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7 commits

Author SHA1 Message Date
Chris Parsons
2848231235
Canonical tournament layer: schema + backfill (1/2) (#365)
* refactor(schema): rename per-window tables to season_* prefix

Renames participants, participant_expected_values, participant_qualifying_totals,
participant_results, participant_surface_elos to season_* prefixed names.
Renames event_results.participant_id to season_participant_id.
Phase 1a of canonical tournament layer migration.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* refactor: rename participant.ts model file to season-participant.ts

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* refactor(models): update model layer to use renamed schema exports

Updated all model files to use the renamed schema exports from Task 1:
- participants → seasonParticipants
- participantExpectedValues → seasonParticipantExpectedValues
- participantQualifyingTotals → seasonParticipantQualifyingTotals
- participantResults → seasonParticipantResults
- participantSurfaceElos → seasonParticipantSurfaceElos
- eventResults.participantId → eventResults.seasonParticipantId
- db.query relation accessors updated
- Relation field .participant → .seasonParticipant where applicable
- Import paths updated: ./participant → ./season-participant

Files updated (14 model files + 3 test files):
- draft-pick.ts
- draft-utils.ts
- event-result.ts
- group-stage-match.ts
- participant-result.ts
- qualifying-points.ts
- scoring-calculator.ts
- scoring-event.ts
- sports-season.ts
- surface-elo.ts
- team-score-events.ts
- cs2-major-stage.ts
- golf-skills.ts
- participant-expected-value.ts
- __tests__/sports-season.clone.test.ts
- __tests__/auto-pick.test.ts
- __tests__/executeAutoPick.timer.test.ts

Typecheck errors decreased: 779 → 499 (280 fewer)
All model file errors related to renamed schemas resolved.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* refactor(routes): update route layer to use renamed schema exports

- Update model import from ~/models/participant to ~/models/season-participant
- Rename schema.participants to schema.seasonParticipants
- Rename schema.participantResults to schema.seasonParticipantResults
- Rename db.query.participants to db.query.seasonParticipants
- Update 9 route files and 1 test file

Affected files:
- admin.sports-seasons.$id.events.$eventId.bracket.server.ts
- admin.sports-seasons.$id.participants.tsx
- api/draft.force-manual-pick.ts
- api/draft.make-pick.ts
- api/draft.replace-pick.ts
- api/seasons.$seasonId.draft.ts
- leagues/$leagueId.draft-board.$seasonId.tsx
- leagues/$leagueId.sports-seasons.$sportsSeasonId.server.ts
- admin/__tests__/sports-seasons-participants.test.ts

Error count reduced from 499 to 453 (46 errors fixed).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* refactor(routes): update route files for schema rename

Update route imports from ~/models/participant to ~/models/season-participant
and fix references to .participant/.participantId on event results to use
.seasonParticipant/.seasonParticipantId after schema rename.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* refactor(services): update simulators and services for renamed schema

Update all simulators, services, and server files to use renamed schema tables:
- participants → seasonParticipants
- participantExpectedValues → seasonParticipantExpectedValues
- participantResults → seasonParticipantResults
- eventResults.participantId → eventResults.seasonParticipantId

Files updated:
- 20 sport simulators (NBA, NHL, NFL, MLB, etc.)
- probability-updater.ts
- standings-sync/index.ts
- sports-data-sync.server.ts
- server/socket.ts

Typecheck errors reduced from 365 to 0.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* migration: rename per-window tables to season_* prefix

* fix(tests): update mock query keys after participants table rename

Change mock db.query.participants to db.query.seasonParticipants in test
files to match the schema rename from commit 66145a9. This fixes
"Cannot read properties of undefined (reading 'findFirst'/'findMany')"
errors that occurred when production code queries db.query.seasonParticipants
but test mocks only defined the old participants key.

Files updated:
- app/services/simulations/__tests__/world-cup-simulator.test.ts
- app/routes/api/__tests__/draft.force-manual-pick.test.ts
- app/routes/api/__tests__/draft.force-manual-pick.timer-mode.test.ts
- app/routes/api/__tests__/draft.make-pick.timer-mode.test.ts
- server/__tests__/timer-autodraft.test.ts
- app/models/__tests__/team-score-events.test.ts

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* fix(tests): update remaining mock paths and keys after schema rename

* fix(tests): final two mock stragglers after schema rename

- draft-pick.test.ts: assertion on db.query.participantQualifyingTotals
- process-match-result.test.ts: mock key participants → seasonParticipants

