brackt/app/services/simulations
Chris Parsons 4d5fea05ab
Add NCAA Football CFP simulator (12-team bracket) (#278)
Fixes #124

* Add NCAA Football CFP simulator (12-team bracket)

Implements a Monte Carlo simulator for the College Football Playoff using
the 2024-present 12-team format. Elo/FPI ratings are entered manually via
the existing admin Elo Ratings page; championship futures odds can
optionally be blended in (60% Elo / 40% odds).

- Add CFP_12 bracket template (First Round not scoring, QFs onward score)
- Add generateCFP12Bracket() with correct seeding: 5v12, 6v11, 7v10, 8v9
  in First Round; seeds 1–4 receive QF byes
- Add NCAAFootballSimulator: 50k Monte Carlo sims, seeds teams by blended
  Elo+odds strength, tracks champion/finalist/SF/QF placement tiers
- Register ncaa_football_bracket simulator type in registry and schema enum
- Add migration 0071: ALTER TYPE simulator_type ADD VALUE 'ncaa_football_bracket'
- Add tests: 30 tests covering bracket template structure and simulator
  probability distributions, seeding, edge cases, futures blending

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* Fix lint errors in NCAA Football CFP simulator

Replace non-null assertions with optional chaining, change let to const,
use toSorted() instead of sort(), and add a bump() helper to avoid
repeated map lookups with non-null assertions in simulateBracket.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* Fix TS2345 in NCAA football simulator test

Add ?? 0 fallback so optional-chained probFirst is number, not number | undefined.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

---------

Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-04-08 09:48:32 -04:00
..
__tests__ Add NCAA Football CFP simulator (12-team bracket) (#278) 2026-04-08 09:48:32 -04:00
afl-simulator.ts Add AFL season + finals simulator (closes #126) (#204) 2026-03-22 01:57:39 -07:00
auto-racing-simulator.ts Fix oxlint warnings: no-shadow, consistent-function-scoping, no-non-null-assertion, and others (#196) 2026-03-21 10:59:51 -07:00
bracket-simulator.ts Fix oxlint warnings: no-shadow, consistent-function-scoping, no-non-null-assertion, and others (#196) 2026-03-21 10:59:51 -07:00
cs-major-simulator.ts Fix CS Major simulator bugs and accuracy issues (#276) 2026-04-07 17:28:24 -04:00
darts-simulator.ts Add PDC World Darts Championship simulator with Elo-based bracket (#248) 2026-03-31 15:37:28 -07:00
golf-simulator.ts Add golf qualifying points simulator (Plackett-Luce Monte Carlo) (#223) 2026-03-24 21:46:02 -07:00
mlb-simulator.ts Rework MLB simulator: RDif-based matchup probs, 2026 data, fixes #227 (#228) 2026-03-25 19:05:12 -07:00
nba-simulator.ts Simulate NBA remaining regular season games from standings (#201) 2026-03-21 23:37:20 -07:00
ncaa-football-simulator.ts Add NCAA Football CFP simulator (12-team bracket) (#278) 2026-04-08 09:48:32 -04:00
ncaam-simulator.ts Replace console.* with structured logger, fix no-inferrable-types (closes #98) (#199) 2026-03-21 13:41:39 -07:00
ncaaw-simulator.ts Replace console.* with structured logger, fix no-inferrable-types (closes #98) (#199) 2026-03-21 13:41:39 -07:00
nfl-simulator.ts Add NFL season + playoffs Monte Carlo simulator (#272) 2026-04-07 09:39:34 -04:00
nhl-simulator.ts Tune NHL simulator: Vegas futures blending + parity factor calibration (closes #168) (#202) 2026-03-22 00:14:18 -07:00
registry.ts Add NCAA Football CFP simulator (12-team bracket) (#278) 2026-04-08 09:48:32 -04:00
snooker-simulator.ts Add snooker bracket simulator and Elo ratings admin UI, fixes #119 2026-03-23 08:24:28 -07:00
tennis-simulator.ts Add tennis Grand Slam simulator with surface Elo ratings, fixes #116 (#216) 2026-03-23 23:59:35 -07:00
types.ts User/chris/ev f1 framework (#93) 2026-03-09 15:34:31 -07:00
ucl-simulator.ts Fix oxlint warnings: no-shadow, consistent-function-scoping, no-non-null-assertion, and others (#196) 2026-03-21 10:59:51 -07:00
wnba-simulator.ts Add WNBA playoff simulator with SRS-based Elo ratings, fixes #125 (#231) 2026-03-26 00:34:51 -07:00
world-cup-simulator.ts Add FIFA World Cup 2026 support with group stage display and Monte Carlo simulator (#242) 2026-03-29 10:27:47 -07:00