Commit graph

21 commits

Author SHA1 Message Date
Chris Parsons
4bffa40606
Fix oxlint warnings: no-shadow, consistent-function-scoping, no-non-null-assertion, and others (#196)
* Fix no-shadow and consistent-function-scoping lint violations

Resolves all 11 no-shadow and 16 consistent-function-scoping oxlint
warnings and promotes both rules to errors in .oxlintrc.json.

no-shadow: renamed Drizzle callback params (sports→s, matches→m,
seasons→s) to avoid shadowing outer imports; removed shadowed
destructures (eq, inArray) from where callbacks; renamed inner
template→bracketTemplate, prev→currentTimers, season→ss, name→teamName
(with name: teamName fix to preserve semantics).

consistent-function-scoping: moved formatDate, getRankBadge,
getMovementIndicator, getPositionBadge, getStatusBadge, toDateStr,
elo (×2), weightedPick, sortByMatchNumber (×2) to module scope;
moved formatTime (×2), isValidLeagueName, getDraftTimes,
makeSeasonQueues to file scope in test files.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* Fix no-non-null-assertion lint violations and promote to error

Eliminates all 208 no-non-null-assertion warnings across 38 files.
Promotes typescript/no-non-null-assertion from warn to error in
.oxlintrc.json.

Fix patterns applied:
- Map.get(key)! after .has() check → extract with get() + null guard
- Map.get(key)! on pre-populated count maps → ?? 0 default
- .set(id, map.get(id)! + 1) increment → ?? 0 before adding
- participant1Id!/participant2Id! on DB matches → ?? "" fallback
- array.find()! in tests → guard + throw or expect().toBeDefined()
- bracketTemplateCache.get(id)! → null guard extract
- Various nullable field accesses → optional chain or ?? default

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* Fix prefer-add-event-listener, no-unassigned-import, require-module-specifiers

Resolves all 9 remaining non-console lint warnings and promotes all
three rules to errors in .oxlintrc.json.

- prefer-add-event-listener: converted onchange/onclick/onload
  assignments to addEventListener in useDraftNotifications.ts and
  admin.data-sync.tsx; stored changeHandler ref for proper cleanup
  with removeEventListener
- no-unassigned-import: configured rule with allow list for legitimate
  side-effect imports (*.css, @testing-library/jest-dom,
  @testing-library/cypress/add-commands)
- require-module-specifiers: removed redundant `export {}` from
  cypress/support/e2e.ts (file already has an import)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* Fix TypeScript errors from no-non-null-assertion fixes

Two fixes introduced by the non-null assertion cleanup produced type
errors:

- scoring-event.ts: `?? ""` was wrong type for a participant object map;
  restructured to explicit null guards so TypeScript can narrow correctly
- standings-sync/index.ts: `?? null` after name-match lookup lost the
  truthy guarantee, causing TS18047 on the write-back block; added
  `participant &&` guard before accessing its properties

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* Add npm run typecheck as Stop hook in Claude settings

Runs a full project typecheck at the end of each Claude turn so type
errors surface as feedback before the next message.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

---------

Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-21 10:59:51 -07:00
Chris Parsons
e2b178221a
Add oxlint linting setup with zero errors (#194)
* Add oxlint and fix all lint errors

- Install oxlint, add .oxlintrc.json with rules for TypeScript/React
- Add npm run lint / lint:fix scripts
- Add Claude PostToolUse hook to run oxlint on every edited file
- Fix 101 errors: unused vars/imports, eqeqeq, prefer-const, no-new-array
- Fix no-array-index-key (use stable keys or suppress positional cases)
- Fix exhaustive-deps missing dependency in useEffect
- Promote exhaustive-deps and no-array-index-key to errors
- Fix Map.get() !== null bug in $leagueId.server.ts (should be !== undefined)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* Fix no-explicit-any warnings and upgrade tsconfig to ES2023

- Replace all `any` types with proper types or `unknown` across ~20 files
- Add typed socket payload interfaces in draft route and useDraftSocket
- Use any[] with eslint-disable for socket.io callbacks (legitimate escape hatch)
- Bump all tsconfigs from ES2022 → ES2023 to support toSorted/toReversed
- Fix cascading type errors uncovered by removing any: Map.get narrowing,
  participant relation types, ChartDataPoint, Partial<NewSeason> indexing
- Add ParticipantResultWithParticipant type to participant-result model
- Fix test fixtures to match updated interfaces (DraftCell, ParticipantResult)
- Fix duplicate getQPStandings import in sportsSeasonId.server.ts

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* Promote no-explicit-any to error

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

---------

Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-21 09:44:05 -07:00
Chris Parsons
bcca8b76fa
Add regular season standings for NBA/NHL (fixes #89) (#192)
Adds live standings sync and display for bracket-based sports (NBA/NHL),
so league members can see W/L tables and which teams their opponents drafted
during the regular season — not just after the playoff bracket is set.

