4 commits

Author	SHA1	Message	Date
Chris Parsons	c0f674f648	Fix darts simulator timeout and world-cup bracket edge case ... - Add numSimulations constructor param to DartsSimulator (same pattern as WorldCupSimulator); drop default from 50k→10k; update manifest to match - Pass 200 iterations in the slow darts column-sum test to prevent CI timeout - Fix world-cup "SF losers" test to use 48 participants — with only 8, the R32 pool has 6 teams and SF never runs, leaving all placement counts at 0 and normalization producing probFirst=probThird=1 for one team - Add manifest iterations: 10_000 override for darts_bracket Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>	2026-05-31 10:34:47 -07:00
Chris Parsons	2848231235	Canonical tournament layer: schema + backfill (1/2) (#365) ... * refactor(schema): rename per-window tables to season_* prefix Renames participants, participant_expected_values, participant_qualifying_totals, participant_results, participant_surface_elos to season_* prefixed names. Renames event_results.participant_id to season_participant_id. Phase 1a of canonical tournament layer migration. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com> * refactor: rename participant.ts model file to season-participant.ts Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com> * refactor(models): update model layer to use renamed schema exports Updated all model files to use the renamed schema exports from Task 1: - participants → seasonParticipants - participantExpectedValues → seasonParticipantExpectedValues - participantQualifyingTotals → seasonParticipantQualifyingTotals - participantResults → seasonParticipantResults - participantSurfaceElos → seasonParticipantSurfaceElos - eventResults.participantId → eventResults.seasonParticipantId - db.query relation accessors updated - Relation field .participant → .seasonParticipant where applicable - Import paths updated: ./participant → ./season-participant Files updated (14 model files + 3 test files): - draft-pick.ts - draft-utils.ts - event-result.ts - group-stage-match.ts - participant-result.ts - qualifying-points.ts - scoring-calculator.ts - scoring-event.ts - sports-season.ts - surface-elo.ts - team-score-events.ts - cs2-major-stage.ts - golf-skills.ts - participant-expected-value.ts - __tests__/sports-season.clone.test.ts - __tests__/auto-pick.test.ts - __tests__/executeAutoPick.timer.test.ts Typecheck errors decreased: 779 → 499 (280 fewer) All model file errors related to renamed schemas resolved. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com> * refactor(routes): update route layer to use renamed schema exports - Update model import from ~/models/participant to ~/models/season-participant - Rename schema.participants to schema.seasonParticipants - Rename schema.participantResults to schema.seasonParticipantResults - Rename db.query.participants to db.query.seasonParticipants - Update 9 route files and 1 test file Affected files: - admin.sports-seasons.$id.events.$eventId.bracket.server.ts - admin.sports-seasons.$id.participants.tsx - api/draft.force-manual-pick.ts - api/draft.make-pick.ts - api/draft.replace-pick.ts - api/seasons.$seasonId.draft.ts - leagues/$leagueId.draft-board.$seasonId.tsx - leagues/$leagueId.sports-seasons.$sportsSeasonId.server.ts - admin/__tests__/sports-seasons-participants.test.ts Error count reduced from 499 to 453 (46 errors fixed). Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com> * refactor(routes): update route files for schema rename Update route imports from ~/models/participant to ~/models/season-participant and fix references to .participant/.participantId on event results to use .seasonParticipant/.seasonParticipantId after schema rename. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com> * refactor(services): update simulators and services for renamed schema Update all simulators, services, and server files to use renamed schema tables: - participants → seasonParticipants - participantExpectedValues → seasonParticipantExpectedValues - participantResults → seasonParticipantResults - eventResults.participantId → eventResults.seasonParticipantId Files updated: - 20 sport simulators (NBA, NHL, NFL, MLB, etc.) - probability-updater.ts - standings-sync/index.ts - sports-data-sync.server.ts - server/socket.ts Typecheck errors reduced from 365 to 0. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com> * migration: rename per-window tables to season_* prefix * fix(tests): update mock query keys after participants table rename Change mock db.query.participants to db.query.seasonParticipants in test files to match the schema rename from commit 66145a9. This fixes "Cannot read properties of undefined (reading 'findFirst'/'findMany')" errors that occurred when production code queries db.query.seasonParticipants but test mocks only defined the old participants key. Files updated: - app/services/simulations/__tests__/world-cup-simulator.test.ts - app/routes/api/__tests__/draft.force-manual-pick.test.ts - app/routes/api/__tests__/draft.force-manual-pick.timer-mode.test.ts - app/routes/api/__tests__/draft.make-pick.timer-mode.test.ts - server/__tests__/timer-autodraft.test.ts - app/models/__tests__/team-score-events.test.ts Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com> * fix(tests): update remaining mock paths and keys after schema rename * fix(tests): final two mock stragglers after schema rename - draft-pick.test.ts: assertion on db.query.participantQualifyingTotals - process-match-result.test.ts: mock key participants → seasonParticipants Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com> * chore: add post-phase1a baseline capture (temp, for diff verification) * chore: capture pre-migration baselines * chore: remove post-phase1a capture helper after verification * schema: add canonical tournament & participant tables Adds tournaments, participants (canonical), tournament_results, and participant_surface_elos (canonical). Adds nullable tournament_id to scoring_events and nullable participant_id to season_participants. Phase 1b of canonical tournament layer migration. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com> * feat(models): add canonical tournament, participant, result, surface-elo models Adds CRUD modules for the canonical tables created in commit 775b905. Each module mirrors existing app/models conventions (database() from ~/database/context, schema from ~/database/schema, mock-based tests). Key implementation notes: - participant.ts exports use "Canonical" prefix (CanonicalParticipant, createCanonicalParticipant, etc.) to avoid collision with existing season-participant.ts exports - All four models include comprehensive unit tests following the audit-log.test.ts pattern - Tests use mocked db responses (no real database access) - Upsert functions use onConflictDoUpdate for appropriate unique constraints Part of Phase 1b of canonical tournament layer migration. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com> * migration: create canonical tables, add nullable FKs * scripts: add extractTournamentIdentity helper for backfill Pure function that derives canonical (name, year) identity from a scoring_events row, stripping trailing 4-digit years from the name or falling back to eventDate. Used by the Phase 2 backfill to group per-window events into canonical tournaments. * scripts: add backfill orchestrator for canonical layer Populates canonical tournaments, participants, tournament_results, and participant_surface_elos from per-window data for qualifying-points sports. Skips already-linked rows, is idempotent, and supports dry-run mode. Critical invariants enforced by the implementation: - qualifying_points_awarded is never copied to tournament_results - season_participant_qualifying_totals is never touched - conflicting surface-Elo values between windows raise a loud error (recorded in report.errors) rather than overwriting * scripts: add backfill CLI with dry-run default Wires backfill-canonical-layer.ts to a CLI entry point exposed as `npm run backfill:canonical`. Defaults to --dry-run; requires --apply to actually write. Supports --sport=<uuid> to limit to a single sport. Exits 2 if the backfill reports errors (e.g., surface-Elo conflicts). * fix(backfill-cli): wrap runBackfill in DatabaseContext.run The orchestrator uses database() from ~/database/context, which requires AsyncLocalStorage to be populated. Wrap the CLI invocation with DatabaseContext.run(db, ...) using server/db's cached connection pool. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com> * fix(backfill-cli): exit 0 on success so pg pool doesn't block The cached postgres connection pool keeps the Node event loop open after main() returns. Explicit process.exit(0) on success mirrors the pattern in scripts/capture-baseline.ts. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com> --------- Co-authored-by: Chris Parsons <chrisp@extrahop.com> Co-authored-by: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>	2026-05-01 20:13:18 -07:00
