5 commits

Author	SHA1	Message	Date
Chris Parsons	6772079e86	Reflect group stage in World Cup sim; seed R32 from real 2026 bracket ... The World Cup Monte Carlo simulator ignored the admin-populated knockout draw and re-paired its own simulated group output sequentially, so bracket paths from the Round of 32 onward did not match the real tournament. It also silently invented 12 synthetic groups when none were configured, discarding real group-stage results. Rework the simulator around three regimes: - draw set → simulate the real R32 matchups, advancing through the bracket tree via the canonical ceil(matchNumber/2) rule (matching advanceWinnerTemplate) so sim paths match the admin tooling. - groups only → simulate remaining group matches, then seed the R32 with the official 2026 group-position template + FIFA's exact Annex C best-third-place allocation (495-row published table). - neither → futures-seeded bracket fallback, flagged via result source. Completed group and knockout matches still lock in real results at every round. New app/lib/fifa-2026-bracket.ts encodes the R32 group-position template (official FIFA matches 73-88 mapped onto DB matchNumbers 1-16 so the tree reproduces the real halves) and assignThirdPlaceSlots(). The Annex C table is generated deterministically by scripts/gen-fifa-third-place.mjs into app/lib/fifa-2026-third-place-allocation.ts. Tests assert exact Annex C values, cross-check the template's eligible groups against all 495 combinations, and cover each regime including the partial-draw dedup and fully-drawn fast path. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>	2026-06-23 12:15:45 -07:00
chrisp	03726f1a66	Fix simulator correctness bugs and reduce test iteration counts (#61) ... ## Summary - **Bug fix**: EPL Elo/odds fallback was gated on \`dbEloMap.size === 0\` — if any team had a direct \`sourceElo\`, teams with only \`sourceOdds\` were never populated and the simulator threw "Missing Elo" instead of using their odds data - **Iterations**: WorldCupSimulator default 50k→10k; manifest \`defaultConfig\` for \`world_cup\` and \`epl_standings\` now explicitly override \`BASE_CONFIG\` with 10k so the production fallback matches; test iterations reduced (WorldCup 500→100, EPL 10k→500) to fix timeout failures on slower CI - **Cleanup**: Extracted \`runKnockoutRound\` out of the 10k-iteration simulation loop; replaced two hot-loop \`toSorted()\` calls on 2-element arrays with a conditional string comparison; removed local \`normalizeProbabilities\` in favour of the shared \`normalizeSimulationResultColumns\` ## Test plan - [ ] \`npm run test:run\` — all simulator unit tests pass without timeout - [ ] Typecheck passes (\`npm run typecheck\`) - [ ] EPL simulate with mixed Elo+odds data no longer throws 🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.com/claude-code) Co-authored-by: Chris Parsons <chrisparsons1127@gmail.com> Reviewed-on: #61	2026-05-31 17:39:43 +00:00
Chris Parsons	caaffda236	Deduplicate soccer simulator helpers (#391)	2026-05-07 11:48:57 -07:00
Chris Parsons	2848231235	Canonical tournament layer: schema + backfill (1/2) (#365) ... * refactor(schema): rename per-window tables to season_* prefix Renames participants, participant_expected_values, participant_qualifying_totals, participant_results, participant_surface_elos to season_* prefixed names. Renames event_results.participant_id to season_participant_id. Phase 1a of canonical tournament layer migration. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com> * refactor: rename participant.ts model file to season-participant.ts Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com> * refactor(models): update model layer to use renamed schema exports Updated all model files to use the renamed schema exports from Task 1: - participants → seasonParticipants - participantExpectedValues → seasonParticipantExpectedValues - participantQualifyingTotals → seasonParticipantQualifyingTotals - participantResults → seasonParticipantResults - participantSurfaceElos → seasonParticipantSurfaceElos - eventResults.participantId → eventResults.seasonParticipantId - db.query relation accessors updated - Relation field .participant → .seasonParticipant where applicable - Import paths updated: ./participant → ./season-participant Files updated (14 model files + 3 test files): - draft-pick.ts - draft-utils.ts - event-result.ts - group-stage-match.ts - participant-result.ts - qualifying-points.ts - scoring-calculator.ts - scoring-event.ts - sports-season.ts - surface-elo.ts - team-score-events.ts - cs2-major-stage.ts - golf-skills.ts - participant-expected-value.ts - __tests__/sports-season.clone.test.ts - __tests__/auto-pick.test.ts - __tests__/executeAutoPick.timer.test.ts Typecheck errors decreased: 779 → 499 (280 fewer) All model file errors related to renamed schemas resolved. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com> * refactor(routes): update route layer to use renamed schema exports - Update model import from ~/models/participant to ~/models/season-participant - Rename schema.participants to schema.seasonParticipants - Rename schema.participantResults to schema.seasonParticipantResults - Rename db.query.participants to db.query.seasonParticipants - Update 9 route files and 1 test file Affected files: - admin.sports-seasons.$id.events.$eventId.bracket.server.ts - admin.sports-seasons.$id.participants.tsx - api/draft.force-manual-pick.ts - api/draft.make-pick.ts - api/draft.replace-pick.ts - api/seasons.$seasonId.draft.ts - leagues/$leagueId.draft-board.$seasonId.tsx - leagues/$leagueId.sports-seasons.$sportsSeasonId.server.ts - admin/__tests__/sports-seasons-participants.test.ts Error count reduced from 499 to 453 (46 errors fixed). Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com> * refactor(routes): update route files for schema rename Update route imports from ~/models/participant to ~/models/season-participant and fix references to .participant/.participantId on event results to use .seasonParticipant/.seasonParticipantId after schema rename. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com> * refactor(services): update simulators and services for renamed schema Update all simulators, services, and server files to use renamed schema tables: - participants → seasonParticipants - participantExpectedValues → seasonParticipantExpectedValues - participantResults → seasonParticipantResults - eventResults.participantId → eventResults.seasonParticipantId Files updated: - 20 sport simulators (NBA, NHL, NFL, MLB, etc.) - probability-updater.ts - standings-sync/index.ts - sports-data-sync.server.ts - server/socket.ts Typecheck errors reduced from 365 to 0. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com> * migration: rename per-window tables to season_* prefix * fix(tests): update mock query keys after participants table rename Change mock db.query.participants to db.query.seasonParticipants in test files to match the schema rename from commit 66145a9. This fixes "Cannot read properties of undefined (reading 'findFirst'/'findMany')" errors that occurred when production code queries db.query.seasonParticipants but test mocks only defined the old participants key. Files updated: - app/services/simulations/__tests__/world-cup-simulator.test.ts - app/routes/api/__tests__/draft.force-manual-pick.test.ts - app/routes/api/__tests__/draft.force-manual-pick.timer-mode.test.ts - app/routes/api/__tests__/draft.make-pick.timer-mode.test.ts - server/__tests__/timer-autodraft.test.ts - app/models/__tests__/team-score-events.test.ts Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com> * fix(tests): update remaining mock paths and keys after schema rename * fix(tests): final two mock stragglers after schema rename - draft-pick.test.ts: assertion on db.query.participantQualifyingTotals - process-match-result.test.ts: mock key participants → seasonParticipants Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com> * chore: add post-phase1a baseline capture (temp, for diff verification) * chore: capture pre-migration baselines * chore: remove post-phase1a capture helper after verification * schema: add canonical tournament & participant tables Adds tournaments, participants (canonical), tournament_results, and participant_surface_elos (canonical). Adds nullable tournament_id to scoring_events and nullable participant_id to season_participants. Phase 1b of canonical tournament layer migration. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com> * feat(models): add canonical tournament, participant, result, surface-elo models Adds CRUD modules for the canonical tables created in commit 775b905. Each module mirrors existing app/models conventions (database() from ~/database/context, schema from ~/database/schema, mock-based tests). Key implementation notes: - participant.ts exports use "Canonical" prefix (CanonicalParticipant, createCanonicalParticipant, etc.) to avoid collision with existing season-participant.ts exports - All four models include comprehensive unit tests following the audit-log.test.ts pattern - Tests use mocked db responses (no real database access) - Upsert functions use onConflictDoUpdate for appropriate unique constraints Part of Phase 1b of canonical tournament layer migration. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com> * migration: create canonical tables, add nullable FKs * scripts: add extractTournamentIdentity helper for backfill Pure function that derives canonical (name, year) identity from a scoring_events row, stripping trailing 4-digit years from the name or falling back to eventDate. Used by the Phase 2 backfill to group per-window events into canonical tournaments. * scripts: add backfill orchestrator for canonical layer Populates canonical tournaments, participants, tournament_results, and participant_surface_elos from per-window data for qualifying-points sports. Skips already-linked rows, is idempotent, and supports dry-run mode. Critical invariants enforced by the implementation: - qualifying_points_awarded is never copied to tournament_results - season_participant_qualifying_totals is never touched - conflicting surface-Elo values between windows raise a loud error (recorded in report.errors) rather than overwriting * scripts: add backfill CLI with dry-run default Wires backfill-canonical-layer.ts to a CLI entry point exposed as `npm run backfill:canonical`. Defaults to --dry-run; requires --apply to actually write. Supports --sport=<uuid> to limit to a single sport. Exits 2 if the backfill reports errors (e.g., surface-Elo conflicts). * fix(backfill-cli): wrap runBackfill in DatabaseContext.run The orchestrator uses database() from ~/database/context, which requires AsyncLocalStorage to be populated. Wrap the CLI invocation with DatabaseContext.run(db, ...) using server/db's cached connection pool. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com> * fix(backfill-cli): exit 0 on success so pg pool doesn't block The cached postgres connection pool keeps the Node event loop open after main() returns. Explicit process.exit(0) on success mirrors the pattern in scripts/capture-baseline.ts. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com> --------- Co-authored-by: Chris Parsons <chrisp@extrahop.com> Co-authored-by: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>	2026-05-01 20:13:18 -07:00
Chris Parsons	338979e0a8	Add FIFA World Cup 2026 support with group stage display and Monte Carlo simulator (#242) ... * Add FIFA World Cup 2026 support with group stage display and Monte Carlo simulator, fixes #127 - New `groupStageMatches` table for recording group play results (W/D/L, scores, matchday, schedule) - `computeGroupStandings()` model function: pts → GD → GF → name tiebreaker ordering - `GroupStageStandings` component showing all 12 groups with standings table and manager column - Admin bracket UI: group match score entry, per-group standings, "Recalculate Floors" action - `WorldCupSimulator`: 50k Monte Carlo covering group stage + best-8 3rd-place + knockout + 3rd place game - Fuzzy name matching for national team Elo lookup (exact → substring → word-overlap), warns on miss - Partial group completion: completed matches replayed with real scores, remaining matches simulated - Elo priority: admin-entered sourceElo > futures odds converted to Elo > hardcoded national team ratings - `fifa_48` bracket template: added Third Place Game round with `loserFeedsInto` on Semifinals - Scoring rules: distinct 3rd/4th place for `fifa_48` (not averaged), QF losers share 5th–8th equally - Floor scoring: SF participants guaranteed 4th (provisional), finalized after 3rd place game - `recalculate-floors` admin action deletes and replays all results from scratch (fixes stale guard bug) - Unique index on `(tournamentGroupId, participant1Id, participant2Id)` to prevent duplicate pairings - Batch `findMatchesByGroupIds()` replacing N sequential queries in the sport season loader - League home mini-standings now shows `actualPoints` (includes floor) instead of `totalPoints` only - Elo ratings admin page supports World Cup (same bulk-import flow as snooker) Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com> * Fix TypeScript errors: update GroupStandingData type to use findMatchesByGroupIds Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com> * Increase Node heap to 4GB for unit tests in CI to prevent OOM Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com> * Fix OOM in CI: make WorldCupSimulator simulation count configurable for tests Tests now pass numSimulations=500 instead of the production default of 50,000. Six simulator tests × 50k iterations each was exhausting the 4GB heap on GitHub Actions runners. Also reduce simGroupMatch stat tests from 50k to 5k iterations. Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com> --------- Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>	2026-03-29 10:27:47 -07:00