Make the futures-vs-Elo relationship an explicit, configurable rule and fix
futures odds failing to override stored Elo.
Root causes addressed:
- resolveSourceElos/resolveRatings used a hardcoded precedence (direct Elo ->
projectedWins -> projectedTablePoints -> odds). The prior fix nulled sourceElo
on futures entry but not projections, which still outranked odds.
- The override relied on a destructive null-on-save hack that also wiped
manually entered Elo.
- Blended simulators buried their Elo/odds weight in module constants.
- Futures odds were not surfaced on the /admin/simulators inventory.
Changes:
- Add a configurable source policy: sourceEloPriority (ordered) and oddsWeight,
parsed/clamped in getSimulatorInputPolicy. resolveSourceElos/resolveRatings now
resolve each participant by the configured priority instead of a fixed order.
Futures-centric simulators (ncaam, ncaaw, world_cup, ncaa_football,
college_hockey) default to a futures-override priority.
- Drop the destructive nulling in batchSaveFuturesOddsForSimulator and
batchSaveSourceOdds; override is now governed by policy, preserving stored Elo.
- Thread an optional SimulationContext (oddsWeight) through the Simulator
interface so blended sims (UCL, World Cup, NCAA FB, MLB) read the blend weight
from the season policy; defaults preserve prior calibration when no context is
passed.
- Add a "Futures vs. Elo" strategy control and Odds Blend Weight input to the
Simulator Setup input-policy card, persisted via save-input-policy.
- Surface futures on /admin/simulators: a source badge and a Futures Odds quick
link; extend listSportsSeasonSimulatorSummaries with odds source info.
- Tests: configurable priority override (Elo/projections/rating), oddsWeight
parsing/clamping, prefersFuturesOdds, manifest defaults, an NCAA Football
context-blend behavioral test, and an updated non-destructive save test.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01QhNeB7gN6VKene7sdbBVQT
When an admin entered futures (preseason) odds for a season that already
had Elo ratings stored, the simulator kept using the old Elo and silently
ignored the new odds. This affected any Elo-based simulator (e.g. NHL).
Root cause: resolveSourceElos() ranks a direct sourceElo above the
sourceOdds -> convertFuturesToElo branch, but batchSaveFuturesOddsForSimulator()
only cleared the bracket-seeding `rating`/`ratingMethod` — never the stale
`sourceElo`/`sourceEloMethod`. A manually entered Elo (method "direct") is not
treated as generated, so it survived and short-circuited the resolver.
Fix:
- batchSaveFuturesOddsForSimulator now also nulls sourceElo and strips
sourceEloMethod (both the pre-update and upsert-conflict paths), so the
existing futures -> Elo conversion drives the run.
- resolveSourceElos' sourceOdds branch now guards for >= 2 participants
(mirroring resolveRatings), so a lone-odds season falls through to the
configured missing-Elo strategy instead of getting a flat ~1500.
- batchSaveSourceOdds clears the legacy EV sourceElo and marks source as
futures_odds so the elo-ratings page won't resurrect a stale rating.
Adds unit coverage for odds-derived Elo, the single-participant guard, the
post-clear regression, generated-vs-direct sourceElo suppression, and the
new clearing behavior in batchSaveFuturesOddsForSimulator.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01YNfUEd9RzD3zm84oLHBHUH
- Revert ncaaw-simulator to Barthag win probability formula; set
realistic rating bounds (ratingMin: 0.70, ratingMax: 0.97) so derived
ratings stay in the range where the formula behaves well
- Add batchSaveFuturesOddsForSimulator which clears all ratings (manual
and generated) before upserting sourceOdds, so futures odds always
drive the simulation rather than being silently overridden by existing
Barthag ratings from Simulator Setup
- Add clearSourceOddsForParticipants to zero out both tables for
participants excluded from a bulk import
- Add "Clear existing odds" checkbox to the bulk import card; applies
client-side on match and server-side on submit
- Fix missing sportsSeasonId filter in batchSaveFuturesOddsForSimulator
pre-clear UPDATE (could have wiped ratings across other seasons)
- Fix race condition: run batchSaveSourceOdds then
batchSaveFuturesOddsForSimulator sequentially so the simulator inputs
table always ends in the correct cleared state
- Fix Math.round in convertFuturesToElo collapsing Barthag-scale ratings
to 0 or 1; Elo callers already round after clamping
- Handle all-identical-odds edge case in convertFuturesToElo (assign
midpoint instead of throwing)
- Add missingRatingStrategy: worstKnownMinus to ncaaw_bracket manifest
so fallbackRatingDelta is live config, not dead
- Log warning in resolveRatings when only 1 participant has odds
- Reset clearExisting checkbox after applyMatches
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Introduces three new schema tables (simulator_profiles,
sports_season_simulator_configs, season_participant_simulator_inputs),
a central model layer (app/models/simulator.ts), and a single runner
entry point so every simulator run follows the same prepare → simulate
→ persist → snapshot → recalculate flow.
