brackt/app/routes/admin.sports-seasons.$id.simulator.tsx
Claude 24de966b3b
Unify simulator strength on a single blended Elo
Replace the two parallel odds/Elo mechanisms with one model: every strength
source (raw Elo, projected wins, projected table points, futures odds) converts
to an Elo, those blend by weight into a single Elo, and that one Elo feeds every
simulator. This supersedes the earlier source-priority + per-match probability
blend approach.

Resolution (app/services/simulations/input-policy.ts):
- SimulatorInputPolicy gains baseEloPriority (order among the substitutable base
  sources: raw Elo / projected wins / projected table points) and oddsWeight
  (0–1). resolveSourceElos/resolveRatings now compute baseElo, derive an
  odds Elo via convertFuturesToElo, and blend: 0 = base only, 1 = futures
  override, between = weighted blend (method "blend").
- Drops the odds-inclusive sourceEloPriority and the prefersFuturesOdds helper.

Simulators consume the single resolved Elo:
- UCL, World Cup, NCAA Football, MLB drop their separate normalized-odds signal,
  convertFuturesToElo calls, and per-match probability blend; they read the
  resolved sourceElo (preserving each sim's hardcoded fallback Elo table). The
  optional SimulationContext oddsWeight plumbing (types.ts/runner.ts) is removed.
- UCL is routed through the central blend (requiredInputs sourceElo, derivable
  from sourceOdds) so any entered Elo and futures blend uniformly.
- College hockey already blends odds into Elo internally (and uses NPI rank the
  central resolver can't), so its central oddsWeight is set to 0 to avoid
  double-counting; the simulator is unchanged.

Manifest: per-profile oddsWeight defaults (World Cup/UCL/MLB 0.3, NCAA FB 0.4,
college hockey 0; global default 0.3).

UI: the Input Policy card exposes one "Futures vs. Elo — Odds Blend Weight"
control; the /admin/simulators inventory badge shows the effective blend
("Elo only" / "NN% blend" / "overrides Elo") with the odds participant count.

Tests: input-policy blend math (0/0.5/1) for Elo and ratings, baseEloPriority
and oddsWeight parsing/clamping, manifest per-profile weights; obsolete
source-priority and oddsWeight-context tests removed/replaced.

Note: this intentionally shifts the calibrated EV outputs of the four sims that
previously blended at the probability level (accepted in design discussion).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01QhNeB7gN6VKene7sdbBVQT
2026-06-26 01:39:12 +00:00

533 lines
24 KiB
TypeScript
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import { Form, Link, redirect, useActionData, useNavigation } from "react-router";
import type { Route } from "./+types/admin.sports-seasons.$id.simulator";
import { AlertCircle, ArrowLeft, CheckCircle2, Loader2, Play, Save, SlidersHorizontal } from "lucide-react";
import { Badge } from "~/components/ui/badge";
import { Button } from "~/components/ui/button";
import { Input } from "~/components/ui/input";
import { Label } from "~/components/ui/label";
import {
Card,
CardContent,
CardDescription,
CardHeader,
CardTitle,
} from "~/components/ui/card";
import { Textarea } from "~/components/ui/textarea";
import { findParticipantsBySportsSeasonId } from "~/models/season-participant";
import { findSportsSeasonById } from "~/models/sports-season";
import {
batchUpsertParticipantSimulatorInputs,
getParticipantSimulatorInputs,
getSportsSeasonSimulatorConfig,
upsertSportsSeasonSimulatorConfig,
validateSimulatorReadiness,
type UpsertParticipantSimulatorInput,
} from "~/models/simulator";
import { normalizeName } from "~/lib/fuzzy-match";
import {
getSimulatorInputPolicy,
type MissingEloStrategy,
type MissingRatingStrategy,
} from "~/services/simulations/input-policy";
import { runSportsSeasonSimulation } from "~/services/simulations/runner";
export function meta({ data }: Route.MetaArgs): Route.MetaDescriptors {
return [{ title: `Simulator Setup - ${data?.sportsSeason?.name ?? "Sports Season"} - Brackt Admin` }];
}
export async function loader({ params }: Route.LoaderArgs) {
const sportsSeason = await findSportsSeasonById(params.id);
if (!sportsSeason) {
throw new Response("Sports season not found", { status: 404 });
}
const [participants, config, inputs, readiness] = await Promise.all([
findParticipantsBySportsSeasonId(params.id),
getSportsSeasonSimulatorConfig(params.id),
getParticipantSimulatorInputs(params.id),
validateSimulatorReadiness(params.id),
]);
if (!config) {
throw new Response("This sports season does not have a simulator configured.", { status: 404 });
