Fix darts simulator timeout and world-cup bracket edge case

- Add numSimulations constructor param to DartsSimulator (same pattern as
  WorldCupSimulator); drop default from 50k→10k; update manifest to match
- Pass 200 iterations in the slow darts column-sum test to prevent CI timeout
- Fix world-cup "SF losers" test to use 48 participants — with only 8,
  the R32 pool has 6 teams and SF never runs, leaving all placement counts
  at 0 and normalization producing probFirst=probThird=1 for one team
- Add manifest iterations: 10_000 override for darts_bracket

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

app/services/simulations/__tests__/darts-simulator.test.ts

@@ -325,7 +325,7 @@ describe("DartsSimulator.simulate() — Path A (bracket populated)", () => {
   it("each probability column sums to 1.0 across all 128 participants", async () => {
     mockDb.query.playoffMatches.findMany.mockResolvedValue(makeFullBracket());
 
-    const sim = new DartsSimulator();
+    const sim = new DartsSimulator(200);
     const results = await sim.simulate("season-1");
 
     const keys = [

app/services/simulations/__tests__/world-cup-simulator.test.ts

@@ -156,8 +156,7 @@ describe("WorldCupSimulator", () => {
   });
 
   it("SF losers land in 3rd or 4th, never 1st or 2nd", async () => {
-    // Set up 8 participants (small bracket, 2 groups of 4)
-    const participants = makeParticipants(8);
+    const participants = makeParticipants(48);
     mockDb.query.seasonParticipants.findMany.mockResolvedValue(participants);
     mockDb.query.scoringEvents.findFirst.mockResolvedValue(null);
     mockDb.query.tournamentGroups.findMany.mockResolvedValue([]);

app/services/simulations/darts-simulator.ts

@@ -51,7 +51,7 @@ import type { Simulator, SimulationResult } from "./types";
 
 // ─── Simulation parameters ────────────────────────────────────────────────────
 
-const NUM_SIMULATIONS = 50000;
+
 
 /**
  * Controls how much Elo gaps affect per-set win probability.
@@ -198,6 +198,12 @@ function shuffle<T>(arr: T[]): T[] {
 // ─── Simulator ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
 
 export class DartsSimulator implements Simulator {
+  private readonly numSimulations: number;
+
+  constructor(numSimulations = 10_000) {
+    this.numSimulations = numSimulations;
+  }
+
   async simulate(sportsSeasonId: string): Promise<SimulationResult[]> {
     const db = database();
 
@@ -325,7 +331,7 @@ export class DartsSimulator implements Simulator {
     const sfLoserCounts   = new Map<string, number>(participantIds.map((id) => [id, 0]));
     const qfLoserCounts   = new Map<string, number>(participantIds.map((id) => [id, 0]));
 
-    for (let s = 0; s < NUM_SIMULATIONS; s++) {
+    for (let s = 0; s < this.numSimulations; s++) {
       // R1 (64 matches)
       const r1Winners: string[] = [];
       for (let i = 1; i <= 64; i++) {
@@ -433,7 +439,7 @@ export class DartsSimulator implements Simulator {
       finalistCounts.set(finalist, (finalistCounts.get(finalist) ?? 0) + 1);
     }
 
-    return buildResults(participantIds, NUM_SIMULATIONS, {
+    return buildResults(participantIds, this.numSimulations, {
       championCounts,
       finalistCounts,
       sfLoserCounts,
@@ -514,7 +520,7 @@ export class DartsSimulator implements Simulator {
       unseededPool.push(`__bye_${unseededPool.length}`);
     }
 
-    for (let s = 0; s < NUM_SIMULATIONS; s++) {
+    for (let s = 0; s < this.numSimulations; s++) {
       // Draw: shuffle the unseeded pool — seeded positions are pre-computed.
       const drawnUnseeded = shuffle([...unseededPool]);
 
@@ -582,7 +588,7 @@ export class DartsSimulator implements Simulator {
       finalistCounts.set(finalist, (finalistCounts.get(finalist) ?? 0) + 1);
     }
 
-    return buildResults(allParticipantIds, NUM_SIMULATIONS, {
+    return buildResults(allParticipantIds, this.numSimulations, {
       championCounts,
       finalistCounts,
       sfLoserCounts,

app/services/simulations/manifest.ts

@@ -163,7 +163,7 @@ const PROFILES: Record<SimulatorType, Omit<SimulatorManifestProfile, "simulatorT
     setupSections: ["participants", "eloRatings", "futuresOdds", "events"],
   },
   darts_bracket: {
-    defaultConfig: { ...BASE_CONFIG, eloDivisor: 400 },
+    defaultConfig: { ...BASE_CONFIG, iterations: 10_000, eloDivisor: 400 },
     requiredInputs: ["sourceElo", "worldRanking"],
     optionalInputs: ["seed"],
     setupSections: ["participants", "eloRatings", "rankings"],