing pre-draft league. Leagues in draft status or beyond are unaffected.
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
- Add unique index on (team_id, season_id, snapshot_date) in team_standings_snapshots
so concurrent writes can't produce duplicate rows (migration 0051)
- Rewrite createDailySnapshot to use INSERT ... ON CONFLICT DO UPDATE inside a
transaction, replacing the SELECT-then-insert/skip pattern (N+1 queries, race-prone)
- Remove early-exit guard in server/snapshots.ts background job so it always
upserts rather than skipping seasons that already have a snapshot for today
- Call createDailySnapshot in recalculateAffectedLeagues after recalculateStandings,
so every bracket score update refreshes today's snapshot; wrapped in try/catch so
a snapshot failure can't block Discord notifications
- Also call createDailySnapshot from the admin rescore and finalize-bracket actions
- Fix UTC date bug: replace toISOString().split('T')[0] with local date parts in
both standings.ts and server/snapshots.ts (and the 7-day lookback query)
- Convert all dynamic await import() calls in bracket.server.ts to static imports
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Closes#115
- Add `NHLSimulator` using NHL's divisional bracket format (top 3 per
division + 2 wildcards per conference, best-of-7 series, parity
factor 800). Elo ratings and seeding probabilities sourced from
elo.harvitronix.com/nhl/2025-2026 as of March 18, 2026.
- Add `nhl_bracket` to `simulatorTypeEnum` with migration.
- Register `NHLSimulator` in the simulator registry.
- Fix simulator type dropdown in admin to auto-generate from the
registry instead of a hardcoded list, so new simulators appear
automatically without a separate UI change.
Code review fixes applied to the simulator:
- Narrow `weightedPick` key type to the five seeding probability fields
(was `keyof NhlTeamData`, allowing `"elo"` which would silently
corrupt results)
- Remove uniform-random fallback in `weightedPick` — zero-weight draws
now return `undefined` and are skipped, preventing eliminated teams
from becoming wildcards
- Exclude unrecognized participants entirely (with a console warning)
instead of silently routing them into the Eastern wildcard pool
- Replace the confusing for-of loop over both conferences (with unused
`champ` variable and `!`-suppressed unitialized vars) with two
explicit sequential East/West blocks
- Track `effectiveN` for skipped degenerate draws so probability
denominators stay accurate; throw if all iterations are skipped
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* Grant sitewide admins commissioner-level access in leagues
- `isCommissioner()` now returns true for site admins, covering all
commissioner-gated loaders (league home, settings, sport season detail)
and draft API routes (start, pause, resume, rollback, replace-pick,
force-autopick, force-manual-pick, adjust-time-bank, make-pick)
- Added `hasCommissionerRecord()` (DB-only, no admin bypass) for the
"already a commissioner" duplicate-entry check in the settings action,
preventing a false positive when adding a site admin as commissioner
- `isCommissioner()` now runs the admin check and DB query in parallel
via Promise.all to avoid a serial roundtrip on every check
- Added "admin" to the `picked_by_type` enum (migration 0049) so picks
forced by a site admin are recorded accurately in the audit log rather
than as "commissioner"
- 8 unit tests covering both isCommissioner and hasCommissionerRecord
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* Fix draft.force-manual-pick tests broken by isUserAdminByClerkId
The route now calls isUserAdminByClerkId which hits database().query.users,
but the test's mock DB had no query.users entry. Add a vi.mock for
~/models/user and default isUserAdminByClerkId to false in beforeEach.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
---------
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* Add Discord webhook notifications for standings updates
Adds a Discord webhook integration that posts standings to a configured
Discord channel whenever scores change after a scoring event. Commissioners
set the webhook URL in league settings and can send a test notification.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* Fix Discord notification edge cases from code review
- Fix point delta sign: negative diffs now correctly show -5 pts not +-5 pts
- Replace hardcoded soccer emoji with a neutral bullet (works for all sports)
- Truncate embed description at Discord's 4096-char limit
- Thread eventId through processMatchResult and bracket batch handler so
scored matches appear in single-match notifications too
- Pass eventName to finalizeQualifyingPoints ("Final Standings") and
processSeasonStandings ("Season Complete") so those notifications have context
- Test notification now fetches current season to show "League 2025" format
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* Fix process-match-result tests: add sportsSeasons to db mock
recalculateAffectedLeagues now queries sportsSeasons to get the sport
name for Discord notifications; the test mock db needed the stub added.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
---------
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
## Partial bracket scoring
- `processMatchResult`: new exported function that scores a single match
immediately (loser → final placement, winner → provisional floor).
