Make the futures-vs-Elo relationship an explicit, configurable rule and fix
futures odds failing to override stored Elo.
Root causes addressed:
- resolveSourceElos/resolveRatings used a hardcoded precedence (direct Elo ->
projectedWins -> projectedTablePoints -> odds). The prior fix nulled sourceElo
on futures entry but not projections, which still outranked odds.
- The override relied on a destructive null-on-save hack that also wiped
manually entered Elo.
- Blended simulators buried their Elo/odds weight in module constants.
- Futures odds were not surfaced on the /admin/simulators inventory.
Changes:
- Add a configurable source policy: sourceEloPriority (ordered) and oddsWeight,
parsed/clamped in getSimulatorInputPolicy. resolveSourceElos/resolveRatings now
resolve each participant by the configured priority instead of a fixed order.
Futures-centric simulators (ncaam, ncaaw, world_cup, ncaa_football,
college_hockey) default to a futures-override priority.
- Drop the destructive nulling in batchSaveFuturesOddsForSimulator and
batchSaveSourceOdds; override is now governed by policy, preserving stored Elo.
- Thread an optional SimulationContext (oddsWeight) through the Simulator
interface so blended sims (UCL, World Cup, NCAA FB, MLB) read the blend weight
from the season policy; defaults preserve prior calibration when no context is
passed.
- Add a "Futures vs. Elo" strategy control and Odds Blend Weight input to the
Simulator Setup input-policy card, persisted via save-input-policy.
- Surface futures on /admin/simulators: a source badge and a Futures Odds quick
link; extend listSportsSeasonSimulatorSummaries with odds source info.
- Tests: configurable priority override (Elo/projections/rating), oddsWeight
parsing/clamping, prefersFuturesOdds, manifest defaults, an NCAA Football
context-blend behavioral test, and an updated non-destructive save test.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01QhNeB7gN6VKene7sdbBVQT
When an admin entered futures (preseason) odds for a season that already
had Elo ratings stored, the simulator kept using the old Elo and silently
ignored the new odds. This affected any Elo-based simulator (e.g. NHL).
Root cause: resolveSourceElos() ranks a direct sourceElo above the
sourceOdds -> convertFuturesToElo branch, but batchSaveFuturesOddsForSimulator()
only cleared the bracket-seeding `rating`/`ratingMethod` — never the stale
`sourceElo`/`sourceEloMethod`. A manually entered Elo (method "direct") is not
treated as generated, so it survived and short-circuited the resolver.
Fix:
- batchSaveFuturesOddsForSimulator now also nulls sourceElo and strips
sourceEloMethod (both the pre-update and upsert-conflict paths), so the
existing futures -> Elo conversion drives the run.
- resolveSourceElos' sourceOdds branch now guards for >= 2 participants
(mirroring resolveRatings), so a lone-odds season falls through to the
configured missing-Elo strategy instead of getting a flat ~1500.
- batchSaveSourceOdds clears the legacy EV sourceElo and marks source as
futures_odds so the elo-ratings page won't resurrect a stale rating.
Adds unit coverage for odds-derived Elo, the single-participant guard, the
post-clear regression, generated-vs-direct sourceElo suppression, and the
new clearing behavior in batchSaveFuturesOddsForSimulator.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01YNfUEd9RzD3zm84oLHBHUH
Introduces three new schema tables (simulator_profiles,
sports_season_simulator_configs, season_participant_simulator_inputs),
a central model layer (app/models/simulator.ts), and a single runner
entry point so every simulator run follows the same prepare → simulate
→ persist → snapshot → recalculate flow.
Key additions:
- manifest.ts: per-simulator display names, default configs, required/
optional inputs, derivable-input declarations, and setup sections
- input-policy.ts: resolves sourceElo from projectedWins,
projectedTablePoints, or sourceOdds; resolves ratings from sourceOdds;
supports block / fallbackElo / averageKnown / worstKnownMinus strategies
- runner.ts: single entry point for admin simulation runs; materialises
derived inputs, normalises result columns, zeroes omitted participants,
snapshots EVs, and recalculates linked fantasy standings
- /admin/simulators: inventory page with per-season readiness and bulk run
- /admin/sports-seasons/:id/simulator: per-season setup page with readiness
summary, input-policy editor, raw JSON config override, and CSV bulk input
- NCAAM/NCAAW simulators now read ratings from season_participant_simulator_inputs,
falling back to the hardcoded name-keyed maps while DB data is being populated
- Clone flow copies simulator config by default; volatile inputs (odds, Elo)
only copied when explicitly requested
Code-review fixes included in this commit:
- source field in compatibility bridge checked with !== null instead of !== undefined
- sourceEloRequirementLabel no longer appends "configured fallback" when the
participant is already excluded from all resolved sources
- Duplicate inline label maps in input-policy.ts replaced with simulatorInputLabel
- save-config preserves existing inputPolicy when the submitted JSON omits it
- Input table truncation label added (Showing 20 of N)
- CSV description notes values must not contain commas
- N+1 comment added to listSportsSeasonSimulatorSummaries
- assertRegistrySchemaDriftFree called in manifest tests
- Runner test suite added covering happy path, already-running guard,
readiness failure, empty results, and error recovery with status reset
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