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* chore: add post-phase1a baseline capture (temp, for diff verification)

* chore: capture pre-migration baselines

* chore: remove post-phase1a capture helper after verification

* schema: add canonical tournament & participant tables

Adds tournaments, participants (canonical), tournament_results, and
participant_surface_elos (canonical). Adds nullable tournament_id to
scoring_events and nullable participant_id to season_participants.
Phase 1b of canonical tournament layer migration.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* feat(models): add canonical tournament, participant, result, surface-elo models

Adds CRUD modules for the canonical tables created in commit 775b905.
Each module mirrors existing app/models conventions (database() from
~/database/context, schema from ~/database/schema, mock-based tests).

Key implementation notes:
- participant.ts exports use "Canonical" prefix (CanonicalParticipant,
  createCanonicalParticipant, etc.) to avoid collision with existing
  season-participant.ts exports
- All four models include comprehensive unit tests following the
  audit-log.test.ts pattern
- Tests use mocked db responses (no real database access)
- Upsert functions use onConflictDoUpdate for appropriate unique constraints

Part of Phase 1b of canonical tournament layer migration.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* migration: create canonical tables, add nullable FKs

* scripts: add extractTournamentIdentity helper for backfill

Pure function that derives canonical (name, year) identity from a
scoring_events row, stripping trailing 4-digit years from the name or
falling back to eventDate. Used by the Phase 2 backfill to group
per-window events into canonical tournaments.

* scripts: add backfill orchestrator for canonical layer

Populates canonical tournaments, participants, tournament_results, and
participant_surface_elos from per-window data for qualifying-points
sports. Skips already-linked rows, is idempotent, and supports dry-run
mode.

Critical invariants enforced by the implementation:
- qualifying_points_awarded is never copied to tournament_results
- season_participant_qualifying_totals is never touched
- conflicting surface-Elo values between windows raise a loud error
  (recorded in report.errors) rather than overwriting

* scripts: add backfill CLI with dry-run default

Wires backfill-canonical-layer.ts to a CLI entry point exposed as
`npm run backfill:canonical`. Defaults to --dry-run; requires --apply
to actually write. Supports --sport=<uuid> to limit to a single sport.
Exits 2 if the backfill reports errors (e.g., surface-Elo conflicts).

* fix(backfill-cli): wrap runBackfill in DatabaseContext.run

The orchestrator uses database() from ~/database/context, which requires
AsyncLocalStorage to be populated. Wrap the CLI invocation with
DatabaseContext.run(db, ...) using server/db's cached connection pool.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* fix(backfill-cli): exit 0 on success so pg pool doesn't block

The cached postgres connection pool keeps the Node event loop open after
main() returns. Explicit process.exit(0) on success mirrors the pattern
in scripts/capture-baseline.ts.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>

---------

Co-authored-by: Chris Parsons <chrisp@extrahop.com>
Co-authored-by: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-01 20:13:18 -07:00
Chris Parsons
ef0ddeff39
Fix simulator brackets: NHL bracket-aware mode, MLB/NBA/WNBA sourceElo support (#358)
* Fix NHL bracket-aware simulation and MLB sourceElo support

NHL: NHLSimulator now checks for a populated playoff_game bracket before
falling back to season-projection mode. When a bracket exists (e.g. via
simple_16 template), it simulates the actual bracket structure, respecting
completed matches and using ELO+odds blending for the rest — matching the
pattern used by Snooker, NBA, and UCL simulators.

MLB: MLBSimulator now reads sourceElo from participantExpectedValues and
converts it to an effective RDif (via eloToRDif), overriding the hardcoded
TEAMS_DATA.rdif when present. This wires up the expected-wins admin form
(which saves sourceElo) to the simulation engine.

https://claude.ai/code/session_01139GJVg2gqgDjcUzqhnBNn

* Wire sourceElo from projected wins form into NBA, NHL, and WNBA simulators

All three simulators had entries in simulator-config.ts (enabling the projected
wins form in the admin UI) but silently ignored the sourceElo that was saved.

NBA: Both bracket-aware and season-projection modes now load sourceElo and
prefer it over hardcoded TEAMS_DATA elo. Added resolvedElo field to TeamEntry
so eloOfEntry() uses the correct value throughout.

NHL: Season-projection mode now fetches sourceElo + sourceOdds in a single
parallel query (removing the duplicate evRows query). Bracket-aware mode also
loads sourceElo alongside sourceOdds. Both modes use sourceElo > TEAMS_DATA > 1400.