Called from `set-winner` and `set-round-winners` so points are awarded
as soon as a winner is set, before the full round is complete.
- `set-winner`: passes `eventName` to `processMatchResult`.
- `set-round-winners`: batches side effects — calls `recalculateAffectedLeagues`
and `updateProbabilitiesAfterResult` once after the loop instead of per-match
(`skipSideEffects: true` per match).
## Code review fixes
- **ROUND_CONFIG** (S1): extracted a `RoundScoringConfig` lookup table +
`getRoundConfig()` helper, eliminating three parallel `if/else` chains in
`processPlayoffEvent`, `processMatchResult`, and `getGuaranteedMinimumPosition`.
AFL template overrides live in `TEMPLATE_ROUND_CONFIG` with an explanatory
comment about why the `bracketTemplateId` guard is required.
- **skipSideEffects** (C2): new param on `processMatchResult`; bracket server
uses it to batch standings/probability recalc in `set-round-winners`.
- **eventName** (W1): passed through `processMatchResult` → `recalculateAffectedLeagues`.
- **Round validation** (W2): `set-round-winners` now guards `match.round === round`
before processing each assignment.
- **Comments** (C3/S3/W3): added notes on non-scoring loser assumption,
`isScoring ?? true` default, and AFL Semi-Finals template requirement.
## PlayoffBracket eliminated-teams fix + tests
- Fixed `computeEliminatedByRound` to track participant *appearances* (not just
wins), so AFL QF losers who advance to Semi-Finals via double-chance are
correctly excluded from the QF eliminated list.
- Extracted the logic as an exported pure function for testability.
- Added 4 tests: standard elimination, AFL QF loser → SF win, AFL QF loser →
SF loss, and normal advancement not protecting a later loser.
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
- Add nba_bracket SelectItem to simulator type dropdown in admin sport edit page
- Add 0046 to _journal.json (it was missing, causing Drizzle to never run the ALTER TYPE on prod)
- Add remediation migration 0047 with IF NOT EXISTS to safely add nba_bracket enum value on next deploy
- Improve error message in updateSport action to surface actual DB error instead of always blaming the slug
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
- NCAAM: KenPom AEM logistic formula (1/(1+exp(-diff/7.5))), data through 2025-26 March 15
- NCAAW: Barttorvik Barthag Log5 formula (A*(1-B)/(A*(1-B)+B*(1-A))), same bracket structure
- Both simulators: 50,000-iteration Monte Carlo, First Four simulation, honors completed matches
- Track E8+ placements only: champion, finalist, FF losers (3rd/4th), E8 losers (5th–8th)
- Add bracket configuration validation: null R64 slots must exactly match First Four mapping
- Fix DEFAULT_SCORING_RULES to 100/70/45/45/20/20/20/20 (3rd/4th=45, 5th–8th=20)
- Align scoring constants across simulate route, expected-values display, and server action
- Zero out EVs for non-bracket participants on every simulation run (prevents EV inflation)
- Add EV total invariant warning (expected ~340) on expected-values admin page
- 98 unit tests across NCAAM, NCAAW, and UCL simulators — all passing
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Replaces the hardcoded 2026 Men's region structure with a per-event
configurable system so the same ncaa_68 template works for Women's
March Madness (different region names and play-in placements each year).
