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34 commits

Author SHA1 Message Date
Chris Parsons
3f6af2665e Don't ping owners on rank-only standings changes in Discord
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The first score of a season displaces every other team's rank (e.g.
everyone becomes T2), which fired a mass @-ping of the whole league even
though only one owner actually scored. The Standings Changes section
pinged every team whose rank *or* points changed.

Now the section pings an owner only when that team's points genuinely
changed this event; rank-only shufflers are still displayed with their
rank delta, but by name and without a mention. Mirrors the existing
"display but don't ping" behaviour in the Scored Matches section and
preserves pings for pure season-standings sports (F1, IndyCar), where a
real scorer's points always change.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-04 22:02:06 -07:00
Claude
7ca89aafc4
Fix mirrored tournaments dropping QP knockout announcements
Mirror tournament windows (leagues drafting the same real-world major)
announced Qualifying Points awards but silently omitted the "Knocked Out"
section. Knockouts are derived only on the primary window's bracket
(playoff_matches → newlyDecidedLoserIds); mirrors receive placement/rawScore
only, so a player eliminated in a non-scoring round (0 QP) becomes a
null-placement filler indistinguishable from "not yet played" — the mirror
has no local signal to detect the knockout, and its notification was also
gated on QP having changed.

Thread the primary's newly-eliminated participants down the fan-out
(syncTennisDraw → fanOutMajorIfPrimary → syncMajorFromPrimaryEvent →
syncTournamentResults → processQualifyingEvent), translating identity across
window boundaries (primary season_participant → canonical participant → each
mirror's season_participant), and relax the mirror notification guard to fire
on eliminations even when no QP changed — matching the primary path.

Reuses the same notifyQualifyingPointsUpdate the primary already calls, so
mirrors now produce the same combined "Points Awarded" + "Knocked Out" embed.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01WZGsG5R1q3kyKCaXuysiWJ
2026-07-04 16:24:36 +00:00
Chris Parsons
698c6a6509 Fix lint errors in PlayoffBracket and sync-tournament-results test
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Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-03 21:02:06 -07:00
Claude
0baef5a948
Fix reprocess bracket to score mirror windows like the primary
Reprocessing a tennis (qualifying) major recomputed the primary window's
QP correctly (R16 players = 1.5, the average of the 9th–16th values) but
left mirror/sibling windows showing 2 QP. Two defects:

1. The mirror fan-out ran through fanOutMajorIfPrimary, which swallows
   every error and returns void, so reprocess reported a green "success"
   even when mirrors were never re-scored. The reprocess qualifying path
   now calls syncMajorFromPrimaryEvent directly and folds the SyncReport
   (windows synced / failed) into the response, surfacing failures instead
   of hiding them.

2. Mirror windows split QP by counting canonical tournament_results rows
   at each placement, which only equals the round's structural tie span
   when placements are final. Mid-tournament, players floored at a tier
   make the row-count diverge from the tier size, so mirrors split
   differently than the primary. syncMajorFromPrimaryEvent now derives the
   structural span (R16 = 8, QF = 4, SF = 2, Final = 1) from the primary
   bracket via deriveBracketQualifyingStates and merges it over the
   canonical counts, so every window splits identically to the primary at
   every stage. Golf and CS2 Swiss-exit placements keep their canonical
   count via the merge.

Adds a fan-out test covering an R16-in-progress bracket where only 4 rows
sit at placement 9: the mirror is scored with the structural span (8), not
the live count (4).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_013UkZVYgLmquWV2xDn349T2
2026-07-04 01:45:53 +00:00
58e656f15e claude/wimbledon-qp-scoring-bug-xevhlf (#127)
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Co-authored-by: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
Reviewed-on: #127
2026-07-03 21:40:11 +00:00
Claude
5be8ac3f2f
Short-circuit QP notifier when nothing drafted is involved
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Widening the tennis-sync gate to fire on any elimination means
notifyQualifyingPointsUpdate now runs on essentially every early-round
sync, since most eliminated players are undrafted. Fetch the draft picks
first and bail before the QP-total, season, participant, user, and Discord
lookups when no drafted participant earned QP or was knocked out this sync —
avoiding a full query battery just to send nothing.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01LkPWxSCunhPFknNUTXm4aZ
2026-07-03 15:10:07 +00:00
Claude
8900bf79dc
Announce drafted tennis players eliminated in non-scoring rounds
A player drafted in a tennis major (e.g. Jakob Mensik, out in the Round of
64) got no Discord announcement when the bracket was scored by sync. The
first three Grand Slam rounds are non-scoring, so an early-round loser earns
0 QP, gets no event_results row, and is dropped from the
"Qualifying Points Update" notification — the only announcement the tennis
sync emits mid-tournament.

Detect players knocked out on each sync and surface them:

- populateBracketFromDraw now returns newlyDecidedLoserIds: losers of
  matches that transition to complete on this run. Idempotent across
  re-syncs since playoff_matches persist, so a knockout is announced once.
- syncTennisDraw threads that set into notifyQualifyingPointsUpdate and
  fires the notification even when no QP changed.
- notifyQualifyingPointsUpdate builds an eliminated list scoped to players
  drafted in the league, deduped against QP earners (so a Round-of-16 loser
  who scores isn't listed twice), tagging the drafting manager.
- sendQualifyingPointsUpdateNotification renders a "Knocked Out" section and
  pings those managers; the QP Standings block is skipped when a sync only
  reports knockouts.

Tests cover the new detection, dedup, manager tagging, knockout-only
notifications, and rendering.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01LkPWxSCunhPFknNUTXm4aZ
2026-07-03 14:42:06 +00:00
b0c25beb90 claude/discord-qualifying-points-t55s3x (#121)
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Co-authored-by: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
Reviewed-on: #121
2026-07-01 17:29:45 +00:00
64e5cb23ef claude/discord-ping-notification-filter-6m1ymt (#120)
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Co-authored-by: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
Reviewed-on: #120
2026-06-30 23:48:11 +00:00
070b825077 scoring notifications (#115)
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2026-06-30 01:58:20 +00:00
e3e8485e26 elimination announcements (#114)
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2026-06-28 19:36:33 +00:00
Chris Parsons
9480501932 Unify majors: score once, fan out across windows + tennis bracket EV
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Make a "major" (golf/tennis/CS2) scored once on its canonical tournament
and fan out to every linked sports_season window and league.

