Implements a 16-team UEFA Champions League knockout bracket simulator
using blended Elo + futures odds probabilities (70/30 split). Tracks
integer placement counts per tier to avoid fractional accumulation
drift, ensuring total EV sums to exactly 340 by construction.
- New UCLSimulator class reading live playoffMatches from DB
- Respects completed match results (eliminated teams get exact EV)
- New ucl_bracket simulator_type enum value + migration
- Registered in simulator registry; added to admin sport selector
- 18 unit tests covering math, bracket path, and integration scenarios
Fixes#113
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
When a participant wins a bracket round, they immediately earn provisional
"floor" points (the averaged minimum they'd receive if eliminated next round).
These update as they advance and are replaced by finalized scores on elimination.
Key changes:
- Add `is_partial_score` column to `participant_results` (migration 0038)
- `processPlayoffEvent`: assign provisional position 5 to non-scoring round
winners; assign round-appropriate floors to scoring round winners via
`getGuaranteedMinimumPosition`; add catch-all for unrecognized round names
- `upsertParticipantResult`: guard against un-finalizing rows (never overwrite
isPartialScore=false with true)
- `calculateBracketPoints`: new function averaging tied bracket tiers
(5-8 → 20 pts, 3-4 → avg, 1-2 solo); used in `calculateTeamScore` for
playoff_bracket pattern (pattern-aware, doesn't affect F1/golf scoring)
- `PlayoffBracket`: "In Contention" table for still-active participants;
AFL double-chance fix (participants who won a later match excluded from
earlier round's loser list); correct `nextRank` starting position
- Server loader: batch owner DB queries (one query vs N+1); deduplicate
participantPoints; use calculateBracketPoints for bracket point display
- Clean up Phase/Q-number tracking comments throughout scoring-calculator.ts
- 3 new tests for non-scoring round provisional floor behavior
Also includes a dev admin bypass via DEV_ADMIN_CLERK_ID env var (separate
change on this branch, not part of floor scoring feature).
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* feat: EV simulation framework with F1 Monte Carlo simulator
- Add EV snapshot tables (participant_ev_snapshots, team_ev_snapshots) and simulation_status column on sports seasons
- Add ev-snapshot model with upsert and history query functions
- Add simulator framework: types, bracket/F1/golf simulators, registry
- F1 simulator: vig-removed ICM weighted draw (pre-season) + race-by-race Monte Carlo from current standings (in-season); per-position column normalization to prevent floating-point EV drift
- Add admin simulate route and Run Simulation button on sports season page
- Rework futures-odds admin page to save odds then run simulation in one action
- Remove recalculate-probabilities route (superseded by simulate route)
- Remove EV trend chart panel and associated DB queries
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* feat: map simulators to sports via simulatorType field
Adds a `simulator_type` enum column to the `sports` table so each sport
can be assigned a specific simulation algorithm rather than deriving it
from the sports season's scoring pattern.
- Add `simulatorTypeEnum` (f1_standings, indycar_standings,
golf_qualifying_points, playoff_bracket) + `simulatorType` nullable
column on `sports` table; migration 0037
- Rewrite simulator registry to key off `SimulatorType` instead of
`ScoringPattern`; indycar_standings shares F1Simulator for now
- `findSportsSeasonById` now returns `SportsSeasonWithSport` so callers
have typed access to `sport.simulatorType`
- Simulate and futures-odds actions read `sport.simulatorType`; guard
fires before setting `simulationStatus: running`
- Admin sport edit page gains a Simulator Type dropdown
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
- SeasonStandings: highlight rows for the logged-in user's drafted participants
with electric accent (in-points) or muted (outside points) left border + star icon
- Loader: derive userParticipantIds from current user's teams and draft picks
- EventSchedule: hide type badge for schedule_event; show "Results Pending" only
when event is past and not yet marked complete (matches admin page logic)
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* Redesign autodraft queue system with three-state control and queue-only constraint
Core Logic & Database:
- Add `queue_only` boolean column to `autodraft_settings` (migration 0031)
- Rename autodraft UI states: Off / Next Pick / All Picks (while_on mode maps to All Picks)
- `autoPickForTeam`: respects new `queueOnly` param — skips EV fallback when enabled