- Add `bracket_region_config jsonb` column to `scoring_events`
- Export `ALL_16_SEEDS` and `BracketRegion`/`BracketPlayIn` interfaces
from bracket-templates.ts so both server and client share the type
- Admin bracket entry form now shows a "Configure Regions" section:
editable region names + add/remove play-in seed selectors (ShadCN
Select) per region; slot map updates live as config changes
- Server action parses region config from form, validates total = 68,
stores it on the event, and passes it to bracket generation
- `advanceFirstFourWinner` reads stored `bracketRegionConfig` from the
event row first, falls back to template.regions for existing events
- Fix opponentSeed formula (was `seedNum <= 8 ? 17-n : n`, always `17-n`)
- Remove duplicate ALL_SEEDS inline definitions (now a shared constant)
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
- New `event_starts_at timestamptz` column on `scoring_events`; backfilled
from `event_date` (midnight UTC) via migration for all existing rows
- Admin create/edit forms consolidated from separate Date + Time inputs into
a single `datetime-local` field; server derives `eventDate` from the UTC
date portion of `eventStartsAt` so calendar-window queries continue to work
- Edit form pre-fill computed client-side via useEffect to avoid server-timezone
mismatch for non-UTC admins
- Sort fix: replaced `eventDate ?? earliestGameTime.split("T")[0]` with
`toEventSortKey` helper that prefers `earliestGameTime ?? eventDate` so
bracket events with only per-game timestamps sort in the correct calendar position
- DB sort queries updated to use `eventStartsAt` as a tiebreaker after `eventDate`
- F1/IndyCar/golf events now populate `earliestGameTime` from `eventStartsAt`,
giving time display in `UpcomingCalendarPanel`
- Bulk import gains optional `HH:MM` (UTC) third column
- New unit tests for `toEventSortKey` and `eventStartsAt` model behavior
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* Add playoff match games and odds storage
Introduces two new tables for bracket matchup detail storage:
- `playoff_match_games`: tracks individual game schedules within a
series matchup (game number, scheduledAt, status, per-game scores,
winner). Supports scheduled/complete/postponed status enum.
- `playoff_match_odds`: stores moneyline odds per participant per
matchup (single upsert record, no isLatest complexity).
Includes:
- Drizzle schema + relations with CASCADE deletes from playoff_matches
- Migration 0040_fat_puma.sql
- playoff-match-game.ts model with pure helpers: computeSeriesScore,
isSeriesComplete, getSeriesLeader — plus full CRUD
- playoff-match-odds.ts model with pure helpers: americanToImpliedProbability,
impliedProbabilityToAmerican, normalizeOdds — plus upsert/read/delete
- findPlayoffMatchesByEventId and findPlayoffMatchById updated to
include games and odds in their query results
- Bracket server route: add-game, update-game, delete-game,
upsert-odds, delete-odds actions
- Bracket admin UI: expandable per-match panel for game schedule
management and moneyline odds entry
- 41 new unit tests (18 game + 23 odds), all 810 tests passing
https://claude.ai/code/session_01Twt3D1bsEK3eXUhMaz6ee7
* Code review fixes: type safety, abstraction, and React correctness
- Derive PlayoffMatchGameStatus from schema enum instead of hardcoding
the string union, eliminating the duplicate source of truth
- updateGame now returns PlayoffMatchGame | undefined to reflect reality
when no row matches the ID
- Remove TOCTOU check-then-act in update-game action: call updateGame
directly and check the return value instead of a pre-flight findGameById
- Add status enum validation before the cast in update-game action
- Move impliedProbability computation inside upsertMatchOdds so callers
only provide moneylineOdds; the model owns the derivation
- Remove unnecessary dynamic import of americanToImpliedProbability in
the upsert-odds action (was already imported from the same module)
- Fix React list reconciliation bug: replace bare <> fragment with
<Fragment key={match.id}> so React can correctly track rows
https://claude.ai/code/session_01Twt3D1bsEK3eXUhMaz6ee7
---------
Co-authored-by: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
Implements a 16-team UEFA Champions League knockout bracket simulator
using blended Elo + futures odds probabilities (70/30 split). Tracks
integer placement counts per tier to avoid fractional accumulation
drift, ensuring total EV sums to exactly 340 by construction.