Key additions:
- manifest.ts: per-simulator display names, default configs, required/
optional inputs, derivable-input declarations, and setup sections
- input-policy.ts: resolves sourceElo from projectedWins,
projectedTablePoints, or sourceOdds; resolves ratings from sourceOdds;
supports block / fallbackElo / averageKnown / worstKnownMinus strategies
- runner.ts: single entry point for admin simulation runs; materialises
derived inputs, normalises result columns, zeroes omitted participants,
snapshots EVs, and recalculates linked fantasy standings
- /admin/simulators: inventory page with per-season readiness and bulk run
- /admin/sports-seasons/:id/simulator: per-season setup page with readiness
summary, input-policy editor, raw JSON config override, and CSV bulk input
- NCAAM/NCAAW simulators now read ratings from season_participant_simulator_inputs,
falling back to the hardcoded name-keyed maps while DB data is being populated
- Clone flow copies simulator config by default; volatile inputs (odds, Elo)
only copied when explicitly requested
Code-review fixes included in this commit:
- source field in compatibility bridge checked with !== null instead of !== undefined
- sourceEloRequirementLabel no longer appends "configured fallback" when the
participant is already excluded from all resolved sources
- Duplicate inline label maps in input-policy.ts replaced with simulatorInputLabel
- save-config preserves existing inputPolicy when the submitted JSON omits it
- Input table truncation label added (Showing 20 of N)
- CSV description notes values must not contain commas
- N+1 comment added to listSportsSeasonSimulatorSummaries
- assertRegistrySchemaDriftFree called in manifest tests
- Runner test suite added covering happy path, already-running guard,
readiness failure, empty results, and error recovery with status reset
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Commissioners can add Brackt to any league. Each team drafts one manager
from their own league; at season end, that manager's final overall fantasy
ranking earns placement points. Resolution fires automatically when all
other sports finalize.
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* refactor(schema): rename per-window tables to season_* prefix
Renames participants, participant_expected_values, participant_qualifying_totals,
participant_results, participant_surface_elos to season_* prefixed names.
Renames event_results.participant_id to season_participant_id.
Phase 1a of canonical tournament layer migration.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* refactor: rename participant.ts model file to season-participant.ts
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* refactor(models): update model layer to use renamed schema exports
Updated all model files to use the renamed schema exports from Task 1:
- participants → seasonParticipants
- participantExpectedValues → seasonParticipantExpectedValues
- participantQualifyingTotals → seasonParticipantQualifyingTotals
- participantResults → seasonParticipantResults
- participantSurfaceElos → seasonParticipantSurfaceElos
- eventResults.participantId → eventResults.seasonParticipantId
- db.query relation accessors updated
- Relation field .participant → .seasonParticipant where applicable
- Import paths updated: ./participant → ./season-participant
Files updated (14 model files + 3 test files):
- draft-pick.ts
- draft-utils.ts
- event-result.ts
- group-stage-match.ts
- participant-result.ts
- qualifying-points.ts
- scoring-calculator.ts
- scoring-event.ts
- sports-season.ts
- surface-elo.ts
- team-score-events.ts
- cs2-major-stage.ts
- golf-skills.ts
- participant-expected-value.ts
- __tests__/sports-season.clone.test.ts
- __tests__/auto-pick.test.ts
- __tests__/executeAutoPick.timer.test.ts
Typecheck errors decreased: 779 → 499 (280 fewer)
All model file errors related to renamed schemas resolved.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* refactor(routes): update route layer to use renamed schema exports
- Update model import from ~/models/participant to ~/models/season-participant
- Rename schema.participants to schema.seasonParticipants
- Rename schema.participantResults to schema.seasonParticipantResults
- Rename db.query.participants to db.query.seasonParticipants
- Update 9 route files and 1 test file
Affected files:
- admin.sports-seasons.$id.events.$eventId.bracket.server.ts
- admin.sports-seasons.$id.participants.tsx
- api/draft.force-manual-pick.ts