}
const inputMap = new Map(inputs.map((input) => [input.participantId, input]));
const inputRows = participants.map((participant) => ({
participant,
input: inputMap.get(participant.id) ?? null,
}));
const inputPolicy = getSimulatorInputPolicy(config.config);
return { sportsSeason, participants, config, inputRows, readiness, inputPolicy };
}
interface ActionData {
success?: boolean;
message: string;
}
function parseOptionalNumber(value: string | undefined): number | null {
if (value === undefined || value.trim() === "") return null;
const parsed = Number(value);
return Number.isFinite(parsed) ? parsed : null;
}
function parsePolicyNumber(formData: FormData, key: string, fallback: number): number {
const value = formData.get(key);
if (typeof value !== "string" || value.trim() === "") return fallback;
const parsed = Number(value);
return Number.isFinite(parsed) ? parsed : fallback;
}
function parseMissingEloStrategy(value: FormDataEntryValue | null): MissingEloStrategy {
return value === "fallbackElo" || value === "averageKnown" || value === "worstKnownMinus"
? value
: "block";
}
function parseMissingRatingStrategy(value: FormDataEntryValue | null): MissingRatingStrategy {
return value === "fallbackRating" || value === "averageKnown" || value === "worstKnownMinus"
? value
: "block";
}
function findParticipantId(name: string, participants: Array<{ id: string; name: string }>): string | null {
const normalizedInput = normalizeName(name);
const normalized = participants.map((participant) => ({
participant,
normalized: normalizeName(participant.name),
}));
return (
normalized.find((candidate) => candidate.normalized === normalizedInput)?.participant.id ??
normalized.find((candidate) =>
candidate.normalized.includes(normalizedInput) || normalizedInput.includes(candidate.normalized)
)?.participant.id ??
null
);
}
function parseInputCsv(
text: string,
sportsSeasonId: string,
participants: Array<{ id: string; name: string }>
): { inputs: UpsertParticipantSimulatorInput[]; unmatched: string[] } {
const lines = text.split(/\r?\n/).map((line) => line.trim()).filter(Boolean);
if (lines.length === 0) return { inputs: [], unmatched: [] };
const header = lines[0].split(",").map((value) => value.trim());
const indexes = new Map(header.map((value, index) => [value, index]));
const nameIndex = indexes.get("name");
if (nameIndex === undefined) {
throw new Error("Bulk input CSV must include a `name` column.");
}
const inputs: UpsertParticipantSimulatorInput[] = [];
const unmatched: string[] = [];
for (const line of lines.slice(1)) {
const cols = line.split(",").map((value) => value.trim());
const name = cols[nameIndex];
if (!name) continue;
const participantId = findParticipantId(name, participants);
if (!participantId) {
unmatched.push(name);
continue;
}
inputs.push({
participantId,
sportsSeasonId,
sourceElo: parseOptionalNumber(cols[indexes.get("sourceElo") ?? -1]) ?? undefined,
sourceOdds: parseOptionalNumber(cols[indexes.get("sourceOdds") ?? -1]) ?? undefined,
worldRanking: parseOptionalNumber(cols[indexes.get("worldRanking") ?? -1]) ?? undefined,
rating: parseOptionalNumber(cols[indexes.get("rating") ?? -1]) ?? undefined,
projectedWins: parseOptionalNumber(cols[indexes.get("projectedWins") ?? -1]) ?? undefined,
projectedTablePoints: parseOptionalNumber(cols[indexes.get("projectedTablePoints") ?? -1]) ?? undefined,
seed: parseOptionalNumber(cols[indexes.get("seed") ?? -1]) ?? undefined,
region: cols[indexes.get("region") ?? -1] || undefined,
});
}
return { inputs, unmatched };
}
export async function action({ request, params }: Route.ActionArgs): Promise<ActionData | Response> {
const formData = await request.formData();
const intent = formData.get("intent");
const sportsSeasonId = params.id;
if (intent === "run") {
try {
await runSportsSeasonSimulation(sportsSeasonId);
return redirect(`/admin/sports-seasons/${sportsSeasonId}/expected-values`);
} catch (error) {
return { success: false, message: error instanceof Error ? error.message : "Simulation failed." };
}
}
if (intent === "save-config") {
const rawConfig = formData.get("config");
const currentConfig = await getSportsSeasonSimulatorConfig(sportsSeasonId);
if (!currentConfig) return { success: false, message: "Simulator config not found." };
try {
const parsed = typeof rawConfig === "string" && rawConfig.trim()
? JSON.parse(rawConfig) as Record<string, unknown>
: {};
// Preserve an existing inputPolicy if the submitted JSON omits it, so
// editing other config keys doesn't silently wipe a previously configured
// missing-Elo strategy.