- New `regular_season_standings` table with upsert-on-conflict sync
- Standings sync service with NHL (api-web.nhle.com) and NBA (ESPN) adapters,
  externalId write-back for future syncs, and unmatched-team resolution UI
- `RegularSeasonStandings` component: flat (NBA) + division/wild-card (NHL) modes,
  playoff line, TeamOwnerBadge, projected Brackt points (EV), mobile horizontal scroll
- Admin "Sync Standings" card + "Resolve Unmatched" UI on sports season page
- Admin manual standings edit hatch at /admin/sports-seasons/:id/regular-standings
- Show standings above bracket until matches exist; below once bracket is set
- `normalize-team-name` utility extracted to shared lib

Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-21 00:12:01 -07:00
Chris Parsons
d271cc6792
Refactor standings notifications to show only changed teams (#182)
* Refine Discord webhook scoring notifications (fixes #180, #181)

- Filter scored matches to only show matchups where a manager scores
  Brackt points (winner drafted) or has a team eliminated (loser drafted);
  matches with no manager involvement are suppressed entirely.
- Escape Discord markdown characters (_*~`|\) in team names and usernames
  to prevent formatting issues (e.g. double-underscore names causing
  unintended underlines).
- Replace full standings with a "Standings Changes" section that shows
  only teams whose points changed, plus any teams whose rank shifted as a
  result, with ↑N / ↓N indicators for rank movement.
- Pass previousRanks map from scoring-calculator to the notification so
  rank-displaced teams (who didn't score points themselves) are included.
- Update test webhook in league settings to demonstrate rank changes and
  a sample scored match.
- Update all discord service tests to cover the new filtering, escaping,
  and standings-change behaviour.

https://claude.ai/code/session_01FciwfdG9Sfr5ZrXUHPeB18

* fix: only set winnerUsername when winning team's score actually changed

Previously, winnerUsername was set for any drafted winner regardless of
whether points were actually scored. This caused R64 wins (where the
scoring system may not award points until later rounds) to appear in
Discord's Scored Matches section even when no Brackt points were earned.

Now winnerUsername is only set when the winner's team's totalPoints
changed after recalculation. loserUsername (eliminations) is always set
when the loser is drafted, since being knocked out is always notable.

https://claude.ai/code/session_01FciwfdG9Sfr5ZrXUHPeB18

* Refactor Discord notification logic in scoring calculator

- Compute changedTeamIds once up front; derive hasChanges from it
  instead of duplicating the same iteration
- Merge usernameForParticipant and winnerUsernameForParticipant into a
  single function with a requireScoreChange flag
- Replace hasDraftedParticipantMatches with hasScoredMatchesToShow,
  which checks that at least one scoredMatch has a displayable username
  — prevents sending a contentless Discord embed when a drafted winner
  doesn't score any points and the loser isn't drafted
- Update inline comment to be sport-agnostic

https://claude.ai/code/session_01FciwfdG9Sfr5ZrXUHPeB18

---------

Co-authored-by: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-19 15:52:57 -07:00
Chris Parsons
143698cb96
Fix NCAAM/NCAAW simulators: FF completion handling and validation hardening (#169)
Fixes the "slot is already filled" simulation error when First Four games
have already been played and their winners advanced to the Round of 64.

Changes:
- Fix FF→R64 validation to allow a filled R64 slot when the corresponding
  First Four match is already complete (the original bug)
- Fix isComplete guard for E8/FF/Championship: derive loser from stored
  participant IDs when loserId is null rather than re-simulating a real game
- Add round count validation for all rounds (R32 16, S16 8, E8 4, FF 2, Champ 1)
  to catch malformed brackets before the hot sim loop instead of producing
  silent garbage output
- Add participant1Id null check in the First Four path (mirrors the no-FF path)
- Add console.warn when participant IDs are missing from DB (fall-back to
  average strength instead of crashing)
- Import NCAA_68.regions from bracket-templates.ts instead of duplicating the
  hardcoded fallback in each simulator
- Fix duplicate step-9 comment number in ncaam-simulator.ts

Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-18 01:37:55 -07:00
Chris Parsons
6f5ea35952
Add NHL playoff simulator and fix simulator dropdown (#166)
Closes #115

- Add `NHLSimulator` using NHL's divisional bracket format (top 3 per
  division + 2 wildcards per conference, best-of-7 series, parity
  factor 800). Elo ratings and seeding probabilities sourced from
  elo.harvitronix.com/nhl/2025-2026 as of March 18, 2026.
- Add `nhl_bracket` to `simulatorTypeEnum` with migration.
- Register `NHLSimulator` in the simulator registry.
- Fix simulator type dropdown in admin to auto-generate from the
  registry instead of a hardcoded list, so new simulators appear
  automatically without a separate UI change.

Code review fixes applied to the simulator:
- Narrow `weightedPick` key type to the five seeding probability fields
  (was `keyof NhlTeamData`, allowing `"elo"` which would silently
  corrupt results)
- Remove uniform-random fallback in `weightedPick` — zero-weight draws
  now return `undefined` and are skipped, preventing eliminated teams
  from becoming wildcards
- Exclude unrecognized participants entirely (with a console warning)
  instead of silently routing them into the Eastern wildcard pool
- Replace the confusing for-of loop over both conferences (with unused
  `champ` variable and `!`-suppressed unitialized vars) with two
  explicit sequential East/West blocks
- Track `effectiveN` for skipped degenerate draws so probability
  denominators stay accurate; throw if all iterations are skipped

Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-18 01:23:53 -07:00
Chris Parsons
7236c8aefb
Add Discord usernames, fix calculateTeamScore partial-score bug, and add admin re-score action (#160)
**Discord webhook improvements**
- Show team owner username in parentheses in standings (e.g. "1. Alpha FC (christhrowsrocks) — 150 pts")
- Show username in parentheses in match results for drafted participants
  (e.g. "Sporting (christhrowsrocks) def. Bodø/Glimt (apatel)"), omitting
  the parenthesis for the undrafted side
- Username lookup only runs after the webhook URL guard to avoid wasted DB queries
- 4 new tests covering all username display combinations

**Fix calculateTeamScore partial-score counting bug**
- isPartialScore participants were incorrectly counted in participantsCompleted
  and placementCounts, causing standings to show wrong remaining count and
  phantom placement badges (e.g. "5th×1") for still-alive bracket participants
- Floor points still flow into totalPoints (guaranteed value for ranking)
- 3 new unit tests covering partial vs finalized behavior in calculateTeamScore

**Admin Force Re-score action**
- New "Fantasy Standings" card on every sports season admin page with a
  Force Re-score button that triggers recalculateStandings on all linked
  fantasy seasons — useful after data corrections without waiting for a
  new scoring event
- Auth guard added to the action (was missing — layout loader only protects GET)
- Returns a meaningful message when no linked seasons exist
- Intent discriminant on action returns so success banners use actionData.intent
  instead of fragile message.includes() checks

Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-17 14:34:09 -07:00
Chris Parsons
beab6400b2
Fix partial bracket scoring, rank labels, and Discord notification bugs (#158)
- NCAAM R64/R32 winners no longer receive T5 floor points; only Sweet
  Sixteen winners entering the first scoring round get a floor
- AFL T5-T6 and T7-T8 score as separate tiers (avg([5,6]) and avg([7,8]))
  instead of one shared avg([5-8]) pool
- Eliminated teams now always show their correct final rank (e.g. T33 for
  NCAAM R64 losers) even during partial round scoring, by deriving the
  rank label from the total match count per round rather than the dynamic
  still-alive count
- Discord notifications now fire when a drafted participant is eliminated
  with 0 points (e.g. R64 losers whose team score doesn't change)
- Discord notifications no longer include all prior matches — scoped to
  the current batch via matchIds
- Discord section headers have spacing; rank medals replaced with numbers
- Rounds auto-complete when all matches are marked done; manual Complete
  Round dropdown removed
- Fixed double Discord notification when the last match in a round
  triggers auto-complete: processPlayoffEvent now accepts skipRecalculate
  so the caller controls when the notification fires
- Fixed falsy check on finalPosition=0 in calculateTeamScore
- Undrafted 0-point participants filtered from Eliminated Teams display

Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-17 12:34:10 -07:00
Chris Parsons
79f7a41837
Add Discord webhook notifications for standings updates (#157)
* Add Discord webhook notifications for standings updates

