NHL: NHLSimulator now checks for a populated playoff_game bracket before
falling back to season-projection mode. When a bracket exists (e.g. via
simple_16 template), it simulates the actual bracket structure, respecting
completed matches and using ELO+odds blending for the rest — matching the
pattern used by Snooker, NBA, and UCL simulators.
MLB: MLBSimulator now reads sourceElo from participantExpectedValues and
converts it to an effective RDif (via eloToRDif), overriding the hardcoded
TEAMS_DATA.rdif when present. This wires up the expected-wins admin form
(which saves sourceElo) to the simulation engine.
https://claude.ai/code/session_01139GJVg2gqgDjcUzqhnBNn
Fixes#227
- Replace hardcoded Elo ratings with 2026 FanGraphs Depth Charts projected
run differential (RDif) for all 30 teams
- Replace Elo formula with Bill James log5 using RDif → win rate conversion
- Restore p_div/p_wc from FanGraphs playoff odds (divTitle/wcTitle) for
seeding draws — previously these were incorrectly derived from raw win
rates, which gave the Dodgers only ~24% division win probability instead
of the correct ~90%
- Add RDIF_DIVISOR constant to compress team strengths toward .500 for
playoff parity; set to 8000 (Dodgers +137 → ~51.7% per-game win rate)
- Fix minimum team check: < 5 → < 6 (need 3 div winners + 3 wild cards)
- Fix Colorado Rockies p_div 0.000 → 0.001 for consistency
- Fix stale comments throughout; update tests
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* Add MLB playoff simulator with AL/NL division standings, fixes#121
- New `mlb-simulator.ts`: 50k Monte Carlo sim drawing division winners
(weighted by p_div) and 3 WC teams per league, then simulating
WC best-of-3 → DS best-of-5 → LCS best-of-7 → World Series.
Elo parity factor 350; blends Vegas odds 30/70 when sourceOdds available.
- New `standings-sync/mlb.ts`: adapter for free statsapi.mlb.com API,
mapping AL/NL conferences, division ranks, streaks, home/away/L10 splits.
- New `mlb-divisions` display mode in RegularSeasonStandings: shows 1 division
winner per division section + Wild Card section with 3-spot playoff line,
headings read "AL/NL League" instead of "Conference".
- Refactored buildNhlSections/buildMlbSections into shared buildDivisionSections
(divisionSpots + wcSpots params); conferenceLabel now flows through group
objects rather than being derived from displayMode in the render.
- DB migration 0062 adds `mlb_bracket` to simulator_type enum.
- 37 new tests across simulator, adapter, and component.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* Fix flaky tennis simulator test: increase trials and lower threshold
500 trials with a ~3–5% expected win rate had enough variance to
occasionally land below the 0.03 threshold (~2% failure rate).
Bumping to 2000 trials reduces the std dev by 2x; lowering the
threshold to 0.02 keeps the assertion meaningful (still well above
random 0.78%) while eliminating the flakiness.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