const config = "inputPolicy" in parsed
? parsed
: { ...parsed, ...(currentConfig.config.inputPolicy !== undefined ? { inputPolicy: currentConfig.config.inputPolicy } : {}) };
await upsertSportsSeasonSimulatorConfig({
sportsSeasonId,
simulatorType: currentConfig.simulatorType,
config,
});
return { success: true, message: "Simulator config saved." };
} catch (error) {
return { success: false, message: error instanceof Error ? error.message : "Invalid config JSON." };
}
}
if (intent === "save-input-policy") {
const currentConfig = await getSportsSeasonSimulatorConfig(sportsSeasonId);
if (!currentConfig) return { success: false, message: "Simulator config not found." };
const currentPolicy = getSimulatorInputPolicy(currentConfig.config);
await upsertSportsSeasonSimulatorConfig({
sportsSeasonId,
simulatorType: currentConfig.simulatorType,
config: {
...currentConfig.config,
inputPolicy: {
missingEloStrategy: parseMissingEloStrategy(formData.get("missingEloStrategy")),
missingRatingStrategy: parseMissingRatingStrategy(formData.get("missingRatingStrategy")),
// Stored as-is; getSimulatorInputPolicy clamps to [0,1] on read.
oddsWeight: parsePolicyNumber(formData, "oddsWeight", currentPolicy.oddsWeight),
fallbackElo: parsePolicyNumber(formData, "fallbackElo", currentPolicy.fallbackElo),
fallbackEloDelta: parsePolicyNumber(formData, "fallbackEloDelta", currentPolicy.fallbackEloDelta),
eloMin: parsePolicyNumber(formData, "eloMin", currentPolicy.eloMin),
eloMax: parsePolicyNumber(formData, "eloMax", currentPolicy.eloMax),
fallbackRating: parsePolicyNumber(formData, "fallbackRating", currentPolicy.fallbackRating),
fallbackRatingDelta: parsePolicyNumber(formData, "fallbackRatingDelta", currentPolicy.fallbackRatingDelta),
ratingMin: parsePolicyNumber(formData, "ratingMin", currentPolicy.ratingMin),
ratingMax: parsePolicyNumber(formData, "ratingMax", currentPolicy.ratingMax),
},
},
});
return { success: true, message: "Simulator input policy saved." };
}
if (intent === "save-inputs") {
const rawInputs = formData.get("bulkInputs");
if (typeof rawInputs !== "string" || rawInputs.trim() === "") {
return { success: false, message: "Paste at least one input row before saving." };
}
const participants = await findParticipantsBySportsSeasonId(sportsSeasonId);
try {
const parsed = parseInputCsv(rawInputs, sportsSeasonId, participants);
if (parsed.inputs.length === 0) {
return { success: false, message: "No matching participants found in the pasted inputs." };
}
await batchUpsertParticipantSimulatorInputs(parsed.inputs);
const suffix = parsed.unmatched.length > 0
? ` ${parsed.unmatched.length} row(s) were unmatched: ${parsed.unmatched.join(", ")}.`
: "";
return { success: true, message: `Saved ${parsed.inputs.length} simulator input row(s).${suffix}` };
} catch (error) {
return { success: false, message: error instanceof Error ? error.message : "Failed to save simulator inputs." };
}
}
return { success: false, message: "Unknown simulator setup action." };
}
export default function AdminSportsSeasonSimulator({ loaderData }: Route.ComponentProps) {
const { sportsSeason, config, inputRows, readiness, inputPolicy } = loaderData;
const actionData = useActionData<ActionData>();
const navigation = useNavigation();
const isSubmitting = navigation.state === "submitting";
const setupSections = config.profile.setupSections;
const sourceEloAlternatives = config.profile.derivableInputs?.sourceElo ?? [];