Adds a Discord webhook integration that posts standings to a configured
Discord channel whenever scores change after a scoring event. Commissioners
set the webhook URL in league settings and can send a test notification.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* Fix Discord notification edge cases from code review

- Fix point delta sign: negative diffs now correctly show -5 pts not +-5 pts
- Replace hardcoded soccer emoji with a neutral bullet (works for all sports)
- Truncate embed description at Discord's 4096-char limit
- Thread eventId through processMatchResult and bracket batch handler so
  scored matches appear in single-match notifications too
- Pass eventName to finalizeQualifyingPoints ("Final Standings") and
  processSeasonStandings ("Season Complete") so those notifications have context
- Test notification now fetches current season to show "League 2025" format

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* Fix process-match-result tests: add sportsSeasons to db mock

recalculateAffectedLeagues now queries sportsSeasons to get the sport
name for Discord notifications; the test mock db needed the stub added.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

---------

Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-17 11:16:36 -07:00
Chris Parsons
dbffddc9ff
Partial bracket scoring, code review fixes, and double-chance logic (#156)
## Partial bracket scoring
- `processMatchResult`: new exported function that scores a single match
  immediately (loser → final placement, winner → provisional floor).
  Called from `set-winner` and `set-round-winners` so points are awarded
  as soon as a winner is set, before the full round is complete.
- `set-winner`: passes `eventName` to `processMatchResult`.
- `set-round-winners`: batches side effects — calls `recalculateAffectedLeagues`
  and `updateProbabilitiesAfterResult` once after the loop instead of per-match
  (`skipSideEffects: true` per match).

## Code review fixes
- **ROUND_CONFIG** (S1): extracted a `RoundScoringConfig` lookup table +
  `getRoundConfig()` helper, eliminating three parallel `if/else` chains in
  `processPlayoffEvent`, `processMatchResult`, and `getGuaranteedMinimumPosition`.
  AFL template overrides live in `TEMPLATE_ROUND_CONFIG` with an explanatory
  comment about why the `bracketTemplateId` guard is required.
- **skipSideEffects** (C2): new param on `processMatchResult`; bracket server
  uses it to batch standings/probability recalc in `set-round-winners`.
- **eventName** (W1): passed through `processMatchResult` → `recalculateAffectedLeagues`.
- **Round validation** (W2): `set-round-winners` now guards `match.round === round`
  before processing each assignment.
- **Comments** (C3/S3/W3): added notes on non-scoring loser assumption,
  `isScoring ?? true` default, and AFL Semi-Finals template requirement.

## PlayoffBracket eliminated-teams fix + tests
- Fixed `computeEliminatedByRound` to track participant *appearances* (not just
  wins), so AFL QF losers who advance to Semi-Finals via double-chance are
  correctly excluded from the QF eliminated list.
- Extracted the logic as an exported pure function for testability.
- Added 4 tests: standard elimination, AFL QF loser → SF win, AFL QF loser →
  SF loss, and normal advancement not protecting a later loser.

Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-17 10:50:30 -07:00
Chris Parsons
cbaab920f9
Add NBA playoff bracket Monte Carlo simulator (#154)
Adds a new `nba_bracket` simulator that projects both regular season
seedings and the full NBA playoff bracket, unlike other simulators that
operate on a pre-set bracket stored in the DB.

Algorithm:
- Per iteration: each team draws a conference seed (1–10) weighted by
  BBRef seed probabilities, then seeds 7–10 play the Play-In tournament
  (single elimination), then the resulting 8-team bracket is simulated
  as best-of-7 series using Elo playoff ratings
- Elo source: playoff rating (last 110 games, no regression to mean,
  postseason games weighted 3×) — appropriate for playoff matchup quality
- Seed probs source: Basketball-Reference (March 16, 2026), scaled from
  conditional to unconditional by multiplying by each team's Playoffs%

Placement tiers map to SimulationProbabilities:
  probFirst/Second → NBA champion / Finals loser
  probThird/Fourth → Conference Finals losers (2 per sim)
  probFifth–Eighth → Conference Semis losers (4 per sim)

Files:
- app/services/simulations/nba-simulator.ts (new)
- drizzle/0046_add_nba_bracket_simulator_type.sql (new)
- database/schema.ts: adds `nba_bracket` to simulatorTypeEnum
- app/services/simulations/registry.ts: registers NBASimulator

Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-16 21:43:39 -07:00
Chris Parsons
84787c9a4b
Consolidate F1/IndyCar simulators into shared AutoRacingSimulator class (#151)
Replaces the duplicated F1Simulator (which was copy-pasted for IndyCar) with a
single AutoRacingSimulator that accepts a race points table at construction time.
Registry entries for f1_standings and indycar_standings remain separate, each
wired to the correct scoring system (F1: top-10, IndyCar: top-26 positions).

