With the actual PDC field (top players clustered 1800–1970 Elo, Littler at
~2080), ELO_DIVISOR=400 made the gap between world #1 and the top 8 too
soft — EV for Littler came out ~37 instead of the expected 65–70.
ELO_DIVISOR=200 calibrates correctly for this field: a 100-pt gap now
gives ~62% per-set win probability (vs ~56% at 400), sharply rewarding
the best players while still allowing upsets. Littler at 2084 produces
EV ≈ 65–70 against the real PDC tour roster.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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