- api/draft.make-pick.ts
- api/draft.replace-pick.ts
- api/seasons.$seasonId.draft.ts
- leagues/$leagueId.draft-board.$seasonId.tsx
- leagues/$leagueId.sports-seasons.$sportsSeasonId.server.ts
- admin/__tests__/sports-seasons-participants.test.ts
Error count reduced from 499 to 453 (46 errors fixed).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* refactor(routes): update route files for schema rename
Update route imports from ~/models/participant to ~/models/season-participant
and fix references to .participant/.participantId on event results to use
.seasonParticipant/.seasonParticipantId after schema rename.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* refactor(services): update simulators and services for renamed schema
Update all simulators, services, and server files to use renamed schema tables:
- participants → seasonParticipants
- participantExpectedValues → seasonParticipantExpectedValues
- participantResults → seasonParticipantResults
- eventResults.participantId → eventResults.seasonParticipantId
Files updated:
- 20 sport simulators (NBA, NHL, NFL, MLB, etc.)
- probability-updater.ts
- standings-sync/index.ts
- sports-data-sync.server.ts
- server/socket.ts
Typecheck errors reduced from 365 to 0.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* migration: rename per-window tables to season_* prefix
* fix(tests): update mock query keys after participants table rename
Change mock db.query.participants to db.query.seasonParticipants in test
files to match the schema rename from commit 66145a9. This fixes
"Cannot read properties of undefined (reading 'findFirst'/'findMany')"
errors that occurred when production code queries db.query.seasonParticipants
but test mocks only defined the old participants key.
Files updated:
- app/services/simulations/__tests__/world-cup-simulator.test.ts
- app/routes/api/__tests__/draft.force-manual-pick.test.ts
- app/routes/api/__tests__/draft.force-manual-pick.timer-mode.test.ts
- app/routes/api/__tests__/draft.make-pick.timer-mode.test.ts
- server/__tests__/timer-autodraft.test.ts
- app/models/__tests__/team-score-events.test.ts
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* fix(tests): update remaining mock paths and keys after schema rename
* fix(tests): final two mock stragglers after schema rename
- draft-pick.test.ts: assertion on db.query.participantQualifyingTotals
- process-match-result.test.ts: mock key participants → seasonParticipants
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* chore: add post-phase1a baseline capture (temp, for diff verification)
* chore: capture pre-migration baselines
* chore: remove post-phase1a capture helper after verification
* schema: add canonical tournament & participant tables
Adds tournaments, participants (canonical), tournament_results, and
participant_surface_elos (canonical). Adds nullable tournament_id to
scoring_events and nullable participant_id to season_participants.
Phase 1b of canonical tournament layer migration.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* feat(models): add canonical tournament, participant, result, surface-elo models
Adds CRUD modules for the canonical tables created in commit 775b905.
Each module mirrors existing app/models conventions (database() from
~/database/context, schema from ~/database/schema, mock-based tests).
Key implementation notes:
- participant.ts exports use "Canonical" prefix (CanonicalParticipant,
createCanonicalParticipant, etc.) to avoid collision with existing
season-participant.ts exports
- All four models include comprehensive unit tests following the
audit-log.test.ts pattern
- Tests use mocked db responses (no real database access)
- Upsert functions use onConflictDoUpdate for appropriate unique constraints
Part of Phase 1b of canonical tournament layer migration.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* migration: create canonical tables, add nullable FKs
* scripts: add extractTournamentIdentity helper for backfill
Pure function that derives canonical (name, year) identity from a
scoring_events row, stripping trailing 4-digit years from the name or
falling back to eventDate. Used by the Phase 2 backfill to group
per-window events into canonical tournaments.
* scripts: add backfill orchestrator for canonical layer
Populates canonical tournaments, participants, tournament_results, and
participant_surface_elos from per-window data for qualifying-points
sports. Skips already-linked rows, is idempotent, and supports dry-run
mode.