Also imports SIMULATOR_TYPES from registry into the admin route to eliminate the
duplicate hardcoded array, and updates stale comments mentioning F1/IndyCar.

Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-16 12:22:08 -07:00
Chris Parsons
714e6e5908 Fix UConn in NCAAW sim 2026-03-15 23:43:46 -07:00
Chris Parsons
47b8935be6
Add NCAAM and NCAAW bracket Monte Carlo simulators (#150)
- NCAAM: KenPom AEM logistic formula (1/(1+exp(-diff/7.5))), data through 2025-26 March 15
- NCAAW: Barttorvik Barthag Log5 formula (A*(1-B)/(A*(1-B)+B*(1-A))), same bracket structure
- Both simulators: 50,000-iteration Monte Carlo, First Four simulation, honors completed matches
- Track E8+ placements only: champion, finalist, FF losers (3rd/4th), E8 losers (5th–8th)
- Add bracket configuration validation: null R64 slots must exactly match First Four mapping
- Fix DEFAULT_SCORING_RULES to 100/70/45/45/20/20/20/20 (3rd/4th=45, 5th–8th=20)
- Align scoring constants across simulate route, expected-values display, and server action
- Zero out EVs for non-bracket participants on every simulation run (prevents EV inflation)
- Add EV total invariant warning (expected ~340) on expected-values admin page
- 98 unit tests across NCAAM, NCAAW, and UCL simulators — all passing

Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-15 23:31:47 -07:00
Chris Parsons
70c22d03fc
feat: add UCL bracket Monte Carlo simulator (#131)
Implements a 16-team UEFA Champions League knockout bracket simulator
using blended Elo + futures odds probabilities (70/30 split). Tracks
integer placement counts per tier to avoid fractional accumulation
drift, ensuring total EV sums to exactly 340 by construction.

- New UCLSimulator class reading live playoffMatches from DB
- Respects completed match results (eliminated teams get exact EV)
- New ucl_bracket simulator_type enum value + migration
- Registered in simulator registry; added to admin sport selector
- 18 unit tests covering math, bracket path, and integration scenarios

Fixes #113

Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-10 23:04:51 -07:00
Chris Parsons
cf8ac8a765
feat: progressive floor scoring for playoff brackets (#100)
When a participant wins a bracket round, they immediately earn provisional
"floor" points (the averaged minimum they'd receive if eliminated next round).
These update as they advance and are replaced by finalized scores on elimination.

Key changes:
- Add `is_partial_score` column to `participant_results` (migration 0038)
- `processPlayoffEvent`: assign provisional position 5 to non-scoring round
  winners; assign round-appropriate floors to scoring round winners via
  `getGuaranteedMinimumPosition`; add catch-all for unrecognized round names
- `upsertParticipantResult`: guard against un-finalizing rows (never overwrite
  isPartialScore=false with true)
- `calculateBracketPoints`: new function averaging tied bracket tiers
  (5-8 → 20 pts, 3-4 → avg, 1-2 solo); used in `calculateTeamScore` for
  playoff_bracket pattern (pattern-aware, doesn't affect F1/golf scoring)
- `PlayoffBracket`: "In Contention" table for still-active participants;
  AFL double-chance fix (participants who won a later match excluded from
  earlier round's loser list); correct `nextRank` starting position
- Server loader: batch owner DB queries (one query vs N+1); deduplicate
  participantPoints; use calculateBracketPoints for bracket point display
- Clean up Phase/Q-number tracking comments throughout scoring-calculator.ts
- 3 new tests for non-scoring round provisional floor behavior

Also includes a dev admin bypass via DEV_ADMIN_CLERK_ID env var (separate
change on this branch, not part of floor scoring feature).

Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-10 10:27:58 -07:00
Chris Parsons
c6ba59b0e6
User/chris/ev f1 framework (#93)
* feat: EV simulation framework with F1 Monte Carlo simulator

- Add EV snapshot tables (participant_ev_snapshots, team_ev_snapshots) and simulation_status column on sports seasons
- Add ev-snapshot model with upsert and history query functions
- Add simulator framework: types, bracket/F1/golf simulators, registry
- F1 simulator: vig-removed ICM weighted draw (pre-season) + race-by-race Monte Carlo from current standings (in-season); per-position column normalization to prevent floating-point EV drift
- Add admin simulate route and Run Simulation button on sports season page
- Rework futures-odds admin page to save odds then run simulation in one action
- Remove recalculate-probabilities route (superseded by simulate route)
- Remove EV trend chart panel and associated DB queries

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* feat: map simulators to sports via simulatorType field

Adds a `simulator_type` enum column to the `sports` table so each sport
can be assigned a specific simulation algorithm rather than deriving it
from the sports season's scoring pattern.

- Add `simulatorTypeEnum` (f1_standings, indycar_standings,
  golf_qualifying_points, playoff_bracket) + `simulatorType` nullable
  column on `sports` table; migration 0037
- Rewrite simulator registry to key off `SimulatorType` instead of
  `ScoringPattern`; indycar_standings shares F1Simulator for now
- `findSportsSeasonById` now returns `SportsSeasonWithSport` so callers
  have typed access to `sport.simulatorType`
- Simulate and futures-odds actions read `sport.simulatorType`; guard
  fires before setting `simulationStatus: running`
- Admin sport edit page gains a Simulator Type dropdown

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

---------

Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-09 15:34:31 -07:00
Chris Parsons
9211cad7d1 fix: correct test expectations for ICM edge cases and duplicate text queries
- ICM tests: fix single participant, zero probabilities, and 2-participant
  tests to account for simulation only filling min(participants, 8) positions
- TeamScoreBreakdown tests: use getAllByText for "150.0" which now appears
  in both the header and the Actual Points summary card

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-02-17 14:24:07 -08:00
Chris Parsons
96b4c5a350 fix: align ev-calculator tests with decimal (0-1) probability format
The implementation and rest of the system (ICM calculator, probability
updater) use decimals (0-1) for probabilities, but the tests were using
percentages (0-100). Updated tests and docs to match.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-02-14 23:26:32 -08:00
Chris Parsons
840212c4f8 feat: implement sports season expected value calculations and probability updates
- Added loader and action functions for managing expected values in sports seasons.
- Implemented UI for recalculating probabilities based on participant results.
- Created a service to update probabilities after results are finalized, including handling finished and unfinished participants.
- Developed tests for the probability updater service to ensure correct functionality.
- Introduced a preview feature to show potential changes before applying updates.
2025-11-21 22:05:50 -08:00
Chris Parsons
79ec477a98 feat: implement Expected Value System with ICM probability calculator
Implements Phase 5.2 of the EV system with Harville-Malmuth Independent Chip Model
for calculating participant placement probabilities from futures odds.

## Key Features

### ICM Probability Calculator
- Implements Harville-Malmuth method for distributing probabilities
- Converts American odds to championship probabilities
- Generates P(1st) through P(8th) for all participants
- Column-normalized: each placement sums to 100% across all teams
- Works with any number of participants (not limited to 8)

### Admin UI - Futures Odds Entry
- Enter American odds (e.g., +550, -200) for championship futures
- Live preview of ICM-calculated probability distributions
- Displays all 8 placement probabilities
- Persists odds for editing on subsequent visits
- Automatic probability normalization (removes bookmaker vig)

### Database Schema Updates
- Renamed participant_expected_values.season_id → sports_season_id
- Updated foreign key to reference sports_seasons instead of seasons
- Added source_odds field to store original futures odds
- Migration 0025: Column rename and FK update
- Migration 0026: Add source_odds field

### Model Layer
- participant-expected-value: CRUD operations for probability distributions
- Supports multiple probability sources (manual, futures_odds, elo_simulation)
- Automatic EV calculation based on league scoring rules
- Probability validation and normalization

### Service Layer
- icm-calculator: Harville-Malmuth probability distribution
- probability-engine: Odds conversion and Elo utilities (for future use)
- bracket-simulator: Monte Carlo simulation (for future hybrid approach)
- ev-calculator: Expected value computation from probabilities

## Technical Details

- Uses exponential decay favoring top positions for strong teams
- Preserves championship probability ordering in final distributions
- Row sums vary (strong teams ~100%, weak teams lower)
- All probabilities between 0-1, mathematically valid
- Comprehensive test suite: 97 tests passing

## Future Enhancements

- Hybrid approach: ICM pre-playoffs, bracket simulation during playoffs
- Integration with league-specific scoring rules
- Historical probability tracking for accuracy analysis

🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.com/claude-code)

Co-Authored-By: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
2025-11-17 22:19:46 -08:00