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Author SHA1 Message Date
Chris Parsons
2e2d8db777
Add MLB playoff simulator with AL/NL division standings, fixes #121 (#225)
* Add MLB playoff simulator with AL/NL division standings, fixes #121

- New `mlb-simulator.ts`: 50k Monte Carlo sim drawing division winners
  (weighted by p_div) and 3 WC teams per league, then simulating
  WC best-of-3 → DS best-of-5 → LCS best-of-7 → World Series.
  Elo parity factor 350; blends Vegas odds 30/70 when sourceOdds available.
- New `standings-sync/mlb.ts`: adapter for free statsapi.mlb.com API,
  mapping AL/NL conferences, division ranks, streaks, home/away/L10 splits.
- New `mlb-divisions` display mode in RegularSeasonStandings: shows 1 division
  winner per division section + Wild Card section with 3-spot playoff line,
  headings read "AL/NL League" instead of "Conference".
- Refactored buildNhlSections/buildMlbSections into shared buildDivisionSections
  (divisionSpots + wcSpots params); conferenceLabel now flows through group
  objects rather than being derived from displayMode in the render.
- DB migration 0062 adds `mlb_bracket` to simulator_type enum.
- 37 new tests across simulator, adapter, and component.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* Fix flaky tennis simulator test: increase trials and lower threshold

500 trials with a ~3–5% expected win rate had enough variance to
occasionally land below the 0.03 threshold (~2% failure rate).
Bumping to 2000 trials reduces the std dev by 2x; lowering the
threshold to 0.02 keeps the assertion meaningful (still well above
random 0.78%) while eliminating the flakiness.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

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Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-25 08:47:02 -07:00