Chris Parsons	a6bb1330e6	Fix darts simulator: bracket bug, ELO calibration, fallback Elo (#284) ... * fix: lower darts ELO_DIVISOR to 400 and fallback Elo to 1400 ELO_DIVISOR 500 → 400: elite darts is more skill-dominated than the previous setting implied. A 400-point gap now gives ~78% per-set win probability (vs ~73% before). fallbackElo 1600 → 1400: unseeded PDC World Championship entrants (regional qualifiers, Q-School players) are materially weaker than seeded tour professionals. 1400 better reflects that gap. Combined effect: a dominant player (e.g. 2000 Elo vs 1400-1600 field) now produces EV ≈ 65 instead of ≈ 30, which better matches expectations for a top-ranked player in a 128-player bracket. Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com> * fix: lower darts ELO_DIVISOR to 200 for realistic EV distribution With the actual PDC field (top players clustered 1800–1970 Elo, Littler at ~2080), ELO_DIVISOR=400 made the gap between world #1 and the top 8 too soft — EV for Littler came out ~37 instead of the expected 65–70. ELO_DIVISOR=200 calibrates correctly for this field: a 100-pt gap now gives ~62% per-set win probability (vs ~56% at 400), sharply rewarding the best players while still allowing upsets. Littler at 2084 produces EV ≈ 65–70 against the real PDC tour roster. Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com> * fix: seed darts bracket by Elo instead of world ranking World ranking (PDC Order of Merit) is prize-money-based and can diverge from current skill — e.g. Kevin Doets (1818 Elo) was ranked 35th while Joe Cullen (1667 Elo) held the 32nd seed. Seeding the weaker player and leaving the stronger one unseeded contradicts the Elo-based match model. Seeding by Elo descending ensures the 32 strongest players (by the same metric used to compute match probabilities) get protected bracket positions. Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com> * revert: restore world-ranking-based seeding for darts bracket Seeding should follow the PDC Order of Merit (world ranking), not Elo. Reverts the previous Elo-seeding commit. Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com> * fix: interleave seeded and unseeded R1 pairs in darts bracket Previously, all 32 seeded-vs-unseeded matches were added to r1Pairs first (indices 0–31) and all 32 unseeded-vs-unseeded matches last (indices 32–63). Since R2 pairs adjacent R1 winners, this created two completely separate sub-brackets that only converged at the Final: - Seeded sub-bracket: top players eliminating each other early - Unseeded sub-bracket: high-Elo unseeded players (e.g. Doets 1818, Zonneveld 1806) steamrolling weak opponents and making the Final ~20% of the time Fix: interleave each seeded match with its adjacent unseeded-vs-unseeded match. Seeded pair i is at r1Pairs[2i], unseeded pair i is at r1Pairs[2i+1]. From R2 onwards, winners from seeded and unseeded regions now merge correctly as in a real single-elimination bracket. Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com> --------- Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>	2026-04-09 00:47:47 -04:00
Chris Parsons	8c3663e01b	Add PDC World Darts Championship simulator with Elo-based bracket (#248) ... Fixes #123 * Add PDC World Darts Championship simulator (128-player bracket) - New DartsSimulator: 128-player single-elimination, 7 rounds with PDC-accurate best-of-sets formats (bo3/bo5/bo5/bo7/bo7/bo11/bo13). ELO_DIVISOR=500 via set-level Bernoulli model. Two simulation paths: Path A (bracket drawn) simulates from actual DB matches; Path B (pre-bracket) seeds top 32 by world ranking in fixed positions and randomly draws the remaining 96 per simulation run (50,000 iterations). - darts_bracket added to simulatorTypeEnum and simulator registry. - world_ranking nullable integer column added to participant_expected_values (migration 0067); batchSaveSourceElos now accepts and persists it. - Admin route /admin/sports-seasons/:id/darts-elo: bulk import with format "Player Name, 2099, 1" (name, Elo, optional world ranking), fuzzy name matching, auto-runs simulation and updates EV/snapshots on save. - DARTS_128 bracket template added (scoring starts at Quarterfinals). - 30 unit tests: math helpers, bracket seeding structure, Path A/B integration. https://claude.ai/code/session_01WZ6FjMmC2eBeZ1564M9Ruz * Review fixes: pre-compute hot-loop invariants, import normalizeName - Pre-compute seededSlots and getSeededMatchOrder(32) before the 50k simulation loop — was being recomputed every iteration - Pad unseeded pool to 96 once before the loop instead of inside it - Inline bracket-building in the hot loop using pre-computed seededSlots; removes the per-iteration call to buildR1Bracket/getSeededMatchOrder - Remove dead SEEDED_R1_PAIRS constant (was never referenced) - Import normalizeName from ~/lib/fuzzy-match instead of redefining it locally https://claude.ai/code/session_01WZ6FjMmC2eBeZ1564M9Ruz * Fix lint failures: unused vars, eqeqeq, toSorted - Remove unused seededSet/unseededSet variables in test - Replace != null with !== null && !== undefined (eqeqeq rule) - Replace .sort() with .toSorted() in simulator and route (unicorn/no-array-sort) https://claude.ai/code/session_01WZ6FjMmC2eBeZ1564M9Ruz * Fix TS2552: restore seededSet declaration removed during lint fix https://claude.ai/code/session_01WZ6FjMmC2eBeZ1564M9Ruz --------- Co-authored-by: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>	2026-03-31 15:37:28 -07:00