Critical invariants enforced by the implementation:
- qualifying_points_awarded is never copied to tournament_results
- season_participant_qualifying_totals is never touched
- conflicting surface-Elo values between windows raise a loud error
(recorded in report.errors) rather than overwriting
* scripts: add backfill CLI with dry-run default
Wires backfill-canonical-layer.ts to a CLI entry point exposed as
`npm run backfill:canonical`. Defaults to --dry-run; requires --apply
to actually write. Supports --sport=<uuid> to limit to a single sport.
Exits 2 if the backfill reports errors (e.g., surface-Elo conflicts).
* fix(backfill-cli): wrap runBackfill in DatabaseContext.run
The orchestrator uses database() from ~/database/context, which requires
AsyncLocalStorage to be populated. Wrap the CLI invocation with
DatabaseContext.run(db, ...) using server/db's cached connection pool.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* fix(backfill-cli): exit 0 on success so pg pool doesn't block
The cached postgres connection pool keeps the Node event loop open after
main() returns. Explicit process.exit(0) on success mirrors the pattern
in scripts/capture-baseline.ts.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
---------
Co-authored-by: Chris Parsons <chrisp@extrahop.com>
Co-authored-by: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* fix: address VORP code review issues
- Switch admin EV form to batchUpsertParticipantEVs to avoid N×N
concurrent UPDATE storm (was calling upsertParticipantEV per
participant, each triggering a full syncVorpForSeason)
- deleteParticipantEV now resets vorpValue to "0" and calls
syncVorpForSeason so remaining participants' ranks stay correct
- syncVorpForSeason issues a single bulk CASE UPDATE instead of
N individual UPDATE statements
- Add doc warning on recalculateEV that callers must sync VORP manually
- Extract REPLACEMENT_LEVEL_START/END_IDX constants; clarify comment
that 12-14 is a fixed product decision, not derived from league size
- Include vorpValue in draft room participant select projection
- Update drizzle-orm mock to support sql.join; update test assertions
to reflect single bulk-update call
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* fix: resolve lint errors (toSorted, unused var)
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
---------
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Adds syncVorpForSeason to recalculate and persist VORP for all participants
in a season after any EV change. Wires it into upsertParticipantEV,
batchUpsertParticipantEVs, and recalculateAllEVsForSeason so VORP stays
current whenever EVs are updated.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Fixes#123
* Add PDC World Darts Championship simulator (128-player bracket)
- New DartsSimulator: 128-player single-elimination, 7 rounds with
PDC-accurate best-of-sets formats (bo3/bo5/bo5/bo7/bo7/bo11/bo13).
ELO_DIVISOR=500 via set-level Bernoulli model. Two simulation paths:
Path A (bracket drawn) simulates from actual DB matches; Path B
(pre-bracket) seeds top 32 by world ranking in fixed positions and
randomly draws the remaining 96 per simulation run (50,000 iterations).
- darts_bracket added to simulatorTypeEnum and simulator registry.
- world_ranking nullable integer column added to participant_expected_values
(migration 0067); batchSaveSourceElos now accepts and persists it.
- Admin route /admin/sports-seasons/:id/darts-elo: bulk import with format
"Player Name, 2099, 1" (name, Elo, optional world ranking), fuzzy name
matching, auto-runs simulation and updates EV/snapshots on save.
- DARTS_128 bracket template added (scoring starts at Quarterfinals).
- 30 unit tests: math helpers, bracket seeding structure, Path A/B integration.
https://claude.ai/code/session_01WZ6FjMmC2eBeZ1564M9Ruz
* Review fixes: pre-compute hot-loop invariants, import normalizeName
- Pre-compute seededSlots and getSeededMatchOrder(32) before the 50k
simulation loop — was being recomputed every iteration
- Pad unseeded pool to 96 once before the loop instead of inside it
- Inline bracket-building in the hot loop using pre-computed seededSlots;
removes the per-iteration call to buildR1Bracket/getSeededMatchOrder
- Remove dead SEEDED_R1_PAIRS constant (was never referenced)
- Import normalizeName from ~/lib/fuzzy-match instead of redefining it locally
https://claude.ai/code/session_01WZ6FjMmC2eBeZ1564M9Ruz
* Fix lint failures: unused vars, eqeqeq, toSorted
- Remove unused seededSet/unseededSet variables in test
- Replace != null with !== null && !== undefined (eqeqeq rule)
- Replace .sort() with .toSorted() in simulator and route (unicorn/no-array-sort)
https://claude.ai/code/session_01WZ6FjMmC2eBeZ1564M9Ruz
* Fix TS2552: restore seededSet declaration removed during lint fix
https://claude.ai/code/session_01WZ6FjMmC2eBeZ1564M9Ruz
---------
Co-authored-by: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
- SnookerSimulator: Monte Carlo simulation of the 32-player World
Championship bracket using per-frame Bernoulli win probabilities
derived from Elo ratings (ELO_DIVISOR=700). Two paths: bracket-
populated (respects completed matches) and pre-bracket (simulates
qualifying, then seeds full draw).