Fan-out & completion (app/services/sync-tournament-results.ts):
- syncTournamentResults now marks each synced window's event complete
  (gated by markComplete), recalculates affected leagues, and counts
  recalc failures so a stale league can't hide behind a "completed" badge
- syncMajorFromPrimaryEvent promotes a primary window's derived results to
  canonical tournament_results (deleting rows for dropped placements) and
  fans out to siblings; fanOutMajorIfPrimary guards on the primary
- placement removals now propagate (stale rows reset to filler)

Primary-event model (scoring_events.is_primary, migration 0122):
- getPrimaryEventForTournament / isReadOnlySibling / ensurePrimaryEvent /
  setPrimaryEvent; event creation auto-seeds a primary for bracket majors;
  "Make primary" button on the tournament page
- per-window event/bracket/cs2 pages are read-only for non-primary linked
  events (not-participating stays editable)

Tennis Grand Slam bracket (tennis_128 template + TEMPLATE_ROUND_CONFIG):
- bracket-scored qualifying major via the existing bracket pipeline
- simulator conditions in-progress EV on the real bracket (honoring
  completed matches, walkover for withdrawals), QP derived from config,
  round structure read from the template; CS2 + tennis share resolveStructureSource

Backfill (scripts/backfill-major-linking.ts): one-time idempotent reconcile
of existing majors (link orphans, designate primary, promote canonical, sync).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-22 20:32:22 -07:00
ef29c1fcd9 claude/discord-pick-notification-refactor-FeusJ (#58)
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Co-authored-by: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
Reviewed-on: #58
2026-05-29 16:24:22 +00:00
Chris Parsons
1b51cb554b Fix Discord double-ping when autodraft fires immediately after manual pick
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When a manual pick triggered an immediate autodraft chain, both Discord
announcements re-read currentPickNumber from the DB, which had already
advanced past the chained pick. Both messages showed the same "On the
clock" person, pinging them twice.

Fix: pass nextPickNumber (the pick immediately following each specific
pick, before any chain) as an explicit param to notifyPickMadeOnDiscord
instead of re-reading from the DB. Also removes a now-unnecessary DB
round-trip on every pick announcement.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-22 20:38:35 -07:00
841760541d Fix snake draft Discord pick numbering and small UX tweaks (#2)
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## Summary

- **Discord snake draft fix**: pick notifications now show the sequential pick-in-round (e.g. "Round 2, Pick 9") rather than the snake-adjusted slot position ("Round 2, Pick 5"). Also removes the now-unused \`pickInRound\` param from \`notifyPickMadeOnDiscord\` and adds a regression test for the 13-team case.
- **League card**: league name in draft-in-progress cards is now a link to the league homepage (the Enter Draft button still goes to the draft room).
- **Overnight pause label**: shortened to "🌙 Pause" — the "Resumes 4:00 AM" line below already provides context, so "Overnight" was just causing wrapping.
- **Queue & Picks backgrounds**: items use \`bg-card\` instead of \`bg-muted\` for better visual separation from the panel background.

## Test plan

- [x] Discord: in a snake draft, verify pick #22 of 13 shows "Round 2, Pick 9" in Discord
- [x] League card: dashboard with a draft-in-progress league — click name → league homepage, click Enter Draft → draft room
- [x] Overnight pause: pause a draft overnight — cell shows "🌙 Pause" on one line, "Resumes X:XX" below
- [x] Queue/Picks: open draft room and confirm queue items and recent picks visually pop from the sidebar background
- [x] Unit tests: `npm run test:run` passes (13 discord tests)

Co-authored-by: Chris Parsons <chrisparsons1127@gmail.com>
Reviewed-on: #2
2026-05-22 04:18:11 +00:00
Chris Parsons
fbcecb490e
Add Discord draft pick announcements (#460)
* Add Discord draft pick announcements

Posts a message to the league Discord webhook each time a pick is made, announcing the picked participant and pinging the next team on the clock if their owner has opted into Discord notifications. Enabled via a separate toggle in league settings (independent from standings update notifications).

https://claude.ai/code/session_01Tvwsv3LfL9JUqxoLct8dTn

* Address code review feedback on Discord pick announcements

- Fix "on the clock" timing: read currentPickNumber fresh from DB post-autodraft-chain (matches sendOnTheClockEmail guarantee)
- Remove outer try/catch from notifyPickMadeOnDiscord so callers' .catch() is not dead code
- Add missing draft-discord.server.test.ts with 12 tests covering all early-exit and happy paths
- Fix silent empty-string fallback for missing pickedSlot: warn and skip instead
- Eliminate sequential season→league DB queries by accepting leagueId as a direct param
- Show "save webhook URL to configure options" hint when URL is typed but not yet saved
- Remove block-scope braces at both call sites (plain const declarations)
- Remove redundant "Round N, Pick M" description line (title already carries this info)
- Inline pickInRoundFor helper to avoid circular import with draft-utils

https://claude.ai/code/session_01Tvwsv3LfL9JUqxoLct8dTn

* Fix lint errors from review fixes

- Remove unused logger import (no longer needed after removing try/catch)
- Remove unused OWNER_ID constant in test fixture
- Use toSorted() instead of sort() in sendDraftOrderNotification

https://claude.ai/code/session_01Tvwsv3LfL9JUqxoLct8dTn

---------

Co-authored-by: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-20 19:55:48 -07:00
Chris Parsons
b8b58ec9f8
Add draft email notifications feature (#459)
* Add on-the-clock email notifications and fix push notification modal