const ratingAlternatives = config.profile.derivableInputs?.rating ?? [];
const showsInputPolicy =
config.profile.requiredInputs.includes("sourceElo") || config.profile.requiredInputs.includes("rating");
return (
<div className="container mx-auto p-6 space-y-6">
<div className="flex items-center gap-4">
<Button variant="ghost" size="sm" asChild>
<Link to={`/admin/sports-seasons/${sportsSeason.id}`}>
<ArrowLeft className="h-4 w-4 mr-2" />
Back to Sports Season
</Link>
</Button>
<Button variant="ghost" size="sm" asChild>
<Link to="/admin/simulators">All Simulators</Link>
</Button>
</div>
<div>
<h1 className="text-3xl font-bold flex items-center gap-2">
<SlidersHorizontal className="h-7 w-7" />
Simulator Setup
</h1>
<p className="text-muted-foreground mt-1">
{sportsSeason.sport.name} - {sportsSeason.name}
</p>
</div>
{actionData && (
<Card className={actionData.success ? "border-emerald-500/40" : "border-destructive/40"}>
<CardContent className="py-4 text-sm">{actionData.message}</CardContent>
</Card>
)}
<Card>
<CardHeader>
<div className="flex items-center justify-between gap-4">
<div>
<CardTitle>{config.profile.displayName}</CardTitle>
<CardDescription>{config.profile.description}</CardDescription>
</div>
{readiness.status === "ready" ? (
<Badge className="gap-1"><CheckCircle2 className="h-3 w-3" /> Ready</Badge>
) : (
<Badge variant="secondary" className="gap-1"><AlertCircle className="h-3 w-3" /> Needs setup</Badge>
)}
</div>
</CardHeader>
<CardContent className="space-y-4">
<div className="grid gap-3 md:grid-cols-3">
<div className="rounded-md border p-3">
<div className="text-sm text-muted-foreground">Simulator Type</div>
<code className="text-sm">{config.simulatorType}</code>
</div>
<div className="rounded-md border p-3">
<div className="text-sm text-muted-foreground">Participant Inputs</div>
<div className="font-medium">{readiness.participantInputCount}/{readiness.participantCount}</div>
</div>
<div className="rounded-md border p-3">
<div className="text-sm text-muted-foreground">Simulation Status</div>
<div className="font-medium">{sportsSeason.simulationStatus}</div>
</div>
</div>
{readiness.missingInputs.length > 0 && (
<div className="rounded-md border border-amber-500/30 bg-amber-500/10 p-3 text-sm">
Missing: {readiness.missingInputs.join(", ")}
</div>
)}
{readiness.warnings.length > 0 && (
<div className="rounded-md border border-sky-500/30 bg-sky-500/10 p-3 text-sm">
{readiness.warnings.join(" ")}
</div>
)}
<div className="flex flex-wrap gap-2">
{setupSections.includes("futuresOdds") && <Button variant="outline" size="sm" asChild><Link to={`/admin/sports-seasons/${sportsSeason.id}/futures-odds`}>Futures Odds</Link></Button>}
{setupSections.includes("eloRatings") && <Button variant="outline" size="sm" asChild><Link to={`/admin/sports-seasons/${sportsSeason.id}/elo-ratings`}>Elo Ratings</Link></Button>}
{setupSections.includes("surfaceElo") && <Button variant="outline" size="sm" asChild><Link to={`/admin/sports-seasons/${sportsSeason.id}/surface-elo`}>Surface Elo</Link></Button>}
{setupSections.includes("golfSkills") && <Button variant="outline" size="sm" asChild><Link to={`/admin/sports-seasons/${sportsSeason.id}/golf-skills`}>Golf Skills</Link></Button>}
{setupSections.includes("regularStandings") && <Button variant="outline" size="sm" asChild><Link to={`/admin/sports-seasons/${sportsSeason.id}/regular-standings`}>Regular Standings</Link></Button>}