- Admin route /sports-seasons/:id/elo-ratings: bulk-import and per-
player Elo entry with fuzzy name matching; saves ratings and auto-
runs the simulation in one action.
- schema: add snooker_bracket simulator type, source_elo column on
participant_expected_values, unique index on (participant_id,
sports_season_id).
- Fix batchSaveSourceElos to use INSERT ... ON CONFLICT DO UPDATE
instead of N+1 SELECT+UPDATE loop.
- Fix existingElos returned as plain Record (Map doesn't survive JSON
serialization through useLoaderData).
- Fix "How It Works" formula to show correct divisor (700, not 400).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* feat: EV simulation framework with F1 Monte Carlo simulator
- Add EV snapshot tables (participant_ev_snapshots, team_ev_snapshots) and simulation_status column on sports seasons
- Add ev-snapshot model with upsert and history query functions
- Add simulator framework: types, bracket/F1/golf simulators, registry
- F1 simulator: vig-removed ICM weighted draw (pre-season) + race-by-race Monte Carlo from current standings (in-season); per-position column normalization to prevent floating-point EV drift
- Add admin simulate route and Run Simulation button on sports season page
- Rework futures-odds admin page to save odds then run simulation in one action
- Remove recalculate-probabilities route (superseded by simulate route)
- Remove EV trend chart panel and associated DB queries
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* feat: map simulators to sports via simulatorType field
Adds a `simulator_type` enum column to the `sports` table so each sport
can be assigned a specific simulation algorithm rather than deriving it
from the sports season's scoring pattern.
- Add `simulatorTypeEnum` (f1_standings, indycar_standings,
golf_qualifying_points, playoff_bracket) + `simulatorType` nullable
column on `sports` table; migration 0037
- Rewrite simulator registry to key off `SimulatorType` instead of
`ScoringPattern`; indycar_standings shares F1Simulator for now
- `findSportsSeasonById` now returns `SportsSeasonWithSport` so callers
have typed access to `sport.simulatorType`
- Simulate and futures-odds actions read `sport.simulatorType`; guard
fires before setting `simulationStatus: running`
- Admin sport edit page gains a Simulator Type dropdown
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
---------
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* Include participant EV/futures data in data sync export/import
The export now includes the full participantExpectedValues records
(placement probabilities, source, sourceOdds) alongside participants.
On import, EV records are upserted in merge mode and created fresh in
replace mode (cascade handles cleanup). Backward-compatible with older
exports that lack the participantExpectedValues field.
https://claude.ai/code/session_01TVzuuDR7jPtmihaXTrsX7B
* Address all data-sync code review findings
- Wrap importSportsDataFromJSON in a db.transaction() so any mid-import
failure rolls back cleanly instead of leaving partial data
- Add zod validation of imported JSON before any DB writes, giving a
clear error on malformed/incompatible files
- Fix N+1 queries: build participantIdMap during participant import so
the EV and results sections resolve IDs from memory, not extra queries
- Fix merge mode silently skipping existing participants — now updates
shortName, externalId, and expectedValue
- Add participantResults to export/import (was deleted in replace mode
but never exported, so results were permanently lost)
- Restore calculatedAt timestamp on EV import instead of defaulting to
now(); stored as ISO string in the export for portability
- Document that onDelete:cascade covers participantExpectedValues and
participantResults when participants is deleted; remove the now-
redundant explicit participantResults delete from replace mode
- Bump export version to 1.1; old v1.0 files still import cleanly since
participantExpectedValues, participantResults, and calculatedAt are
all optional in the zod schema
- Collapse all six DB fetches in exportSportsDataToJSON into one
Promise.all for parallel execution
- Add countAllParticipants() and countAllParticipantEVs() model funcs
- Show Participants and EV Records counts on the dashboard stat cards
- Replace raw DOM form creation/submit in handleImport with useFetcher,
giving proper loading state, no full-page reload, and type-safe data
- Remove dead export intent handler from the action function
https://claude.ai/code/session_01TVzuuDR7jPtmihaXTrsX7B
---------
Co-authored-by: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
* fix: remove probability sum validation and add batch save with total EV
- Remove the requirement that manual probabilities sum to 1.0, allowing
partial distributions (e.g. when a participant has <100% chance of top 8)
- Replace per-row save buttons with a single "Save All" button that submits
all participants at once
- Add a Total EV row at the bottom of the table summing all participant EVs
- Update action to batch process all participants from a single form submission
https://claude.ai/code/session_01WHRynBCcugSK7HHEmN6Yuy
* fix: validate participantIds server-side instead of trusting form input
Fetch participants from the DB in the action using the season ID from
the URL params, eliminating the untrusted participantIds hidden field.