- Add `draft_email_notifications_enabled` column to users table
- New `sendOnTheClockEmail` service sends an email when a user's turn arrives
  in a draft; detects back-to-back picks and sends one combined email instead
  of two; skips notification if the team has autodraft enabled
- Email is triggered after every manual pick (make-pick route) and every
  timer-expiry pick (executeAutoPick) once the full autodraft chain settles,
  so the notified user is always the first human on the clock
- Add email notification toggle to the user settings Notifications section
- Fix push notification dropdown in the draft room: the bare absolute div is
  replaced with a Radix Popover so clicking outside dismisses it without
  toggling notifications off
- Rename draft room label from "Pick Notifications" to "Push Notifications"
  to distinguish from the new email notifications

https://claude.ai/code/session_01LMGxgYvtE3CF8Jf3u2pXgA

* Address code review feedback on email notification feature

- sendOnTheClockEmail now fetches season (and currentPickNumber) internally,
  removing the blocking postChainSeason pre-fetch from both make-pick.ts and
  executeAutoPick; callers are now true fire-and-forget with no IIFE needed
- Parallel Promise.all for team, autodraftSettings, and league queries reduces
  sequential DB round-trips from 5 to 3
- Remove team.ownerId type cast; assign to local after the null guard
- Combine the two calculatePickInfo calls for the same pick into one
- Fix popoverOpen/enabled divergence: remove the {enabled && ...} guard on
  PopoverContent so popoverOpen is the sole visibility control
- Unify NotificationsSection feedback pattern: both Discord and email sections
  now read success/error directly from their respective fetcher data via a
  shared feedbackFromFetcher helper; removes the success/error props and the
  verbose cast that was used for email
- Add 13 unit tests for sendOnTheClockEmail covering: early-exit paths
  (no season, past totalPicks, no owner, notifications disabled, autodraft
  enabled, no league), single vs back-to-back subject selection, draft room
  link presence, error logging without throwing, and parallel query execution

https://claude.ai/code/session_01LMGxgYvtE3CF8Jf3u2pXgA

---------

Co-authored-by: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-20 15:35:43 -07:00
Chris Parsons
c71eb69648
Add Discord notifications for draft order changes (#441)
* Add Discord notification when draft order is set or randomized

Posts the full draft order to the league's Discord webhook after each
set-draft-order or randomize-draft-order action, with distinct titles
(📋 vs 🎲) so members can tell how it was determined.

https://claude.ai/code/session_01XrBxu358RK6q8iDgRQbMFx

* Refine Discord draft order notification: league name/link, usernames, polish

- Replace seasonName with leagueName + leagueUrl; title links to the league
- Distinguish manual vs randomized in title ("Manually Set" vs "Randomized")
- Show owner username next to each team name in the draft order list
- Remove footer in favour of the linked embed title
- Add 4096-char description clamp consistent with standings notification
- Use a teamMap in both intent branches to avoid O(n²) find-in-loop
- Add test for all-unowned-teams rendering no trailing parentheses

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* Remove emoji from draft order notification titles

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

---------

Co-authored-by: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-17 23:20:51 -07:00
Chris Parsons
469cc82e15
Add opt-in Discord pings to standings notifications (#429)
* Add opt-in Discord ping to standings notifications

Users who have linked their Discord account can enable a ping preference
in Settings > Notifications. When enabled, their bracket username is replaced
with a Discord @mention (<@userId>) in league standings update messages,
sending them a push notification and showing their Discord display name.

Adds discordPingEnabled column to users, a findDiscordIdsByUserIds model
helper, allowed_mentions support to the Discord webhook payload, and a
NotificationsSection settings component.

https://claude.ai/code/session_01NUv93WRrufHhpZSMyY4bjs

* Remove Display Name field from user profile settings

Username is the only user-facing name field. The display_name column
remains in the database since BetterAuth writes the OAuth provider name
there, and it serves as a programmatic fallback via getUserDisplayName.

https://claude.ai/code/session_01NUv93WRrufHhpZSMyY4bjs

* Address code review feedback on Discord ping feature

- Fix broken Account settings link in NotificationsSection: replace the
  non-functional ?section=account href with an onNavigateToAccount callback
  that drives the parent's useState-based section switcher
- Replace hand-rolled toggle button with the project's Switch component
  (Radix UI) for consistent sizing, accessibility, and dark-mode support
- Guard update-discord-ping action: return an error if the user attempts
  to enable pings without a Discord account linked
- Surface action error in NotificationsSection UI
- Cap allowed_mentions.users at 100 to avoid Discord rejecting the payload
  in large leagues
- Remove the showWinner alias in scoring-calculator; inline winnerScoreChanged
- Add comment to league settings test notification explaining why discordUserId
  is omitted
- Clarify database schema comment: displayName is write-only from BetterAuth

https://claude.ai/code/session_01NUv93WRrufHhpZSMyY4bjs

---------

Co-authored-by: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-15 10:06:54 -07:00
Chris Parsons
48b1d470f1
Canonical tournament layer:
cutover + cleanup (2/2) (#367)

* refactor(schema): rename per-window tables to season_* prefix

Renames participants, participant_expected_values, participant_qualifying_totals,
participant_results, participant_surface_elos to season_* prefixed names.
Renames event_results.participant_id to season_participant_id.
Phase 1a of canonical tournament layer migration.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* refactor: rename participant.ts model file to season-participant.ts

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* refactor(models): update model layer to use renamed schema exports

Updated all model files to use the renamed schema exports from Task 1:
- participants → seasonParticipants
- participantExpectedValues → seasonParticipantExpectedValues
- participantQualifyingTotals → seasonParticipantQualifyingTotals
- participantResults → seasonParticipantResults
- participantSurfaceElos → seasonParticipantSurfaceElos
- eventResults.participantId → eventResults.seasonParticipantId
- db.query relation accessors updated
- Relation field .participant → .seasonParticipant where applicable
- Import paths updated: ./participant → ./season-participant