{setupSections.includes("events") && <Button variant="outline" size="sm" asChild><Link to={`/admin/sports-seasons/${sportsSeason.id}/events`}>Events</Link></Button>}
<Button variant="outline" size="sm" asChild><Link to={`/admin/sports-seasons/${sportsSeason.id}/expected-values`}>Expected Values</Link></Button>
</div>
<Form method="post">
<input type="hidden" name="intent" value="run" />
<Button type="submit" disabled={!readiness.canRun || sportsSeason.simulationStatus === "running" || isSubmitting}>
{isSubmitting ? <Loader2 className="mr-2 h-4 w-4 animate-spin" /> : <Play className="mr-2 h-4 w-4" />}
Run Simulation
</Button>
</Form>
</CardContent>
</Card>
{showsInputPolicy && (
<Card>
<CardHeader>
<CardTitle>Input Policy</CardTitle>
<CardDescription>
Direct inputs win. This simulator can derive Elo from{" "}
{sourceEloAlternatives.length > 0 ? sourceEloAlternatives.join(", ") : "no alternate Elo inputs"}
{ratingAlternatives.length > 0 ? ` and ratings from ${ratingAlternatives.join(", ")}` : ""}.
Tail fallbacks are explicit so low-impact missing participants do not silently get invented ratings.
</CardDescription>
</CardHeader>
<CardContent>
<Form method="post" className="grid gap-4 md:grid-cols-5">
<input type="hidden" name="intent" value="save-input-policy" />
<div className="space-y-2 md:col-span-5">
<Label htmlFor="oddsWeight">Futures vs. Elo Odds Blend Weight (01)</Label>
<Input id="oddsWeight" name="oddsWeight" type="number" step="0.05" min="0" max="1" defaultValue={inputPolicy.oddsWeight} />
<p className="text-xs text-muted-foreground">
Every source (raw Elo, projections, futures odds) becomes an Elo, then they blend into
the single Elo that feeds the simulator. This is the weight given to futures odds:
<strong> 0</strong> = Elo / projections only, <strong>1</strong> = futures fully override,
in between = blend (e.g. 0.3 = 70% Elo / 30% futures).
</p>
</div>
{config.profile.requiredInputs.includes("sourceElo") && (
<>
<div className="space-y-2 md:col-span-2">
<Label htmlFor="missingEloStrategy">Missing Elo Strategy</Label>
<select
id="missingEloStrategy"
name="missingEloStrategy"
className="h-9 w-full rounded-md border bg-background px-3 text-sm"
defaultValue={inputPolicy.missingEloStrategy}
>
<option value="block">Block until complete</option>
<option value="fallbackElo">Use fixed fallback Elo</option>
<option value="averageKnown">Use average known Elo</option>
<option value="worstKnownMinus">Use worst known Elo minus delta</option>
</select>
</div>
<div className="space-y-2">
<Label htmlFor="fallbackElo">Fallback Elo</Label>
<Input id="fallbackElo" name="fallbackElo" type="number" defaultValue={inputPolicy.fallbackElo} />
</div>
<div className="space-y-2">
<Label htmlFor="fallbackEloDelta">Worst Elo Delta</Label>
<Input id="fallbackEloDelta" name="fallbackEloDelta" type="number" defaultValue={inputPolicy.fallbackEloDelta} />
</div>
<div className="space-y-2">
<Label htmlFor="eloMin">Elo Floor</Label>
<Input id="eloMin" name="eloMin" type="number" defaultValue={inputPolicy.eloMin} />
</div>
<div className="space-y-2">
<Label htmlFor="eloMax">Elo Ceiling</Label>
<Input id="eloMax" name="eloMax" type="number" defaultValue={inputPolicy.eloMax} />
</div>
</>
)}
{config.profile.requiredInputs.includes("rating") && (
<>
<div className="space-y-2 md:col-span-2">
<Label htmlFor="missingRatingStrategy">Missing Rating Strategy</Label>
<select
id="missingRatingStrategy"
name="missingRatingStrategy"
className="h-9 w-full rounded-md border bg-background px-3 text-sm"
