- NCAAM: KenPom AEM logistic formula (1/(1+exp(-diff/7.5))), data through 2025-26 March 15
- NCAAW: Barttorvik Barthag Log5 formula (A*(1-B)/(A*(1-B)+B*(1-A))), same bracket structure
- Both simulators: 50,000-iteration Monte Carlo, First Four simulation, honors completed matches
- Track E8+ placements only: champion, finalist, FF losers (3rd/4th), E8 losers (5th–8th)
- Add bracket configuration validation: null R64 slots must exactly match First Four mapping
- Fix DEFAULT_SCORING_RULES to 100/70/45/45/20/20/20/20 (3rd/4th=45, 5th–8th=20)
- Align scoring constants across simulate route, expected-values display, and server action
- Zero out EVs for non-bracket participants on every simulation run (prevents EV inflation)
- Add EV total invariant warning (expected ~340) on expected-values admin page
- 98 unit tests across NCAAM, NCAAW, and UCL simulators — all passing
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* fix: remove probability sum validation and add batch save with total EV
- Remove the requirement that manual probabilities sum to 1.0, allowing
partial distributions (e.g. when a participant has <100% chance of top 8)
- Replace per-row save buttons with a single "Save All" button that submits
all participants at once
- Add a Total EV row at the bottom of the table summing all participant EVs
- Update action to batch process all participants from a single form submission
https://claude.ai/code/session_01WHRynBCcugSK7HHEmN6Yuy
* fix: validate participantIds server-side instead of trusting form input
Fetch participants from the DB in the action using the season ID from
the URL params, eliminating the untrusted participantIds hidden field.
Remove the now-unused hidden input from the frontend form.
https://claude.ai/code/session_01WHRynBCcugSK7HHEmN6Yuy
---------
Co-authored-by: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
- Added loader and action functions for managing expected values in sports seasons.
- Implemented UI for recalculating probabilities based on participant results.
- Created a service to update probabilities after results are finalized, including handling finished and unfinished participants.
- Developed tests for the probability updater service to ensure correct functionality.
- Introduced a preview feature to show potential changes before applying updates.