Files updated (14 model files + 3 test files):
- draft-pick.ts
- draft-utils.ts
- event-result.ts
- group-stage-match.ts
- participant-result.ts
- qualifying-points.ts
- scoring-calculator.ts
- scoring-event.ts
- sports-season.ts
- surface-elo.ts
- team-score-events.ts
- cs2-major-stage.ts
- golf-skills.ts
- participant-expected-value.ts
- __tests__/sports-season.clone.test.ts
- __tests__/auto-pick.test.ts
- __tests__/executeAutoPick.timer.test.ts

Typecheck errors decreased: 779 → 499 (280 fewer)
All model file errors related to renamed schemas resolved.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* refactor(routes): update route layer to use renamed schema exports

- Update model import from ~/models/participant to ~/models/season-participant
- Rename schema.participants to schema.seasonParticipants
- Rename schema.participantResults to schema.seasonParticipantResults
- Rename db.query.participants to db.query.seasonParticipants
- Update 9 route files and 1 test file

Affected files:
- admin.sports-seasons.$id.events.$eventId.bracket.server.ts
- admin.sports-seasons.$id.participants.tsx
- api/draft.force-manual-pick.ts
- api/draft.make-pick.ts
- api/draft.replace-pick.ts
- api/seasons.$seasonId.draft.ts
- leagues/$leagueId.draft-board.$seasonId.tsx
- leagues/$leagueId.sports-seasons.$sportsSeasonId.server.ts
- admin/__tests__/sports-seasons-participants.test.ts

Error count reduced from 499 to 453 (46 errors fixed).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* refactor(routes): update route files for schema rename

Update route imports from ~/models/participant to ~/models/season-participant
and fix references to .participant/.participantId on event results to use
.seasonParticipant/.seasonParticipantId after schema rename.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* refactor(services): update simulators and services for renamed schema

Update all simulators, services, and server files to use renamed schema tables:
- participants → seasonParticipants
- participantExpectedValues → seasonParticipantExpectedValues
- participantResults → seasonParticipantResults
- eventResults.participantId → eventResults.seasonParticipantId

Files updated:
- 20 sport simulators (NBA, NHL, NFL, MLB, etc.)
- probability-updater.ts
- standings-sync/index.ts
- sports-data-sync.server.ts
- server/socket.ts

Typecheck errors reduced from 365 to 0.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* migration: rename per-window tables to season_* prefix

* fix(tests): update mock query keys after participants table rename

Change mock db.query.participants to db.query.seasonParticipants in test
files to match the schema rename from commit 66145a9. This fixes
"Cannot read properties of undefined (reading 'findFirst'/'findMany')"
errors that occurred when production code queries db.query.seasonParticipants
but test mocks only defined the old participants key.

Files updated:
- app/services/simulations/__tests__/world-cup-simulator.test.ts
- app/routes/api/__tests__/draft.force-manual-pick.test.ts
- app/routes/api/__tests__/draft.force-manual-pick.timer-mode.test.ts
- app/routes/api/__tests__/draft.make-pick.timer-mode.test.ts
- server/__tests__/timer-autodraft.test.ts
- app/models/__tests__/team-score-events.test.ts

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* fix(tests): update remaining mock paths and keys after schema rename

* fix(tests): final two mock stragglers after schema rename

- draft-pick.test.ts: assertion on db.query.participantQualifyingTotals
- process-match-result.test.ts: mock key participants → seasonParticipants

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* chore: add post-phase1a baseline capture (temp, for diff verification)

* chore: capture pre-migration baselines

* chore: remove post-phase1a capture helper after verification

* schema: add canonical tournament & participant tables

Adds tournaments, participants (canonical), tournament_results, and
participant_surface_elos (canonical). Adds nullable tournament_id to
scoring_events and nullable participant_id to season_participants.
Phase 1b of canonical tournament layer migration.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* feat(models): add canonical tournament, participant, result, surface-elo models

Adds CRUD modules for the canonical tables created in commit 775b905.
Each module mirrors existing app/models conventions (database() from
~/database/context, schema from ~/database/schema, mock-based tests).

Key implementation notes:
- participant.ts exports use "Canonical" prefix (CanonicalParticipant,
  createCanonicalParticipant, etc.) to avoid collision with existing
  season-participant.ts exports
- All four models include comprehensive unit tests following the
  audit-log.test.ts pattern
- Tests use mocked db responses (no real database access)
- Upsert functions use onConflictDoUpdate for appropriate unique constraints

Part of Phase 1b of canonical tournament layer migration.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* migration: create canonical tables, add nullable FKs

* scripts: add extractTournamentIdentity helper for backfill

Pure function that derives canonical (name, year) identity from a
scoring_events row, stripping trailing 4-digit years from the name or
falling back to eventDate. Used by the Phase 2 backfill to group
per-window events into canonical tournaments.

* scripts: add backfill orchestrator for canonical layer

Populates canonical tournaments, participants, tournament_results, and
participant_surface_elos from per-window data for qualifying-points
sports. Skips already-linked rows, is idempotent, and supports dry-run
mode.

Critical invariants enforced by the implementation:
- qualifying_points_awarded is never copied to tournament_results
- season_participant_qualifying_totals is never touched
- conflicting surface-Elo values between windows raise a loud error
  (recorded in report.errors) rather than overwriting

* scripts: add backfill CLI with dry-run default

Wires backfill-canonical-layer.ts to a CLI entry point exposed as
`npm run backfill:canonical`. Defaults to --dry-run; requires --apply
to actually write. Supports --sport=<uuid> to limit to a single sport.
Exits 2 if the backfill reports errors (e.g., surface-Elo conflicts).

* fix(backfill-cli): wrap runBackfill in DatabaseContext.run

The orchestrator uses database() from ~/database/context, which requires
AsyncLocalStorage to be populated. Wrap the CLI invocation with
DatabaseContext.run(db, ...) using server/db's cached connection pool.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* fix(backfill-cli): exit 0 on success so pg pool doesn't block

The cached postgres connection pool keeps the Node event loop open after
main() returns. Explicit process.exit(0) on success mirrors the pattern
in scripts/capture-baseline.ts.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* schema: add check constraint requiring tournament_id for qualifying events

Team sports (NHL, NBA, etc.) have scoring_events with no canonical
tournament, so we can't require tournament_id globally. The constraint
only applies when is_qualifying_event=true.

