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3e50619629 claude/probability-config-review-1tdolw (#119)
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Co-authored-by: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
Reviewed-on: #119
2026-06-30 23:24:48 +00:00
add196902b Fix MLB standings 406 error and refactor ESPN adapter shared code (#62)
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## Summary

- **Root cause**: `statsapi.mlb.com` returns 406 (deprecated). Switched MLB to ESPN's free standings API (`site.api.espn.com/apis/v2/sports/baseball/mlb/standings`), consistent with NBA, WNBA, and MLS.
- **Refactor**: Extracted a shared `espn.ts` utility module, eliminating 4× duplication of `statsMap()`, `flattenEspnStandings()`, ESPN interfaces, and the `playoffSeed` → conference rank logic across adapters.
- **Bug fixes** found during review and applied across all affected adapters:
  - `parseConferenceRank`: `|| undefined` falsy-zero bug replaced with `isNaN` guard
  - Sort comparators: stable alphabetical tiebreaker added to MLB, NBA, WNBA
  - `winPct`: falls back to `wins/(wins+losses)` if ESPN omits the stat (was silently 0)
  - statsMap pre-built once per entry before sorting in all adapters (was rebuilt per comparison)
  - WNBA `parseEntry`: accepts pre-computed `sm` instead of rebuilding it internally
  - MLB `gamesBack`: tests updated to reflect ESPN returns numeric `0` for division leaders (old API used `"-"` → `undefined`)

## Test plan

- [ ] All 60 standings-sync unit tests pass (`npm run test:run -- app/services/standings-sync`)
- [ ] Trigger MLB standings sync from admin panel and confirm it returns data without a 406
- [ ] Confirm NBA, WNBA, MLS syncs still work (adapters touched but behaviour unchanged)

🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.com/claude-code)

Co-authored-by: Chris Parsons <chrisparsons1127@gmail.com>
Reviewed-on: #62
2026-06-01 03:31:18 +00:00
Chris Parsons
2848231235
Canonical tournament layer: schema + backfill (1/2) (#365)
* refactor(schema): rename per-window tables to season_* prefix

Renames participants, participant_expected_values, participant_qualifying_totals,
participant_results, participant_surface_elos to season_* prefixed names.
Renames event_results.participant_id to season_participant_id.
Phase 1a of canonical tournament layer migration.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* refactor: rename participant.ts model file to season-participant.ts

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* refactor(models): update model layer to use renamed schema exports

Updated all model files to use the renamed schema exports from Task 1:
- participants → seasonParticipants
- participantExpectedValues → seasonParticipantExpectedValues
- participantQualifyingTotals → seasonParticipantQualifyingTotals
- participantResults → seasonParticipantResults
- participantSurfaceElos → seasonParticipantSurfaceElos
- eventResults.participantId → eventResults.seasonParticipantId
- db.query relation accessors updated
- Relation field .participant → .seasonParticipant where applicable
- Import paths updated: ./participant → ./season-participant

Files updated (14 model files + 3 test files):
- draft-pick.ts
- draft-utils.ts
- event-result.ts
- group-stage-match.ts
- participant-result.ts
- qualifying-points.ts
- scoring-calculator.ts
- scoring-event.ts
- sports-season.ts
- surface-elo.ts
- team-score-events.ts
- cs2-major-stage.ts
- golf-skills.ts
- participant-expected-value.ts
- __tests__/sports-season.clone.test.ts
- __tests__/auto-pick.test.ts
- __tests__/executeAutoPick.timer.test.ts

Typecheck errors decreased: 779 → 499 (280 fewer)
All model file errors related to renamed schemas resolved.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* refactor(routes): update route layer to use renamed schema exports

- Update model import from ~/models/participant to ~/models/season-participant
- Rename schema.participants to schema.seasonParticipants
- Rename schema.participantResults to schema.seasonParticipantResults
- Rename db.query.participants to db.query.seasonParticipants
- Update 9 route files and 1 test file

Affected files:
- admin.sports-seasons.$id.events.$eventId.bracket.server.ts
- admin.sports-seasons.$id.participants.tsx
- api/draft.force-manual-pick.ts
- api/draft.make-pick.ts
- api/draft.replace-pick.ts
- api/seasons.$seasonId.draft.ts
- leagues/$leagueId.draft-board.$seasonId.tsx
- leagues/$leagueId.sports-seasons.$sportsSeasonId.server.ts
- admin/__tests__/sports-seasons-participants.test.ts

Error count reduced from 499 to 453 (46 errors fixed).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* refactor(routes): update route files for schema rename

Update route imports from ~/models/participant to ~/models/season-participant
and fix references to .participant/.participantId on event results to use
.seasonParticipant/.seasonParticipantId after schema rename.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* refactor(services): update simulators and services for renamed schema

Update all simulators, services, and server files to use renamed schema tables:
- participants → seasonParticipants
- participantExpectedValues → seasonParticipantExpectedValues
- participantResults → seasonParticipantResults
- eventResults.participantId → eventResults.seasonParticipantId

Files updated:
- 20 sport simulators (NBA, NHL, NFL, MLB, etc.)
- probability-updater.ts
- standings-sync/index.ts
- sports-data-sync.server.ts
- server/socket.ts

Typecheck errors reduced from 365 to 0.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* migration: rename per-window tables to season_* prefix

* fix(tests): update mock query keys after participants table rename

Change mock db.query.participants to db.query.seasonParticipants in test
files to match the schema rename from commit 66145a9. This fixes
"Cannot read properties of undefined (reading 'findFirst'/'findMany')"
errors that occurred when production code queries db.query.seasonParticipants
but test mocks only defined the old participants key.