defaultValue={inputPolicy.missingRatingStrategy}
>
<option value="block">Block until complete</option>
<option value="fallbackRating">Use fixed fallback rating</option>
<option value="averageKnown">Use average known rating</option>
<option value="worstKnownMinus">Use worst known rating minus delta</option>
</select>
</div>
<div className="space-y-2">
<Label htmlFor="fallbackRating">Fallback Rating</Label>
<Input id="fallbackRating" name="fallbackRating" type="number" step="0.01" defaultValue={inputPolicy.fallbackRating} />
</div>
<div className="space-y-2">
<Label htmlFor="fallbackRatingDelta">Worst Rating Delta</Label>
<Input id="fallbackRatingDelta" name="fallbackRatingDelta" type="number" step="0.01" defaultValue={inputPolicy.fallbackRatingDelta} />
</div>
</>
)}
<div className="space-y-2">
<Label htmlFor="ratingMin">Rating Floor</Label>
<Input id="ratingMin" name="ratingMin" type="number" step="0.01" defaultValue={inputPolicy.ratingMin} />
</div>
<div className="space-y-2">
<Label htmlFor="ratingMax">Rating Ceiling</Label>
<Input id="ratingMax" name="ratingMax" type="number" step="0.01" defaultValue={inputPolicy.ratingMax} />
</div>
<div className="md:col-span-5">
<Button type="submit" disabled={isSubmitting}>
<Save className="mr-2 h-4 w-4" />
Save Input Policy
</Button>
</div>
</Form>
</CardContent>
</Card>
)}
<Card>
<CardHeader>
<CardTitle>Season Config</CardTitle>
<CardDescription>
JSON overrides for this specific sports season. Defaults come from the simulator profile.
</CardDescription>
</CardHeader>
<CardContent>
<Form method="post" className="space-y-4">
<input type="hidden" name="intent" value="save-config" />
<Textarea
name="config"
rows={10}
className="font-mono text-sm"
defaultValue={JSON.stringify(config.config, null, 2)}
/>
<Button type="submit" disabled={isSubmitting}>
<Save className="mr-2 h-4 w-4" />
Save Config
</Button>
</Form>
</CardContent>
</Card>
<Card>
<CardHeader>
<CardTitle>Bulk Simulator Inputs</CardTitle>
<CardDescription>
Paste CSV with a header row. Supported columns: name, sourceElo, sourceOdds, worldRanking, rating,
projectedWins, projectedTablePoints, seed, region. Values must not contain commas.
</CardDescription>
</CardHeader>
<CardContent className="space-y-4">
<Form method="post" className="space-y-4">
<input type="hidden" name="intent" value="save-inputs" />
<Textarea
name="bulkInputs"
rows={8}
className="font-mono text-sm"
placeholder={`name,sourceElo,sourceOdds,worldRanking,rating\n${inputRows[0]?.participant.name ?? "Team Name"},1500,+2500,12,28.5`}
/>
<Button type="submit" disabled={isSubmitting}>
<Save className="mr-2 h-4 w-4" />
Save Inputs
</Button>
</Form>
<div className="rounded-md border">
<div className="grid grid-cols-6 gap-2 border-b px-3 py-2 text-xs font-medium text-muted-foreground">
<div className="col-span-2">Participant</div>
<div>Elo</div>
<div>Odds</div>
<div>Rank</div>
<div>Rating</div>
</div>
{inputRows.slice(0, 20).map(({ participant, input }) => (
<div key={participant.id} className="grid grid-cols-6 gap-2 border-b last:border-b-0 px-3 py-2 text-sm">
<div className="col-span-2 font-medium">{participant.name}</div>
<div>{input?.sourceElo ?? "—"}</div>
<div>{input?.sourceOdds ?? "—"}</div>
<div>{input?.worldRanking ?? "—"}</div>
<div>{input?.rating ?? "—"}</div>
</div>
))}
{inputRows.length > 20 && (
<div className="px-3 py-2 text-xs text-muted-foreground">
Showing 20 of {inputRows.length} participants
</div>
)}
</div>
</CardContent>
</Card>
</div>
);
}