- New UCLSimulator class reading live playoffMatches from DB
- Respects completed match results (eliminated teams get exact EV)
- New ucl_bracket simulator_type enum value + migration
- Registered in simulator registry; added to admin sport selector
- 18 unit tests covering math, bracket path, and integration scenarios
Fixes#113
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
When a participant wins a bracket round, they immediately earn provisional
"floor" points (the averaged minimum they'd receive if eliminated next round).
These update as they advance and are replaced by finalized scores on elimination.
Key changes:
- Add `is_partial_score` column to `participant_results` (migration 0038)
- `processPlayoffEvent`: assign provisional position 5 to non-scoring round
winners; assign round-appropriate floors to scoring round winners via
`getGuaranteedMinimumPosition`; add catch-all for unrecognized round names
- `upsertParticipantResult`: guard against un-finalizing rows (never overwrite
isPartialScore=false with true)
- `calculateBracketPoints`: new function averaging tied bracket tiers
(5-8 → 20 pts, 3-4 → avg, 1-2 solo); used in `calculateTeamScore` for
playoff_bracket pattern (pattern-aware, doesn't affect F1/golf scoring)
- `PlayoffBracket`: "In Contention" table for still-active participants;
AFL double-chance fix (participants who won a later match excluded from
earlier round's loser list); correct `nextRank` starting position
- Server loader: batch owner DB queries (one query vs N+1); deduplicate
participantPoints; use calculateBracketPoints for bracket point display
- Clean up Phase/Q-number tracking comments throughout scoring-calculator.ts
- 3 new tests for non-scoring round provisional floor behavior
Also includes a dev admin bypass via DEV_ADMIN_CLERK_ID env var (separate
change on this branch, not part of floor scoring feature).
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* feat: EV simulation framework with F1 Monte Carlo simulator
- Add EV snapshot tables (participant_ev_snapshots, team_ev_snapshots) and simulation_status column on sports seasons
- Add ev-snapshot model with upsert and history query functions
- Add simulator framework: types, bracket/F1/golf simulators, registry
- F1 simulator: vig-removed ICM weighted draw (pre-season) + race-by-race Monte Carlo from current standings (in-season); per-position column normalization to prevent floating-point EV drift
- Add admin simulate route and Run Simulation button on sports season page
- Rework futures-odds admin page to save odds then run simulation in one action
- Remove recalculate-probabilities route (superseded by simulate route)
- Remove EV trend chart panel and associated DB queries
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* feat: map simulators to sports via simulatorType field
Adds a `simulator_type` enum column to the `sports` table so each sport
can be assigned a specific simulation algorithm rather than deriving it
from the sports season's scoring pattern.
- Add `simulatorTypeEnum` (f1_standings, indycar_standings,
golf_qualifying_points, playoff_bracket) + `simulatorType` nullable
column on `sports` table; migration 0037
- Rewrite simulator registry to key off `SimulatorType` instead of
`ScoringPattern`; indycar_standings shares F1Simulator for now
- `findSportsSeasonById` now returns `SportsSeasonWithSport` so callers
have typed access to `sport.simulatorType`
- Simulate and futures-odds actions read `sport.simulatorType`; guard
fires before setting `simulationStatus: running`
- Admin sport edit page gains a Simulator Type dropdown
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
---------
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
- SeasonStandings: highlight rows for the logged-in user's drafted participants
with electric accent (in-points) or muted (outside points) left border + star icon
- Loader: derive userParticipantIds from current user's teams and draft picks
- EventSchedule: hide type badge for schedule_event; show "Results Pending" only
when event is past and not yet marked complete (matches admin page logic)
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* Redesign autodraft queue system with three-state control and queue-only constraint
Core Logic & Database:
- Add `queue_only` boolean column to `autodraft_settings` (migration 0031)