Phase 3 Task 1 of canonical tournament layer migration.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* feat(BatchResultEntry): make form intent configurable

Canonical tournament admin page will submit with a different intent
(batch-upsert-results). Existing per-window callers continue to get
"batch-add-results" as the default, so no behavior changes.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* feat(services): syncTournamentResults fan-out service

* schema: add unique (scoring_event_id, season_participant_id) on event_results

syncTournamentResults uses check-then-write on event_results. The
unique index defends against race conditions (unlikely today — admin
is single-writer — but safe to enforce).

WARNING: if existing prod data has duplicate (scoring_event_id,
season_participant_id) pairs, the migration will fail. Verify with:
  SELECT scoring_event_id, season_participant_id, count(*)
  FROM event_results
  GROUP BY 1, 2
  HAVING count(*) > 1;

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* feat(surface-elo): getSurfaceEloMap reads from canonical

Switch the tennis simulator's Elo source from the per-window table
to the canonical participant_surface_elos via season_participants.participant_id.
Map key stays season_participant.id so the simulator's call pattern is unchanged.

Other functions in this file still read/write the per-window table
(seasonParticipantSurfaceElos). They back the old admin surface-elo page
and are removed in Phase 4 after the canonical admin flow replaces them.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* feat(admin): canonical tournament list + result entry routes

New routes /admin/tournaments and /admin/tournaments/:id. The detail
page lets admins enter tournament results once via paste-and-parse,
then calls syncTournamentResults to fan out to every linked window.

Phase 3 Task 4 of canonical tournament layer migration.

* feat: per-window batch-add-results routes through canonical when linked

If the scoring_event has a tournament_id, translate season_participant ids
to canonical participant ids, upsert tournament_results, and fan out via
syncTournamentResults. Team sports (no tournament link) keep the legacy
direct-write path.

Phase 3 Task 8 of canonical tournament layer migration.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* feat(surface-elo): mirror batchUpsert writes to canonical table

The simulator now reads surface Elo from the canonical table
(participant_surface_elos). The existing per-window admin page still
posts to batchUpsertSurfaceElos; without this change, those edits
would silently fail to affect simulator output. Mirror every write
to both tables until Phase 4 removes the per-window path entirely.

Phase 3 Task 5 (partial — canonical write path; dedicated canonical
admin UI deferred; existing page continues to work and now
edits both tables).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* feat: auto-provision canonical tournaments and participants on create

Creating new qualifying scoring_events or season_participants now
auto-upserts the matching canonical rows. Needed so the check constraint
doesn't reject qualifying events, and so new season participants
flow through syncTournamentResults.

- Extract tournament identity shared between backfill and event-creation
  into app/lib/tournament-identity.ts; scripts/backfill re-exports it.
- createScoringEvent + bulkCreateScoringEvents now accept tournamentId.
- Event creation routes auto-compute (name, year) and upsert tournament.
- createParticipant + createManyParticipants auto-link to canonical
  participants by (sportId, name).

Phase 3 Task 7 of canonical tournament layer migration.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* fix(tests): update surface-elo tests for canonical mirror

getSurfaceEloMap now joins through season_participants and returns
rows keyed by seasonParticipantId (was participantId).

batchUpsertSurfaceElos now performs a second db.select to resolve
canonical links before mirroring writes; tests mock the lookup
explicitly and exercise both the "no canonical link" short-circuit
path and the "mirror to canonical" path.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* migration: add check constraint + unique index for canonical

* refactor(surface-elo): canonical-only; drop per-window path

batchUpsertSurfaceElos now writes only to the canonical
participant_surface_elos table (the mirror step is now the only step).
getSurfaceElosForSeason joins through season_participants → canonical
participants so the admin UI keeps its existing (id, participantId,
sportsSeasonId, ...) row shape.

season_participants without a canonical link get silently skipped. In
practice every qualifying-points roster entry is canonical-linked after
Phase 2 backfill + Phase 3 auto-linking on createParticipant.

Phase 4 Tasks 2 + 3 of canonical tournament layer migration.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* refactor: remove legacy direct-write fallback in batch-add-results

Every qualifying scoring_event now has tournament_id (check constraint
enforces it), so the non-canonical fallback is dead. Replace with an
explicit error surface so any configuration regression becomes visible
instead of silently bypassing canonical.

Phase 4 Task 4.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* schema: drop season_participant_surface_elos table

Table had no remaining readers after Phase 3 and no remaining writers
after Phase 4 Task 2. Also removes the now-unrunnable Phase 2 backfill
scripts and the backfill:canonical npm script — the backfill ran once
and is preserved in git history (commits 85bca8b, 8186dbb, 6f3438b,
bc0f530, 327c7b9).

Phase 4 Task 5.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* docs(agents): describe canonical/per-window split

Update database.md with the canonical/per-window model explanation,
the syncTournamentResults fan-out contract, the check constraint,
and the tennis-Men/Women quirk.

Update domain-models.md to reflect the renamed per-window entities
and the new canonical layer.

Also update the drizzle-kit gotchas section with lessons from the
migration: do not use --custom for renames; FK constraint naming
can mismatch Drizzle convention.

