brackt/app/services/simulations/__tests__
Chris Parsons 102cb781ad
Add NFL season + playoffs Monte Carlo simulator (#272)
Implements a new `nfl_bracket` simulator that projects the NFL regular
season and full playoff bracket using nfelo Elo ratings.

- Simulates remaining regular season games (17 total) per team using
  Elo win probability vs an average opponent, then seeds both conferences
  (division winners = seeds 1–4, wildcards = 5–7) per simulation
- Simulates Wild Card, Divisional, Conference Championship, and Super
  Bowl rounds with correct NFL bracket structure (seed 1 bye)
- Applies +48 Elo home-field advantage (~57% win rate) for all rounds
  except the neutral-site Super Bowl
- Pre-season mode (no standings in DB): simulates all 17 games from
  scratch; falls back to futures odds → Elo conversion if no sourceElo
- Validates all 8 NFL divisions have Elo-rated teams before simulating,
  with a clear error listing missing divisions
- Registers as `nfl_bracket` simulator type in the registry and schema
- Adds migration to extend the `simulator_type` enum
- Also updates drizzle.config.ts to prefer DIRECT_DATABASE_URL when set

Fixes #129

Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-04-07 09:39:34 -04:00
..
afl-simulator.test.ts Add AFL season + finals simulator (closes #126) (#204) 2026-03-22 01:57:39 -07:00
cs-major-simulator.test.ts Add CS2 Major Qualifying Points simulator and stage management (#260) 2026-04-05 16:40:05 -04:00
darts-simulator.test.ts Fix noisy and broken tests. 2026-03-31 15:53:43 -07:00
golf-simulator.test.ts Add golf qualifying points simulator (Plackett-Luce Monte Carlo) (#223) 2026-03-24 21:46:02 -07:00
mlb-simulator.test.ts Rework MLB simulator: RDif-based matchup probs, 2026 data, fixes #227 (#228) 2026-03-25 19:05:12 -07:00
ncaam-simulator.test.ts Add oxlint linting setup with zero errors (#194) 2026-03-21 09:44:05 -07:00
ncaaw-simulator.test.ts Add oxlint linting setup with zero errors (#194) 2026-03-21 09:44:05 -07:00
nfl-simulator.test.ts Add NFL season + playoffs Monte Carlo simulator (#272) 2026-04-07 09:39:34 -04:00
nhl-simulator.test.ts Tune NHL simulator: Vegas futures blending + parity factor calibration (closes #168) (#202) 2026-03-22 00:14:18 -07:00
snooker-simulator.test.ts Add snooker bracket simulator and Elo ratings admin UI, fixes #119 2026-03-23 08:24:28 -07:00
tennis-simulator.test.ts Add MLB playoff simulator with AL/NL division standings, fixes #121 (#225) 2026-03-25 08:47:02 -07:00
ucl-simulator.test.ts Fix oxlint warnings: no-shadow, consistent-function-scoping, no-non-null-assertion, and others (#196) 2026-03-21 10:59:51 -07:00
wnba-simulator.test.ts Add WNBA playoff simulator with SRS-based Elo ratings, fixes #125 (#231) 2026-03-26 00:34:51 -07:00
world-cup-simulator.test.ts Fix noisy and broken tests. 2026-03-31 15:53:43 -07:00