- Rename autodraft UI states: Off / Next Pick / All Picks (while_on mode maps to All Picks)
- `autoPickForTeam`: respects new `queueOnly` param — skips EV fallback when enabled
- `executeAutoPick`: auto-disables autodraft + emits socket event when queue empties with queueOnly ON (AC3)
- `autodraft-updated` socket event now includes `queueOnly` field
Mobile UI Overhaul:
- Rename "Lobby" tab → "Available" (AC6)
- Add new "Queue" tab to mobile bottom nav with drag-reorder, per-item Draft buttons, and autodraft controls (AC5)
- Controls tab retains commissioner tools, notifications, exit; queue controls moved to Queue tab
- Turn indicator appears on both Available and Queue tabs
Components:
- `AutodraftSettings`: replaces toggle+radio with three-state button group (Off | Next Pick | All Picks) + "Only autodraft from queue" switch (AC1, AC2)
- `QueueSection`: adds `canPick` prop + per-item Draft buttons for instant drafting when on the clock
Desktop (AC4):
- Sidebar QueueSection unchanged in position; gains same three-state controls and Draft buttons
Tests (AC7):
- `autodraft.test.ts`: updated for queueOnly field and socket event shape
- `timer-autodraft.test.ts`: new tests for queue-only constraint, auto-shutoff transitions, and all three autodraft states
https://claude.ai/code/session_01PYhJicAStoJ2u6q6dV1naB
* fix: remove erroneous ?? fallbacks in autodraft socket emissions and add autoPickForTeam tests
- Remove `?? true` default on queueOnly in queue-empty auto-disable socket emit
(line 488) — was dead code since the column is NOT NULL, but semantically wrong
and would have caused client-side UI desync if the type ever relaxed
- Remove `?? false` default on the next_pick auto-disable path for consistency
- Add app/models/__tests__/auto-pick.test.ts with 6 tests covering the queueOnly
constraint: empty queue, all items drafted, partial queue skip, and EV fallback
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* fix: add missing queueOnly prop to AutodraftSettings test fixtures
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* test: rewrite AutodraftSettings tests for three-state button group UI
The component was redesigned from a switch + radio buttons to Off/Next Pick/All Picks
buttons with a separate queue-only Switch toggle. Updated 17 stale tests and added 5
new tests covering the queue-only toggle and the All Picks/Off button interactions.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
---------
Co-authored-by: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
- Fix settings action silently resetting timer values when draft speed
select is disabled (add null guard before overwriting draftInitialTime/
draftIncrementTime)
- Make timer decrement and pick increment atomic using SQL expressions to
prevent read-modify-write races between the timer loop and HTTP handlers
- Add UNIQUE INDEX on (season_id, pick_number) in draft_picks to prevent
duplicate picks from concurrent requests (TOCTOU guard)
- Add socket join-draft team ownership validation via DB query
- Add iteration cap to autodraft chain while loop (max = totalTeams)
- Add draftPaused re-check before firing autodraft chain in make-pick
and force-manual-pick
- Consolidate all snake draft calculations into calculatePickInfo (DRY);
remove duplicated logic from timer.ts, make-pick, force-manual-pick,
executeAutoPick, and checkAndTriggerNextAutodraft
- Fix calculatePickInfo to return snake-adjusted pickInRound matching
draftOrder values instead of raw pre-snake value
- Fix timer-update socket events to emit nextPickNumber after a pick
instead of the already-completed currentPickNumber
- Fix force-manual-pick to validate submitted teamId matches the team
whose turn it actually is at the given pick number
- Replace inline timer init in draft.start with deleteSeasonTimers +
initializeDraftTimers model functions (dead code fix)
- Fix draft loader to not crash when getTeamQueue fails (returns [])
- Fix misleading 403 message for commissioner picks
- Remove dead hidden inputs from league settings form
- Document connectedTeams single-instance limitation in socket.ts
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* feat: sync odds-based EV to participants table for draft room ranking
When admin enters futures odds or manual probabilities, the calculated EV
is now synced from participantExpectedValues to participants.expectedValue.