Remove the now-unused hidden input from the frontend form.
https://claude.ai/code/session_01WHRynBCcugSK7HHEmN6Yuy
---------
Co-authored-by: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
* feat: sync odds-based EV to participants table for draft room ranking
When admin enters futures odds or manual probabilities, the calculated EV
is now synced from participantExpectedValues to participants.expectedValue.
This closes the gap where EVs were calculated but never reflected in the
draft room ranking. Also changes expectedValue from integer to decimal(10,2)
for better precision, and displays "—" for participants with no odds data.
https://claude.ai/code/session_01JWG2zg2EMzCn6RgEufPC1T
* fix: correct expectedValue type to string in participants route
Missed instance of `expectedValue: 0` (number) that failed typecheck
after schema change from integer to decimal.
https://claude.ai/code/session_01JWG2zg2EMzCn6RgEufPC1T
---------
Co-authored-by: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
- Added loader and action functions for managing expected values in sports seasons.
- Implemented UI for recalculating probabilities based on participant results.
- Created a service to update probabilities after results are finalized, including handling finished and unfinished participants.
- Developed tests for the probability updater service to ensure correct functionality.
- Introduced a preview feature to show potential changes before applying updates.
Implements Phase 5.2 of the EV system with Harville-Malmuth Independent Chip Model
for calculating participant placement probabilities from futures odds.
## Key Features
### ICM Probability Calculator
- Implements Harville-Malmuth method for distributing probabilities
- Converts American odds to championship probabilities
- Generates P(1st) through P(8th) for all participants
- Column-normalized: each placement sums to 100% across all teams
- Works with any number of participants (not limited to 8)
### Admin UI - Futures Odds Entry
- Enter American odds (e.g., +550, -200) for championship futures
- Live preview of ICM-calculated probability distributions
- Displays all 8 placement probabilities
- Persists odds for editing on subsequent visits
- Automatic probability normalization (removes bookmaker vig)
### Database Schema Updates
- Renamed participant_expected_values.season_id → sports_season_id
- Updated foreign key to reference sports_seasons instead of seasons
- Added source_odds field to store original futures odds
- Migration 0025: Column rename and FK update
- Migration 0026: Add source_odds field
### Model Layer
- participant-expected-value: CRUD operations for probability distributions
- Supports multiple probability sources (manual, futures_odds, elo_simulation)
- Automatic EV calculation based on league scoring rules
- Probability validation and normalization
### Service Layer
- icm-calculator: Harville-Malmuth probability distribution
- probability-engine: Odds conversion and Elo utilities (for future use)
- bracket-simulator: Monte Carlo simulation (for future hybrid approach)
- ev-calculator: Expected value computation from probabilities
## Technical Details
- Uses exponential decay favoring top positions for strong teams
- Preserves championship probability ordering in final distributions
- Row sums vary (strong teams ~100%, weak teams lower)
- All probabilities between 0-1, mathematically valid
- Comprehensive test suite: 97 tests passing
## Future Enhancements
- Hybrid approach: ICM pre-playoffs, bracket simulation during playoffs
- Integration with league-specific scoring rules
- Historical probability tracking for accuracy analysis
🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.com/claude-code)
Co-Authored-By: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