Phase 4 Task 6.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* migration: drop season_participant_surface_elos

* feat(admin): add Tournaments link to admin sidebar

Missed in Phase 3 Task 4 — the /admin/tournaments route exists but
was not reachable from the admin nav without typing the URL.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* fix(lint): address 4 oxlint errors on canonical-layer-pr2

- Remove unused filterNewResults import (events batch-add-results legacy
  path was removed in Phase 4 Task 4).
- Replace import() type annotation in sync-tournament-results test with
  a top-level type import (consistent-type-imports rule).
- Hoist tableName helper out of makeFakeDb closure so it's not recreated
  per call (consistent-function-scoping rule).
- eqeqeq: replace `!= null` with explicit null/undefined checks in
  tournament-identity.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>

---------

Co-authored-by: Chris Parsons <chrisp@extrahop.com>
Co-authored-by: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-01 21:04:48 -07:00
Chris Parsons
7fa88fc0ef
Add projected-wins input mode to admin Elo Ratings page (#306)
* Add projected-wins input mode to admin Elo Ratings page

Admins can now enter projected season win totals instead of raw Elo
numbers on the Elo Ratings page. Wins are auto-converted to Elo using
the inverse formula and stored as sourceElo, keeping the rest of the
simulation pipeline unchanged.

- Add `projectedWinsToElo` / `eloToProjectedWins` to probability-engine
- Add `simulator-config.ts` centralising per-sport season length, parity
  factor, and average opponent Elo (AFL, NFL, NBA, NHL, MLB, WNBA)
- Admin Elo Ratings page: toggle between Elo and Projected Wins input
  modes; bulk import parses wins format; existing sourceElo back-fills
  the wins field on load
- AFL simulator now reads sourceElo from participantExpectedValues first,
  falling back to hardcoded TEAMS_DATA then 1400

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* Fix lint errors in simulator-config tests and probability-engine

- Replace non-null assertions (`!`) with optional chaining (`?.`) in simulator-config tests
- Remove redundant type annotations on default parameters in probability-engine

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

---------

Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-04-17 12:40:08 -07:00
Chris Parsons
22ec6381b8 feat: add calculateReplacementLevel and calculateVORP to ev-calculator 2026-04-09 01:59:46 +00:00
Chris Parsons
611e1ccf0a
Show tied ranks with T prefix across standings and Discord (#239)
* Show tied ranks with T prefix across standings and Discord notifications, fixes #197

- Add buildTiedRankChecker() utility to standings-display.ts; replaces
  four copies of inline rank-count logic spread across components,
  the league home route, and the Discord service
- Prefix shared ranks with "T" (e.g. "T3") in StandingsTable (league
  panel), StandingsTable (full standings), the league home preview, and
  Discord webhook notifications
- Add useMemo wrapping in StandingsTable components so tie detection
  does not recompute on every render
- Fix compareTeamsForRanking to round total points to hundredths before
  comparing, preventing floating-point noise from producing spurious
  non-ties in the standings

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* Fix discord test to expect escaped period in rank display

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

---------

Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-27 20:45:15 -07:00
Chris Parsons
4bffa40606
Fix oxlint warnings: no-shadow, consistent-function-scoping, no-non-null-assertion, and others (#196)
* Fix no-shadow and consistent-function-scoping lint violations

Resolves all 11 no-shadow and 16 consistent-function-scoping oxlint
warnings and promotes both rules to errors in .oxlintrc.json.

no-shadow: renamed Drizzle callback params (sports→s, matches→m,
seasons→s) to avoid shadowing outer imports; removed shadowed
destructures (eq, inArray) from where callbacks; renamed inner
template→bracketTemplate, prev→currentTimers, season→ss, name→teamName
(with name: teamName fix to preserve semantics).

consistent-function-scoping: moved formatDate, getRankBadge,
getMovementIndicator, getPositionBadge, getStatusBadge, toDateStr,
elo (×2), weightedPick, sortByMatchNumber (×2) to module scope;
moved formatTime (×2), isValidLeagueName, getDraftTimes,
makeSeasonQueues to file scope in test files.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* Fix no-non-null-assertion lint violations and promote to error

Eliminates all 208 no-non-null-assertion warnings across 38 files.
Promotes typescript/no-non-null-assertion from warn to error in
.oxlintrc.json.

Fix patterns applied:
- Map.get(key)! after .has() check → extract with get() + null guard
- Map.get(key)! on pre-populated count maps → ?? 0 default
- .set(id, map.get(id)! + 1) increment → ?? 0 before adding
- participant1Id!/participant2Id! on DB matches → ?? "" fallback
- array.find()! in tests → guard + throw or expect().toBeDefined()
- bracketTemplateCache.get(id)! → null guard extract
- Various nullable field accesses → optional chain or ?? default

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* Fix prefer-add-event-listener, no-unassigned-import, require-module-specifiers

Resolves all 9 remaining non-console lint warnings and promotes all
three rules to errors in .oxlintrc.json.

- prefer-add-event-listener: converted onchange/onclick/onload
  assignments to addEventListener in useDraftNotifications.ts and
  admin.data-sync.tsx; stored changeHandler ref for proper cleanup
  with removeEventListener
- no-unassigned-import: configured rule with allow list for legitimate
  side-effect imports (*.css, @testing-library/jest-dom,
  @testing-library/cypress/add-commands)
- require-module-specifiers: removed redundant `export {}` from
  cypress/support/e2e.ts (file already has an import)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* Fix TypeScript errors from no-non-null-assertion fixes

Two fixes introduced by the non-null assertion cleanup produced type
errors:

- scoring-event.ts: `?? ""` was wrong type for a participant object map;
  restructured to explicit null guards so TypeScript can narrow correctly
- standings-sync/index.ts: `?? null` after name-match lookup lost the
  truthy guarantee, causing TS18047 on the write-back block; added
  `participant &&` guard before accessing its properties

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* Add npm run typecheck as Stop hook in Claude settings

Runs a full project typecheck at the end of each Claude turn so type
errors surface as feedback before the next message.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

---------

Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-21 10:59:51 -07:00
Chris Parsons
e2b178221a
Add oxlint linting setup with zero errors (#194)
* Add oxlint and fix all lint errors

- Install oxlint, add .oxlintrc.json with rules for TypeScript/React
- Add npm run lint / lint:fix scripts
- Add Claude PostToolUse hook to run oxlint on every edited file
- Fix 101 errors: unused vars/imports, eqeqeq, prefer-const, no-new-array
- Fix no-array-index-key (use stable keys or suppress positional cases)
- Fix exhaustive-deps missing dependency in useEffect
- Promote exhaustive-deps and no-array-index-key to errors
- Fix Map.get() !== null bug in $leagueId.server.ts (should be !== undefined)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* Fix no-explicit-any warnings and upgrade tsconfig to ES2023

