- input-policy: revert the odds->Elo change that passed the policy's
eloMin/eloMax into convertFuturesToElo. That widened the default odds-derived
spread (1100/1900 vs the calibrated 1250/1750) — sharpening favorites for
default-policy odds sims (UCL, World Cup, NCAA-FB, MLB) — and clamped the
blend of a high directly-entered base Elo down to the ceiling. Odds now use
the calibrated band; the policy's eloMin/eloMax still clamp the result
(clampDerived), so a season's floor/ceiling narrows the spread without
widening it or capping high base Elos.
- admin simulator UI: restrict the structured Engine fields to a
HONORED_ENGINE_KNOBS allowlist of keys actually read from config (by a
simulator or the input-policy resolver). Bespoke per-sim constants present in
a profile but not read from config (homeFieldElo, eloDivisor, srsEloScale,
raceNoise, plBeta, fieldSize, bracketSize, ...) no longer render as editable
controls that silently do nothing; the raw-JSON escape hatch still edits them.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01PAFMogMkFJf52YpHyCDvuf
Two problems addressed:
1. Favorites' P(1st) was too sharp (e.g. NHL top teams ~20% vs ~12% implied).
- The NHL simulator hardcoded its parity factor (1000) and ignored the
season config's parityFactor, so the knob meant to flatten the
distribution did nothing. It also re-blended raw futures odds into every
game on top of the odds->Elo conversion, double-counting the same signal.
- NHL now reads parityFactor/iterations/seasonGames/overtimeRate from config
and no longer re-blends odds per game (odds enter once, via the central
odds->Elo resolver). Honoring parity 2500 flattens a top team from ~29% to
~13% title odds.
2. "Season Config" and "Input Policy" were two forms over the same stored
object that didn't reflect each other, and the engine-knob half was inert
for many simulators.
- Every simulator now reads its engine knobs (iterations everywhere;
parityFactor for all Elo-based sims) from the merged config, passed in by
the runner via the Simulator interface. Defaults equal the former
hardcoded constants, so behavior is unchanged unless a season overrides.
- The admin simulator page is now a single "Simulator Configuration" card
with structured Engine and Input-derivation sections (profile-driven, so
each sport shows only the knobs it honors) plus an Advanced raw-JSON
escape hatch — all writing the same config.
Also: centralized the duplicated configNumber helpers into config-access.ts;
the central odds->Elo resolver now maps onto the configured Elo floor/ceiling
so those bounds set the odds-derived spread (a real flattening dial).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01PAFMogMkFJf52YpHyCDvuf