Files updated:
- app/services/simulations/__tests__/world-cup-simulator.test.ts
- app/routes/api/__tests__/draft.force-manual-pick.test.ts
- app/routes/api/__tests__/draft.force-manual-pick.timer-mode.test.ts
- app/routes/api/__tests__/draft.make-pick.timer-mode.test.ts
- server/__tests__/timer-autodraft.test.ts
- app/models/__tests__/team-score-events.test.ts

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* fix(tests): update remaining mock paths and keys after schema rename

* fix(tests): final two mock stragglers after schema rename

- draft-pick.test.ts: assertion on db.query.participantQualifyingTotals
- process-match-result.test.ts: mock key participants → seasonParticipants

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* chore: add post-phase1a baseline capture (temp, for diff verification)

* chore: capture pre-migration baselines

* chore: remove post-phase1a capture helper after verification

* schema: add canonical tournament & participant tables

Adds tournaments, participants (canonical), tournament_results, and
participant_surface_elos (canonical). Adds nullable tournament_id to
scoring_events and nullable participant_id to season_participants.
Phase 1b of canonical tournament layer migration.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* feat(models): add canonical tournament, participant, result, surface-elo models

Adds CRUD modules for the canonical tables created in commit 775b905.
Each module mirrors existing app/models conventions (database() from
~/database/context, schema from ~/database/schema, mock-based tests).

Key implementation notes:
- participant.ts exports use "Canonical" prefix (CanonicalParticipant,
  createCanonicalParticipant, etc.) to avoid collision with existing
  season-participant.ts exports
- All four models include comprehensive unit tests following the
  audit-log.test.ts pattern
- Tests use mocked db responses (no real database access)
- Upsert functions use onConflictDoUpdate for appropriate unique constraints

Part of Phase 1b of canonical tournament layer migration.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* migration: create canonical tables, add nullable FKs

* scripts: add extractTournamentIdentity helper for backfill

Pure function that derives canonical (name, year) identity from a
scoring_events row, stripping trailing 4-digit years from the name or
falling back to eventDate. Used by the Phase 2 backfill to group
per-window events into canonical tournaments.

* scripts: add backfill orchestrator for canonical layer

Populates canonical tournaments, participants, tournament_results, and
participant_surface_elos from per-window data for qualifying-points
sports. Skips already-linked rows, is idempotent, and supports dry-run
mode.

Critical invariants enforced by the implementation:
- qualifying_points_awarded is never copied to tournament_results
- season_participant_qualifying_totals is never touched
- conflicting surface-Elo values between windows raise a loud error
  (recorded in report.errors) rather than overwriting

* scripts: add backfill CLI with dry-run default

Wires backfill-canonical-layer.ts to a CLI entry point exposed as
`npm run backfill:canonical`. Defaults to --dry-run; requires --apply
to actually write. Supports --sport=<uuid> to limit to a single sport.
Exits 2 if the backfill reports errors (e.g., surface-Elo conflicts).

* fix(backfill-cli): wrap runBackfill in DatabaseContext.run

The orchestrator uses database() from ~/database/context, which requires
AsyncLocalStorage to be populated. Wrap the CLI invocation with
DatabaseContext.run(db, ...) using server/db's cached connection pool.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* fix(backfill-cli): exit 0 on success so pg pool doesn't block

The cached postgres connection pool keeps the Node event loop open after
main() returns. Explicit process.exit(0) on success mirrors the pattern
in scripts/capture-baseline.ts.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>

---------

Co-authored-by: Chris Parsons <chrisp@extrahop.com>
Co-authored-by: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-01 20:13:18 -07:00
Chris Parsons
68b2e070e6
fix: infer LLWS bracket side from name when externalId is null (#285)
Participants are created with externalId=null by default, causing the
LLWS simulator to crash at runtime. Fix in two parts:

1. Name-prefix inference: if externalId is null, participants whose
   name starts with "US " or equals "US" are assigned to the US side;
   all others are assigned to Intl. Pools are always randomized when
   inferred (no pool suffix).

2. Admin UI: add an inline-editable "Group" column to the Manage
   Participants page so admins can explicitly set externalId for any
   simulator that uses it (LLWS, and future cases like NHL conferences).

Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-04-09 09:51:16 -04:00
Chris Parsons
0da80bd2c0
Add LLWS bracket Monte Carlo simulator (#280)
* Add LLWS bracket Monte Carlo simulator

Simulates the 20-team Little League World Series: pool play round-robin
(5 teams/pool, top 2 advance) → 4-team double-elimination per side
(US and International) → consolation game → World Series final.

Uses championship futures odds as the sole win-probability signal.
Pool assignments are auto-detected from externalId: bare "US"/"Intl"
randomizes pools each simulation (pre-draw mode); "US:A"/"Intl:B" etc.
uses fixed assignments (post-draw mode). Sides can differ.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* Fix oxlint violations in LLWS simulator

- Replace non-null assertions with null-safe access (! → ?? / optional chaining)
- Replace .sort() with .toSorted() per linting rules
- Promote bump() to simulate() scope and pass it into simulateSideBracket,
  removing the need to pass counts into that function

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

---------

Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-04-08 16:52:10 -04:00