- Replace all `any` types with proper types or `unknown` across ~20 files
- Add typed socket payload interfaces in draft route and useDraftSocket
- Use any[] with eslint-disable for socket.io callbacks (legitimate escape hatch)
- Bump all tsconfigs from ES2022 → ES2023 to support toSorted/toReversed
- Fix cascading type errors uncovered by removing any: Map.get narrowing,
  participant relation types, ChartDataPoint, Partial<NewSeason> indexing
- Add ParticipantResultWithParticipant type to participant-result model
- Fix test fixtures to match updated interfaces (DraftCell, ParticipantResult)
- Fix duplicate getQPStandings import in sportsSeasonId.server.ts

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* Promote no-explicit-any to error

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

---------

Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-21 09:44:05 -07:00
Chris Parsons
d271cc6792
Refactor standings notifications to show only changed teams (#182)
* Refine Discord webhook scoring notifications (fixes #180, #181)

- Filter scored matches to only show matchups where a manager scores
  Brackt points (winner drafted) or has a team eliminated (loser drafted);
  matches with no manager involvement are suppressed entirely.
- Escape Discord markdown characters (_*~`|\) in team names and usernames
  to prevent formatting issues (e.g. double-underscore names causing
  unintended underlines).
- Replace full standings with a "Standings Changes" section that shows
  only teams whose points changed, plus any teams whose rank shifted as a
  result, with ↑N / ↓N indicators for rank movement.
- Pass previousRanks map from scoring-calculator to the notification so
  rank-displaced teams (who didn't score points themselves) are included.
- Update test webhook in league settings to demonstrate rank changes and
  a sample scored match.
- Update all discord service tests to cover the new filtering, escaping,
  and standings-change behaviour.

https://claude.ai/code/session_01FciwfdG9Sfr5ZrXUHPeB18

* fix: only set winnerUsername when winning team's score actually changed

Previously, winnerUsername was set for any drafted winner regardless of
whether points were actually scored. This caused R64 wins (where the
scoring system may not award points until later rounds) to appear in
Discord's Scored Matches section even when no Brackt points were earned.

Now winnerUsername is only set when the winner's team's totalPoints
changed after recalculation. loserUsername (eliminations) is always set
when the loser is drafted, since being knocked out is always notable.

https://claude.ai/code/session_01FciwfdG9Sfr5ZrXUHPeB18

* Refactor Discord notification logic in scoring calculator

- Compute changedTeamIds once up front; derive hasChanges from it
  instead of duplicating the same iteration
- Merge usernameForParticipant and winnerUsernameForParticipant into a
  single function with a requireScoreChange flag
- Replace hasDraftedParticipantMatches with hasScoredMatchesToShow,
  which checks that at least one scoredMatch has a displayable username
  — prevents sending a contentless Discord embed when a drafted winner
  doesn't score any points and the loser isn't drafted
- Update inline comment to be sport-agnostic

https://claude.ai/code/session_01FciwfdG9Sfr5ZrXUHPeB18

---------

Co-authored-by: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-19 15:52:57 -07:00
Chris Parsons
7236c8aefb
Add Discord usernames, fix calculateTeamScore partial-score bug, and add admin re-score action (#160)
**Discord webhook improvements**
- Show team owner username in parentheses in standings (e.g. "1. Alpha FC (christhrowsrocks) — 150 pts")
- Show username in parentheses in match results for drafted participants
  (e.g. "Sporting (christhrowsrocks) def. Bodø/Glimt (apatel)"), omitting
  the parenthesis for the undrafted side
- Username lookup only runs after the webhook URL guard to avoid wasted DB queries
- 4 new tests covering all username display combinations

**Fix calculateTeamScore partial-score counting bug**
- isPartialScore participants were incorrectly counted in participantsCompleted
  and placementCounts, causing standings to show wrong remaining count and
  phantom placement badges (e.g. "5th×1") for still-alive bracket participants
- Floor points still flow into totalPoints (guaranteed value for ranking)
- 3 new unit tests covering partial vs finalized behavior in calculateTeamScore

**Admin Force Re-score action**
- New "Fantasy Standings" card on every sports season admin page with a
  Force Re-score button that triggers recalculateStandings on all linked
  fantasy seasons — useful after data corrections without waiting for a
  new scoring event
- Auth guard added to the action (was missing — layout loader only protects GET)
- Returns a meaningful message when no linked seasons exist
- Intent discriminant on action returns so success banners use actionData.intent
  instead of fragile message.includes() checks

Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-17 14:34:09 -07:00
Chris Parsons
beab6400b2
Fix partial bracket scoring, rank labels, and Discord notification bugs (#158)
- NCAAM R64/R32 winners no longer receive T5 floor points; only Sweet
  Sixteen winners entering the first scoring round get a floor
- AFL T5-T6 and T7-T8 score as separate tiers (avg([5,6]) and avg([7,8]))
  instead of one shared avg([5-8]) pool
- Eliminated teams now always show their correct final rank (e.g. T33 for
  NCAAM R64 losers) even during partial round scoring, by deriving the
  rank label from the total match count per round rather than the dynamic
  still-alive count
- Discord notifications now fire when a drafted participant is eliminated
  with 0 points (e.g. R64 losers whose team score doesn't change)
- Discord notifications no longer include all prior matches — scoped to
  the current batch via matchIds
- Discord section headers have spacing; rank medals replaced with numbers
- Rounds auto-complete when all matches are marked done; manual Complete
  Round dropdown removed
- Fixed double Discord notification when the last match in a round
  triggers auto-complete: processPlayoffEvent now accepts skipRecalculate
  so the caller controls when the notification fires
- Fixed falsy check on finalPosition=0 in calculateTeamScore
- Undrafted 0-point participants filtered from Eliminated Teams display

Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-17 12:34:10 -07:00
Chris Parsons
79f7a41837
Add Discord webhook notifications for standings updates (#157)
* Add Discord webhook notifications for standings updates

Adds a Discord webhook integration that posts standings to a configured
Discord channel whenever scores change after a scoring event. Commissioners
set the webhook URL in league settings and can send a test notification.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* Fix Discord notification edge cases from code review

- Fix point delta sign: negative diffs now correctly show -5 pts not +-5 pts
- Replace hardcoded soccer emoji with a neutral bullet (works for all sports)
- Truncate embed description at Discord's 4096-char limit
- Thread eventId through processMatchResult and bracket batch handler so
  scored matches appear in single-match notifications too
- Pass eventName to finalizeQualifyingPoints ("Final Standings") and
  processSeasonStandings ("Season Complete") so those notifications have context
- Test notification now fetches current season to show "League 2025" format

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* Fix process-match-result tests: add sportsSeasons to db mock

recalculateAffectedLeagues now queries sportsSeasons to get the sport
name for Discord notifications; the test mock db needed the stub added.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

---------

Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-17 11:16:36 -07:00
Chris Parsons
cf8ac8a765
feat: progressive floor scoring for playoff brackets (#100)
When a participant wins a bracket round, they immediately earn provisional
"floor" points (the averaged minimum they'd receive if eliminated next round).
These update as they advance and are replaced by finalized scores on elimination.

Key changes:
- Add `is_partial_score` column to `participant_results` (migration 0038)
- `processPlayoffEvent`: assign provisional position 5 to non-scoring round
  winners; assign round-appropriate floors to scoring round winners via
  `getGuaranteedMinimumPosition`; add catch-all for unrecognized round names
- `upsertParticipantResult`: guard against un-finalizing rows (never overwrite
  isPartialScore=false with true)
- `calculateBracketPoints`: new function averaging tied bracket tiers
  (5-8 → 20 pts, 3-4 → avg, 1-2 solo); used in `calculateTeamScore` for
  playoff_bracket pattern (pattern-aware, doesn't affect F1/golf scoring)
- `PlayoffBracket`: "In Contention" table for still-active participants;
  AFL double-chance fix (participants who won a later match excluded from
  earlier round's loser list); correct `nextRank` starting position
- Server loader: batch owner DB queries (one query vs N+1); deduplicate
  participantPoints; use calculateBracketPoints for bracket point display
- Clean up Phase/Q-number tracking comments throughout scoring-calculator.ts
- 3 new tests for non-scoring round provisional floor behavior

Also includes a dev admin bypass via DEV_ADMIN_CLERK_ID env var (separate
change on this branch, not part of floor scoring feature).

Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-10 10:27:58 -07:00
Chris Parsons
9211cad7d1 fix: correct test expectations for ICM edge cases and duplicate text queries
- ICM tests: fix single participant, zero probabilities, and 2-participant
  tests to account for simulation only filling min(participants, 8) positions
- TeamScoreBreakdown tests: use getAllByText for "150.0" which now appears
  in both the header and the Actual Points summary card

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-02-17 14:24:07 -08:00
Chris Parsons
96b4c5a350 fix: align ev-calculator tests with decimal (0-1) probability format
The implementation and rest of the system (ICM calculator, probability
updater) use decimals (0-1) for probabilities, but the tests were using
percentages (0-100). Updated tests and docs to match.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-02-14 23:26:32 -08:00
Chris Parsons
840212c4f8 feat: implement sports season expected value calculations and probability updates
- Added loader and action functions for managing expected values in sports seasons.
- Implemented UI for recalculating probabilities based on participant results.
- Created a service to update probabilities after results are finalized, including handling finished and unfinished participants.
- Developed tests for the probability updater service to ensure correct functionality.
- Introduced a preview feature to show potential changes before applying updates.
2025-11-21 22:05:50 -08:00
Chris Parsons
79ec477a98 feat: implement Expected Value System with ICM probability calculator
Implements Phase 5.2 of the EV system with Harville-Malmuth Independent Chip Model
for calculating participant placement probabilities from futures odds.

## Key Features

### ICM Probability Calculator
- Implements Harville-Malmuth method for distributing probabilities
- Converts American odds to championship probabilities
- Generates P(1st) through P(8th) for all participants
- Column-normalized: each placement sums to 100% across all teams
- Works with any number of participants (not limited to 8)

### Admin UI - Futures Odds Entry
- Enter American odds (e.g., +550, -200) for championship futures
- Live preview of ICM-calculated probability distributions
- Displays all 8 placement probabilities
- Persists odds for editing on subsequent visits
- Automatic probability normalization (removes bookmaker vig)

### Database Schema Updates
- Renamed participant_expected_values.season_id → sports_season_id
- Updated foreign key to reference sports_seasons instead of seasons
- Added source_odds field to store original futures odds
- Migration 0025: Column rename and FK update
- Migration 0026: Add source_odds field

### Model Layer
- participant-expected-value: CRUD operations for probability distributions
- Supports multiple probability sources (manual, futures_odds, elo_simulation)
- Automatic EV calculation based on league scoring rules
- Probability validation and normalization

### Service Layer
- icm-calculator: Harville-Malmuth probability distribution
- probability-engine: Odds conversion and Elo utilities (for future use)
- bracket-simulator: Monte Carlo simulation (for future hybrid approach)
- ev-calculator: Expected value computation from probabilities

## Technical Details

- Uses exponential decay favoring top positions for strong teams
- Preserves championship probability ordering in final distributions
- Row sums vary (strong teams ~100%, weak teams lower)
- All probabilities between 0-1, mathematically valid
- Comprehensive test suite: 97 tests passing

## Future Enhancements

- Hybrid approach: ICM pre-playoffs, bracket simulation during playoffs
- Integration with league-specific scoring rules
- Historical probability tracking for accuracy analysis

🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.com/claude-code)

Co-Authored-By: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
2025-11-17 22:19:46 -08:00