WNBA: resolveElo() now accepts sourceElo as an optional highest-priority
argument. The evRows query fetches sourceElo alongside sourceOdds and passes
it through when building team entries.

https://claude.ai/code/session_01139GJVg2gqgDjcUzqhnBNn

* Add review fixes: NHL R1 validation, WNBA sourceElo tests, NHL bracket unit tests

- NHLSimulator.simulateBracket: remove unused nameById variable
- NHLSimulator.simulateBracket: validate all R1 participants before entering
  Monte Carlo loop; throws with a clear message if any slot is missing
- wnba-simulator.test.ts: add 5 tests covering the sourceElo override parameter
  on resolveElo() (overrides SRS, overrides futures, overrides fallback,
  null/undefined fall through to normal priority chain)
- nhl-simulator.test.ts: add full bracket-aware integration suite (10 tests)
  covering fallback to season-projection, structure validation errors, probability
  distributions, fully-decided champion, and source tag

https://claude.ai/code/session_01139GJVg2gqgDjcUzqhnBNn

* Fix TS error: add resolvedElo to makeEntry in nhl-simulator.test.ts

TeamEntry requires resolvedElo after the simulator refactor.

https://claude.ai/code/session_01139GJVg2gqgDjcUzqhnBNn

* Fix lint: replace non-null assertions with null-safe alternatives in NHL test

https://claude.ai/code/session_01139GJVg2gqgDjcUzqhnBNn

---------

Co-authored-by: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-04-30 08:33:57 -07:00
Chris Parsons
9e5d1cda5f
Fix NHL simulator seeding bugs and code quality issues (#281)
* Fix NHL simulator dynamic seeding and code quality issues

- Replace hardcoded seeding probabilities with standings-based Monte Carlo
  projection: simulates remaining regular season games per team using Elo
  win probability vs. a league-average opponent, so mathematically eliminated
  teams naturally fall out of playoff contention
- Fix double-simulation bug in wildcard pool: all 16 conference teams are now
  projected exactly once via sortProjected([...divA, ...divB].map(projectTeam)),
  then filtered — wildcard pool no longer re-runs simulateProjectedPoints with
  fresh randomness independent of the division seeding
- Move ProjectedTeam interface, projectTeam(), and sortProjected() to module
  scope (defined once, not recreated on every buildConferenceBracket call)
- Replace conference-level participant count check (east < 8 || west < 8) with
  per-division checks (each division < 3) for a more actionable error message
- Add logger.warn when standings.length === 0 so admins know the sim is running
  without synced data
- Remove unused easternTeams/westernTeams variables
- Simplify test: replace Object.fromEntries pattern with a plain for..of loop

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* Fix oxlint errors in NHL simulator and tests

- Replace non-null assertions (data!) with optional chaining (data?.x ?? "")
- Move makeEntry helper to module scope to avoid recreating on every call

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

---------

Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-04-08 21:33:33 -04:00
Chris Parsons
46a2e9c199
Tune NHL simulator: Vegas futures blending + parity factor calibration (closes #168) (#202)
- Add 70/30 Elo + Vegas futures blending for per-game win probability,
  mirroring the UCL simulator pattern; falls back to Elo-only when no
  sourceOdds are stored in participantExpectedValues
- Adjust PARITY_FACTOR to better match Vegas championship implied
  probabilities (COL was ~12% vs ~20% market expectation)
- Add 15 unit tests covering name normalization, team data lookup,
  parity-factor math, seeding probability sanity, and eliminated-team checks

Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-22 00:14:18 -07:00
Chris Parsons
618bc57ec1
Replace console.* with structured logger, fix no-inferrable-types (closes #98) (#199)
- Add app/lib/logger.ts: dev passes through to console; prod routes errors
  to Sentry.captureException and warnings to Sentry.captureMessage, with
  extra context preserved. Uses captureMessage (not captureException) for
  string-only args to avoid fabricated stack traces.
- Add server/logger.ts: dev passes through; prod silences log/info but
  keeps warn/error on stderr (Sentry not initialized in that process).
- Replace all console.* calls across 44 app files and 4 server files.
- Upgrade no-console from warn → error in oxlint; exempt logger files and
  scripts/** via overrides.
- Add typescript/no-inferrable-types rule; fix violations in services and
  simulators. Exempt test files (intentional string widening for switch/if
  tests would break under literal type inference).

Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-21 13:41:39 -07:00
Chris Parsons
4bffa40606
Fix oxlint warnings: no-shadow, consistent-function-scoping, no-non-null-assertion, and others (#196)
* Fix no-shadow and consistent-function-scoping lint violations

Resolves all 11 no-shadow and 16 consistent-function-scoping oxlint
warnings and promotes both rules to errors in .oxlintrc.json.

no-shadow: renamed Drizzle callback params (sports→s, matches→m,
seasons→s) to avoid shadowing outer imports; removed shadowed
destructures (eq, inArray) from where callbacks; renamed inner
template→bracketTemplate, prev→currentTimers, season→ss, name→teamName
(with name: teamName fix to preserve semantics).

consistent-function-scoping: moved formatDate, getRankBadge,
getMovementIndicator, getPositionBadge, getStatusBadge, toDateStr,
elo (×2), weightedPick, sortByMatchNumber (×2) to module scope;
moved formatTime (×2), isValidLeagueName, getDraftTimes,
makeSeasonQueues to file scope in test files.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* Fix no-non-null-assertion lint violations and promote to error

Eliminates all 208 no-non-null-assertion warnings across 38 files.
Promotes typescript/no-non-null-assertion from warn to error in
.oxlintrc.json.

Fix patterns applied:
- Map.get(key)! after .has() check → extract with get() + null guard
- Map.get(key)! on pre-populated count maps → ?? 0 default
- .set(id, map.get(id)! + 1) increment → ?? 0 before adding
- participant1Id!/participant2Id! on DB matches → ?? "" fallback
- array.find()! in tests → guard + throw or expect().toBeDefined()
- bracketTemplateCache.get(id)! → null guard extract
- Various nullable field accesses → optional chain or ?? default

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* Fix prefer-add-event-listener, no-unassigned-import, require-module-specifiers

Resolves all 9 remaining non-console lint warnings and promotes all
three rules to errors in .oxlintrc.json.

- prefer-add-event-listener: converted onchange/onclick/onload
  assignments to addEventListener in useDraftNotifications.ts and
  admin.data-sync.tsx; stored changeHandler ref for proper cleanup
  with removeEventListener
- no-unassigned-import: configured rule with allow list for legitimate
  side-effect imports (*.css, @testing-library/jest-dom,
  @testing-library/cypress/add-commands)
- require-module-specifiers: removed redundant `export {}` from
  cypress/support/e2e.ts (file already has an import)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* Fix TypeScript errors from no-non-null-assertion fixes

Two fixes introduced by the non-null assertion cleanup produced type
errors:

- scoring-event.ts: `?? ""` was wrong type for a participant object map;
  restructured to explicit null guards so TypeScript can narrow correctly
- standings-sync/index.ts: `?? null` after name-match lookup lost the
  truthy guarantee, causing TS18047 on the write-back block; added
  `participant &&` guard before accessing its properties

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* Add npm run typecheck as Stop hook in Claude settings

Runs a full project typecheck at the end of each Claude turn so type
errors surface as feedback before the next message.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

---------

Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-21 10:59:51 -07:00
Chris Parsons
6f5ea35952
Add NHL playoff simulator and fix simulator dropdown (#166)
Closes #115

- Add `NHLSimulator` using NHL's divisional bracket format (top 3 per
  division + 2 wildcards per conference, best-of-7 series, parity
  factor 800). Elo ratings and seeding probabilities sourced from
  elo.harvitronix.com/nhl/2025-2026 as of March 18, 2026.
- Add `nhl_bracket` to `simulatorTypeEnum` with migration.
- Register `NHLSimulator` in the simulator registry.
- Fix simulator type dropdown in admin to auto-generate from the
  registry instead of a hardcoded list, so new simulators appear
  automatically without a separate UI change.

Code review fixes applied to the simulator:
- Narrow `weightedPick` key type to the five seeding probability fields
  (was `keyof NhlTeamData`, allowing `"elo"` which would silently
  corrupt results)
- Remove uniform-random fallback in `weightedPick` — zero-weight draws
  now return `undefined` and are skipped, preventing eliminated teams
  from becoming wildcards
- Exclude unrecognized participants entirely (with a console warning)
  instead of silently routing them into the Eastern wildcard pool
- Replace the confusing for-of loop over both conferences (with unused
  `champ` variable and `!`-suppressed unitialized vars) with two
  explicit sequential East/West blocks
- Track `effectiveN` for skipped degenerate draws so probability
  denominators stay accurate; throw if all iterations are skipped

Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-18 01:23:53 -07:00