- `executeAutoPick`: auto-disables autodraft + emits socket event when queue empties with queueOnly ON (AC3)
- `autodraft-updated` socket event now includes `queueOnly` field
Mobile UI Overhaul:
- Rename "Lobby" tab → "Available" (AC6)
- Add new "Queue" tab to mobile bottom nav with drag-reorder, per-item Draft buttons, and autodraft controls (AC5)
- Controls tab retains commissioner tools, notifications, exit; queue controls moved to Queue tab
- Turn indicator appears on both Available and Queue tabs
Components:
- `AutodraftSettings`: replaces toggle+radio with three-state button group (Off | Next Pick | All Picks) + "Only autodraft from queue" switch (AC1, AC2)
- `QueueSection`: adds `canPick` prop + per-item Draft buttons for instant drafting when on the clock
Desktop (AC4):
- Sidebar QueueSection unchanged in position; gains same three-state controls and Draft buttons
Tests (AC7):
- `autodraft.test.ts`: updated for queueOnly field and socket event shape
- `timer-autodraft.test.ts`: new tests for queue-only constraint, auto-shutoff transitions, and all three autodraft states
https://claude.ai/code/session_01PYhJicAStoJ2u6q6dV1naB
* fix: remove erroneous ?? fallbacks in autodraft socket emissions and add autoPickForTeam tests
- Remove `?? true` default on queueOnly in queue-empty auto-disable socket emit
(line 488) — was dead code since the column is NOT NULL, but semantically wrong
and would have caused client-side UI desync if the type ever relaxed
- Remove `?? false` default on the next_pick auto-disable path for consistency
- Add app/models/__tests__/auto-pick.test.ts with 6 tests covering the queueOnly
constraint: empty queue, all items drafted, partial queue skip, and EV fallback
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* fix: add missing queueOnly prop to AutodraftSettings test fixtures
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* test: rewrite AutodraftSettings tests for three-state button group UI
The component was redesigned from a switch + radio buttons to Off/Next Pick/All Picks
buttons with a separate queue-only Switch toggle. Updated 17 stale tests and added 5
new tests covering the queue-only toggle and the All Picks/Off button interactions.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
---------
Co-authored-by: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
- Fix settings action silently resetting timer values when draft speed
select is disabled (add null guard before overwriting draftInitialTime/
draftIncrementTime)
- Make timer decrement and pick increment atomic using SQL expressions to
prevent read-modify-write races between the timer loop and HTTP handlers
- Add UNIQUE INDEX on (season_id, pick_number) in draft_picks to prevent
duplicate picks from concurrent requests (TOCTOU guard)
- Add socket join-draft team ownership validation via DB query
- Add iteration cap to autodraft chain while loop (max = totalTeams)
- Add draftPaused re-check before firing autodraft chain in make-pick
and force-manual-pick
- Consolidate all snake draft calculations into calculatePickInfo (DRY);
remove duplicated logic from timer.ts, make-pick, force-manual-pick,
executeAutoPick, and checkAndTriggerNextAutodraft
- Fix calculatePickInfo to return snake-adjusted pickInRound matching
draftOrder values instead of raw pre-snake value
- Fix timer-update socket events to emit nextPickNumber after a pick
instead of the already-completed currentPickNumber
- Fix force-manual-pick to validate submitted teamId matches the team
whose turn it actually is at the given pick number
- Replace inline timer init in draft.start with deleteSeasonTimers +
initializeDraftTimers model functions (dead code fix)
- Fix draft loader to not crash when getTeamQueue fails (returns [])
- Fix misleading 403 message for commissioner picks
- Remove dead hidden inputs from league settings form
- Document connectedTeams single-instance limitation in socket.ts
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
database/context.ts uses AsyncLocalStorage from node:async_hooks which
is a Node.js-only API. Vite externalizes it for browser builds but the
resulting error "AsyncLocalStorage is not exported by __vite-browser-external"
caused npm run build to fail.
Fix: add a Vite resolve.alias for the browser (non-SSR) build that maps
~/database/context to a browser-safe stub. The stub is never called at
runtime since database() is only invoked in server-side loaders, but it
allows the client bundle to build without errors.
https://claude.ai/code/session_01Fjf9WFqNnuHmmC5yTedL7G
Co-authored-by: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
* feat: sync odds-based EV to participants table for draft room ranking
When admin enters futures odds or manual probabilities, the calculated EV
is now synced from participantExpectedValues to participants.expectedValue.
