app/models/__tests__/futures-odds-simulator.test.ts

@@ -69,6 +69,15 @@ describe("batchUpsertParticipantSimulatorInputs", () => {
     expect(sourceEloSql).toContain("coalesce");
     const ratingSql = sqlToText(simulatorSet.rating).toLowerCase();
     expect(ratingSql).toContain("coalesce");
+
+    // Metadata must drop the per-column method flag whenever that column gets a
+    // fresh direct value, so a stale "generated" flag can't hide a newly entered
+    // Elo/rating. Blindly preserving metadata (e.g. COALESCE) would be the bug.
+    const metadataSql = sqlToText(simulatorSet.metadata).toLowerCase();
+    expect(metadataSql).toContain("sourceelomethod");
+    expect(metadataSql).toContain("ratingmethod");
+    expect(metadataSql).toContain("excluded.source_elo");
+    expect(metadataSql).toContain("excluded.rating");
   });
 
   it("is a no-op when given no inputs", async () => {

app/models/simulator.ts

@@ -353,7 +353,20 @@ export async function batchUpsertParticipantSimulatorInputs(
           projectedTablePoints: sql`COALESCE(excluded.projected_table_points, ${schema.seasonParticipantSimulatorInputs.projectedTablePoints})`,
           seed: sql`COALESCE(excluded.seed, ${schema.seasonParticipantSimulatorInputs.seed})`,
           region: sql`COALESCE(excluded.region, ${schema.seasonParticipantSimulatorInputs.region})`,
-          metadata: sql`COALESCE(excluded.metadata, ${schema.seasonParticipantSimulatorInputs.metadata})`,
+          // Metadata carries the method flags (sourceEloMethod/ratingMethod) that
+          // tell readers whether the stored Elo/rating is generated vs. a trusted
+          // direct value. When a caller supplies explicit metadata, use it as-is
+          // (prepareSimulatorInputsForRun and the projection importer set the
+          // correct flags). Otherwise preserve existing metadata, but drop the
+          // method flag for any column receiving a fresh direct value — otherwise a
+          // stale "generated" flag would cause that newly-entered Elo/rating to be
+          // filtered out as derived (see getParticipantSimulatorInputs).
+          metadata: sql`CASE
+            WHEN excluded.metadata IS NOT NULL THEN excluded.metadata
+            ELSE COALESCE(${schema.seasonParticipantSimulatorInputs.metadata}, '{}'::jsonb)
+              - (CASE WHEN excluded.source_elo IS NOT NULL THEN 'sourceEloMethod' ELSE '' END)
+              - (CASE WHEN excluded.rating IS NOT NULL THEN 'ratingMethod' ELSE '' END)
+          END`,
           updatedAt: sql`excluded.updated_at`,
         },
       });

app/routes/admin.sports-seasons.$id.simulator.tsx

@@ -280,14 +280,21 @@ export async function action({ request, params }: Route.ActionArgs): Promise<Act
       const saved = `Saved ${parsed.inputs.length} simulator input row(s).${suffix}`;
 
       // Auto-run the simulation so saved inputs immediately drive the standings.
-      // The save itself already succeeded, so a not-ready run (e.g. participants
+      // The save itself already succeeded, so a run that never started (e.g.
-      // missing required inputs) is reported as success with the readiness gap —
+      // participants missing required inputs) is reported as success with the
-      // never as a failed save.
+      // readiness gap — never as a failed save.
       try {
         await runSportsSeasonSimulation(sportsSeasonId);
         return redirect(`/admin/sports-seasons/${sportsSeasonId}/expected-values`);
       } catch (runError) {
         const reason = runError instanceof Error ? runError.message : "could not run.";
+        // Distinguish "saved but never ran" (readiness/already-running) from
+        // "started running and failed mid-run": the runner only flips the season
+        // to status 'failed' once the simulation itself throws.
+        const season = await findSportsSeasonById(sportsSeasonId);
+        if (season?.simulationStatus === "failed") {
+          return { success: false, message: `${saved} The simulation failed: ${reason}` };
+        }
         return { success: true, message: `${saved} Simulation not run yet: ${reason}` };
       }
     } catch (error) {