This closes the gap where EVs were calculated but never reflected in the
draft room ranking. Also changes expectedValue from integer to decimal(10,2)
for better precision, and displays "—" for participants with no odds data.
https://claude.ai/code/session_01JWG2zg2EMzCn6RgEufPC1T
* fix: correct expectedValue type to string in participants route
Missed instance of `expectedValue: 0` (number) that failed typecheck
after schema change from integer to decimal.
https://claude.ai/code/session_01JWG2zg2EMzCn6RgEufPC1T
---------
Co-authored-by: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
- Add FIFA_48 bracket template with 12 groups of 4, knockout stage of 32
- Add tournament groups schema, model, and GroupStageDisplay component
- Add projected/expected value scoring to standings and team breakdowns
- Add docker-compose for local PostgreSQL development
- Move DRAFT_ORDER_IMPLEMENTATION.md to plans directory
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Implements Phase 5.2 of the EV system with Harville-Malmuth Independent Chip Model
for calculating participant placement probabilities from futures odds.
## Key Features
### ICM Probability Calculator
- Implements Harville-Malmuth method for distributing probabilities
- Converts American odds to championship probabilities
- Generates P(1st) through P(8th) for all participants
- Column-normalized: each placement sums to 100% across all teams
- Works with any number of participants (not limited to 8)
### Admin UI - Futures Odds Entry
- Enter American odds (e.g., +550, -200) for championship futures
- Live preview of ICM-calculated probability distributions
- Displays all 8 placement probabilities
- Persists odds for editing on subsequent visits
- Automatic probability normalization (removes bookmaker vig)
### Database Schema Updates
- Renamed participant_expected_values.season_id → sports_season_id
- Updated foreign key to reference sports_seasons instead of seasons
- Added source_odds field to store original futures odds
- Migration 0025: Column rename and FK update
- Migration 0026: Add source_odds field
### Model Layer
- participant-expected-value: CRUD operations for probability distributions
- Supports multiple probability sources (manual, futures_odds, elo_simulation)
- Automatic EV calculation based on league scoring rules
- Probability validation and normalization
### Service Layer
- icm-calculator: Harville-Malmuth probability distribution
- probability-engine: Odds conversion and Elo utilities (for future use)
- bracket-simulator: Monte Carlo simulation (for future hybrid approach)
- ev-calculator: Expected value computation from probabilities
## Technical Details
- Uses exponential decay favoring top positions for strong teams
- Preserves championship probability ordering in final distributions
- Row sums vary (strong teams ~100%, weak teams lower)
- All probabilities between 0-1, mathematically valid
- Comprehensive test suite: 97 tests passing
## Future Enhancements
- Hybrid approach: ICM pre-playoffs, bracket simulation during playoffs
- Integration with league-specific scoring rules
- Historical probability tracking for accuracy analysis
🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.com/claude-code)
Co-Authored-By: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
- Added a comprehensive plan for bracket expansion, including support for 4, 8, 16, 32, and 68 team formats.
- Introduced a template-based bracket system with predefined templates for NCAA March Madness, NFL Playoffs, NBA Playoffs, and simple brackets.
- Updated UI flow for bracket creation, allowing admins to select templates and assign participants flexibly.
- Enhanced database schema to accommodate new scoring rules and bracket templates.
- Proposed updates to scoring logic to handle non-scoring rounds and participant placements correctly.
- Documented implementation phases for gradual rollout of new features.
- Addressed critical bugs in the playoff event processing and scoring logic, ensuring proper advancement and scoring rules across multiple leagues.
- Add scoringPattern and eventType enums for 4 scoring patterns
(single_elimination_playoff, page_playoff, season_standings, qualifying_points)
- Add 8 placement point fields to seasons table (1st-8th) with defaults
- Add scoring pattern fields to sportsSeasons table (scoringPattern, totalMajors, etc.)
- Create 10 new tables:
- scoring_events: Individual games, tournaments, races
- event_results: Participant results per event
- playoff_matches: Bracket tracking for playoffs
- participant_qualifying_totals: QP aggregation for golf/tennis
- qualifying_point_config: Configurable QP values per sport
- team_sport_scores: Aggregated scores per sport
- team_standings: Current standings with tiebreakers
- team_standings_snapshots: Daily snapshots for 7-day tracking
- participant_expected_values: EV calculations per league
- participant_season_results: F1 current points tracking
- Add all necessary relations for new tables
- Update test fixtures with new required scoring fields