This closes the gap where EVs were calculated but never reflected in the
draft room ranking. Also changes expectedValue from integer to decimal(10,2)
for better precision, and displays "—" for participants with no odds data.
https://claude.ai/code/session_01JWG2zg2EMzCn6RgEufPC1T
* fix: correct expectedValue type to string in participants route
Missed instance of `expectedValue: 0` (number) that failed typecheck
after schema change from integer to decimal.
https://claude.ai/code/session_01JWG2zg2EMzCn6RgEufPC1T
---------
Co-authored-by: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
- Add FIFA_48 bracket template with 12 groups of 4, knockout stage of 32
- Add tournament groups schema, model, and GroupStageDisplay component
- Add projected/expected value scoring to standings and team breakdowns
- Add docker-compose for local PostgreSQL development
- Move DRAFT_ORDER_IMPLEMENTATION.md to plans directory
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Implements Phase 5.2 of the EV system with Harville-Malmuth Independent Chip Model
for calculating participant placement probabilities from futures odds.
## Key Features
### ICM Probability Calculator
- Implements Harville-Malmuth method for distributing probabilities
- Converts American odds to championship probabilities
- Generates P(1st) through P(8th) for all participants
- Column-normalized: each placement sums to 100% across all teams
- Works with any number of participants (not limited to 8)
### Admin UI - Futures Odds Entry
- Enter American odds (e.g., +550, -200) for championship futures
- Live preview of ICM-calculated probability distributions
- Displays all 8 placement probabilities
- Persists odds for editing on subsequent visits
- Automatic probability normalization (removes bookmaker vig)
### Database Schema Updates
- Renamed participant_expected_values.season_id → sports_season_id
- Updated foreign key to reference sports_seasons instead of seasons
- Added source_odds field to store original futures odds
- Migration 0025: Column rename and FK update
- Migration 0026: Add source_odds field
### Model Layer
- participant-expected-value: CRUD operations for probability distributions
- Supports multiple probability sources (manual, futures_odds, elo_simulation)
- Automatic EV calculation based on league scoring rules
- Probability validation and normalization
### Service Layer
- icm-calculator: Harville-Malmuth probability distribution
- probability-engine: Odds conversion and Elo utilities (for future use)
- bracket-simulator: Monte Carlo simulation (for future hybrid approach)
- ev-calculator: Expected value computation from probabilities
## Technical Details
- Uses exponential decay favoring top positions for strong teams
- Preserves championship probability ordering in final distributions
- Row sums vary (strong teams ~100%, weak teams lower)
- All probabilities between 0-1, mathematically valid
- Comprehensive test suite: 97 tests passing
## Future Enhancements
- Hybrid approach: ICM pre-playoffs, bracket simulation during playoffs
- Integration with league-specific scoring rules
- Historical probability tracking for accuracy analysis
🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.com/claude-code)
Co-Authored-By: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
- Added a comprehensive plan for bracket expansion, including support for 4, 8, 16, 32, and 68 team formats.
- Introduced a template-based bracket system with predefined templates for NCAA March Madness, NFL Playoffs, NBA Playoffs, and simple brackets.
- Updated UI flow for bracket creation, allowing admins to select templates and assign participants flexibly.
- Enhanced database schema to accommodate new scoring rules and bracket templates.
- Proposed updates to scoring logic to handle non-scoring rounds and participant placements correctly.
- Documented implementation phases for gradual rollout of new features.
- Addressed critical bugs in the playoff event processing and scoring logic, ensuring proper advancement and scoring rules across multiple leagues.
- Add scoringPattern and eventType enums for 4 scoring patterns
(single_elimination_playoff, page_playoff, season_standings, qualifying_points)
- Add 8 placement point fields to seasons table (1st-8th) with defaults
- Add scoring pattern fields to sportsSeasons table (scoringPattern, totalMajors, etc.)
- Create 10 new tables:
- scoring_events: Individual games, tournaments, races
- event_results: Participant results per event
- playoff_matches: Bracket tracking for playoffs
- participant_qualifying_totals: QP aggregation for golf/tennis
- qualifying_point_config: Configurable QP values per sport
- team_sport_scores: Aggregated scores per sport
- team_standings: Current standings with tiebreakers
- team_standings_snapshots: Daily snapshots for 7-day tracking
- participant_expected_values: EV calculations per league
- participant_season_results: F1 current points tracking
- Add all necessary relations for new tables
- Update test fixtures with new required scoring fields
